# What will the UK do wrt Brexit? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 18, 2019, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799 "2019-02-18T22:39:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 54
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 12:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1061 "2019-04-23T12:44:05Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > I’m not seeing that here. I’m not seeing pro-Brexit voters becoming apathetic. Disillusioned, somewhat, but more significantly it’s become clear that there isn’t one pro-Brexit side: there are many, and what different groups are willing to accept in order to achieve an exit from the EU varies wildly amongst them. Whether the softer-Brexit groups would side with Remain or Leave in the event of another referendum, given what we now know about the real effects of leaving the EU, remains to be seen. I wouldn’t make any facile assumptions at this point. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1062 "2019-04-23T15:39:36Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > I’m not seeing pro-Brexit voters becoming apathetic. Disillusioned, somewhat, but more significantly it’s become clear that there isn’t one pro-Brexit side: there are many, and what different groups are willing to accept in order to achieve an exit from the EU varies wildly amongst them. > > Whether the softer-Brexit groups would side with Remain or Leave in the event of another referendum, given what we now know about the real effects of leaving the EU, remains to be seen. I wouldn’t make any facile assumptions at this point. The other question is how, given the chance, people would order their preferences. E.g. if there was a referendum with 1)Remain, 2)Customs Union, 3)May’s Deal, 4)No Deal as the options, would “Leavers” put all three Brexit options ahead of Remain, in which case the UK would leave _somehow_ or would you have Remain coming out as a second or poss 3rd preference that attracts more votes than any of the other individual options? It’s an academic question because the chance of the UK doing anything as radical as presenting multiple options in a referendum and allowing/trusting people to set preferences is pretty small. But I’d be genuinely interested to see e.g. how big hte oppostion to No Deal among Leave voters is. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1063 "2019-04-23T16:55:12Z")
Farage’s Brexit party seems to be gathering people from both Left and Right - even Galloway has endorsed it. And two of the prospective candidates, Claire Fox and Alka Sehgal Cuthbert, are alleged to be Trotskyist. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1064 "2019-04-23T17:43:47Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > And two of the prospective candidates, Claire Fox and Alka Sehgal Cuthbert, are alleged to be Trotskyist. Both part of the Revolutionary Communist Party/Living Marxism/Spiked cult. They aren’t Trotskyist, or even Left, in any meaningful sense these days. A fair bit of genocide denial, in amongst all the libertarian contrarianism, is more their bag. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2019, 11:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1065 "2019-04-24T11:37:14Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > The other question is how, given the chance, people would order their preferences. E.g. if there was a referendum with 1)Remain, 2)Customs Union, 3)May’s Deal, 4)No Deal as the options, would “Leavers” put all three Brexit options ahead of Remain, in which case the UK would leave _somehow_ or would you have Remain coming out as a second or poss 3rd preference that attracts more votes than any of the other individual options? > > It’s an academic question because the chance of the UK doing anything as radical as presenting multiple options in a referendum and allowing/trusting people to set preferences is pretty small. But I’d be genuinely interested to see e.g. how big hte oppostion to No Deal among Leave voters is. And here is that question answered: [The crazy polling of Soft Brexit](https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2019/04/23/the-crazy-polling-of-soft-brexit) In a 4 way poll with Soft Brexit instead of my Customs Union option above, you can construct two perfectly rational analyses that Soft Brexit wins, and one where it loses immediately and Remain wins. The methods are: 1. Condorcet: which option wins the most 1:1s (e.g Soft Brexit vs Remain, No Deal vs May’s Deal). Do this, and you find that the majority of people rank Soft Brexit higher than May’s Deal (62%), No Deal (61%) and Remain (51%). NB that this is just relative ranking - being the 3rd vs the 4th option counts just as much as being 1st vs 2nd or 1st vs 4th. What this method shows is that compared to any other option, Soft Brexit is what most people would prefer. 2. Alternative Vote. If no option has a majority of 1st preferences, sack off the option with fewest 1st preferences and redistribute those people’s second preferences. And repeat as necessary. Under this analysis, Soft Brexit is the first option to lose and Remain eventually scrapes a narrow majority over No Deal. This method delivers the result that most people want most - but it tends to be divisive on this question. 3. Coombs method. A reverse of AV above - in this case you rank the options on which has the most 4th preference votes (i.e. the option that is most unwanted) and dump the least popular on successive rounds. On this method Soft Brexit wins vs May’s Deal, because Leave and Remain are both heavily unpopular as well as heavily popular. Pick the bones out of that. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2019, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1066 "2019-04-24T13:42:43Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Farage’s Brexit party seems to be gathering people from both Left and Right - even Galloway has endorsed it. And two of the prospective candidates, Claire Fox and Alka Sehgal Cuthbert, are alleged to be Trotskyist. Contrarian publicity-hounds unite! You have nothing to lose but your spot on Strictly Come Dancing! ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2019, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1067 "2019-04-24T14:18:15Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > And here is that question answered: [The crazy polling of Soft Brexit](https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2019/04/23/the-crazy-polling-of-soft-brexit) > > In a 4 way poll with Soft Brexit instead of my Customs Union option above, you can construct two perfectly rational analyses that Soft Brexit wins, and one where it loses immediately and Remain wins. The methods are: > > 1. Condorcet: which option wins the most 1:1s (e.g Soft Brexit vs Remain, No Deal vs May’s Deal). Do this, and you find that the majority of people rank Soft Brexit higher than May’s Deal (62%), No Deal (61%) and Remain (51%). NB that this is just relative ranking - being the 3rd vs the 4th option counts just as much as being 1st vs 2nd or 1st vs 4th. What this method shows is that compared to any other option, Soft Brexit is what most people would prefer. > > 2. Alternative Vote. If no option has a majority of 1st preferences, sack off the option with fewest 1st preferences and redistribute those people’s second preferences. And repeat as necessary. Under this analysis, Soft Brexit is the first option to lose and Remain eventually scrapes a narrow majority over No Deal. This method delivers the result that most people want most - but it tends to be divisive on this question. > > 3. Coombs method. A reverse of AV above - in this case you rank the options on which has the most 4th preference votes (i.e. the option that is most unwanted) and dump the least popular on successive rounds. On this method Soft Brexit wins vs May’s Deal, because Leave and Remain are both heavily unpopular as well as heavily popular. > > Pick the bones out of that. That goddam Arrow! Why’d he have to come up with the Theorem of Impossibility? Makes everything so difficult. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2019, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1068 "2019-04-24T15:44:58Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > That goddam Arrow! Why’d he have to come up with the Theorem of Impossibility? Makes everything so difficult. It’s almost as if there are some questions where you cannot merely try to satisfy some notional majority, but have to have people charged with making a clear-headed assessment of the best interests of the nation as they see them and deciding policy accordingly - regardless of its apparent popularity. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2019, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1069 "2019-04-24T16:09:10Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > It’s almost as if there are some questions where you cannot merely try to satisfy some notional majority, but have to have people charged with making a clear-headed assessment of the best interests of the nation as they see them and deciding policy accordingly - regardless of its apparent popularity. That sounds like a good system. Any idea where one might find people who will act in the best interests of the nation without regard to the apparent popularity of those actions? ---
**Author:** ![Wrenching\_Spanners](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ecb155/32.png) [@Wrenching\_Spanners](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wrenching_Spanners)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2019, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1070 "2019-04-24T16:14:40Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > And here is that question answered: [The crazy polling of Soft Brexit](https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2019/04/23/the-crazy-polling-of-soft-brexit) Interesting. In a nuanced poll, where voters were able to vote on some form of Brexit or Remain, only 45% voted for Remain as their first choice. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2019, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1071 "2019-04-24T16:26:17Z")
The country favours a soft Brexit overall, but at this stage of the game I think the polarisation of the country has scotched the chances of its stability. And time is fast running out. A soft Brexit consensus should have been sought three years ago, not during a six month extension to the deadline. ---
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2019, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1072 "2019-04-24T23:50:38Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > … > Pick the bones out of that. Alternatively there could be a 2 question referendum like New Zealand did with it’s voting system back in the '90s; the 2nd question only becomes relevant if the Leave wins again on the 1st question. Question 1) _Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?_ Question 2) _Should the United Kingdom leave the European Union under the proposed withdrawal agreement_ or without an agreement?\* \*This is whatever agreement the government of the day negotiates with the EU, not necessarily the one currently on table. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2019, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1073 "2019-04-25T00:53:32Z")
> [@alphaboi867](#): > > Alternatively there could be a 2 question referendum like New Zealand did with it’s voting system back in the '90s; the 2nd question only becomes relevant if the Leave wins again on the 1st question. > > Question 1) _Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?_ > > Question 2) _Should the United Kingdom leave the European Union under the proposed withdrawal agreement_ or without an agreement?\* > > \*This is whatever agreement the government of the day negotiates with the EU, not necessarily the one currently on table. No. There are a significant number of people for whom the first preference is a hard Brexit who have as their second preference remaining in the EU. With a hard Brexit you have sovereignty. If you remain in the EU you have a place at the table making the rules. For a soft Brexit you have neither–you have to accept the rules the EU adopts, but you don’t have a voice in making them. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2019, 6:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1074 "2019-04-25T06:27:06Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Farage’s Brexit party seems to be gathering people from both Left and Right - even Galloway has endorsed it. And two of the prospective candidates, Claire Fox and Alka Sehgal Cuthbert, are alleged to be Trotskyist. If Galloway or some Trotskyists support something, that’s very nearly conclusive proof that it’s absolutely wrong. If they’re the only names Faragé can get then it shows his party is screwed. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2019, 11:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1075 "2019-04-25T11:29:36Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > That sounds like a good system. Any idea where one might find people who will act in the best interests of the nation without regard to the apparent popularity of those actions? Don’t pester me with these pettifogging details, I’ve got a vision to share. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2019, 1:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1076 "2019-04-25T13:49:46Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > No. There are a significant number of people for whom the first preference is a hard Brexit who have as their second preference remaining in the EU. With a hard Brexit you have sovereignty. If you remain in the EU you have a place at the table making the rules. For a soft Brexit you have neither–you have to accept the rules the EU adopts, but you don’t have a voice in making them. Arguably you have the latter under no deal too. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Colophon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f05b48/32.png) [@Colophon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colophon)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2019, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1077 "2019-04-25T14:09:28Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > I’m not seeing pro-Brexit voters becoming apathetic. Disillusioned, somewhat, but more significantly it’s become clear that there isn’t one pro-Brexit side: there are many, and what different groups are willing to accept in order to achieve an exit from the EU varies wildly amongst them. > > Whether the softer-Brexit groups would side with Remain or Leave in the event of another referendum, given what we now know about the real effects of leaving the EU, remains to be seen. I wouldn’t make any facile assumptions at this point. What I’m seeing is that many Leave voters seem to have convinced themselves (or been gaslit by the media into believing) that they actually voted to leave without a deal. Even though the Leave literature before the referendum specifically promised that no moves to leave would be made until a deal had been agreed! ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2019, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1078 "2019-04-25T17:47:49Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > Arguably you have the latter under no deal too. Only for British companies who want to export goods and services to the EU–and this is only a small percent of the British and these rules encompass only a small percent of total EU regulation. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2019, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1079 "2019-04-25T18:08:46Z")
Can you explain that? According to this Research Note prepared by the British parliamentary library, 44% of the UK’s exports go to the EU, which is Britain’s single largest trading partner. [https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7851](https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7851) ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2019, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1080 "2019-04-25T18:32:24Z")
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