# What will the UK do wrt Brexit? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 18, 2019, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799 "2019-02-18T22:39:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 23
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2019, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/441 "2019-03-19T00:50:03Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > I’ve been trying to game-plan the possible outcomes. > > If MV3 were to take place after a prorogation, I could see an amendment to approve the deal as long as it’s ratified in a referendum with Remain as the other option passing. I think a motion to submit May’s deal to a referendum could be held without an intervening prorogation. A motion calling for a referndum is substantially different from a motion to ratify the deal. > [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > If it were a general election, I think that would just cause more chaos. The opinion polls are belying the fact that the Tories are barely a single party any more. Brexit cuts across party lines, and while labour will be similarly muffled in their campaigning, I would not be surprised to see the Tories actually splitting one way or another. > > Even if they stay together by some miracle I doubt it will clarify matters one jot. Tactical voting will be insane. Depends. At the very least, a general election is highly likely to take the DUP out of the frame, which would simplify matters. And if May can impose a manifesto on the party which includes “Brexit on the terms of May’s deal”, and get a majority in the election, there’d be a fair following wind for the ratification of the deal by Parliament. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2019, 10:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/442 "2019-03-19T10:45:30Z")
From the Daily Mash: [I only smirked because it was f\*\*king hilarious, says Bercow](https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/i-only-smirked-because-it-was-fking-hilarious-says-bercow-20190319183707) > [@](#): > > THE Speaker of the House has clarified that he only smirked when cancelling a third Brexit vote yesterday because it was so incredibly funny. > > John Bercow admitted that he spent the whole weekend, during which senior Tories pontificated about who would change sides and offered the DUP a Range Rover Evoque each, absolutely weak with laughter but had managed to calm it down. > > He continued: “This is why it had to be a surprise statement. If Theresa had been there on the front bench there’s no way I could have got through it without breaking down. > > “Just seeing Leadsom in her poisonous little fury had me biting the inside of my cheek hard. The face on her. > > “I basically got a bunch of self-righteous will-of-the-people arseholes all standing on the one trapdoor, then pulled a wooden lever installed in 1604 they’d all forgotten about. > > “Jacob Rees-Mogg got it. He was absolutely pissing his sides afterwards. He’s a good lad.” > > Bercow added: “Apparently now they’re going to restart parliament. Get the Queen to do an early speech. This is comedy gold.” ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2019, 10:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/443 "2019-03-19T10:47:55Z")
> [@UDS](#): > > Depends. At the very least, a general election is highly likely to take the DUP out of the frame, which would simplify matters. And if May can impose a manifesto on the party which includes “Brexit on the terms of May’s deal”, and get a majority in the election, there’d be a fair following wind for the ratification of the deal by Parliament. That’s the thing. So many MPs have put their colours to the mast and so firmly rubbished the deal for various reasons I don’t think she’ll be able to without mass resignations. And if she were to resign as some way of resolving things, then whoever takes over would offend the other wing of the party so much. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2019, 11:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/444 "2019-03-19T11:16:07Z")
> [@UDS](#): > > I think a motion to submit May’s deal to a referendum could be held without an intervening prorogation. A motion calling for a referndum is substantially different from a motion to ratify the deal. > Depends. At the very least, a general election is highly likely to take the DUP out of the frame, which would simplify matters. And if May can impose a manifesto on the party which includes “Brexit on the terms of May’s deal”, and get a majority in the election, there’d be a fair following wind for the ratification of the deal by Parliament. I wouldn’t bank on another general election producing any clearer an outcome, as between the two major parties, or as regards the possibility of a minority government deal with one of the minority parties. As for your second conditional, that would more likely split the Tories rather than give her or any new leader a stronger footing than the one she threw away last time. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2019, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/445 "2019-03-19T14:49:40Z")
It seems like May’s government is having a major meltdown. There was a cabinet meeting this morning. Cabinet sources have leaked that May ‘read the riot act to to the cabinet about leaking’. However, the cabinet still continues to leak like a sieve. She has no authority, even among the people she personally appointed. Leaked from various sources, posted on the Guardian: > [@](#): > > Theresa May set out two options, long and short extension. Did not set out preference. > > One angry cabinet source: “It’s not up to us. It’s up to them, and who knows what conditions they’ll attach.” > > Andrea Leadsom said to ‘tear into’ colleagues, saying ‘this is now a Remain Cabinet, not a Brexit Cabinet’ - and argued for leaving without a final deal at end of June. > > “She [May] sat their like a nodding dog, not making a proper decision. She should be leading.” > > Sources claiming that Theresa May didn’t actually suggest any time period for a Brexit extension and just listened to the views of others around the Cabinet table… Leading from the front! > > Fear lack of decision and general anger might push govt into another confidence vote situation next week and some Tories might be so angry they vote against govt or abstain - ‘it’s last days of Rome’ says one insider. > > Theresa May told Cabinet that Bercow’s intervention had turned Brexit into ‘Parliament versus the people’. Also warned that voters increasingly viewing Parliament as a ‘laughing stock’ > > Cabinet source: ‘The only thing agreed this morning was that everyone hates Bercow’ > > Cabinet sources say PM is writing letter to EU today asking for extension - frustration that she is going to ask for end date of June 30th, with proviso of up delay of up to 2 years. Is this the most utterly useless government in UK history? How much longer can May hang on? It seems likely the EU will grant an extension, and there will either be a referendum or a general election or both. ---
**Author:** ![Wrenching\_Spanners](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ecb155/32.png) [@Wrenching\_Spanners](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wrenching_Spanners)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2019, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/446 "2019-03-19T15:18:37Z")
I’m surprised May is even bothering asking for a 30 day extension, if that bit is true. There are 10 days left before the scheduled deadline. Her latest strategy was to try and convince the hard-line Brexiters that her Withdrawal Act was the hardest Brexit they could get. And while that may have been starting to work for two or three dozen MP’s, it wasn’t going to get 75 no-voters to switch to yes. Now Bercow’s made it even harder to get a yes vote on the current Withdrawal Act. She might as well just cut her losses and just ask for a long-term extension. Then she can decide if she wants to lead a compromise effort, or if she’d rather just stand aside and let someone else have a go. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2019, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/447 "2019-03-19T15:25:26Z")
In case you were wondering what Jeremy Corbyn was doing last night, on one of the most dramatic days of the Brexit fiasco… he was [giving a speech at the British Kebab Awards](https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/03/jeremy-corbyn-reveals-all-at-the-british-kebab-awards/)… even though he doesn’t eat kebabs, as he is a vegetarian. Nothing like having a sense of urgency as the clock runs down. And no, this is NOT satire. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2019, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/448 "2019-03-19T16:49:53Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > In case you were wondering what Jeremy Corbyn was doing last night, on one of the most dramatic days of the Brexit fiasco… he was [giving a speech at the British Kebab Awards](https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/03/jeremy-corbyn-reveals-all-at-the-british-kebab-awards/)… even though he doesn’t eat kebabs, as he is a vegetarian. > > Nothing like having a sense of urgency as the clock runs down. > > And no, this is NOT satire. Given how painful this is to watch from the far side of the Atlantic, I can’t imagine how it must feel to be in your position right now. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2019, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/449 "2019-03-19T17:22:02Z")
As always, the main reason Theresa May remains in power is the lack of a remotely palatable alternative from any party. Corbyn is less “Leader of the Opposition” and more “object lesson on why you should never say ‘it can’t get any worse’”. ---
**Author:** ![Inner\_Stickler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inner_stickler/32/318_2.png) [@Inner\_Stickler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inner_Stickler)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2019, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/450 "2019-03-19T18:04:51Z")
And, just so I am clear, the party leaders are elected by the MPs of that party, not by the voting public, correct? So, if you dislike a particular party leader, your only recourse is, if your own MP voted for them, voting out the MP? ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2019, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/451 "2019-03-19T18:18:41Z")
> [@Inner\_Stickler](#): > > And, just so I am clear, the party leaders are elected by the MPs of that party, not by the voting public, correct? So, if you dislike a particular party leader, your only recourse is, if your own MP voted for them, voting out the MP? Every party has its own rules. The Labour leadership selection process has a very large input from the party membership, for example. ---
**Author:** ![MichaelEmouse](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/michaelemouse/32/101_2.png) [@MichaelEmouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MichaelEmouse)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2019, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/452 "2019-03-19T19:36:30Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Given how painful this is to watch from the far side of the Atlantic, I can’t imagine how it must feel to be in your position right now. He could say the very same thing to you : ) > [@Gyrate](#): > > As always, the main reason Theresa May remains in power is the lack of a remotely palatable alternative from any party. Corbyn is less “Leader of the Opposition” and more “object lesson on why you should never say ‘it can’t get any worse’”. and for those who think it couldn’t get any worse for the Tories, remember that it could have been Leadsom. > [@robardin](#): > > Actually, the one person I sympathise with the _most_ is Theresa May, who herself voted to Remain, IIRC, yet was put in a position to handle the Brexit storm that Cameron brought upon them. Someone put her name in the nomination box without her knowledge? She was wrong to run and the Tories were idiots for electing a Remainer to implement Leave. As someone said earlier, she took the job because it was her chance to be Prime Minister. She thought she could reach the pinnacle of self-aggrandizement in History but it was actually gonna go like this: [https://youtu.be/A0TalLrtZ24?t=134](https://youtu.be/A0TalLrtZ24?t=134) I’ve seen people try to come up with convoluted reasons for why the people involved act as they do. Sometimes, when we have difficulty figuring out why people act as they do, our first intuition can be to think they must be pulling some complicated 3D chess moves. More often then not, they’re playing checkers. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2019, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/453 "2019-03-19T23:51:20Z")
Why this constant refrain that May is a Remainer? Yes, yes, she proffered a (muted) effort on the Remain side in the referendum, and we are told she voted Remain; but everything she has done since the referendum has been the instincts of a Brexiter - the red lines, the citizens of nowhere speech, the attacking of Remainers as opponents of the people’s will, and the loyal support she had for two years by the pro-Brexit press calling on her to ‘crush the saboteurs’. If we had a ‘true blue’ Brexiter like Leadsom in charge, I tell you now, we’d likely be in a very similar position. The failure of Brexit is nothing to do with Remainers sabotaging it. Brexiters have done plenty of work sabotaging it themselves. ---
**Author:** ![MichaelEmouse](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/michaelemouse/32/101_2.png) [@MichaelEmouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MichaelEmouse)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2019, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/454 "2019-03-20T00:12:13Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > Why this constant refrain that May is a Remainer? Yes, yes, she proffered a (muted) effort on the Remain side in the referendum, and we are told she voted Remain; but everything she has done since the referendum has been the instincts of a Brexiter - the red lines, the citizens of nowhere speech, the attacking of Remainers as opponents of the people’s will, and the loyal support she had for two years by the pro-Brexit press calling on her to ‘crush the saboteurs’. > > If we had a ‘true blue’ Brexiter like Leadsom in charge, I tell you now, we’d likely be in a very similar position. The failure of Brexit is nothing to do with Remainers sabotaging it. Brexiters have done plenty of work sabotaging it themselves. I didn’t mean to imply the problems of Brexit were caused by Remainers. I’m sure that’s how Brexiters will spin it. You can expect plenty of “We were stabbed in the back”. I mean, what are they gonna do, engage in introspection, admit they made a mistake and make a deliberate effort to improve? May I suggest this as the Brexit song? [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4zyfwtDIHE](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4zyfwtDIHE) ---
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2019, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/455 "2019-03-20T00:51:01Z")
> [@Inner\_Stickler](#): > > And, just so I am clear, the party leaders are elected by the MPs of that party, not by the voting public, correct? Each party has its own rules. In the Labour party, the leaders is elected by a vote of the party members. In the Tory party, the candidates for the leadership are whittled down to just two by a succession of votes by Tory MPs, after which the party membership gets to vote between the two remaning candidates. In both cases the rules are relatively recent and they could be changed if the judgement is that they tend not to produce good outcomes. Just sayin’. > [@Inner\_Stickler](#): > > So, if you dislike a particular party leader, your only recourse is, if your own MP voted for them, voting out the MP? If you don’t like the leader of the X party, and this sentiment is what is going to determine your vote in the general election, then you don’t vote for the candidate from X party. Whether he or she likes the leader of the party, or voted for them, or supported them in their leadership campaign, or whatever, is completely irrelevant. A vote for the X party is a vote for the X party as currently led by its current leadership. ---
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2019, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/456 "2019-03-20T00:54:56Z")
> [@PatrickLondon](#): > > I wouldn’t bank on another general election producing any clearer an outcome, as between the two major parties, or as regards the possibility of a minority government deal with one of the minority parties. As for your second conditional, that would more likely split the Tories rather than give her or any new leader a stronger footing than the one she threw away last time. Current polls suggest that a general election would deliver a Tory majority. Of course, polls suggested that just before the last election, and look what happened, so nothing is certain. But the UK electoral system is pretty good at delivering a majority for _some_ party, even when their vote share doesn’t justify it, so it would be extrordinary bad luck to find the DUP holidng the balance of power again. You could of course find another party holding the balance of power - e.g. the SNP. But that would still be a much better outcome than the current situation. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2019, 4:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/457 "2019-03-20T04:03:30Z")
The main thing that I want to come out of this is that in every GD thread, once a couple of people chime in on each side of the debate, a mod comes in and shouts: DIVISIIIIIIIOOOOOON! CLEAR THE LOBBY! I think that would be appropriate. ---
**Author:** ![Nava](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/da6949/32.png) [@Nava](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nava)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2019, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/458 "2019-03-20T04:30:45Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > You are being pedantic. Previously in this discussion the EU has referred to both the EU governmental organization and the countries which make up the EU. For example posters have said that not only the UK but also the EU will have significantly increased trade costs. But did you bother to explain to them that the EU doesn’t have trade costs, only the residents and businesses of individual countries? I’m not being pedantic, I’m pointing out that the correct place to look for increases on “EU customs officials” is many places. If someone wanted to know how many ships does the US have guarding their borders, would the Navy be the correct place to look? In the case of Spain, you need to look at “reassignments within the Guardia Civil” first, but oh wait, those are currently in the “prepared, not executed” phase so civilians don’t have access: you can’t know what the plans are. You can know how many people is the Guardia Civil looking to recruit, but hey look, we already have some of the longest borders in the EU and no border land with the UK, so on one hand we already have a lot of Civiles at the border and on the other what needs to be reinforced is sea and air ports of entry (hopefully those Brits doing business legally won’t suddenly decide that it’s a good idea to smuggle oranges by sea from Costa da Morte). Other countries will have their own bodies, which may be civilian, police or military and may or may not be already partially or completely public. And unlike for trade costs, this isn’t something for which statistics are frequently collated: you need to look at each of them. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2019, 7:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/459 "2019-03-20T07:44:14Z")
Comment of the day from France’s EU Minister Nathalie Loiseau: “I call my cat Brexit. He wakes me up every day meowing like mad because he wants to be let out, then when I open the door he just stands there, indecisive, then gives me a dirty look when I put him outside.” ---
**Author:** ![JacobSwan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a6a055/32.png) [@JacobSwan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JacobSwan)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2019, 9:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/460 "2019-03-20T09:41:33Z")
> [@Nava](#): > > I’m not being pedantic, I’m pointing out that the correct place to look for increases on “EU customs officials” is many places. If someone wanted to know how many ships does the US have guarding their borders, would the Navy be the correct place to look? In the case of Spain, you need to look at “reassignments within the Guardia Civil” first, but oh wait, those are currently in the “prepared, not executed” phase so civilians don’t have access: you can’t know what the plans are. You can know how many people is the Guardia Civil looking to recruit, but hey look, we already have some of the longest borders in the EU and **no border land with the UK** , so on one hand we already have a lot of Civiles at the border and on the other what needs to be reinforced is sea and air ports of entry (hopefully those Brits doing business legally won’t suddenly decide that it’s a good idea to smuggle oranges by sea from Costa da Morte). Other countries will have their own bodies, which may be civilian, police or military and may or may not be already partially or completely public. And unlike for trade costs, this isn’t something for which statistics are frequently collated: you need to look at each of them. Can I be pedantic about the bit in bold? Have we lost Gibraltar overnight? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799.md?page=22) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799.md?page=24)