# What will the UK do wrt Brexit?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799>\
**Category:** Great Debates\
**Created:** [February 18, 2019, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799 "2019-02-18T22:39:29Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 96

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**Author:** ![casdave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c6cbf5/32.png) [@casdave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/casdave)\
**Post date:** [January 13, 2021, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1903 "2021-01-13T19:27:05Z")

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I also think that the EU would also be far better off for having the means to prevent UK criminals from entry.

I’ve dealt with any number of offenders, mainly dealers who intended to move over to Holland and Germany in the hope of evading observation, hell I even know of one individual who took a Spanish language distance learning course - did the exams in prison and absconded when he was transferred to open prison conditions - have a guess where he went.

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**Author:** ![Reno\_Nevada\_Jr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecc23a/32.png) [@Reno\_Nevada\_Jr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Reno_Nevada_Jr)\
**Post date:** [January 13, 2021, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1904 "2021-01-13T21:09:44Z")

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> [@Dead\_Cat](#):
>
> To be clear, I wasn’t trying to say that the EU should continue to go by the ‘old’ rules for some period of time, or that they were being unreasonable in enforcing the actual rules, I just didn’t make that crucial last connection until now.

I don’t think that anyone has pointed out that there WAS a grace period, and it was 1 year long. The UK actually exited EU in January of _2020_. At that time there was a 1 year grace period to negotiate the terms of withdrawal, but the withdrawal had already happened. The fact that Her Majesty’s Government made a dog’s breakfast of the negotiations and preparations for the end of the grace period is on nobody other than Her Majesty’s Government. Given the performance over the past four years it is pretty clear to this outside observer that a grace period of a hundred years would not have been long enough to avoid chaos.

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**Author:** ![its\_the\_daddy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/bb73d2/32.png) [@its\_the\_daddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/its_the_daddy)\
**Post date:** [January 14, 2021, 8:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1905 "2021-01-14T08:19:36Z")

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> [@Reno\_Nevada\_Jr](#):
>
> there WAS a grace period, and it was 1 year long

11 months. But, yeah.

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**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\
**Post date:** [January 14, 2021, 9:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1906 "2021-01-14T09:11:00Z")

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> **[Fisheries minister did not read Brexit bill as she was busy at nativity](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/13/fisheries-minister-admits-not-reading-brexit-bill-as-she-was-at-nativity)**
>
> PM stands by Victoria Prentis over admission she was too ‘busy’ to read deal, as SNP calls for resignation

> The SNP’s Brexit spokesperson, Philippa Whitford, said: “Due to Brexit-induced bureaucracy, Scotland’s fishing communities are already experiencing severe disruption and cannot get their produce to their customers in the EU market on time.
> 
> “For the Tory government’s fisheries minister to then admit that she did not even bother to read the details of the damaging deal because she was too busy is unbelievable and makes her position untenable.”

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**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\
**Post date:** [January 14, 2021, 11:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1907 "2021-01-14T11:48:02Z")

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> [@filmstar-en](#):
>
> There have been proposals to create a new UK Bill of Rights to clearly state what the government can and cannot do to replace the treaty obligation that requires reference to the authority of the European Court of Human Rights on cases that conflict with treaty obligations.

That’s been around since Cameron first raised it 15 years ago. Then and now and all the years between, there’s little or no sign of even a back-of-an-envelope outline of what they think it might contain. Yes, it would be a significant consumer of parliamentary and legal time to pass it into law and practice, but it would be a more convincing suggestion if there were some evidence of thought having gone into it since 2005, beyond a slogan to keep the Express/Mail/Telegraph/Sun readers on-side.

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**Author:** ![Dead\_Cat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Dead\_Cat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Cat)\
**Post date:** [January 14, 2021, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1908 "2021-01-14T12:22:43Z")

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It’s not often I agree with any statement by an SNP politician, but this does seem inexcusable.

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**Author:** ![amanset](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/8dc957/32.png) [@amanset](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amanset)\
**Post date:** [January 14, 2021, 12:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1910 "2021-01-14T12:50:25Z")

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> [@Ludovic](#):
>
> _Brexiters_ made their bed. People who didn’t support it have every right to complain. I’m not saying that’s the case here, but there have been threads here in the past where someone who just wanted to vent about things that were happening to them that they didn’t want and couldn’t change got pooh-poohed with “of course everything won’t be just as easy, what did you expect?”

This, God this.

I live in Sweden. I’ve lived here long enough that I didn’t even get a vote in the referendum, never mind voting remain. Now any interaction I do with my home country has layers of red tape and costs. People are being charged customs fees (not VAT, customs fees) at a flat 75 SEK/package for things from Amazon now.

I used to stock up on home comforts every time I went back to the UK. Many of those things I am no longer allowed to bring with me. My only option now is to buy them online at heavily marked up prices, plus delivery costs and the inevitable customs fees.

And that’s not forgetting I had to change my actual citizenship status just to make sure I could remain living where I was. Because that shit was all left to the last minute as well.

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**Author:** ![Drsunflower1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/drsunflower1/32/12711_2.png) [@Drsunflower1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Drsunflower1)\
**Post date:** [January 14, 2021, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1911 "2021-01-14T12:55:37Z")

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> [@PatrickLondon](#):
>
> That’s been around since Cameron first raised it 15 years ago. Then and now and all the years between, there’s little or no sign of even a back-of-an-envelope outline of what they think it might contain. Yes, it would be a significant consumer of parliamentary and legal time to pass it into law and practice, but it would be a more convincing suggestion if there were some evidence of thought having gone into it since 2005, beyond a slogan to keep the Express/Mail/Telegraph/Sun readers on-side.

This. There seems to have been a collective denial up to the highest level of policymakers to even acknowledge the fact that Brexit has consequences. That, or willful ignorance combined with utter laziness.

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**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\
**Post date:** [January 14, 2021, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1912 "2021-01-14T13:04:36Z")

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In this particular case, Brexit is of course irrelevant, as noted above, but it is all of a par.

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**Author:** ![filmstar-en](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/50afbb/32.png) [@filmstar-en](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmstar-en)\
**Post date:** [January 14, 2021, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1913 "2021-01-14T13:41:05Z")

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Something to do with it being Christmas Eve and family commitments? Sounds as if much of the work was done by civil servants at the last minute and the high standards of political oversight that such an important document merited were simply not met. But, of course, they can’t say that. Criticising the timetable would be to criticise the boss.

Could it be that releasing such an important document at a time when the people who have to scrutinise it will inevitably be distracted was part of the plan?

Get Brexit done! This means give the Brexit faction what they want in terms of sovereignty positions in the document such that they don’t turn on Boris and call him out as a traitor to the cause.

If the implications are that some businesses will suffer by being exposed to a sudden high levels of import/export bureaucracy disrupting a carefully built up supply chain?

Well…they will get over it…in time. In any case the fishing industry were VERY keen on Brexit and surely they will understand that it is for their long term benefit. The phasing out of the EU fishing quota system, that the small operators hate so much, is a surely progress?

However, it is a brave politician who tries to explain that to angry Scottish fishermen that they cannot have their cake and eat it.

I think there are going to be many examples of this as the holes in the UK-EU deal begin to become clear.

The UK paid £10B a year to be in the EU and got a range of benefits for that. I always considered that to a bargain. Now the UK is out of the EU club, the benefits stop and the businesses that have built supply chains on top of frictionless trade with the EU now have to change their business model.

It is the smaller operators who are unprepared for this. They will make a lot of noise, but while the Brexit faction and sections of the media were very keen to champion their cause when it co-included with the Brexit cause. Now, their concerns will be quietly forgotten. They were useful idiots, pawns in a bigger game. The big operators that control the bulk of the UK fishing industry will be compensated. They have influence, these little companies selling lobsters to the French? Not so much.

It will be interesting to see how the government is prepared to defend its position as these Brexit issues start emerging.

The Christmas tree defence presumably claiming family commitments are more important than an important treaty and matter of state? Weak!

The government will surround itself with a sacrificial picket of junior minister fall guys. This seems to be one if them. An open goal for the SNP. I expect Starmer and Labour will be looking for similar holes and scalps. But the government can always announce some compensation scheme to get themselves off the hook.

All this is being hidden behind the big COVID emergency. I seem to remember a leaked memo from a government advisor during another big emergency some years ago. ‘This is a good time to hide bad news’.

With everyone distracted by the COVID pandemic and the Christmas break, the government got this flaky deal through without much scrutiny. The fallout, too may be drowned out by COVID stories for many weeks to come.

I guess it will start becoming an issue once the UK turns its attention to the economic crisis that is looming.

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**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\
**Post date:** [January 14, 2021, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1914 "2021-01-14T14:06:09Z")

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This research paper says that before the referendum 93% of Scottish fishermen said they would vote for Brexit.

[A survey of Scottish fishermen ahead of Brexit: political, social and constitutional attitudes](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/325188654_A_survey_of_Scottish_fishermen_ahead_of_Brexit_political_social_and_constitutional_attitudes)

> An overwhelming majority stated that they intended to vote to leave the EU. Further examination found that their reasoning was very much instrumental in that they believe that leaving the EU and the CFP will benefit their industry.
> 
> There was very little evidence that issues driving the vote choice of many leave voters in the UK, such immigration, were driving their decision to vote leave. Fishermen, on the whole, appear to have made a carefully calculated and rational judgement to vote leave based on their negative perceptions of the CFP and its impact on their industry.

It looks like their “carefully calculated and rational judgement” was dead wrong. They can’t say they didn’t bring this on themselves.

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**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\
**Post date:** [January 14, 2021, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1915 "2021-01-14T18:08:29Z")

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> [@filmstar-en](#):
>
> The big operators that control the bulk of the UK fishing industry will be compensated. They have influence

Not enough to keep the Kirkella working. You know, the single trawler that supplies 12 per cent of all fish sold in British chippies. It’s not just small operators feeling the pinch.

> [@filmstar-en](#):
>
> They were useful idiots, pawns in a bigger game.

_Prawns_, surely? 🙂

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**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\
**Post date:** [January 14, 2021, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1916 "2021-01-14T18:12:20Z")

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To be fair, their complaint isn’t that Brexit happened in the first place, it’s that Westminster has fucked up the follow-through. Which, yeah, I know, didn’t take a crystal ball…

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**Author:** ![cytop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f17d59/32.png) [@cytop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cytop)\
**Post date:** [January 14, 2021, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1917 "2021-01-14T18:34:15Z")

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> [@filmstar-en](#):
>
> I seem to remember a leaked memo from a government advisor during another big emergency some years ago. ‘This is a good time to hide bad news’

Jo Moore, an aide to the (then) Transport Secretary Stephen Byers [Labour] suggested the September 11 attacks were a good day to bury bad news… Can’t remember the news they were hoping to bury but it takes a special kind of cynic to make that suggestion.

ETA: Surprised myself remembering her name but interest was piqued so went to check.

She wasn’t trying to bury anything in specific but circulated an email making the ‘Good day to bury…’ suggestion. It took here until sometime in 2002 to actually resign.

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**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\
**Post date:** [January 14, 2021, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1918 "2021-01-14T18:38:12Z")

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There’s a longstanding tradition of releasing bad or embarrassing political news on a Friday afternoon or a Friday evening. A bank holiday weekend is especially useful for this.

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**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\
**Post date:** [January 14, 2021, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1919 "2021-01-14T18:42:04Z")

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> [@MrDibble](#):
>
> To be fair, their complaint isn’t that Brexit happened in the first place, it’s that Westminster has fucked up the follow-through.

The problem is not so much that they fucked up, but that no solution _exists_ that will allow them to have their cake and eat it.

If they set up a barrier that excludes the EU from fishing in British waters, that same barrier will stop them exporting fish frictionlessly to the EU.

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**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\
**Post date:** [January 14, 2021, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1920 "2021-01-14T18:43:37Z")

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Yes, it’s that complicated principle of international trade that has confounded so many: “You’re in, or you’re out.”

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**Author:** ![filmstar-en](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/50afbb/32.png) [@filmstar-en](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmstar-en)\
**Post date:** [January 14, 2021, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1921 "2021-01-14T18:44:12Z")

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The Kirkella spends most of its time in the Barents Sea controlled by Norway. The UK has access to this fishing ground by a quota agreement between Norway and the EU.

No EU, no quota. Unless the UK negotiates a deal directly with Norway.

> A government spokesperson said: “As an independent coastal state the UK has put in place new arrangements to further influence the management of near and distant fish stocks, to best serve the interests of the British fishing industry.
> 
> “Negotiations for fishing opportunities in 2021 will be concluded as soon as possible.”

I guess this is on the Brexit teams ‘To Do’ list.

> **[Farewell fish and chips? UK super trawler unable to fish since Brexit](https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/farewell-fish-and-chips-uk-super-trawler-unable-to-fish-since-brexit-216181/)**
>
> The London Economic - Karl Turner, MP for Hull East, said the delay was the “last nail in the coffin” for the industry - News

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**Author:** ![Slow\_Moving\_Vehicle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slow_moving_vehicle/32/291_2.png) [@Slow\_Moving\_Vehicle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slow_Moving_Vehicle)\
**Post date:** [January 14, 2021, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1922 "2021-01-14T19:11:51Z")

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> [@Dead\_Cat](#):
>
> I accept all that, but bringing a packed lunch for your own consumption is not ‘importing goods’ - that’s why I was initially suggesting that rules about ‘trade’ should not apply here. I think LSLGuy nailed it in that this is more about preventing transmission of undesirable organisms from one landmass to another - and the oddity is more that this was allowed before, rather than this is not allowed now For example, I assume that Australia and New Zealand have extensive trade agreements, but you are still not allowed to bring a ham sandwich from one to the other with impunity (though again I am open to correction from someone with actual knowledge on this vital matter 🙂).

Just to add a bit of personal anecdote, customs officers in New Zealand inspected the bottoms of my boots for illicit _dirt,_ when I flew in from the U.S. So did the Aussies. Their strictness over biocontrols is about protecting unique island habitats; they weren’t attempting to bolster up their dirt industries.

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**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\
**Post date:** [January 14, 2021, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1923 "2021-01-14T23:28:45Z")

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> [@Northern\_Piper](#):
>
> Yes, it’s that complicated principle of international trade that has confounded so many: “You’re in, or you’re out.”

Another couple complicated principles that amateurs don’t really seem to understand:

In a negotiation with a more-or-less equal, you don’t get 100% of what you want while giving the counterparty zero % of what they want. Darth Vader can pull that shit (at least in the first reel) but even he gets hammered before the credits roll.

How bad you want it is not related in any way to your actual bargaining power to get it.

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