# What would an American "civil war" look like? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 3, 2018, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213 "2018-07-03T03:28:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Brayne\_Ded](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Brayne\_Ded](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Brayne_Ded)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/101 "2018-07-05T13:15:56Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > This isn’t 1776 or 1860. People who own handguns and rifles aren’t going to matter. What would matter in a modern civil war is which way the military goes. Whichever side controls the tanks and the artillery and the planes wins the civil war. Anyone who tries to resist with their personal weapons is a casualty. I disagree. Think guerilla warfare, urban warfare, gang warfare, a spreading breaking down of law and order. It won’t be the Posse Comitatas running around the undergrowth in camo, they will be picked off quickly. My guess is that it will be a breakdown of law and order with various groups attacking each other, but necessarily as pitched battles that a conventional military can tackle with overwhelming force. It will be a repeat of Iraq and Afghanistan, or Somalia. The right-wing gun nuts will be on top at first, until they get outgunned and outnumbered The US military has never been politicised, and I don’t think that will change. The military everywhere tends to be conservative by outlook anyway. It would prefer to do what it knows and does best - killing people - and let the talking heads do the talking. Outside intervention? Apart from supplying weaponry, I think not. Neither Canada nor Mexico would want to get involved, apart from humanitarian aid, assistance to the police, and taking in refugees. It will be an American matter and will be settled in the USA, simply because of the numbers involved. Would the states devolve, either before or after such a conflict? I would hazard a guess that some might break away, but would finally return after the whole setup had been renegotiated and Washington got its wings clipped. The return to a USA possibly as a means to restoring law and order nationally. Big countries can splinter. China has had periods of multiple kingdoms, and the warlord era in the last century. One scenario is for Russia to split up into a number of pieces, some quite small. Mexico is supposed to be at risk of fragmenting. Well, maybe. But we can say for certain that massive civil unrest, whether o not it becomes a full civil war, will be murderous and debilitating. ---
**Author:** ![Brayne\_Ded](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Brayne\_Ded](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Brayne_Ded)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/102 "2018-07-05T13:18:30Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Can anyone name any conflict in history between an urban and a rural side where the rural side was the one that won? Nepal, a decade ago. And what about Afghanistan? ---
**Author:** ![Brayne\_Ded](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Brayne\_Ded](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Brayne_Ded)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 1:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/103 "2018-07-05T13:30:58Z")
> [@Scumpup](#): > > Right…look how the Bolsheviks, VC, et al failed by not having the rich people on their side. The French Revolution failed for the same reason, right? False analogy. The Russian revolution was essentially a “stop the war” movement and an attempt by the middle class to shove out the incompetent aristocrats. Money was not an issue. The French revolution was essentially a revolt by the middle class, who did possess more money than the aristocrats. Further back, the English Civil War went the way it did because Parliament had more people, more money and far more manufacturing capacity at its disposal. (Ditto for the American Civil War, with some name changes.) Back to the post. If the reds get isolated as described, they will be like the Confederates; damn good soldiers but short of all resources before long, and devoid of any political support from outside. In the end they will just get ground down. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/104 "2018-07-05T14:10:45Z")
> [@nightshadea](#): > > wed end up like Somalia unless Canada or mexico sent in troops …… hundreds of petty gangs supporting mafia type of warlords……… Canada and Mexico don’t have nearly enough troops to send to matter. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/105 "2018-07-05T14:14:48Z")
> [@Pantastic](#): > > Why are people even talking about a ‘red state’ civil war in this thread? Republicans have most of the state legislatures, national congress, and the presidency in their pocket. I mean, why would you start a civil war for control of the country when you HAVE control of the country in the first place? It’s just bizarre. As others have pointed out, the most likely scenario would be Reds losing control due to an election result which their leaders immediately declare illegal or invalid. They revolt rather than accept a duly elected Democratic president or House. I hope this is nothing more than paranoid fantasy, but considering how in thrall the right is to the alternate reality of Fox News, I can see it happening. ---
**Author:** ![Silver\_lining](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aca169/32.png) [@Silver\_lining](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_lining)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/106 "2018-07-05T14:22:19Z")
The odds of a second American civil war are even with me dating Christie Brinkley in the 1990’s. You might see a very small fringe group target politicians, and it this happensboth sides need to immediately repudiate the fringe group, with an understanding that any political causality is replaced by the party that lost a representative. I’d actually like to see that become a law because it would not shock me if this happened and with politics being like it is, partly thanks to the media who fan the flames, a retaliation would be ugly. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/107 "2018-07-05T14:32:02Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > BTW, two things: > > 1. I don’t think a civil war is going to erupt anytime soon either. > > 2. If it did, the red side, which includes most of the gun owners, military, and law enforcement, would absolutely kick the ever-loving shit out of the blue side, and Mexico, and Canada, and anyone else if needs be. 1. You’re assuming because conservatives perpetually verbally fellate the military and law enforcement that they would automatically take your side. I think that’s a mistake, I don’t think the political breakdown of either group is radically different from that of the general public. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/108 "2018-07-05T14:38:48Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > 1. You’re assuming because conservatives perpetually verbally fellate the military and law enforcement that they would automatically take your side. I think that’s a mistake, I don’t think the political breakdown of either group is radically different from that of the general public. I’d encourage you to review some of the cites I’ve offered in this thread that refute your claim. ---
**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/109 "2018-07-05T14:48:43Z")
The next civil war won’t be fought between the political left and right. The actual danger we face is class warfare, the haves versus the have-nots. There will be a tipping point as AI, robotics and automation make more and more humans surplus to requirements. 30 percent unemployment? 50 percent? It’s all completely avoidable, of course. But with “leaders” like Trump and a Congress comprised of corrupt, career politicians? Nah, it’s gonna happen. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/110 "2018-07-05T15:12:57Z")
> [@Brayne\_Ded](#): > > Neither Canada nor Mexico would want to get involved … How’s this for a fun-to-imagine scenario: the New England states secede and apply for admission to Canada? ---
**Author:** ![Silver\_lining](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aca169/32.png) [@Silver\_lining](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_lining)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/111 "2018-07-05T16:23:13Z")
> [@BlankSlate](#): > > The next civil war won’t be fought between the political left and right. The actual danger we face is class warfare, the haves versus the have-nots. There will be a tipping point as AI, robotics and automation make more and more humans surplus to requirements. 30 percent unemployment? 50 percent? It’s all completely avoidable, of course. But with “leaders” like Trump and a Congress comprised of corrupt, career politicians? Nah, it’s gonna happen. A much better view of what could start a civil war. 30-50% out of work would create desperation. Luckily un-employment is at a historic low right now and the 2nd amendment is a hedge against a governmental take over. ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/112 "2018-07-05T17:09:06Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > A much better view of what could start a civil war. 30-50% out of work would create desperation. > > Luckily un-employment is at a historic low right now and the 2nd amendment is a hedge against a governmental take over. A governmental take over of what? ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/113 "2018-07-05T17:25:22Z")
> [@Slash1972](#): > > A governmental take over of what? Of, you know, the country. Taking it away from… hmmm. Okay, I’m stumped. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/114 "2018-07-05T17:37:09Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > How’s this for a fun-to-imagine scenario: the New England states secede and apply for admission to Canada? Oh my God, Yes. Tabarnak de cuuuulisssse de criss de osti de yes. ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/115 "2018-07-05T17:42:05Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > Of, you know, the country. Taking it away from… hmmm. > > Okay, I’m stumped. The unemployment industry. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/116 "2018-07-05T17:42:07Z")
> [@Lamoral](#): > > Oh my God, Yes. Tabarnak de cuuuulisssse de criss de osti de yes. Google Translate can’t handle that one. Little help for us future Canadians? ---
**Author:** ![Pantastic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3bc359/32.png) [@Pantastic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pantastic)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/117 "2018-07-05T17:55:35Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > I hope this is nothing more than paranoid fantasy, but considering how in thrall the right is to the alternate reality of Fox News, I can see it happening. So you think that the big money backers of the Republican party want a civil war and would support all of the right-wing media in declaring one? Isn’t that going to trash their vast fortunes when cities start blowing up and people leave their jobs to fight in the street? > [@Silver\_lining](#): > > A much better view of what could start a civil war. 30-50% out of work would create desperation. As I said before, why would the people suffering from high unemployment start a civil war at extreme risk and cost to themselves instead of just voting for someone willing to do something about their situation? It’s one thing to not want to vote for a third party if you think it might let the ‘other guy’ win, it’s another to choose to take to the streets to fight the most powerful army on the planet instead of just voting. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/118 "2018-07-05T17:56:57Z")
For me, my beginning point of speculation would be… how and why would a hypothetical Civil War 2 not be aligned exactly like the first one? There would of course be differences. However, today’s political divisions are pretty closely aligned the way they were in 1860. As one example, there is a startling alignment of the Alabama counties who voted for Roy Moore compared to the counties with the largest enslaved population in 1860. It’s also been mentioned that law enforcement and military are proportionally much more represented among conservative occupations. That’s fairly safe to say, but the converse of that doesn’t automatically follow - that is to say, conservatives may be a majority of some military branches, but not an overwhelming majority of every organ of every branch. Let’s not forget that the military since WW2 has served as a workfare program enabling economic mobility for a number of black and latino youths as well. Judging from my own Army experience, it seemed like the officer corps was overwhelmingly conservative. But the fringe white-nationalist conservatism orbiting around Trump was entirely limited to white officers, and to a minority of these. And as you’d expect, the enlisted corps was much more diverse. Again just from my memory these were about 1/3rd white and not extremists. So the point I’m working towards is that in a Civil War 2 scenario, military fragmentation would be an early and serious development. I could see huge parts of the US Army and Marines simply disintegrating as people mutinied or deserted. Like Robert E. Lee, many Red-State white conservatives would return home and join their state militia (National Guard). I also expect that many former-military and former-police conservatives would create paramilitary formations, just as Gen. Nathan Bedford Forrest formed the paramilitary terrorist group known as the KKK. This time, I would see the wild-card as being the red-state Midwest and Western states. People would rightly question whether the principles of the American Experiment are worth buying back the South with blood, the South that has caused all this trouble from the beginning, the South that is a net recipient of federal aid. I think a lot of people would express that it’s a good idea, but just not worth it. I expect that the US military, with air mobility that didn’t exist in the Civil War, would heavily defend military installations in the South, if they didn’t fall to mutiny outright. There would be some protracted “Berlin Airlift” situations. So between north and south, I’d expect a hostile armistice. The real “war” would be a heartbreaking insurgency in the south, broken down largely along racial lines. Here we’d answer the question of who the Air Force would bomb - Southern military formations besieging and attacking non-white enclaves. I can’t guess how the air supremacy war would go down. It would depend which way the Air Force white evangelicals break. Much depends on how white evangelicals align, both in reality and the hypothetical. The international aspects would be difficult and fun to imagine, but I don’t have time for that today. Enjoy the fruits of my lunch break. ---
**Author:** ![Ulfreida](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ulfreida/32/8014_2.png) [@Ulfreida](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulfreida)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/119 "2018-07-05T18:07:51Z")
> [@Lamoral](#): > > Oh brother. Look, if you’re really worried, I can help hook you up with property in Cape Breton, Nova Scotia. It’s fucking beautiful. It’s like Wes Anderson’s _Moonrise Kingdom_. Best fly fishing on earth. Friendly people, amazing scenery, only a few hours from metro Halifax…you interested? I’ll help hook you up. I’m a real estate broker and while my license isn’t valid in Canada, I bet I’d at least get a referral fee. Interested? [Here](https://postimg.cc/image/q2yemndk7/) is a picture I took of the Margaree River two years ago. How could you say no to that? And the best part is, no more Donald Trump!! I love the Margaree River. No more beautiful place on earth. Can’t eat beauty though, sadly. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/120 "2018-07-05T18:08:56Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > And a civil war in America, with college-educated chemists and mechanical engineers and the like on both sides would truly be something horrific to behold. It would have the potential to be a hell like which the world has never seen before. Meh… the threat of college-educated chemists and mechanical engineers depends on trade and economy. As long as I can get Amazon deliveries, theoretically, potentially, I’m a very dangerous man. But if the economy is diverted to beans and bullets, there’s not much I can do. And I can’t imagine even a state-supported Confederacy or Union would invent anything much worse than the US invented in any given month in the 1960’s. Who does China like in this scenario? So much depends on this. But even then, does the Navy break north or south? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213.md?page=7)