# What will happen to the market? A prediction thread. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 30, 2009, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-to-the-market-a-prediction-thread/512166 "2009-09-30T22:04:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 10\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2009, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-to-the-market-a-prediction-thread/512166/1 "2009-09-30T22:04:25Z")
Just curious where folks around here think the market is headed right now. Right now, at a cursory glance, the market LOOKS like it’s getting stronger. The market is up from the low levels of the last few months and seems to be strengthening. However, unemployment is also rising, and is nearly 10% IIRC. Industry doesn’t seem stronger at this time. There seems to be little reason (from my perspective) for the market to be going up right now, and I have this sinking feeling that the bottom is just about to fall out, and we are going to be on the elevator with a cut cable headed to toward…something bad. Thoughts? -XT ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2009, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-to-the-market-a-prediction-thread/512166/2 "2009-09-30T22:16:40Z")
I assume you mean the **stock** market? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2009, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-to-the-market-a-prediction-thread/512166/3 "2009-09-30T22:27:10Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > I assume you mean the **stock** market? No, the market where the three little piggies went. \ ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2009, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-to-the-market-a-prediction-thread/512166/4 "2009-09-30T22:29:11Z")
Um, yes…the STOCK market. Carry on. -XT ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2009, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-to-the-market-a-prediction-thread/512166/5 "2009-09-30T22:47:13Z")
Well, both the DJIA and the TSX are up about 33% off their 52 week lows set in March-ish, and look to be both heading steadily up since then. Employment is usually a lagging indicator of a recovery, and it was expected that it would keep rising even after the market recovers. Many economists say that we have not seen the top of the unemployment numbers yet. The market will not likely see spectacular returns, but neither will it plummet once again. My prediction is that the DJIA will hit 10,000 by the end of the year, and then spend 2010 meandering around this mark. ---
**Author:** ![ultrafilter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/3d9bf3/32.png) [@ultrafilter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ultrafilter)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2009, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-to-the-market-a-prediction-thread/512166/6 "2009-09-30T22:52:04Z")
It’ll fluctuate. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2009, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-to-the-market-a-prediction-thread/512166/7 "2009-09-30T22:56:30Z")
A big dead cat bounce. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2009, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-to-the-market-a-prediction-thread/512166/8 "2009-09-30T23:00:56Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > A big dead cat bounce. I disagree - the markets have gone up far too much for that, and other economic fundamentals are sorting themselves out. Certainly there will be down times, and I don’t discount the idea of another drop of 10% or so as shorting/profit taking take a toll.. But we’re not going to see the market test the lows of earlier this year. But then - ya pays your money and ya takes your chances. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2009, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-to-the-market-a-prediction-thread/512166/9 "2009-09-30T23:07:27Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > I disagree - the markets have gone up far too much for that, and other economic fundamentals are sorting themselves out. Certainly there will be down times, and I don’t discount the idea of another drop of 10% or so as shorting/profit taking take a toll.. But we’re not going to see the market test the lows of earlier this year. > > But then - ya pays your money and ya takes your chances. Maybe, but then again you’ve still got the credit frost combined with debt, I dunno, just a personal opinion, I like to warrant caution. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2009, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-to-the-market-a-prediction-thread/512166/10 "2009-09-30T23:15:34Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > Maybe, but then again you’ve still got the credit frost combined with debt, I dunno, just a personal opinion, I like to warrant caution. I’d advise anyone in the states to put something into a Canadian TSX index fund. Fundamentals are better here, especially on the housing and personal debt front, combined with the likelihood of the Canadian $ going up even more in the next 12 months, combined with a run-up in commodity prices…