# What will the UK do wrt Brexit? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 18, 2019, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799 "2019-02-18T22:39:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 29
**Author:** ![DCTrekkie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dctrekkie/32/18862_2.png) [@DCTrekkie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCTrekkie)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2019, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/561 "2019-03-27T16:35:40Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > Grant the requested extension, and stop making things conditionalon holding European elections. Then grant any further extensions requested, so that the UK can in practice only leave by deliberate action, not inaction. They have said that we can have as long an extension as we need, with only two conditions. 1. A decision must be made by April 12th. We cannot just keep debating for eternity, we must choose how (or if) we want to leave. If our chosen course then requires a 2 year extension it will be granted, but we cannot waste another 2 years and still end up with no decision. 2. If an extension takes us into the next EU parliament we must elect representatives for it. Otherwise we would still be a member but have no say in what goes on. Neither of these conditions are unreasonable. > [@Steophan](#): > > This might leave things in limbo for years, but so what? That’s still better than leaving, especially without a deal. On what evidence have you decided that dragging this out for another 2 years would be better for the EU than us leaving now? Either way will cost the EU money, but at least once we’ve left they can start to mitigate their losses. Our departure is also delaying other projects that the EU wants to move on. It is the UK that will (deservedly) suffer the most from from this, the EU will cope fine either way. Just accept that this is entirely the UK’s fault. The EU has been more than fair at every stage of the process. It’s people like you blaming the EU for everything that led to Brexit in the first place. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2019, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/562 "2019-03-27T16:39:52Z")
> [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > Anyway, today’s Parliamentary business is unusual even by recent standards. The House voted earlier to wrest control of the order of business for today from government, and pass it to Members. > > What is happening is that there will be indicative votes! This is an attempt to clarify what members will actually vote for. Sixteen motions were proposed, and the Speaker has selected these eight: > > They are currently debating these motions, and at 7pm the House will recess and MPs will - on green paper ballots, unusually - indicate which options they would be prepared to support. The results will be known around 9pm. The next step, well, I dunno. > > Also today, the Speaker firmly reminded the Government that if the Meaningful Vote is to return to the House for a third time, then it has to meet his change criteria ie not be a tarted up version of the last one. Am I reading this right, that L and M could lead to canceling brexit? ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2019, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/563 "2019-03-27T16:44:50Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Am I reading this right, that L and M could lead to canceling brexit? L, certainly. M, depends on what the putative referendum Bill says I guess. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2019, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/564 "2019-03-27T16:45:09Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > But the certainty of something bad is not better than uncertainty which may lead to a better outcome. It’s not better, either. Or at least not to any degree of certainty. Lopping my hand off is bad. A single pinprick is less bad. A billion pinpricks is worse than losing a hand. Maybe that single pinprick leads to seeing a doctor who diagnoses a previously unknown cancer. So, what? Guarantee that it’s only the single one and not a billion first. And that point has been made repeatedly only to be ignored. There are several ways the uncertainty can be resolved. One is letting the UK go without a deal. Another is granting an extension but in a way that resolves the uncertainty, i.e. by insisting on a viable path forward with firm timeframes, even if the actual exit will end up years away. Right now, there’s only a vague hope that the UK will eventually settle on some exit plan at some hazy future date. I’ve a vague hope of winning the lottery, which is a lot better outcome than quitting my job for better prospects. But I’m not making any life decisions based on the slim hope of winning the lottery. Any firm plan is better than “well, I’ll win the lottery, then, won’t I?” Going back to school, having an offer from a different company, a marriage proposal from a wealthy person, etc. These are all plans that don’t require a miracle to occur first. ---
**Author:** ![DCTrekkie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dctrekkie/32/18862_2.png) [@DCTrekkie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCTrekkie)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2019, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/565 "2019-03-27T16:46:40Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Am I reading this right, that L and M could lead to canceling brexit? Revocation to avoid no deal (L) could, if no other deal is reached. Confirmatory public vote (M) could, depending on the options given for voting. There’s been a lot of debate over whether “Remain” should be an option on any future referendum. It could end up being a straight vote between whatever deal is chosen vs no-deal, with no option to remain. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2019, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/566 "2019-03-27T16:50:31Z")
Also today - the PM will be having a meeting with her backbenchers. There are rumours that she’ll set the date for her resignation. She certainly seemed relatively relaxed at Prime Ministers Questions earlier. ---
**Author:** ![Wrenching\_Spanners](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ecb155/32.png) [@Wrenching\_Spanners](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wrenching_Spanners)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2019, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/567 "2019-03-27T16:51:07Z")
> [@kaylasdad99](#): > > Here’s a question related to the advisory (that is non-compulsory) nature of the referendum. If we posit an alternate universe in which the referendum came back with a “Remain” result, and UKIP gained a majority in Parliament, would PM Farage have been able to invoke Article 50 unilaterally, on the grounds that the referendum was “advisory?” The “would” makes it a legal question. Also, recognise there’s are distinctions between PM Farage, PM Farage’s government, and the UKIP majority. Legally, would PM Farage by himself (or his government) be able to invoke Article 50? No. Legally, would the UKIP majority be able to invoke Article 50? Yes. I think changing the verb to “should” asks a better question. My view is that PM Farage and his government would have a constitutional obligation to respect the referendum. A change in government does not free the new government from legislation and actions of previous governments. However, the strength and manner of that respect would depend on UKIP’s election manifesto, and promises made to the electorate during the campaign. Let’s assume that Farage and UKIP campaigned from day one that they intended to overturn the referendum. It would be clear that the general election was in effect a second referendum. The duty of Farage and Parliament would then be to try and reconcile the two opposing votes, and see if any of the goals of the referendum Remain votes could be met. But yes, in this scenario, Farage should invoke Article 50. In a different alternate universe, consider if the Liberal Democrats had won the 2017 general election. In that universe, PM Vince Cable should consider the referendum Leave majority’s goals, but also should revoke the Article 50 declaration. Going back to PM Farage, let’s change the assumption such that he promised that the UKIP government would not invoke Article 50. Should he then feel free to do an about-face and break his promise? No. He should be obligated and expected to honour his promises, even if that obligation isn’t a legal one. ---
**Author:** ![Wrenching\_Spanners](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ecb155/32.png) [@Wrenching\_Spanners](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wrenching_Spanners)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2019, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/568 "2019-03-27T16:59:15Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > It is both. > > Grant the requested extension, and stop making things conditionalon holding European elections. Then grant any further extensions requested, so that the UK can in practice only leave by deliberate action, not inaction. > > This might leave things in limbo for years, but so what? That’s still better than leaving, especially without a deal. No, that’s horrible. Nearly three years have been sucked up by Brexit. Business confidence is low, the economy is being damped down, and little government action is taking place. And the people of the UK are absolutely sick of Brexit. Maintaining the status quo is the one thing that would be worse than an over-the-cliff No-Deal Brexit. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2019, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/569 "2019-03-27T17:01:32Z")
I’m amazed at Bercow’s strong words regarding ruling out MV3. He says he’s instructed the Table Office to reject any notwithstanding motions to bypass his ruling. That sounds way beyond his remit. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2019, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/570 "2019-03-27T17:08:50Z")
It seems that Rees-Mogg may have destroyed his reputation among hard-line Brexteers for nothing. He has stated that he is now prepared to support May’s withdrawal agreement, despite previously repeatedly condemning it as ‘vassalage’ to the EU. So apparently he now prefers vassalage to the possibility of revoking A50 and staying in the EU on equal (or better) terms to the other members. He is being called a traitor by many on the extreme right… and it may all be for nothing, as Bercow is taking a hard line against MV3, and it may never be put to a vote again anyway. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2019, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/571 "2019-03-27T17:18:00Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > I’m amazed at Bercow’s strong words regarding ruling out MV3. He says he’s instructed the Table Office to reject any notwithstanding motions to bypass his ruling. That sounds way beyond his remit. He is simply saying that he is not going to allow devious technicalities to be used as a way of getting round his ruling on repeat votes. He is on very solid ground in refusing to accept repeat votes. This is well within his remit, but if the Commons doesn’t like it they can vote to overturn his ruling. They won’t. ---
**Author:** ![Wrenching\_Spanners](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ecb155/32.png) [@Wrenching\_Spanners](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wrenching_Spanners)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2019, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/572 "2019-03-27T17:32:15Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > He is simply saying that he is not going to allow devious technicalities to be used as a way of getting round his ruling on repeat votes. He is on very solid ground in refusing to accept repeat votes. > > This is well within his remit, but if the Commons doesn’t like it they can vote to overturn his ruling. They won’t. At this point, it doesn’t look like May will have enough MP’s supporting the WA anyway. But if she did, then wouldn’t Andrea Ledsom be able to question the speaker’s decision using a point of order? I’m not clear on the mechanism, but I believe a point of order was raised last week on some issue, and Bercow backed down rather than seeing the point go to a vote. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2019, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/573 "2019-03-27T17:35:19Z")
May has told Tory MPs she will resign if her withdrawal agreement is passed, before the next phase of Brexit talks - presumably leaving the next phase to the ERG. :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2019, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/574 "2019-03-27T17:58:30Z")
The only reason an ERGer wants her to go after the withdrawal agreement is signed is so they can trash it. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Wrenching\_Spanners](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ecb155/32.png) [@Wrenching\_Spanners](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wrenching_Spanners)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2019, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/575 "2019-03-27T18:00:11Z")
From the BBC: > [@](#): > > Downing Street has now officially confirmed what the prime minister told MPs just now. It is pretty striking stuff. > > “This has been a testing time for our country and our party," she said. > > "We’re nearly there. We’re almost ready to start a new chapter and build that brighter future. "But before we can do that, we have to finish the job in hand. > > “I have heard very clearly the mood of the parliamentary party. I know there is a desire for a new approach – and new leadership – in the second phase of the Brexit negotiations – and I won’t stand in the way of that." > > “I know some people are worried that if you vote for the Withdrawal Agreement, I will take that as a mandate to rush on into phase two without the debate we need to have. I won’t – I hear what you are saying. > > “But we need to get the deal through and deliver Brexit." I’m glad she’s leaving, but still don’t expect that will change enough minds for the Withdrawal Agreement to go through. But between her resignation and whatever the results of the indicative votes, there’s probably enough of an impetus to ask the EU for a longer extension. Which is necessary, but disappointing. ---
**Author:** ![GreysonCarlisle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a87d85/32.png) [@GreysonCarlisle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreysonCarlisle)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2019, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/576 "2019-03-27T18:00:37Z")
> [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > Also today - the PM will be having a meeting with her backbenchers. There are rumours that she’ll set the date for her resignation. She certainly seemed relatively relaxed at Prime Ministers Questions earlier. [Says she’ll step down](https://www.cnn.com/uk/live-news/brexit-parliament-latest-gbr-intl/index.html?adkey=bn) when the deal is “delivered.” ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2019, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/577 "2019-03-27T18:04:59Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > May has told Tory MPs she will resign if her withdrawal agreement is passed, before the next phase of Brexit talks - presumably leaving the next phase to the ERG. :dubious: So if her deal succeeds in passing, she resigns. And if it fails to pass, then she stays? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2019, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/578 "2019-03-27T18:37:39Z")
> [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > So if her deal succeeds in passing, she resigns. And if it fails to pass, then she stays? :dubious: Now that’s what I call serious blackmail! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2019, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/579 "2019-03-27T18:42:59Z")
Yeah, clever. Her Deal won’t pass. The DUP remain opposed. I wouldn’t be surprised if the prospect of a hard right Brexiter becoming Tory leader would put off some Tory moderates from backing the deal. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2019, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/580 "2019-03-27T19:04:08Z")
It’s currently unlikely there’ll even be another vote on the deal, Bercow made it pretty clear that he won’t allow it. It’s an empty threat/promise by May, as there’s pretty much no way that her deal now happens. So, 3 theoretical options. Leave with no deal, revoke Article 50 or negotiate a new deal with the EU. The EU has ruled out the last one, and I simply can’t see May revoking it. So, no deal here we come. I’ve no money to stockpile anything, so I’ll probably be swinging from the rafters shortly. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799.md?page=28) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799.md?page=30)