# What will the UK do wrt Brexit? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 18, 2019, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799 "2019-02-18T22:39:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 67
**Author:** ![Les\_Espaces\_Du\_Sommeil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/les_espaces_du_sommeil/32/308_2.png) [@Les\_Espaces\_Du\_Sommeil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Les_Espaces_Du_Sommeil)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2019, 9:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1321 "2019-05-31T09:40:13Z")
> [@DemonTree](#): > > I know it must seem unreasonable, but you’ve got to remember that the members in favour of those ideas got their way in a much larger sense. The UK didn’t want the Euro or a shared immigration area, and would rather dispense with or reform the CAP. The UK didn’t want the EU to be a political union at all, let alone support ‘ever closer union’. And despite the opt out, Britain has still been affected by the economic problems caused by the Euro, and is still subject to the not-so-wonderful EU rules on agriculture, among other things. I see your point. However, again considered from one of the founding members of the EEC, the view is that no country has had the privileges and opt-outs that the UK has been offered. Yet, in spite of this privileged status, the UK has, frankly speaking, often behaved in a way that was justifiably seen as arrogant and entitled. And hearing now the hopelessly simplistic “arguments” and the hatred spewed by some Brexiters against the EU is grating, to say the least. Perhaps it all boils down to a difference in appreciation of the EU’s goal. I think that for the founding members, it was as much an economic and political project as a higher _ideal_, with former seen as a means to approach the latter. The UK seems to have never really cared for this, perhaps even resented it. [‘Swallow the lot, and swallow it now’.](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/11/09/swallow-the-lot-and-swallow-it-now-britain-is-and-was-deluded-about-its-negotiating-power-with-the-eu/) ---
**Author:** ![DemonTree](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/demontree/32/8646_2.png) [@DemonTree](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DemonTree)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2019, 9:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1322 "2019-05-31T09:42:23Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > If that’s the best you can come up with, it’s pitiful. I’m not endorsing them, I’m pointing out that widely read newspapers are still claiming Brexit will be economically beneficial, and many people believe them. ---
**Author:** ![Wrenching\_Spanners](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ecb155/32.png) [@Wrenching\_Spanners](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wrenching_Spanners)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2019, 9:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1323 "2019-05-31T09:55:31Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > That you know it was advisory shows that, somehow, you obtained that knowledge. It seems that the government either lied about that or, by omission, mislead people. That hardly makes it _better_ to expect them to follow it, to expect them to do something that was only ever “authorised” through lies and deception. I know the referendum was non-binding because Remainers started whining that the referendum was non-binding after they lost. And then I researched it and found out the reason - the referendum was non-binding by default because of the sovereignty of Parliament. There may have been some debate on whether to make the referendum binding or not. However, I’m not aware of any vote or any public statement declaring the referendum would be non-binding. I’d be quite happy for anyone to point out either of those occurrences. By the way, here’s your words from post #1442: “We were told the referendum was non-binding.” Where and when? > [@](#): > > As for “the government” implementing Brexit, that ended when the government changed, as one government cannot bind the next. Whether you consider that as happening when Cameron resigned, or after the general election, doesn’t really matter. Neither the current government nor any future one is bound by law or custom to follow the advice given in the referendum, and as to follow it would be profoundly damaging to the UK they are ethically bound not to follow it. And has been pointed out several times, the current government, and the opposition for that matter, campaigned on promises they would respect the Leave vote. After the election, the government enacted leaving the EU into law with the bill to invoke Article 50. So it’s pointless what weight you put on the promises of Cameron’s administration versus the legality that the referendum was non-binding. For that matter, Parliament has had opportunities since the invocation of Article 50 to vote for Article 50 revocation or a second referendum. Those votes have failed. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2019, 10:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1324 "2019-05-31T10:15:55Z")
I’m bowing out of this thread. Bluntly you’ve been a bunch of cunts, the mods have done fuck all, and it got to me and I had a sleepless night. Life’s too short so carry on enjoy the death of democracy. ---
**Author:** ![DemonTree](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/demontree/32/8646_2.png) [@DemonTree](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DemonTree)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2019, 10:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1325 "2019-05-31T10:21:14Z")
> [@Les\_Espaces\_Du\_Sommeil](#): > > I see your point. However, again considered from one of the founding members of the EEC, the view is that no country has had the privileges and opt-outs that the UK has been offered. Yet, in spite of this privileged status, the UK has, frankly speaking, often behaved in a way that was justifiably seen as arrogant and entitled. And hearing now the hopelessly simplistic “arguments” and the hatred spewed by some Brexiters against the EU is grating, to say the least. > > Perhaps it all boils down to a difference in appreciation of the EU’s goal. I think that for the founding members, it was as much an economic and political project as a higher _ideal_, with former seen as a means to approach the latter. The UK seems to have never really cared for this, perhaps even resented it. [‘Swallow the lot, and swallow it now’.](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/11/09/swallow-the-lot-and-swallow-it-now-britain-is-and-was-deluded-about-its-negotiating-power-with-the-eu/) Yeah, the ‘higher ideal’ aspect has never been popular here, nor have our politicians ever tried to sell it to the public. The official Remain campaign was all about how terrible leaving would be economically, with much scaremongering and nothing positive or aspirational at all. I was sad but not surprised when Leave won. Fundamentally, most Brits don’t agree with the direction the EU is going, and feel we will always be outvoted by the other members, and in particular France and Germany. Opt-outs make the ride easier to tolerate but aren’t the same as getting to go to your desired destination. But yeah, Brexit has brought out all the worse of nonsensical arguments, lies and half-truths, and unreasonable demands. Some people wouldn’t be happy with any union they didn’t 100% control, compromise is a dirty word to them. ---
**Author:** ![Slow\_Moving\_Vehicle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slow_moving_vehicle/32/291_2.png) [@Slow\_Moving\_Vehicle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slow_Moving_Vehicle)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2019, 11:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1326 "2019-05-31T11:08:33Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > I’m bowing out of this thread. > > Bluntly you’ve been a bunch of cunts, the mods have done fuck all, and it got to me and I had a sleepless night. Life’s too short so carry on enjoy the death of democracy. **Quartz** , that’s probably for the best, if all this is causing you actual sleepless nights. Relax, take a walk, have a cup of English penicillin - tea - and tell yourself “It’s just a debate with strangers on the internet. Not worth stressing out over.” Though you probably will earn a warning for insults in GD. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2019, 11:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1327 "2019-05-31T11:20:22Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > I’m bowing out of this thread. > > Bluntly you’ve been a bunch of cunts, the mods have done fuck all, and it got to me and I had a sleepless night. Life’s too short so carry on enjoy the death of democracy. Yeah, that’ll earn you a warning, Quartz. We have the BBQ Pit for a reason. Although, Slow Moving Vehicle? I think we’d all appreciate a lack of prediction about warnings. I get where you’re coming from but it’s unhelpful. ---
**Author:** ![Slow\_Moving\_Vehicle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slow_moving_vehicle/32/291_2.png) [@Slow\_Moving\_Vehicle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slow_Moving_Vehicle)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2019, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1328 "2019-05-31T13:08:33Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > Yeah, that’ll earn you a warning, Quartz. We have the BBQ Pit for a reason. > > Although, Slow Moving Vehicle? I think we’d all appreciate a lack of prediction about warnings. I get where you’re coming from but it’s unhelpful. Ah? _Mea culpa_. Didn’t realize that would be a problem. My apologies. ---
**Author:** ![Antonius\_Block](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/51bf81/32.png) [@Antonius\_Block](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Antonius_Block)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2019, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1329 "2019-05-31T15:58:22Z")
> [@Wrenching\_Spanners](#): > > However, I’m not aware of any vote or any public statement declaring the referendum would be non-binding. I’d be quite happy for anyone to point out either of those occurrences. The House of Commons Library contains [Briefing Paper Number 07212 (3 June 2015) for the European Union Referendum Bill 2015-16](http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7212/CBP-7212.pdf) [33-page PDF]. From Section 5 of this, on page 25, “Types of Referendum”: > [@](#): > > This Bill requires a referendum to be held on the question of the UK’s continued membership of the European Union (EU) before the end of 2017. **It does not contain any requirement for the UK Government to implement the results of the referendum, nor set a time limit by which a vote to leave the EU should be implemented. Instead, this is a type of referendum known as pre-legislative or consultative, which enables the electorate to voice an opinion which then influences the Government in its policy decisions.** The referendums held in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland in 1997 and 1998 are examples of this type, where opinion was tested before legislation was introduced. **The UK does not have constitutional provisions which would require the results of a referendum to be implemented** , unlike, for example, the Republic of Ireland, where the circumstances in which a binding referendum should be held are set out in its constitution. _[bolding mine]_ This is the Bill that was passed by Parliament, leading to the June 2016 Referendum. [According to A.C. Grayling](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/09/28/the-eu-referendum-was-gerrymandered/): > [@](#): > > This point was iterated viva voce by the Minister for Europe in the debate in the House of Commons later that month. This was the reason given for not including a threshold and for not extending the franchise appropriately. When David Cameron wrote in his pamphlet **“This is your decision. The Government will implement what you decide.”** , he was making a promise that was beyond the scope of his powers as Prime Minister. Of course, history shows that the Referendum was viewed as being politically binding almost as soon as the results were declared. I personally wonder if this would have happened so quickly if Cameron had not included the quoted statement in the pamphlet. ---
**Author:** ![Wrenching\_Spanners](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ecb155/32.png) [@Wrenching\_Spanners](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wrenching_Spanners)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2019, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1330 "2019-05-31T16:20:45Z")
> [@Antonius\_Block](#): > > The House of Commons Library contains [Briefing Paper Number 07212 (3 June 2015) for the European Union Referendum Bill 2015-16](http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7212/CBP-7212.pdf) [33-page PDF]. > > From Section 5 of this, on page 25, “Types of Referendum”: Thanks. It’s good to know there was a publication that actually spelled that out. At least for the people who read House of Commons briefing papers. ---
**Author:** ![Les\_Espaces\_Du\_Sommeil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/les_espaces_du_sommeil/32/308_2.png) [@Les\_Espaces\_Du\_Sommeil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Les_Espaces_Du_Sommeil)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2019, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1331 "2019-05-31T16:27:52Z")
> [@DemonTree](#): > > … > > Fundamentally, most Brits don’t agree with the direction the EU is going, and feel we will always be outvoted by the other members, and in particular France and Germany. Opt-outs make the ride easier to tolerate but aren’t the same as getting to go to your desired destination. > > … And yet, the UK definitely had the clout and ability to play the role of co-engine of the EU along with France and Germany if only it had embraced the ideal. What could have been… ☹ ---
**Author:** ![DemonTree](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/demontree/32/8646_2.png) [@DemonTree](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DemonTree)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2019, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1332 "2019-05-31T17:32:43Z")
> [@Les\_Espaces\_Du\_Sommeil](#): > > And yet, the UK definitely had the clout and ability to play the role of co-engine of the EU along with France and Germany if only it had embraced the ideal. What could have been… ☹ Indeed. Our PMs have rather consistently shown a lack of both imagination and ambition when it comes to the EU. The underwhelming changes negotiated by Cameron are a case in point. If you want to know some specific Brexiter complaints, one was that the EU’s accounts haven’t been signed off in years, another is selective enforcement of the laws; for example, letting France and Germany break the rule on government deficits with no repercussions, but enforcing it on smaller countries like Portugal and Greece. They were also angry that Merkel broke the EU’s own rules on asylum seekers, with obvious repercussions for other members, without any kind of pushback from the EU. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2019, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1333 "2019-05-31T18:16:16Z")
Hard to believe that Quartz has stepped away from a Brexit thread. Unprecedented scenes. So, when does everyone think that the next request to extend Article 50 happens? Third week in September? ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2019, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1334 "2019-05-31T18:52:48Z")
> [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > Hard to believe that Quartz has stepped away from a Brexit thread. Unprecedented scenes. > > So, when does everyone think that the next request to extend Article 50 happens? Third week in September? Fourth week in October. And as much as I really don’t want a No-Deal Brexit, part of me really hopes the EU says “Enough of this fuckwittery. No. Screw you.” (To which I hope the response is a sincere apology and an immediate withdrawal of Article 50. And I’d like a pony.) ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2019, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1335 "2019-05-31T19:04:09Z")
> [@Dr.Drake](#): > > Fourth week in October. And as much as I really don’t want a No-Deal Brexit, part of me really hopes the EU says “Enough of this fuckwittery. No. Screw you.” (To which I hope the response is a sincere apology and an immediate withdrawal of Article 50. And I’d like a pony.) On balance I think that is still in the EU’s best interest to allow Britain to continue to make an absolute shambles of the attempt to leave. A No-Deal Brexit just restarts the Deal process from the beginning again, after all. ---
**Author:** ![Wrenching\_Spanners](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ecb155/32.png) [@Wrenching\_Spanners](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wrenching_Spanners)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2019, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1336 "2019-05-31T21:23:46Z")
> [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > Hard to believe that Quartz has stepped away from a Brexit thread. While I do not wish to be “junior modding”, may I politely note my viewpoint that there was a bit of “piling on” against Quartz? I am enthusiastically in favour of robust debates - it’s part of the entertainment. However, I would say that I’ve been considerably more contentious towards Remainers than Quartz, but have received far less opposition. I’m sure that’s due to my superior debating skills.😉 Nevertheless, it’s a bit churlish to take a shot at someone after he’s exited the field. ---
**Author:** ![Wrenching\_Spanners](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ecb155/32.png) [@Wrenching\_Spanners](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wrenching_Spanners)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2019, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1337 "2019-05-31T21:54:45Z")
> [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > So, when does everyone think that the next request to extend Article 50 happens? Third week in September? So far, I’ve made one accurate prediction about Brexit, which is that May’s fourth withdrawal agreement vote would not go forward. Therefore, I agree with your prediction. I have no idea if I’m on a roll, or if I’ve just doomed your prediction. I think that the next Tory leader has to do something different. I don’t think they’ll be able to go back to the EU for renegotiation of the withdrawal agreement, nor do I believe they’ll be able to continue the failure treadmill May was on. My guess at this point is that the next PM will be a no-deal Brexiter, get blocked from pursuing no-deal, lose a vote of no confidence, and then a general election will be called. It will then be a polarised election of no-deal versus second referendum, which second referendum will win. Followed of course, by an extension request for time to hold the second referendum, occurring at the date you’ve stated. Bookies will smile at you if you bet based on my predictions. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2019, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1338 "2019-05-31T22:13:25Z")
> [@Wrenching\_Spanners](#): > > Bookies will smile at you if you bet based on my predictions. I used to think I had a pretty decent grasp of how things would pan out politically, and was mostly right because things were pretty dull and obvious. These days though!? WTAF ---
**Author:** ![williambaskerville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f14d63/32.png) [@williambaskerville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/williambaskerville)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2019, 6:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1339 "2019-06-01T06:20:43Z")
> [@Wrenching\_Spanners](#): > > I think that the next Tory leader has to do something different. I don’t think they’ll be able to go back to the EU for renegotiation of the withdrawal agreement Just to make a point that often gets overlooked :- the WA is as it is for two reasons :- British red lines and DUP insistence on no Irish Sea border checks (even though there already are some). If those factors change, the EU will happily renegotiate the WA. Having said that, it’s hard to see which of those factors a new Tory leader can change, given the HOC arithmetic. The DUP veto is especially frustrating, given that they in no sense speak for the people of Northern Ireland (which voted to remain and just elected 2 pro-remain MEPS out of 3). ---
**Author:** ![Ximenean](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/aca169/32.png) [@Ximenean](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ximenean)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2019, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1340 "2019-06-01T15:20:37Z")
> [@UDS](#): > > […] One of the reasons you have difficulty recalling the various projections > […] > The case for Brexit is no longer advanced on economic grounds by any significant voices 1. Thanks, Dad. 2. I said that the economic case against Brexit was exaggerated, not incorrect. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799.md?page=66) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799.md?page=68)