# What will happen to Cuba when Castro dies? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 9, 2003, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-to-cuba-when-castro-dies/218023 "2003-12-09T22:02:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![SentientMeat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/43a26b/32.png) [@SentientMeat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SentientMeat)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2003, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-to-cuba-when-castro-dies/218023/21 "2003-12-10T15:00:21Z")
> [@](#): > > Mr. Bacardi), and his friends in Miami have organized a provisional government, which will take over when the old bastard (Castro) goes to hell at last! Note that the Bacardi/Bosch family are [no strangers to terrorism](http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,646835,00.html) themselves. ---
**Author:** ![Chicago\_Faucet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chicago_faucet/32/13910_2.png) [@Chicago\_Faucet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chicago_Faucet)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2003, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-to-cuba-when-castro-dies/218023/22 "2003-12-10T15:04:14Z")
Speaking of resources, but of the human kind. What a coincidence. Just this morning, on NPR, there was a story about how Cuba is worried that they are going to suffer from a brain-drain. Recently, Cuba signed a deal with Venezuela. Cuba is sending a lot of highly qualified doctors and technical engineers to Venezuela, in exchange for extremely cheap oil. The rate is something like 11,000 Cubans a month are being emigrated to Venezuela from Cuba. The local citizens of Venezuela are treating these people as outsiders, for good reason. The Cubans are forbidden to fraternize with the locals, and hold diplomatic visas. There was also speculation that this was a political move by the leader of Venezuela, whose name I currently forget, to skew the population percentage, in order to effect elections. Other than that, all I know about Cuba is that the exiles/refuges in Florida have a standing reservation for some stadium in Miami to hold a celebration when Castro does actually die. ---
**Author:** ![bayonet1976](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/77aa72/32.png) [@bayonet1976](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bayonet1976)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2003, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-to-cuba-when-castro-dies/218023/23 "2003-12-10T15:12:27Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Mehitabel \* > \*\*One of my Dad’s best friends, American-born but with a Cuban mother, is legally allowed to go there to visit relatives. > > However, he went through Mexico anyway to be with his buddies, who were railfans checking out the old equipment running there and had to do the third-country thing. :)\*\* In that case he probably visited my hometown of [Güines](http://www.tejeratrans.com/guin-esp.html) , site of the first railroad line in Cuba, 1838. > [@](#): > > **bayonet1976** , I’m glad you’re on this board; I always like your stuff and it’s invaluable to have input from a genuine Cuban. So, if Raul is Castro’s designated successor, who’s after him? Does Castro have sons (I think his illegitimate daughter has fled to America)? \*\* Thanks! Castro has, by most accounts, a number of sons and daughters. One of them, Alejandro, attended Lenin school in the mid 70’s with me, he was a “unofficial” son, but was always accompanied by at least one bodyguard. There really isn’t any order of succession in Cuba beyond Raul Castro. The main reason is that Castro is extremely paranoid, and anytime someone in the government appears to be gaining some popular appeal they are quickly removed. For example General Ochoa, who lead the Cuban invasion of Angola, was executed upon his return. A less drastic and more recent purge was lead by the removal of young charismatic Rene Robaine, who I think was Cuba’s foreign minister. Castro does have an “official” son, Fidel Castro, who has some visibility in the government. But he’s certainly not a popular icon. ---
**Author:** ![bayonet1976](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/77aa72/32.png) [@bayonet1976](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bayonet1976)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2003, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-to-cuba-when-castro-dies/218023/24 "2003-12-10T15:21:46Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by SentientMeat \* > \*\*Note that the Bacardi/Bosch family are [no strangers to terrorism](http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,646835,00.html) themselves. \*\* I fail to see how that article links the Bacardis to Bosch, or to terrorism. Would you mind pointing it out? ---
**Author:** ![bayonet1976](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/77aa72/32.png) [@bayonet1976](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bayonet1976)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2003, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-to-cuba-when-castro-dies/218023/25 "2003-12-10T15:25:35Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Chicago Faucet \* > \*\*Other than that, all I know about Cuba is that the exiles/refuges in Florida have a standing reservation for some stadium in Miami to hold a celebration when Castro does actually die. \*\* Hey! Where the heck is my invitation? Seriously, I’ve no doubt that there will an enormous party in Miami when Castro dies, regardless of who rises to power, but the “exile community” is not as organized as to have “standing reservations” anywhere. If you’d ever attended a Cuban party you’d know what I mean. The term “making it up as you go” is a perfect description of the Cuban mindset, both in the island and outside. ---
**Author:** ![SentientMeat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/43a26b/32.png) [@SentientMeat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SentientMeat)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2003, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-to-cuba-when-castro-dies/218023/26 "2003-12-10T15:33:24Z")
[Jose Pepin Bosch](http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,774749,00.html) was head of Bacardi when it was nationalised. ---
**Author:** ![bayonet1976](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/77aa72/32.png) [@bayonet1976](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bayonet1976)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2003, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-to-cuba-when-castro-dies/218023/27 "2003-12-10T15:39:35Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by SentientMeat \* > \*\*[Jose Pepin Bosch](http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,774749,00.html) was head of Bacardi when it was nationalised. \*\* Jose Pepin Bosch and Orlando Bosch are unrelated. While there’s no argument, at least not from me, that Orlando Bosch is a despicable man, Jose Pepin Bosch seems to be nothing more than someone who opposed Castro and who has never been accused by any credible source of anything else. And by the way, the article you linked here was not the article you linked before. ---
**Author:** ![Beagle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/85f322/32.png) [@Beagle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beagle)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2003, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-to-cuba-when-castro-dies/218023/28 "2003-12-10T15:41:02Z")
> [@](#): > > I hope that this prosperity does not diminish their deep sense of social responsibility. Yeah, cuz we don’t have that. What a load of crap. As long as there have been unfree countries, fellow travellers will go there and say: “it’s great!” Guess what, oh wise one, I know plenty of Cubans already. They have actual family there and have a long-term interest in the welfare of the nation, not some uberegalitarian self-delusional fantasy about what kind of country Cuba is. ---
**Author:** ![SentientMeat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/43a26b/32.png) [@SentientMeat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SentientMeat)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2003, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-to-cuba-when-castro-dies/218023/29 "2003-12-10T15:47:54Z")
> [@](#): > > Jose Pepin Bosch and Orlando Bosch are unrelated. Apologies, I was unaware of this fact. **Beagle** , I never said “it’s great”. I said life is hard, but the people seem to have a deep sense of social responsibility. ---
**Author:** ![Beagle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/85f322/32.png) [@Beagle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beagle)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2003, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-to-cuba-when-castro-dies/218023/30 "2003-12-10T16:11:05Z")
That’s fair. Perhaps I was over the top. It happens every morning, usually related to some dictator somewhere. It sucks trying to be the world’s policeman apologist. One should note though, no Cuban can speak without possible repercussions to self or family with Castro around. The Cuban community in Miami gets a bad rap from some people, yet many of them have a deep sense of responsibility to Cuba and the United States. Moreover, they have dominated the political scene in much of southeastern Florida for years, as it’s continued to grow into a huge megalopolis, from now north of Palm Beach down. Economic success is one way to deal with poverty. Usually someone blames the United States for the woes of Cuba. Meanwhile, Florida is a living laboratory, and scientific proof of the fact that people vote with their feet. Sadly, many tens of thousands die in the Straits of Florida before they get here. Or, Castro has them summarily executed. ---
**Author:** ![JungleLove](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/839c29/32.png) [@JungleLove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JungleLove)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2003, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-to-cuba-when-castro-dies/218023/31 "2003-12-10T17:24:09Z")
Just to summarize… It sounds like some posters think that the Castro regime has a succession of power plan in place for when the old man dies and that Communism will continue. Then, I guess, the U.S. embargo will likely continue? Others think that the Cuban economy will shift to a capitalistic one and then Cuba-Americans will likely expand their companies into Cuba. Is one of these scenarios more probable than the others? I guess the U.S. government, beyond the Helms-Burton Act and Bush’s reaffirmation of the embargo, is silent on future relations with Cuba? I know this is a major hijack, but briefly, can someone say how the U.S. is able to lease a naval base (Guantanamo Bay) on the island but can also maintain a trade embargo? Does Cuba need the money? Is that why? ---
**Author:** ![SuaSponte](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/67e7ee/32.png) [@SuaSponte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SuaSponte)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2003, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-to-cuba-when-castro-dies/218023/32 "2003-12-10T17:28:30Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Aro \* > \*\*Thanks for the info, **Sua**. > > I didn’t mean to sound like I thought it was completely absurd to seek compensation for this form of loss. I initially read **Rexdart** ’s post, especially the comment _“return of the confiscated properties”_ as though any claims would be for _actual_ physical land to be returned, which would probably be unfeasible or unworkable due to modern ownership. But businesses being remunerated for the value of property taken may certainly be worth perusing in this instance. \*\* Actually, in the Czech Republic, at least, individuals are seeking the return of the actual physical land. Sua ---
**Author:** ![JungleLove](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/839c29/32.png) [@JungleLove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JungleLove)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2003, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-to-cuba-when-castro-dies/218023/33 "2003-12-10T18:05:43Z")
…That should be Cuba **n** -Americans. ---
**Author:** ![bayonet1976](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/77aa72/32.png) [@bayonet1976](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bayonet1976)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2003, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-to-cuba-when-castro-dies/218023/34 "2003-12-10T18:24:00Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by JungleLove \* > \*\*Just to summarize… > > It sounds like some posters think that the Castro regime has a succession of power plan in place for when the old man dies and that Communism will continue. \*\* The succession of power in Cuba, as announced by Castro a number of times, points to Raul Castro as the next leader. However, Raul Castro is not the man his brother is, and many people, in and out of the island, expect that he will not be able to hang on to power for long. Assuming he outlives his brother. > [@](#): > > **Then, I guess, the U.S. embargo will likely continue?** The short definitive answer: it depends. I think the US embargo will be lifted under one of two scenarios: 1. Communism in Cuba collapses, and a democratic government in installed. 2. Cuba’s economy collapses and a state of anarchy ensues. International agencies step in to run the country (personally I find this last profoundly repugnant.) > [@](#): > > \*\*Others think that the Cuban economy will shift to a capitalistic one and then Cuba-Americans will likely expand their companies into Cuba. > > Is one of these scenarios more probable than the others? \*\* I think Cuba’s economy will continue to shift to a capitalist model. Notice I say “continue to shift”, in the past 5-10 years Castro’s government, save for some short periods of retrenchement, has encouraged a cautious move to private enterprise. The state, of course, has lustily embraced capitalism, funding joint ventures in tourist hotels and related infratructure. > [@](#): > > **I guess the U.S. government, beyond the Helms-Burton Act and Bush’s reaffirmation of the embargo, is silent on future relations with Cuba?** Hardly silent, the US’s position seems to be that relations with Cuba will open when a democratic government is installed. > [@](#): > > \*\*I know this is a major hijack, but briefly, can someone say how the U.S. is able to lease a naval base (Guantanamo Bay) on the island but can also maintain a trade embargo? Does Cuba need the money? Is that why? \*\* The US got a lease on Guantanamo during the first Cuban Republic of 1903. The lease was extended in 1934 for 99 years, with an option to renew/cancel based on both parties agreeing to terms, esentially for perpetuity. Since the US and Cuba have not agreed on terms the US has chosen to retain the base. It could just as easily agreed to to close it, but then they wouldn’t have been able to stick it to Castro. By the way, as I understand it, the US has continued to make payments to Cuba for the base, in the order of $2000 a year, but Cuba has not cashed any of the checks since the early 60’s. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-to-cuba-when-castro-dies/218023.md?page=1)