# What will the UK do wrt Brexit?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799>\
**Category:** Great Debates\
**Created:** [February 18, 2019, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799 "2019-02-18T22:39:29Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 99

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**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\
**Post date:** [January 31, 2021, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1964 "2021-01-31T13:41:53Z")

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> [@The\_Librarian](#):
>
> To who did “they” impose this?  
> Who is “they”?

1: To both the Republic and Northern Ireland - the whole point of the much argued-over parts of the withdrawal agreement and future trade agreement in relation to Ireland was that there would not be restrictions on trade between the two, and the decision on moving the vaccines across the EU’s external border imposed exactly such a restriction - without even consulting or warning those most directly affected, whether in the EU or not.  
2: The Commission, acting with delegated powers (specifically, one assumes, Ursula von der Leyen as President and Stella Kyriakides as Commissioner for health policy issues, in view of the line she took when the problems with the AZ Belgian factory first emerged).

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**Author:** ![WalterBishop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/aeb1de/32.png) [@WalterBishop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WalterBishop)\
**Post date:** [January 31, 2021, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1965 "2021-01-31T14:25:59Z")

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> [@Novelty\_Bobble](#):
>
> And note, they didn’t just _threaten_ it, they _imposed_ a de-facto hard border at the drop of a hat and after apparently zero consultation with either the UK or Ireland.

Really? Wow. I stand corrected. That’s pretty appalling behavior on their part. Last I heard they’d backed down, at least for now. Is that still the case?

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**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\
**Post date:** [January 31, 2021, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1966 "2021-01-31T15:14:58Z")

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> [@The\_Librarian](#):
>
> I find the idea that any problem on the NI border is somehow not of Boris’ making ridiculous.

Then I suggest you read upon what happened and come to a conclusion accordingly.

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**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\
**Post date:** [January 31, 2021, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1967 "2021-01-31T15:40:17Z")

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> [@WalterBishop](#):
>
> Really? Wow. I stand corrected. That’s pretty appalling behavior on their part. Last I heard they’d backed down, at least for now. Is that still the case?

no, they admited their error and reversed their decision very quickly. Full marks to them for doing that. The problem is that their willingness to take that nuclear option so quickly and without at least discussing it with those most closely involved has raised questions over their commitment to article 16.

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**Author:** ![The\_Librarian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_librarian/32/402_2.png) [@The\_Librarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Librarian)\
**Post date:** [January 31, 2021, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1968 "2021-01-31T17:28:55Z")

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Read quite a lot. Didn’t change my POV. The first time the something that matters to the tabloids goes wrong the fallout from Brexit is the EU’s fault? Fuck that.

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**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\
**Post date:** [January 31, 2021, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1969 "2021-01-31T18:00:28Z")

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OK, but the overwhelming response from pretty much everyone else, apart fromyou it seems, is that it was a big error on the part of the EU.

[Pro/anti Brexit press doesn’t seem to matter.](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/31/european-press-reacts-eu-covid-vaccine-row) They all think the EU monumentally fucked up.

Being pro-EU shouldn’t blind you to the mistakes they will inevitably make.

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**Author:** ![The\_Librarian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_librarian/32/402_2.png) [@The\_Librarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Librarian)\
**Post date:** [February 1, 2021, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1970 "2021-02-01T03:45:55Z")

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Nevermind

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**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\
**Post date:** [February 1, 2021, 9:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1971 "2021-02-01T09:27:38Z")

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The Leave view of the EU is that it was run by unaccountable power-crazed bureaucrats who, when it came to the crunch, would run roughshod over any and all members to achieve their goals.

In their handling of the fallout from their slow start to vaccine commissioning, the European Commission have confirmed all of those stereotypes. It’s been shocking. The one good thing, as Novelty Bobble says, is that in the end saner council prevailed and they rowed back. But their willingness only a month after the new rules kicked in to harden the NI border is shocking and will undermine stability by raising the uncertainty that everyone worked so hard to avoid.

I still think Brexit was/is a bad idea, but there’s no way to look at this and think that it wasn’t a fuck-up.

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**Author:** ![The\_Librarian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_librarian/32/402_2.png) [@The\_Librarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Librarian)\
**Post date:** [February 1, 2021, 10:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1972 "2021-02-01T10:56:57Z")

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I fully agree this was a fuck up. On re-read I think I owe [Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble) an apology for misreading their post.  
While I fully embrace the European ideal I think the execution leaves much to be desired. (the BS migration to Strassbourg, the opaque rules, the idiotic attendance premium, the failure to make a coherent immigration policy)  
However I am happy about the EU’s capability to admit being wrong.

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**Author:** ![its\_the\_daddy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/bb73d2/32.png) [@its\_the\_daddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/its_the_daddy)\
**Post date:** [February 5, 2021, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1973 "2021-02-05T15:36:08Z")

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> [@The\_Librarian](#):
>
> However I am happy about the EU’s capability to admit being wrong.

One day we’ll have a UK Government that can do this!

[Keir Starmer sorry for ‘making a mistake’ during PMQs | PMQs | The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/03/boris-johnson-visit-vaccine-plant-despite-covid-outbreak)

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**Author:** ![Chad\_Sudan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chad_sudan/32/4509_2.png) [@Chad\_Sudan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chad_Sudan)\
**Post date:** [February 7, 2021, 10:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1974 "2021-02-07T10:27:18Z")

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According to today’s _Guardian_, UK exports to the EU fell 68% in January 2021 compared to January 2020. The pandemic is partly responsible, but the main cause was Brexit.

Sixty-eight percent!

And full Brexit is yet to come! Currently there’s a grace period on full import checks of EU products to the UK. Starting July 1, all the restrictions must be applied.

> **[Fury at Gove as exports to EU slashed by 68% since Brexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/feb/06/fury-at-gove-as-exports-to-eu-slashed-by-68-since-brexit)**
>
> Hauliers say Cabinet Office minister ignored their warnings, amid fears that worse is to come with introduction of import checks in July

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**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\
**Post date:** [February 7, 2021, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1975 "2021-02-07T13:46:51Z")

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Not specifically to do with Brexit but …

As we rapidly approach the 1st anniversary of COVID having serious impacts around the world it will be interesting to see how businesses and governments react to the increasing dis-utility of year-over-year comparisons, which are a staple of econometrics.

Should e.g. April 2021 be compared to April 2020 or April 2019 or ??? to illustrate out how deep a hole we’re in?

Back to Brexit: Teasing apart Brexit effects vs COVID effects will always be difficult. Which is another way of saying folks with an agenda can cherry pick which measure best supports their POV.

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**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\
**Post date:** [February 12, 2021, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1976 "2021-02-12T20:25:41Z")

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[Brexit update from the NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/12/world/europe/brexit-britain-trade.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage) (probably paywalled) entitled " Brexit Was Sold as Taking Back U.K. Control. Post-Brexit Is Out of Control." Some takeaways:

> During the 2016 Brexit referendum campaign, those in favor of leaving Europe promised businesses liberation from the suffocating regulations and time-sucking bureaucracy that supposedly prevailed across the Channel.

> Businesses across Britain are now contending with paralyzing confusion and unfamiliar bureaucratic hurdles. Paperwork snafus, customs horrors and other expensive disruptions are intensifying the strains on an [economy that was already reeling from the pandemic](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/25/business/us-economy-coronavirus/britains-economy-is-in-the-midst-of-its-deepest-recession-in-three-centuries).

> The European Union has traditionally purchased nearly half of Britain’s exports. The volume of exports crossing the channel in January collapsed by more than two-thirds compared to the previous year. Some producers of fish, shellfish, meat and dairy have been cut off from markets in Europe, suffering a catastrophic plunge in sales.

> Britain’s lucrative finance industry has seen trading in the stocks of European companies shift abruptly to the continent, as [Amsterdam](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/11/business/brexit-economy-europe-britain-netherlands.html) has displaced London as the primary market for such shares.

> Manufacturers are contending with grave disruptions to their supplies of finished products, components and basic materials.
> 
> And the changes imposed by Brexit are only beginning, as London and Brussels continue to renegotiate the rules governing future commercial dealings across the channel.

There’s much more and the entire article is well worth reading if you’ve got a Times subscription or any free articles available, as it includes interviews and examples from multiple different industries and small businesses. It is abundently clear that Brexit so far has been a complete disaster and it doesn’t look to get better any time soon. But I bet Boris and Nigel are already richer.

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**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\
**Post date:** [February 12, 2021, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1977 "2021-02-12T21:56:53Z")

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I’d use the FT article but the FT is usually paywalled:

> **[Amsterdam overtakes London as Europe's top share trading centre](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/feb/11/amsterdam-overtakes-london-as-europes-top-share-trading-centre)**
>
> English capital pushed from perch, with average daily trading halving from €17.5bn to €8.6bn last month

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**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\
**Post date:** [February 12, 2021, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1978 "2021-02-12T22:24:59Z")

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Slight hijack: I wonder if this is a propitious time to try to re-launch my proposed “License-With-An-S Fee Movement” for US fans of BBC program(me)s.

The deal is, we pay them the same annual fee that UK viewers pay, and in return we get to see (via streaming iPlayer) everything that UK viewers can see. None of this “BBC America” limited-options bullshit.

Maybe if enough Americans start demanding this, the UK will figure out a way to make it possible. Frankly, it sounds like they could use the money.

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**Author:** ![filmstar-en](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/50afbb/32.png) [@filmstar-en](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmstar-en)\
**Post date:** [March 2, 2021, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1979 "2021-03-02T16:43:51Z")

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The nearest thing is a streaming service with a collection of the British TV.

> **[BritBox](https://watch.britbox.co.uk)**

All the streaming services have to deal with copyright and licensing issues and what they let you see varies around the world. A Netflix subscription in the UK is different from Netflix in the USA.

There are ways to get around these restrictions, but it is never straightforward.

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**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\
**Post date:** [March 2, 2021, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1980 "2021-03-02T16:48:38Z")

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> [@Kimstu](#):
>
> The deal is, we pay them the same annual fee that UK viewers pay, and in return we get to see (via streaming iPlayer) everything that UK viewers can see. None of this “BBC America” limited-options bullshit.

BBC America shows much less British programming than it used to. Now it’s wall-to-wall nature specials, like Blue Planet, Star Trek series and even the US version of Law & Order.

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**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\
**Post date:** [March 3, 2021, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1981 "2021-03-03T00:24:19Z")

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> [@filmstar-en](#):
>
> All the streaming services have to deal with copyright and licensing issues and what they let you see varies around the world. A Netflix subscription in the UK is different from Netflix in the USA.

I know, which is why I said that maybe the UK could “figure out a way to make it possible” to give Americans the full BBC streaming content, rather than assuming that all they have to do is sign the contract and take our money.

Yes, I do have and like BritBox, but it has its own limitations.

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**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\
**Post date:** [March 3, 2021, 7:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1982 "2021-03-03T07:32:37Z")

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> [@Kimstu](#):
>
> I said that maybe the UK could “figure out a way to make it possible” to give Americans the full BBC streaming content, rather than assuming that all they have to do is sign the contract and take our money.

Presumably they have, and Britbox is the answer. If there were a blanket access to all BBC programmes (a high proportion of which are commissioned from independent producers, who might fancy their chances of selling the programme to the US market independently), there’d be a risk of either having to hoick up the licence fee for all of us or losing programmes to the commercial broadcasters.

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**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\
**Post date:** [March 23, 2021, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-the-uk-do-wrt-brexit/829799/1983 "2021-03-23T12:33:32Z")

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Going great:

> **[Data shows collapse of UK food and drink exports post-Brexit](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/22/data-shows-collapse-of-uk-food-and-drink-exports-post-brexit)**
>
> HMRC figures reveal huge year-on-year falls in trade, with whisky, cheese and chocolate worst hit

While COVID has been a factor, it’s not remotely the biggest one:

Salmon exports to EU down 98%.  
Beef down 92%  
Cheese down 85%  
Pork down 86%  
All food and drink in total down 75.5%

There will eventually be some bounceback once tourism resumes but I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for a return to where things were, which won’t be for a long time if ever.

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