# What will the UK do wrt Brexit? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 18, 2019, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799 "2019-02-18T22:39:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 89
**Author:** ![DemonTree](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/demontree/32/8646_2.png) [@DemonTree](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DemonTree)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2020, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1763 "2020-12-28T21:17:44Z")
> [@casdave](#): > > Well history has the answer, Leavers are prepared to accept the cost of their choice and I doubt that many believe that there will not be significant negative consequencies, Remainers seem to think Leavers were totally misled and conned, but you’ll find that most of them were not, and do expect things to become more difficult for a time. That is a price they have deemed acceptable. The cost of loss of sovereignty - as demonstrated of lack of border control policy is a price to great for them I saw leavers before the vote saying we’d all be better off, the UK economy would grow massively, it would be easy to get a deal and the UK held all the cards. Believing everything they read in the Express… there was plenty of delusion on display. Some would admit there might be small temporary costs, that was all. I also have a friend who voted Leave because he’s convinced the EU is going to collapse and we should get out while we can, and another who’s from a fishing town and hoped to reverse the economic collapse there. There were lots of reasons. ---
**Author:** ![DemonTree](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/demontree/32/8646_2.png) [@DemonTree](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DemonTree)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2020, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1764 "2020-12-28T21:24:08Z")
> [@Kimstu](#): > > Absofuckinglutely. And your recommendation to Canadians? > [@Kimstu](#): > > Well, I haven’t seen any evidence that the UK would realistically have ended up “like California” in a much more strongly federalized EU. > > But AFAICT even that would have been an economically advantageous outcome compared to where you seem to be headed now. ISTM that being “like Canada” is a rather optimistic prognosis. Like California in being a big and influential part of a larger whole, or like Canada in being an independent nation that is strongly influenced by a much larger and more powerful neighbour. No other comparison intended. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2020, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1765 "2020-12-28T21:26:32Z")
Or, like Canada in having guaranteed access to a trade block of close to half a billion consumers? Not quite as big as the EU, but essential for a trading nation like Canada. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2020, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1766 "2020-12-28T22:06:13Z")
> [@DemonTree](#): > > And your recommendation to Canadians? Not relevant to this analogy, because they aren’t part of the US to start with? Note that I’m not trying to argue that every country in the Americas ought to become part of the US, nor that every country in Eurasia ought to become part of the EU. > [@DemonTree](#): > > Like California in being a big and influential part of a larger whole, or like Canada in being an independent nation that is strongly influenced by a much larger and more powerful neighbour. ISTM that the analogy is a little misleading because being a state in the USA is really very different from being a member nation of the EU. Despite Brexit-extremist rhetoric, the UK within the EU really did have vastly more independent sovereignty than California within the US. > [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > Or, like Canada in having guaranteed access to a trade block of close to half a billion consumers? Yup. Canada unilaterally withdrawing from the CUFTA-NAFTA-CUSMA free trade arrangement would be deleterious for both parties, but more so for Canada. ---
**Author:** ![DemonTree](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/demontree/32/8646_2.png) [@DemonTree](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DemonTree)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2020, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1767 "2020-12-28T22:31:30Z")
> [@Kimstu](#): > > ISTM that the analogy is a little misleading because being a state in the USA is really very different from being a member nation of the EU. Despite Brexit-extremist rhetoric, the UK within the EU really did have vastly more independent sovereignty than California within the US. Yes, I was talking about a possible future where ‘ever closer union’ leads to something similar to a United States of Europe. Which I already noted may never happen. Currently, EU states are not in either position, they have much more sovereignty than California, but have agreed to give up a lot more than Canada. The EU is _far_ more than a trade deal. > [@Kimstu](#): > > Not relevant to this analogy, because they aren’t part of the US to start with? Note that I’m not trying to argue that every country in the Americas ought to become part of the US, nor that every country in Eurasia ought to become part of the EU. It’s very relevant to whether being a member is better in an absolute sense, vs it being too much trouble to leave. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2020, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1768 "2020-12-29T00:06:24Z")
> [@DemonTree](#): > > It’s very relevant to whether being a member is better in an absolute sense, vs it being too much trouble to leave. But you can’t really make the comparison of those two options across two such very different situations as EU membership and USA statehood. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2020, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1769 "2020-12-29T00:46:18Z")
> He pointed out that had the EU moved even a little on restricting entry to the UK on the reasonable grounds of previous criminal history or the identification of possible terrorism associates Wrong. The EU didn’t have to concede this because the EU already allowed Member States to do it. > Leavers are prepared to accept the cost of their choice Wrong. They _deny_ that there is a cost. It’s all scaremongering, remember? If they’re facing the cost head-on, why are they in such denial? Even now? Come on. The right answer is, nobody ever likes to admit they’re conned. It’s ok. You’re even doing it. You’re actively rewriting history about how the referendum was conducted and what was said by both sides. Leavers have _never, ever_ even acknowledged there’d be a cost. Oh, sure, you point to individual Leavers who are saying that, but they’re few and far between. But look at opinion polls since 2017, which shows a majority consistently think Brexit is a mistake. That’s only going to grow as the damage is made manifest. So your claim that Leavers are ready for this is 1) false, 2) assuming that only the opinion of a subset of the population matters now and forever and 3) should be dropped, by you, now and forever. Just stop it. You seem to have zero idea of how cars in the EU are made. There’ll hardly be any British car industry at this rate. > If leaving the EU zone fully is actually the disaster that the doom mongers claim, sterling will fall, and it will fall plenty It has done. > it will be cheaper to buy goods from the UK becuase of the devaluation. Only if you think British goods spring up from British earth devoid of any outside work. British food is grown with EU (and other) fertilisers and equipment, for example. An absolutely vast portion of our imports come in via Amsterdam, and that’s not changing any time soon. This is literally the first time I’ve ever seen anyone try to put a silver lining on a collapse of a currency. > Lots and lots of disruption to be sure, but it really is not in the interests of the EU to watch UK currency to fall due to massive loss of UK markets. The EU can cope because it retains - and is actively expanding - its existing trade deals with other countries. Meanwhile the UK limps on with a pittance of what it formerly had. We’re already getting details of the deal’s finer points coming in: - Over 250 million customs declarations - The need to for parallel chemical registration and product safety testing - The need to register trademarks twice, in the UK and in the EU Which means tons of red tape for British business, and loss of competitiveness. And from JP Morgan: > The bad news for the UK, in our view, is that the EU appears to have secured a deal which allows it to retain nearly all of the advantages it derives from its trading relationship with the UK, while giving it the ability to use regulatory structures to cherry pick among sectors where the UK had previously enjoyed advantages in the trading relationship. This applies to the services sector in particular, but to parts of the goods sector to. Doesn’t seem to be much to celebrate, But yeah mate, you keep clutching at those straws. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2020, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1770 "2020-12-29T01:33:15Z")
> [@casdave](#): > > At its most extreme you could imagine sterling collapse - with maybe a 20% drop, now your EU goods will cost up to 40% more to bring into the UK…, I’m trying to follow the logic here: why will it be a good thing for British consumers to pay up to 40% more for consumer goods imported from the EU? Or for British manufacturers to pay up to 40% more for inputs (eg - parts) imported from the EU? And then, since the costs of EU inputs have gone up, the final market price of the British manufactured product will have to go up? Like I said earlier, I’m just not getting it. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2020, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1771 "2020-12-29T01:55:40Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > I’m trying to follow the logic here: why will it be a good thing for British consumers to pay up to 40% more for consumer goods imported from the EU? > > Or for British manufacturers to pay up to 40% more for inputs (eg - parts) imported from the EU? And then, since the costs of EU inputs have gone up, the final market price of the British manufactured product will have to go up? IAN casdave and cannot speak for them, but I think the crux of their argument was a projected silver lining about UK goods costing less for EU buyers: > [@casdave](#): > > What will also happen is that the cost of UK goods will also fall - it will be cheaper to buy goods from the UK becuase of the devaluation. > > At its most extreme you could imagine sterling collapse - with maybe a 20% drop, now your EU goods will cost up to 40% more to bring into the UK - and yet UK goods even with the EU 20% WTO rules will cost about the same in sterling. I don’t get how having your imported consumer goods and your imported manufacturing materials cost 40% more while the selling price of your manufactured goods remains about the same works out in your favor in the long run, but then IANA economist either. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2020, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1772 "2020-12-29T03:06:07Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > Wrong. The EU didn’t have to concede this because the EU already allowed Member States to do it. Can you elaborate on this point? Just curiosity on my part. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2020, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1773 "2020-12-29T03:33:13Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > Can you elaborate on this point? Just curiosity on my part. IAN Malden\_Capell and cannot speak for them etc., but based on their response to casdave’s remark, > [@casdave](#): > > […] had the EU moved even a little on restricting entry to the UK on the reasonable grounds of previous criminal history or the identification of possible terrorism associates […] this seems to relate to the [2017 “Brexit: UK-EU movement of people”](https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201617/ldselect/ldeucom/121/121.pdf?TB_iframe=true&width=921.6&height=921.6) report, specifically par. 44 in ch. 2: > [@](#): > > Although Mr Jones indicated that the Government’s objective would be “to ensure that we recover control over our borders”, his colleague Robert Goodwill MP, Minister of State at the Home Office, pointed out that “this perception that we do not control our borders … is not a correct perception.” He emphasised that the UK—which does not participate in the Schengen border-free area—does control its own borders, and operates border controls that involve checking everyone, including EU nationals, arriving from continental Europe: > > “We carry out 100% checks on all scheduled passengers arriving at the border to confirm identity, nationality and eligibility for entry into the UK, and carry out checks against police and security immigration watch lists to identify people of concern. We therefore can and do refuse EU nationals entry to the UK. Between 2010 and September 2016, our Border Force officers have refused entry to nearly 9,000 EEA nationals.” IOW, AFAICT, although the pre-Brexit UK was in the EU, it was not in the Schengen zone, and it could and did turn away travelers from elsewhere in the EU at border checks. So it appears to me that Malden\_Capell was right in saying that casdave was wrong in saying that the EU was not allowing the pre-Brexit UK adequate control over its own borders “on the reasonable grounds of previous criminal history or the identification of possible terrorism associates”. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2020, 10:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1774 "2020-12-29T10:03:22Z")
Thanks, Kimstu. Even within Schengen IIRC Member States can declare national interest reasons and block individual cases or shut down their borders in a crisis. We’ve already seen that with COVID. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2020, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1775 "2020-12-29T15:59:52Z")
So, after all the years of fuss about fishing rights… the British fishing industry will be WORSE off due to Brexit. > **['Betrayed': UK fishing industry says Brexit deal threatens long-term damage](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/28/betrayed-uk-fishing-industry-says-brexit-deal-threatens-long-term-damage)** > > Anger that EU boats can work six miles off coast and that end of ‘quota swapping’ could outweigh any gains > The UK’s fishing sector will face immediate hardship and long-lasting damage under the new European Union deal, industry leaders and boat owners have claimed. > **[Scotland faces cuts to cod and haddock fisheries under Brexit deal](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/29/scotland-faces-cuts-to-cod-and-haddock-fisheries-under-brexit-deal)** > > Scottish government analysis shows rises in fish quota in only five of 13 fishing areas around Scotland > Mike Park, the chief executive of the Scottish White Fish Producers Association, said his members were “deeply aggrieved” about the immediate future. It was far from clear whether fleets would benefit greatly once the transition period was over. > > “The issue of sovereignty and our future ability to negotiate additional shares after the five-and-a-half-year window would seem clouded by so much complexity that it is difficult at this time to see how the UK government can use its newly recovered sovereignty to improve the situation of my members,” he said. The fishing industry seems surprised for some reason… 🤨 ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2020, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1776 "2020-12-29T16:05:20Z")
> [@Kimstu](#): > > IOW, AFAICT, although the pre-Brexit UK was in the EU, it was not in the Schengen zone, and it could and did turn away travelers from elsewhere in the EU at border checks. > > So it appears to me that Malden\_Capell was right in saying that casdave was wrong in saying that the EU was not allowing the pre-Brexit UK adequate control over its own borders “on the reasonable grounds of previous criminal history or the identification of possible terrorism associates”. Thank you for this. That matches my own personal experience last time I was in Europe. When we were leaving the UK for France on the Chunnel, we had to go through passport control. When we flew from France to the Czech republic, no passport controls at all. When we flew from Prague back to London, there were passport controls again. ---
**Author:** ![CardboardBoxx](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardboardboxx/32/7079_2.png) [@CardboardBoxx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CardboardBoxx)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2020, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1777 "2020-12-29T16:18:54Z")
I think this is the 4th or 5th post I’ve seen from you that does this. The word is bloc, no k. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2020, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1778 "2020-12-30T00:08:48Z")
[Another Brexit regretter casdave will probably pretend doesn’t exist.](https://www.iwradio.co.uk/news/video/brexit-eu-nations-unanimously-approve-deal-as-britons-warned-over-travel-insurance-charges-and-exports/) > Peter Wood, director of UK Glass Eels which exports across Europe, told Sky News: "We all produce the documentation but unfortunately our customers have now got a raft of documentation to produce to allow the imports to go ahead. > > “So why buy from the UK when you might as well buy from another producer in France who can deliver to the door with no documentation, no problems?” > > Mr Wood voted to leave the EU, but said he regrets that decision. > > "I thought we were going to get a global market and this was going to be a new opportunity but it hasn’t worked out like this. > > “I wouldn’t have voted for Brexit if I knew we were going to lose our jobs,” he added. ---
**Author:** ![JacobSwan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a6a055/32.png) [@JacobSwan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JacobSwan)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2020, 9:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1779 "2020-12-30T09:15:27Z")
He didn’t just vote for Brexit, he appeared in videos for UKIP encouraging others. Are we still allowed schadenfreude now we’ve left the EU? It’s a shame for his staff, but he got what he voted and campaigned for. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2020, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1780 "2020-12-30T14:51:42Z")
Hmm. It appears that the drafting of final deal was a bit rushed and not proofread. Either that, or Boris has had the draft ready for a couple of decades and forgot to update it. > **[Brexit deal mentions Netscape browser and Mozilla Mail](https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-55475433)** > > Experts suggest officials saved time by copying and pasting text from old legislation. > [@](#): > > **References to decades-old computer software are included in the new Brexit agreement, including a description of Netscape Communicator and Mozilla Mail as being “modern” services.** > > Experts believe officials must have copied and pasted chunks of text from old legislation into the document. > > The references are on [page 921 of the trade deal](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948119/EU-UK_Trade_and_Cooperation_Agreement_24.12.2020.pdf), in a section on encryption technology. > > It also recommends using systems that are now vulnerable to cyber-attacks. > > The text cites “modern e-mail software packages including Outlook, Mozilla Mail as well as Netscape Communicator 4.x.” > > The latter two are now defunct - the last major release of [Netscape Communicator was in 1997](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/7163547.stm). > … > The document also recommends using 1024-bit RSA encryption and the [SHA-1 hashing algorithm](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-35062275), which are both outdated and vulnerable to cyber-attacks. > > “It’s clear that something is amiss in the drafting of this treaty, and we’d go so far as to venture the opinion that a tired civil servant simply cut-and-pasted from a late-1990s security document,” [news site Hackaday commented.](https://hackaday.com/2020/12/28/netscape-communicator-and-sha-1-written-into-brexit-agreement/) > > Several people have suggested the words were copied from [a 2008 EU law](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/eudn/2008/616/annex/chapter/1/division/5/division/5.4/adopted), which includes the same text. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2020, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1781 "2020-12-30T15:14:39Z")
Well seeing as Brexiters generally wanted to take their country back, I presumed it was to 1897, so 1997 is an improvement I guess ---
**Author:** ![Slow\_Moving\_Vehicle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slow_moving_vehicle/32/291_2.png) [@Slow\_Moving\_Vehicle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slow_Moving_Vehicle)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2020, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1782 "2020-12-30T21:45:49Z")
That explains why he posted it to his MySpace page. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799.md?page=88) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799.md?page=90)