# What will the UK do wrt Brexit? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 18, 2019, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799 "2019-02-18T22:39:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2019, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/41 "2019-02-19T16:32:39Z")
Well that exchange was hopefully illuminating to everyone reading. A simple “yes” or “no” answer to a very simple question was not forthcoming, for whatever reason. If I had to guess why, it’d be because “yes” is just factually indefensible ([only 28% actually wants a hard brexit](https://www.statista.com/statistics/883660/support-for-brexit-scenarios/), [which is very close to a familiar number…](http://kfmonkey.blogspot.com/2005/10/lunch-discussions-145-crazification.html)), while “no” completely undermines **Quartz** ’s point, as that’s the most obvious meaning of “leave the EU”, but not what we’re talking about. I’m forced to speculate, because he won’t answer the question, but if he’d like to fill us in, he’s welcome to. 🙂 I’m not going to spend any more time trying to understand his position. I mean, maybe he just hasn’t given it much thought - in that case, it’s fair to admit that as well. That whole exchange is kinda funny, right? Now here’s the scary part: somehow, a substantial number of elected officials are operating at that level, to the point where “brexit means brexit” was May’s slogan for quite a while. It’s an asinine slogan, and [it was clear that it was an asinine slogan two and a half years ago](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36782922): > [@](#): > > Mrs May’s slogans, on the other hand, seem firm and unambiguous, but after a little reflection unravel into a world of trouble ahead. > > She rises from the ashes of the defeat of her side in the referendum, but how she copes with its implications will determine her success or failure in No 10. > > “Brexit means Brexit,” does mean of course, that she will take the UK out of the EU. > > About the only thing she said about the whole central matter in her Birmingham speech launching her campaign was: "There will be no attempts to remain inside the EU, no attempts to rejoin it by the back door, and no second referendum. > > “The country voted to leave the European Union, and as prime minister I will make sure that we leave the European Union.” > > While there are many outside Westminster who will be furious (disMayed, even) at that, few inside the Palace can conceive of anything else. MPs will at least now debate the matter, as a sort of consolation prize. > > But the manner of withdrawal, and the subsequent relationship, is up for grabs. It boggles the mind that people find this shit convincing, but that’s where we are. This is why I think the smart money is on a no-deal brexit. And, for what it’s worth, the EU seems to think that as well, as, according to this extremely unreputable source, [they’re preparing to help supply UK food banks with aid in the case of a no-deal brexit](https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1088265/Brexit-latest-news-eu-food-aid-no-deal-brexit-eu-news). Now, the only source I can find for this claim is the Express, which means that I don’t have a source anyone can even remotely take seriously, but even assuming this is all pure hooey, just take a look at how they’re framing this, holy shit! The headline is “EU BLACKMAIL: Brussels threatens FOOD AID to UK in ‘last throw of dice of Project Fear’” That sounds really scary, right? Like the EU is going to take away food aid if the UK leaves? Well, here’s the sub-header. “THE EU is planning to send food aid to feed Britain’s poor in the event of a no deal Brexit, sources in Brussels have revealed.” :smack: “How dare that dastardly EU feed our poor?!” crows the Express, screeching from its offices (which, at this point, I have to assume are made out of the bones of orphans). I wish this whole thing could be funny. Because that’s just objectively funny, right? But it’s a bit like making jokes about life in the aftermath of nuclear war if the Russians pledged to nuke Washington in 30 days if their demands for a free unicorn for every citizen aren’t met - the whole thing has this dark, nasty undertone to it, because a whole lot of people are going to suffer as a result. ☹ It’s gallows humor, and the bitter aftertaste comes mostly from the knowledge that there’s no fucking benefit to it, the UK could stop any time it wants, but seems insistent to jump headlong onto that landmine. It all comes down to a whole lot of people, particularly people in positions of power, being unforgivably stupid. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2019, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/42 "2019-02-19T16:41:48Z")
> [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](#): > > I’m forced to speculate, because he won’t answer the question, but if he’d like to fill us in, he’s welcome to. 🙂 Reported. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2019, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/43 "2019-02-19T16:55:05Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Reported. Aw, bless. Pitted. [https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=871075](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=871075) Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![filmstar-en](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/50afbb/32.png) [@filmstar-en](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmstar-en)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2019, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/44 "2019-02-19T16:55:35Z")
It is true the UK voted to leave the EU. Unfortunately it means leaving all of the 40 or more deals the EU have done with other economies and trading blocs around the world and organising some kind of border between the UK and the EU in Ireland and deal with the re-emergence of a constitutional crisis in Ireland. So Leave means rebuild the entire network of trading relationships between the UK and nearly all its international trading partners. At the same time it requires revisiting the delicate constitutional settlement in NI. These are two quite big problems for any government to solve and they were not foremost in the minds of the general public when they were asked to vote. Most voters in the UK have the haziest notion of how the country trades with other countries and all the know of Northern Ireland is the memories of terrorist bombs and assassinations during the thirty years of the ‘Troubles’. Foremost in their mind was immigration, interference from the EU and the European courts that impact British sovereignty and the financial benefits that would acrue for the NHS if the money sent to the EU was redirected to the Health Service. The Brexit vote created a political imperative that a faction within the Conservative Party seized upon and Theresa May is anxious to appease. Brexit is promoted rather grandly as ‘the democratic will of the British people’ and the politicians live in fear of the reaction of voters who voted to leave. There are predictions of riots and civil unrest unless the UK government delivers Brexit. Sections of the UK press do their best to keep up the pressure the claims heard during the Referendum campaign that all the worries of the consequences of Brexit are part of ‘Project Fear’ conspiracy by the powers that be to keep the status quo. Theresa May insists that the British public simply want the Government to ‘Get on with it’ and stop making such a fuss. She has made it here mission to deliver Brexit for the British people and has been very vague about what it actually means, only that it will somehow be a benefit. Consequently public opinion is confused and divided. The political parties are divided. Both are being driven by factions from the Right and the Left that see a benefit to leaving the EU. The Right think it will usher in a period where the UK leads a charge towards international Free Trade unencumbered by the restrictions of being in trade bloc like the EU. The UK will cut clever, deals with economies across the world and will no longer be held back by the EU. The Left and the faction leading the Labour Party consider the EU to be a capitalist club controlled by the interests of Big business, though they do like some of the EU worker protection policies. What will happen next? As the deadline draws near. May presents this a challenge for the UK parliament to accept her negotiated Withdrawal Agreement or deal with the chaos and confusion that will result from a No Deal. The alternatives that have been proposed by various other factions in her party have been sidelined. Most conspicuously the rather obvious solution that is have another Referendum to see what whether the public still want to go through with it. Pretty soon there will be another vote to see if Parliament will support her deal. If MPs vote against it the country will then have to deal with the consequences and May can lay the blame on Parliament for that happening. If it goes to a No Deal, there will be a political, economic and constitutional crisis that will unfold over the next few years. Rather like in 1940 there will be a ‘phony war’, a period of anxious preparation for the coming tide of challenges begin. The British will don tin hats and look up to the skies once again. Except this time, the enemy is rather less conspicuously bad. It is rather difficult to see constitutional negotiations in Ireland and international trade talks in a heroic light. The economy will be the focus, there may be a run on the Pound and some years of austerity. There will be a succession of crises over immigration and anxious arrangements to stop an exodus of the EU labour crucial to different sections of the economy and most of all, the NHS. If Parliament caves in and supports Mays deal as the lesser of two evils, this will kick the can down the road for another couple of years. The British are inordinately fond of crises and this one will be exquisite because it will be completely self made. Whether any government will convince the public to support a national campaign to deal with these challenges, like a war effort. That I doubt. After all. Half the country will be saying they did not vote for it and those that did will say they they did not vote for the economy to be driven off a cliff, they were told everything would be fine. The next few weeks should be interesting. The Labour party has started to split. It may be that some Conservatives join them. The tensions within the political parties are very tense, but UK politicians tend to put a high premium on party loyalty. In fact, the are concerned rather more with their party infighting than the interests of the nation (though they say the opposite.) Which is why we got into this mess in the first place. Personally, I would have rather more faith that some good would come out of this if there was any sort of credible plan coming out of the government to promote international trade in services. Most of what I am hearing about the UK trade prospects after Brexit are not at all encouraging. UK trade negotiators are inexperienced, the EU did that sort of thing for us. So we have to learn from scratch and it takes two sides to reach any sort of deal. Just because the UK is in a crisis and has to cut deals, it does not mean that the rest of the world has to follow the same timetable. If the UK exits without a deal it undermines the credibility of our negotiators completely. If we treat our neighbours like that, the rest of the world will be right to be cautious in their dealing with the UK. Will May get backing for her deal at the last moment? We will find out in the next few weeks. I suspect there are going to be some resignations. May might even call a General Election if she loses a vote. That would be a good reason to delay the leave deadline. ---
**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2019, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/45 "2019-02-19T16:56:21Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Reported. I’m sure there’s a great “project fear” joke in here somewhere but I can’t find it for the life of me. ---
**Author:** ![Bone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bone/32/407_2.png) [@Bone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bone)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2019, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/46 "2019-02-19T16:57:39Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Reported. Thanks for the report. Generally, unless it’s spam we prefer to not publicly indicate a post report. I wrote about this previously here: > [@"Publicly indicating a Post Report"](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/publicly-indicating-a-post-report/787790/3): > > In general, private reports are preferable because of the aforementioned potential of junior modding, and also to avoid the potential disagreement with the report. There is also the potential back and forth between posters saying they are reporting each other’s posts. [/moderating] ---
**Author:** ![Inner\_Stickler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inner_stickler/32/318_2.png) [@Inner\_Stickler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inner_Stickler)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2019, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/47 "2019-02-19T17:02:55Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > As I have also repeatedly said, Brexit is a decision I respect more than like. Do you believe in democracy? If you do, you must respect votes which do not go your way. Or are you a wannabe dictator? How is holding a second referendum dictatorial? It strikes me as the very opposite of that. It sounds to me like the leavers are worried they wouldn’t win a second vote. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2019, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/48 "2019-02-19T17:35:09Z")
> [@Inner\_Stickler](#): > > How is holding a second referendum dictatorial? The result of the first has yet to be implemented. Should the US have another presidential election just because Trump won (okay, poor example :)) Should the UK have another general election just because? > [@](#): > > It strikes me as the very opposite of that. It sounds to me like the leavers are worried they wouldn’t win a second vote. And if the second results in another vote for leave, should we have a third? A fourth? Dammit, we’ll keep them voting until they give the answer we want! We live in a democracy. The democratic vote was to leave. In due course, the UK may apply to re-join the EU. I hope it does, and I hope that the EU gives us terms that the majority can accept. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2019, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/49 "2019-02-19T17:37:41Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Reported. I’d really prefer you just report a post and not announce you did so. It seems overly hostile. ---
**Author:** ![Inner\_Stickler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inner_stickler/32/318_2.png) [@Inner\_Stickler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inner_Stickler)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2019, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/50 "2019-02-19T17:45:32Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > The result of the first has yet to be implemented. Should the US have another presidential election just because Trump won (okay, poor example :)) Should the UK have another general election just because? > > And if the second results in another vote for leave, should we have a third? A fourth? Dammit, we’ll keep them voting until they give the answer we want! > > We live in a democracy. The democratic vote was to leave. In due course, the UK may apply to re-join the EU. I hope it does, and I hope that the EU gives us terms that the majority can accept. If the mechanism exists for holding an election or referendum ad hoc at will and the requirements for it are met, why not? If politicians start calling for too many expensive public referendums, the voters can elect new politicians who promise not to do that or pass legislation to change the rules. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2019, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/51 "2019-02-19T17:52:12Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > The result of the first has yet to be implemented. Should the US have another presidential election just because Trump won (okay, poor example :)) Should the UK have another general election just because? You have a system in which the Government has broad discretion to call for an election when they please, but for some reason calling for a vote when a major policy initiative is at an impasse is foul play? Explain that one to me. I recognize that there’s quite a few people in Britain who think that a second referendum is unseemly. I quite simply do not understand this point of view. To my ears, it strikes me similarly to someone arguing, “The country already voted for Trump in 2016… and now you want to vote again in 2020? The people have spoken!!!” ---
**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2019, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/52 "2019-02-19T17:57:23Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > And if the second results in another vote for leave, should we have a third? A fourth? Dammit, we’ll keep them voting until they give the answer we want! You keep rehashing these same nonsensical talking points thread after thread, and we keep on explaining how you’re wrong, but somehow it never sticks. I recommend anyone curious about the talking points brought up here to read [this thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=865453). Or at least a few posts from pages 6 and 7. There’s really no point in going over them again; suffice it to say that anyone who thinks we should be unwilling to readjucate political decisions two years later before they were actually implemented must have a very dim view of the house of representatives, where the 2016 mandate to repeal and replace Obamacare was never achieved, but nontheless in 2018 the party who promised it was swept out of office. ---
**Author:** ![Nava](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/da6949/32.png) [@Nava](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nava)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2019, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/53 "2019-02-19T18:05:35Z")
> [@filmstar-en](#): > > Half the country will be saying they did not vote for it and those that did will say they they did not vote for the economy to be driven off a cliff, they were told everything would be fine. Ah, but it’s not their fault. It’s the fault of Brussels, same as Catexiters claim that it’s the fault of Madrid that Barcelona-defined income tax is the highest in Spain (each region defines its own tax brackets). So long as you have someone to blame, you don’t have to admit fault. ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2019, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/54 "2019-02-19T18:08:57Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > The UK voted to leave the EU. It’s as simple as that. What treaties an independent UK chooses to negotiate are up to the UK and its treaty partners; I hope the UK negotiates a good deal with the EU. Oh yes It is eaxtly you were promised a Simple Magical Suspension Bridge that would only cost you very little money to cross the ocean. Very simple, you just have to declare it… ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2019, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/55 "2019-02-19T18:19:24Z")
> [@Inner\_Stickler](#): > > If the mechanism exists for holding an election or referendum ad hoc at will and the requirements for it are met, why not? If politicians start calling for too many expensive public referendums, the voters can elect new politicians who promise not to do that or pass legislation to change the rules. One True Vote One Time. It is very People’s Republic totally non dicatatorial very super simple democratic. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2019, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/56 "2019-02-19T18:23:46Z")
Also, IIRC, there was nothing binding about the original referendum. If so, how can it be an abridgment of democracy to hold another referendum? ---
**Author:** ![Wrenching\_Spanners](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ecb155/32.png) [@Wrenching\_Spanners](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wrenching_Spanners)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2019, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/57 "2019-02-19T18:29:10Z")
> [@Inner\_Stickler](#): > > How is holding a second referendum dictatorial? It strikes me as the very opposite of that. It sounds to me like the leavers are worried they wouldn’t win a second vote. Two plus years ago, a second referendum would have been dictatorial because the UK had just had a vote. “You voted wrong! Do it again!” Now it’s a legitimate option for the government, but it’s not a very popular one. There’s been some fairly large protests demanding a second referendum, but the protestors are seemingly all people that voted Remain in the first place. There’s been no significant outcry from voters who’ve changed their minds. And the general public sentiment, rather than desiring a revote, is for the government to just get on with it. Also, a second referendum is impossible for May politically, and overall quite unlikely. May’s spent the past two and a half years promising Brexit. I’m sure she actually wants to deliver her form of Brexit. But at this point for her, it’s either succeed or resign. A staunch Remainer could then try to win the leadership of the Conservative Party, but that would be a longshot. And then that new leader would still face all the same issues of party infighting going on now. That new prime minister could conceivably then try to secure a mandate through a general election. But trying to predict anything at that point, my crystal ball is vibrating violently and shooting out sparks. ---
**Author:** ![Wrenching\_Spanners](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ecb155/32.png) [@Wrenching\_Spanners](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wrenching_Spanners)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2019, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/58 "2019-02-19T18:55:04Z")
> [@Ramira](#): > > Oh yes > > It is eaxtly you were promised a Simple Magical Suspension Bridge that would only cost you very little money to cross the ocean. > > Very simple, you just have to declare it… In fairness to people who voted to exit 2 1/2 years ago, I don’t think anyone was predicting that Conservative Party infighting would be this bad. I remember a discussion before the vote where I conceded that a well executed Brexit would be worthwhile.\* However I wasn’t conceding that the government would actually be able to carry out a good Brexit against the opposition of the EU Commission. But I had no concept that the government would be as calamitous as it’s been. \*I still thought the cost of Brexit wouldn’t be worth the benefits because of the loss mutual regulation recognition, the loss of win-win collaborations such as the European Medical Agency, and the EU creating regulations to poach business sectors such as euro clearing. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2019, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/59 "2019-02-19T19:35:07Z")
Look, chaps, you’ve had your winter of discontent. It was truly the _pshaw_-ed heard 'round the world. Now settle down with a nice cuppa and let this one go, wot? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2019, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/60 "2019-02-19T19:41:59Z")
I still can’t believe May would let it go all the way to the clear ruin of hard Brexit. Surely she has enough sense to withdraw A50 the minute before she resigns, hasn’t she? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799.md?page=4)