I understand that the premise we’re supposed to accept is that Trump somehow remains President. But it’s a premise that really needs some details. How is Trump remaining President? Is he just declaring that he’s President?
If I declare I am President of the United States, nobody is going to take my declaration very seriously. And if I said that anybody who doesn’t take my presidency seriously will be killed because I will order the Army to shoot them and the Army will obey my orders because I am the President, nobody would take that very seriously either.
The question isn’t whether Trump declares he’s still President. The question is whether anyone else listens to him when he declares himself President. And if some people listen, how many of them? I can’t imagine any scenario in which Trump declares he’s President and he gets more than a few million people to believe him. And those few million people will not be the movers and shakers of this country.
I’m assuming this is sarcasm and you’re actually making the opposite point. Because I agree that one tank or one plane can’t conquer the United States. If it could, the Russians or the Chinese or the Luxembourgers would have taken over the country long before now.
It would require the cooperation of loyalists within the military.
But you are not currently the president. You are not able to fire those who would oppose you and appoint those who will support you.
Until of course, the generals that you have put into place actually carry out those orders.
Secretary of defense, Joint Chiefs of staff, Admirals and generals who have not been fired. How much of the military chain of command do you think is needed? How much do you think has already been compromised?
If you don’t think that those he has appointed to various positions within the military will stay loyal, fine. But then he wouldn’t somehow remain president, and you are just fighting the hypothetical at this point.
The question is not “Will he?” The question is, “He has done so, what happens next?” It is useful to answer the question of, “How did he do so?”, but stating that he couldn’t isn’t very useful to this thread, IMHO.
If Trump remains president illegally it will be nightmarish. Sectarian violence, especially in a country with the armed populace we have and the incentives foreign powers have to exacerbate the issue, is a horrific thought.
My thought when writing the OP was not so much about a military coup or simply refusing to vacate the Oval Office, but that he turns the election results through quasi-legal means. Say he gets a court to invalidate all mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia, and the SCOTUS backs him up. Something along those lines, where he can actually make a legal claim to the office, even if it’s clearly a sham.
But I’m enjoying the conversation, so any and all hypotheticals are welcome here.
What I am saying, is if Trump can get a very small amount of people to disregard their oath and support him – that tiny show of force will dissuade almost any future resistance. Even if HE knows he could never pull it off again, the protesters don’t know that. I am saying that Trump doesn’t have to hold the entire military, he just has to appear to do so with a very small show of force.
That is why I added the non military option. If he can convince a water dropping fire suppression aircraft to drop something as innocent as water – BUT, he gets the Air Force to allow it into the no-fly zone around the White House, even that would discourage future resistance.
My theoretical assumes the rest of the military stands down (or doesn’t know about this event until it happens and are as unaware as everyone else). Then Trump would have to squash any communication of descent from the rest of the military.
If ten people will let him show force and no one contradicts that show of force – for all intents and purposes he controls the entire military and is not afraid to use it against his own people (mostly in Blue states). It seems unlikely ordinary citizens will risk making any kind of stand against those odds.
It also seems likely that within weeks very high ranking military leaders who know each other will cooperate to take Trump out of power and throw his sorry ass into Federal prison. But by then of course, the damage is done to all of our cherished institutions of government.
If this attempted coup is successful, then this is no longer the country I agreed to support and defend. It just becomes another country on a list of many I will consider living in.
Well, theoretically, yes. But is that ever going to happen? If ten Canadian soldiers crossed the border and no one did anything to offer any resistance then Canada would have conquered the United States. But is there any plausible scenario where the entire country just gives up and lays down before the power of ten soldiers? Or one tank or one plane?
Right, this is what I’m thinking as well - that the OP is stipulating a scenario whereby Trump actually has some legal (or semi-legal) claim to the presidency, thereby giving his claim far more substance. He can have the Supreme Court doing his dirty work for him.
So if the key swing states like Pennsylvania are prevented from certifying their votes and it goes to the House of Representatives, whereby Republicans prevail 26 state delegations to 24…well, Trump would have a strong veneer of legitimacy indeed.
In such a scenario, I expect a lot of rioting all the way up to and past Inauguration Day, but it would die down within weeks or months.
Nemo, no disrespect, but I think you are being deliberately pedantic and difficult. A foreign country trying to invade, and a government putting down a crowd of protesters, is totally different.
By having a tank crush ten protesters Tienanmen style, the Trump government would be sending a huge deterrence message to any other protesters.
I won’t say that it can’t possibly happen, but I will say that in my experience as a veteran and former U.S. Navy officer, that there is a great deal of institutional resistance to the U.S. military being used for domestic political purposes or against protestors.
I believe that members of the U.S. military take this oath to the Constitution quite seriously. And members of the military up and down the chain of command are taught what constitutes an illegal order. Finally, complying with an illegal order would result in sanctions for the officer giving the order and anyone following the order. Every service member is taught that, “I was just following orders” doesn’t cut it.
The problem is that Trump’s case is so weak. Have you seen the lawsuits he’s filing to challenge the election results? They’re nonsense. His lawyers are filing claims based on things like a self-appointed election monitor wasn’t allowed to watch the voting so the entire state’s ballots should be thrown out. Or a guy says he was standing in a post office and he heard a postal employee saying he was tossing out ballots so all of the mail-in ballots for that state should be thrown out. Trump’s lawsuits are so ridiculous they’re being dismissed without even getting a hearing. These are legal arguments at a level you usually only see from sovereign citizens.
Yes, but the OP already said that “there is a 0.001% chance” that Trump prevails. So this is fighting the hypothetical.
He is asking, “In the extremely unlikely event that Trump prevails, what will happen?” So there is no need to contest the extemely-low odds - the OP already acknowledges and concedes that the odds are low.
I feel I’m injecting a note of realism into the conversation.
Trump does not have the kind of control over the armed forces that would allow him to order them to attack Americans and have those orders obeyed. Sure, he might find a handful of soldiers who would blindly obey his orders but the overwhelming majority of the armed forces would refuse to obey illegal orders and would refuse to support any soldiers who did start shooting people.
If Trump managed to get one crew to drive a tank through a crowd of protestors the result would not be the entire country surrendering. The result would be an armored battalion would be sent in from the closest military base and the Trump tank would be ordered to surrender and be destroyed. And an hour later, Acting President Pence will be addressing the nation about how Trump had a mental breakdown and has been taken into custody. Because the generals and soldiers who decide to be loyal to Donald Trump will be outnumbered a hundredfold by the generals and soldiers who decide to be loyal to the United States Constitution.