# What will happen when Castro dies? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 3, 2004, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-when-castro-dies/258146 "2004-08-03T15:36:54Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Sampiro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/2acd7d/32.png) [@Sampiro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sampiro)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2004, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-when-castro-dies/258146/1 "2004-08-03T15:36:54Z")
Let me preface by saying that I’m not by any stretch an expert on Cuba, but I have been reading about it a good bit lately and am anxious to learn more. If you have any recommendations for books, articles or films (documentaries or otherwise) based on Cuba under/before Castro, please suggest them. When the Castro brothers are dead (which can’t be THAT long since they’re all pushing 80), what do you think will happen to Cuba? Will the communist state survive the Castros or will it become capitalist? Will American investors pump billions into the island (as so many foreign investors have been praying for years) or will the embargo continue? Will most of the exilio community in Miami, Spain and the rest of the world return to the Patria or continue their lives abroad? (Also, the children and grandchildren who have been born in America to those who emigrated from Cuba- do most consider themselves more American or Cuban?) Thanks for any input. ---
**Author:** ![Cluricaun](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/bb73d2/32.png) [@Cluricaun](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cluricaun)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2004, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-when-castro-dies/258146/2 "2004-08-03T16:46:30Z")
I don’t know about Cuban politics, but I’ve heard from grandparents that back in the 50’s Cuba was the vacation spot to visit. I’ve always hoped for a return to the resort destination that it once was. Give me Cohiba’s, mojito’s and some grand casino and I’ll be there in a heartbeat. ---
**Author:** ![nonpolar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/3da27b/32.png) [@nonpolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nonpolar)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2004, 5:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-when-castro-dies/258146/3 "2004-08-04T05:20:34Z")
When Castro dies, vultures will tear Cuba to pieces. ---
**Author:** ![SanibelMan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e4f/32.png) [@SanibelMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SanibelMan)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2004, 6:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-when-castro-dies/258146/4 "2004-08-04T06:30:47Z")
From what I heard living in South Florida, the moment the news hits CNN, dozens of very well-armed speedboats loaded with the next “presidents” of Cuba will leave Biscayne Bay for Havana. We’ll see how many the Coast Guard can stop. ---
**Author:** ![Horatio\_Hellpop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/e5b9ba/32.png) [@Horatio\_Hellpop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatio_Hellpop)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2004, 7:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-when-castro-dies/258146/5 "2004-08-04T07:22:54Z")
> [@SanibelMan](#): > > From what I heard living in South Florida, the moment the news hits CNN, dozens of very well-armed speedboats loaded with the next “presidents” of Cuba will leave Biscayne Bay for Havana. We’ll see how many the Coast Guard can stop. I note you said “dozens” instead of “thousands.” Refugees seldom leave America in droves when the regime back home changes–as the Algonquins learned, over and over again. Their second- and third-generation progeny are even less likely. And it’s not just because America’s so swell. Remember the Confederates who fled to Brazil in the 1860s, plotting their eventual triumphant return? Their modern-day descendants consider themselves as thoroughly assimilated as any other Brazilians. I imagine the grandchildren of the first Cuban refugees to Miami feel pretty much the same about their current homeland. ---
**Author:** ![clairobscur](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/839c29/32.png) [@clairobscur](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clairobscur)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2004, 1:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-when-castro-dies/258146/6 "2004-08-04T13:22:15Z")
> [@Cluricaun](#): > > I don’t know about Cuban politics, but I’ve heard from grandparents that back in the 50’s Cuba was the vacation spot to visit. I’ve always hoped for a return to the resort destination that it once was. . Actually, Cuba is again a trendy vacation spot, and droves of europeans go over there. Tourism is currently amongst the main sources (if not _the_ main source) of income for Cuba. I’ve read an interesting article about the potential successors of Castro some time ago, but of course forgot everything since. It seems there’s (as usual) a divide between the “old guard” and the young ambitious politicians, the latter seeming to be more favored by Castro. I gathered from this article that it’s not obvious at all (and even unlikely) that Castro’s brother will suceed him. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2004, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-when-castro-dies/258146/7 "2004-08-04T13:27:44Z")
I think it’s quite likely that Castro has thought of this and his designated successor has been told what to do when Fidel dies. Like most things in dictatorships, those that know don’t talk and those that talk don’t know. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2004, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-when-castro-dies/258146/8 "2004-08-04T22:15:25Z")
And if Castro dies and his regime does not appear likely to immediately collapse as a result – how will the United States government – President Bush, or President Kerry – react to that? ---
**Author:** ![Mighty\_Girl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7bcc69/32.png) [@Mighty\_Girl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mighty_Girl)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2004, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-when-castro-dies/258146/9 "2004-08-06T05:16:24Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > President Kerry – react to that? Plenty optimistic, are you? As somebody above said, the vultures will rip Cuba. And forget about Cubans going back, ain’t gonna happen. Most of the Miami Cubans just need something to cry about, Cuba comes handy, but when push comes to shove they will not return to an impoverished nation. No way Jose. ---
**Author:** ![Mighty\_Girl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7bcc69/32.png) [@Mighty\_Girl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mighty_Girl)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2004, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-when-castro-dies/258146/10 "2004-08-06T05:17:36Z")
Bad coding, bad coding. In my first phrase above I mean that thinking it will be Bush or Castro that will be in power when Fidel meets his creator is too optimistic. ---
**Author:** ![nonpolar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/3da27b/32.png) [@nonpolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nonpolar)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2004, 7:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-when-castro-dies/258146/11 "2004-08-06T07:20:26Z")
Eastern Europe scenario = euphoria ,dancing in the streets, few months later back to new reality =crime ,unemployment,etc. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2004, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-when-castro-dies/258146/12 "2004-08-06T20:46:59Z")
> [@Mighty\_Girl](#): > > In my first phrase above I mean that thinking it will be Bush or Castro that will be in power when Fidel meets his creator is too optimistic. I assume you meant to write “Bush or Kerry” – meaning we shouldn’t expect Castro to pass any time in the next four to eight years. How old **is** the dude, anyway? Here’s another question: How do the Cuban people really feel about socialism? It’s hard to know, given their censorship (and our own government’s Radio Marti propaganda only muddies the waters still further). But I’ve heard talks by some left-wingers who have visited Cuba (by the necessary circuitous channels) and they give me the impression that if the existing system falls, the aftermath won’t be anything like it was in Eastern Europe – the people are still going to want socialism in some form, maybe a more democratized form. (I’ve never heard a counterpart perspective from right-wingers who have visited Cuba – probably because they wouldn’t.) Actually the system they’ve got now is one that would be extremely democratic if the Communist Party weren’t pulling all the strings. From the Encarta ([http://encarta.msn.com/encyclopedia\_761569844\_4\_\_\_\_124/Cuba.html#s124](http://encarta.msn.com/encyclopedia_761569844_4 ____ 124/Cuba.html#s124)): > [@](#): > > The 1976 constitution instituted a concept known as the People’s Power construct, a structure designed to allow Cuban citizens greater participation in government policy-making decisions. The People’s Power consists of assemblies that administer government and pass laws. These assemblies exist at municipal, provincial, and national levels. Delegates are nominated and elected first at the municipal level. They need not be members of the PCC. However, the party must approve all candidates, and individuals may not run on a political platform. Instead, voters select their delegate from brief biographies and from personal acquaintance with the person. The 169 municipal assemblies allocate funds for maintenance of municipal facilities and hear cases involving household disputes and petty crime. Smaller communities with populations of 30,000 or more elect delegates to people’s councils. Members of the municipal assemblies and the people’s councils elect representatives to their provincial assemblies from their membership. > > Each of Cuba’s 14 provinces has its own assembly. Provincial assemblies oversee transportation and communication systems throughout the island and recommend legislation regarding interstate crime and allocations of resources for development. From their own membership, provincial delegates nominate and elect representatives to the 601-member National Assembly of People’s Power. In 1992 the public approved a referendum calling for assembly members to be elected directly by the people. Only candidates belonging to the PCC are allowed to run. > > The National Assembly votes on legislation presented by the PCC, and every four years it elects the president of the country. It occasionally debates the wisdom of legislation, but it has never failed to approve the central government’s proposals. When the National Assembly is in recess, which is most of the year, the Council of State has legislative powers. 169 municipalities! In a country of 11.3 million – that makes the average population roughly 66,800. By comparison, in Florida we have a population of nearly 16 million – and only 67 counties (which would be the nearest equivalent of Cuban municipalities, our town and city governments being relatively unimportant outside the urbanized areas), so the average population of a county is 238,800. The Cuban system has basic units that are smaller and closer to the people. Liberalize that system a little, get the PCC out of it, make elections to the provincial and national assemblies multipartisan – and you’d have a system with rather more democracy than we’ve got anywhere in the U.S. outside New England. ---
**Author:** ![Raygun99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/6f9a4e/32.png) [@Raygun99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Raygun99)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2004, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-when-castro-dies/258146/13 "2004-08-06T23:50:14Z")
What happens with the Hispanic voter base in South Florida when the parties no longer have to pander to them with their Cuba policy? I get the impression there are a lot of single-issue voters down there with regards to this. ---
**Author:** ![Unregistered\_Bull](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/3da27b/32.png) [@Unregistered\_Bull](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Unregistered_Bull)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2004, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-when-castro-dies/258146/14 "2004-08-07T02:49:27Z")
> [@Raygun99](#): > > What happens with the Hispanic voter base in South Florida when the parties no longer have to pander to them with their Cuba policy? I get the impression there are a lot of single-issue voters down there with regards to this. It’s possible to become even more “panderable” with a fall or greater potential of a fall. It might not fall at all, and just another strong, iron handed dictator takesover. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2004, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-when-castro-dies/258146/15 "2004-08-10T03:16:54Z")
> [@Raygun99](#): > > What happens with the Hispanic voter base in South Florida when the parties no longer have to pander to them with their Cuba policy? I get the impression there are a lot of single-issue voters down there with regards to this. I expect they’ll remain Republicans because they’ve been identifying themselves as conscious anti-Communists for 40 years, and the Republicans would remain the more staunchly anti-Communist party. Also, as I noted above, Cuba might remain socialist, in some sense, even if Castro dies and the Communist Party falls from power – meaning, among other things, that any post-Communist Cuban government is not likely to pay reparations to families whose property was nationalized after the revolution. That could be the Miami Cubans’ new single-issue – keep economic sanctions in place until reparations are paid! But they’ll find that issue has much less traction with non-Cubans than the current trade embargo, which is defended on the much more compelling grounds that it might hasten the end of a totalitarian regime. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2004, 7:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-when-castro-dies/258146/16 "2004-08-10T07:41:50Z")
Well, once the die-hard communists are sent to jail or shot, then the Mafa can come back and take over the hotels and soon-to-be reconstructed casinos. And it won’t be the US Mafia…the Sicilian Mafia will run the place. And, once the inefficiant communist-style collective farms are gotten rid of, Cuba will become a big exporter of food (as it was before Castro). Cuba will become a high-groth, properous nation…“viva la revolucion!” ---
**Author:** ![The\_Scrivener](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@The\_Scrivener](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Scrivener)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2004, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-when-castro-dies/258146/17 "2004-08-10T15:16:49Z")
The fall of Castro and the opening up of Cuba to restored trade relations with the U.S. would probably spell the end the domestic sugar cane industry around the Everglades in South Florida, and undermine some of the demand for corn-based sweeteners, as cane sugar is superior to corn syrup in many of these applications – perhaps most notably in soft drinks, where you can really taste the difference. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2004, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-when-castro-dies/258146/18 "2004-08-10T17:10:01Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > Well, once the die-hard communists are sent to jail or shot, then the Mafa can come back and take over the hotels and soon-to-be reconstructed casinos. And it won’t be the US Mafia…the Sicilian Mafia will run the place. **ralph,** why are you assuming that any post-Communist government in Cuba will be corrupt enough to allow that? ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2004, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-when-castro-dies/258146/19 "2004-08-11T22:40:27Z")
Why would the mafia, or the “vultures” (who are these vultures anyway?) take over Cuba? If they were capable of taking over Cuba, why don’t they take over Haiti, or Jamaica, or Bermuda, or the Cayman Islands, or the Bahamas, or any of the other little Carribean countries? What would make Cuba easier to take over and/or loot? Cuba is a lot larger and has more people than any other carribean country, why is it under special threat? ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2004, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-when-castro-dies/258146/20 "2004-08-11T22:50:50Z")
Scrivever: Yes, it would be logical to allow the importation of cheap Cuban sugar to replace our expensive (by world market prices) corn syrup. Except that we already have stiff tariffs on the importation of sugar from the world market to protect Archer-Daniels-Midland from competition with unscrupulous third world sugar farmers, who deviously undercut US corn syrup producers by growing sugar cane in a climate where it grows well and also by living in poverty. How can a rich multinational agricultural corporation compete with impoverished third world farmers? It can’t, and expecting it to compete is patently unfair. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-happen-when-castro-dies/258146.md?page=2)