# What would an American "civil war" look like? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 3, 2018, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213 "2018-07-03T03:28:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2018, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/141 "2018-07-06T18:38:03Z")
> [@Pantastic](#): > > So your scenario requires that the unemployment rate is going to jump from ‘historically low’ to ‘much higher than during the Great Depression’ within the span of a single election? Nope. > [@](#): > > And that the US economy goes through a massive restructuring such that cheap, calorie dense food is not readily available, plus that all food aid programs and private charities distributing food grind to a standstill within the span of that single election? And nope. > [@](#): > > And also requires the US government to completely abandon the rule of law and alter itself in a fundamental manner. Your putting of an “and” on that would imply that I said that all of these things would be concurrent, which is not something that I said. > [@](#): > > That’s the point I’m making, people in America today are not actually powerless, and do have a lot to lose. Your scenario requires a massive and rapid change in the economy and government beyond any precedent in US history before the civil war comes about. It’s certainly not something that comes from current trends. Not that rapid a change necessary. A fairly large change, and the precedent it would be changing to would be to what we had after the civil war, not before. The current trends that is desired among the people currently in power is to peel back all of those protections that you claim are inviolate. I think that there is enough resistance to these trends at the moment, but if current political trends continue, and the regressive right continues to gain power, then the ordinary man will find himself with less and less to lose. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2018, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/142 "2018-07-06T19:20:33Z")
> [@Pantastic](#): > > If you’re going to call that a ‘low level civil war’, then we’ve never actually not been in one since the founding of the country. Generally ‘sporadic politically motivated violence and occasional demonstrations’ is not what people mean by a civil war; by that standard most of Europe is involved in a much more nasty civil war than the US is, with no signs of abatement. It’s not sporadic it’s pretty constant. I would include mass shootings as element of it; they are in essence lone wolf operations inspired by the NRA similar to the lone wolf attacks inspired by ISIS. The fact is we do not have shared values, or a shared culture and we now have a president who is exploiting those divisions while intentionally breaking our political norms and pandering to white nationalism. It’s happening and it’s going to get worse. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2018, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/143 "2018-07-06T19:56:38Z")
> [@madmonk28](#): > > It’s not sporadic it’s pretty constant. I would include mass shootings as element of it; they are in essence lone wolf operations inspired by the NRA similar to the lone wolf attacks inspired by ISIS. … I’ve heard people equate the NRA with terrorists before (and I thought it was a stupid argument then), but this is the first time I’ve heard anyone claim they actually “inspired” mass shootings. Which particular shootings do you think were “inspired by the NRA”? ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2018, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/144 "2018-07-06T20:16:46Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Can anyone name any conflict in history between an urban and a rural side where the rural side was the one that won? > [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > Off the very top of my head—no googling or coffee yet—the Chinese Communist Revolution of 1949 and the Iranian Revolution of 1979. I’m willing to admit I may be off base, with those two, but I don’t think I am. > > I’m sure there are others… Cambodia did fall to the Khmer Rouge in the 1970’s as well, even if foreign invaders did push them out after a few years. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2018, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/145 "2018-07-06T23:59:27Z")
> [@Pantastic](#): > > So you think that the big money backers of the Republican party want a civil war and would support all of the right-wing media in declaring one? Isn’t that going to trash their vast fortunes when cities start blowing up and people leave their jobs to fight in the street? Who owns Fox News and what nationality is he? ---
**Author:** ![Major\_Matt\_Mason](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e274bd/32.png) [@Major\_Matt\_Mason](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Major_Matt_Mason)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 10:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/146 "2018-07-07T10:26:17Z")
I say target the dingbats on all sides. Eliminate the shit stirrers, and things get peaceful in a hurry… 😃 ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 10:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/147 "2018-07-07T10:53:48Z")
> [@BlankSlate](#): > > You’re missing a critical point, though: the left gets the scientists. Your military background won’t be worth shit when you’re suffocating in a cloud of sarin gas while your children are munching on some anthrax laced cookies. The occasional dirty bomb here and there should move things along. Really, the only worry is protecting the crops until we can enslave some survivors in MAGA hats for farming duties. I’m more left than right but that is just a ridiculous generalization. I know plenty of conservatives with engineering degrees. Moreover, there are many conservatives without formal engineering degrees in the military know how to turn ordinary household and commercial products into weapons, which is something your IT guy in Palo Alto, with all of his algorithms, does not have even the slightest idea about. If that doesn’t register, consider that there are probably any number of coal miners in Hatfield-McCoy country who are pretty good with dynamite, and they have ready access to it. Agrarians who lose their stead may still be nevertheless adept at living on a smaller, humbler piece of land and using its resources to sustain themselves. If you want to get a glimpse of what conservative rebellion might look like, just look at the militias - but in an organized civil conflict they’d probably be militias on steroids. And they’d be like a multi-headed hydra. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 11:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/148 "2018-07-07T11:02:40Z")
> [@foolsguinea](#): > > Cambodia did fall to the Khmer Rouge in the 1970’s as well, even if foreign invaders did push them out after a few years. I doubt we would see an organized agrarian revolution, but one scenario I could envision is growing numbers of militarist leagues of economically distressed ranchers, farmers, and small, independent manufacturers in rural America. This is one reason why the tandem of Trump’s trade war and rising interest rates is problematic. Interest rate surges crushed many farmers in the 1980s, which factored, at least to some degree, into the rise of militias in the decade that followed. Now people might stand back and say “Well, they would surely know that Trump and the Republicans are to blame for their misery, right?” That might be factually correct, but that might not be how they perceive their reality. Reagan’s economic policies had a lot to do with farming failures in the 1980s, but the movement became not an anti-Republican or anti-Democrat movement; it became an anti federal power movement, an anti-outside world movement. Some extremist groups didn’t even have much use for their local state and municipal governments, either. And once you throw some religion into the mix, literally anything goes. ---
**Author:** ![Kobal2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kobal2/32/20_2.png) [@Kobal2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kobal2)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 11:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/149 "2018-07-07T11:52:11Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Can anyone name any conflict in history between an urban and a rural side where the rural side was the one that won? first one to pop into my head : the [Social War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_War_(91%E2%80%9388_BC)). Admittedly it was more “Rome versus The Entire Rest of Italy” than urban vs. rural ; but there weren’t too many bustling metropolises beyond Rome at that point. Maybe some in Etruria. But most of the \*socii \*were dirt poor farmers relegated to shit land by Rome’s expansion - that was kind of the impetus behind the war. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/150 "2018-07-07T13:37:37Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > **Reagan’s economic policies had a lot to do with farming failures in the 1980s,** but the movement became not an anti-Republican or anti-Democrat movement; it became an anti federal power movement, an anti-outside world movement. Some extremist groups didn’t even have much use for their local state and municipal governments, either. I’ll walk this back a bit, as it’s oversimplification. There were other problems facing farmers, such as oversupply, the first visible signs of climate change (i.e. droughts in some areas), and other factors. Moreover, interest rates had already gotten pretty much out of control by the time Reagan took office. The previous post was accidentally too partisan; the point I was trying to make (clumsily) is that the farmers became anti-government more than just anti-democrat, even if they might identify with some of the stated tenets of Republican conservatism. ---
**Author:** ![Pantastic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3bc359/32.png) [@Pantastic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pantastic)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/151 "2018-07-07T14:53:20Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > Your putting of an “and” on that would imply that I said that all of these things would be concurrent, which is not something that I said. You did, in fact, clearly imply that they would be happening at the same time, and that it would all be within one election cycle. If they weren’t concurrent, then you don’t have an answer to the question of ‘why don’t people just vote instead of starting a civil war’. Don’t feel too bad about that; no one talking about civil war seems to have a good answer for why people will throw away their lifestyle and put their life at risk before they cast a ballot for something different. ---
**Author:** ![Deeg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deeg/32/2955_2.png) [@Deeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Deeg)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2018, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/152 "2018-07-08T14:54:37Z")
> [@madmonk28](#): > > It’s not sporadic it’s pretty constant. I would include mass shootings as element of it; they are in essence lone wolf operations inspired by the NRA similar to the lone wolf attacks inspired by ISIS. The fact is we do not have shared values, or a shared culture and we now have a president who is exploiting those divisions while intentionally breaking our political norms and pandering to white nationalism. It’s happening and it’s going to get worse. This is nothing compared to the 1970’s. [_According to FBI statistics, the United States experienced more than 2,500 domestic bombings in just 18 months in 1971 and 1972, with virtually no solved crimes and barely any significant prosecution_](https://www.thenation.com/article/remembering-left-wing-terrorism-1970s/), mostly from leftist groups like the Weather Underground. We haven’t anything as serious as the Kent State shooting. I’m not saying we don’t have problems–Trump by himself is a problem–but these problems aren’t worse than what we’ve experienced before. ---
**Author:** ![Club\_33](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/df705f/32.png) [@Club\_33](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Club_33)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2018, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/153 "2018-07-08T15:15:42Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I’ve heard people equate the NRA with terrorists before (and I thought it was a stupid argument then), but this is the first time I’ve heard anyone claim they actually “inspired” mass shootings. Which particular shootings do you think were “inspired by the NRA”? Perhaps the comment stems from this? From the Chicago Tribune: > [@](#): > > The troubled teen authorities say killed 17 people at a Florida high school excelled in an air-rifle marksmanship program supported by a grant from the National Rifle Association Foundation, part of a multimillion-dollar effort by the gun group to support youth shooting clubs and other programs. > > Nikolas Cruz, 19, was wearing a maroon shirt with the logo from the Army Junior Reserve Officer Training Corps program at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School when he was arrested Wednesday shortly after the shooting. > > [snip] > > “He was a very good shot,” said Aaron Diener, 20, who gave Cruz a ride to shooting competitions when they were part of the same four-member team in 2016. “He had an AR-15 he talked about, and pistols he had shot. … He would tell us, ‘Oh, it was so fun to shoot this rifle’ or ‘It was so fun to shoot that.’ It seemed almost therapeutic to him, the way he spoke about it.” Sure sounds like Cruz got some inspiration from that NRA-funded marksman training, wouldn’t you say? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2018, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/154 "2018-07-08T16:51:49Z")
> [@Club\_33](#): > > … Sure sounds like Cruz got some inspiration from that NRA-funded marksman training, wouldn’t you say? His “inspiration”? No, I would not say that. He may have gained some of his _skills_ from the air-rifle marksmanship program, but I don’t see any evidence that that was his “inspiration”. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2018, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/155 "2018-07-08T18:59:54Z")
Yeah that’s a pretty shaky definition of “inspired”…the NRA may be responsible for a lot of problems, but I fail to see how air-rifle target shooting classes are one of them. Those have existed forever, most people involved in that sport never shoot anyone. ---
**Author:** ![Club\_33](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/df705f/32.png) [@Club\_33](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Club_33)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2018, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/156 "2018-07-09T02:36:55Z")
Perhaps his newfound skills inspired him. Maybe the NRA skills he learned helped him develop his talents to the extent that he finally found something he was good at, killing his classmates. But please, sugarcoat their gun lessons. I’ve heard it all before. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2018, 5:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/157 "2018-07-09T05:48:34Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > Meh… the threat of college-educated chemists and mechanical engineers depends on trade and economy. As long as I can get Amazon deliveries, theoretically, potentially, I’m a very dangerous man. But if the economy is diverted to beans and bullets, there’s not much I can do. And I can’t imagine even a state-supported Confederacy or Union would invent anything much worse than the US invented in any given month in the 1960’s. > > Who does China like in this scenario? So much depends on this. But even then, does the Navy break north or south? You forget that the so-called red area is most of the map. And what lies under all that dirt? Minerals, oil, water. Which can be extracted and used to produce things. Such as weapons, power, food, etc. How much food can be grown in San Francisco or NYC? Furthermore, even if urban areas are disproportionately blue they aren’t homogeneous. Factional urban warfare would be nasty. Especially when power, water, and food are cut off from blue enclaves. Population density also hurts when the war turns nasty and arson and incendiary weaponry are used, sewers are blocked, and Putin supplies the Trumpists with a tiny bit of smallpox. All that said, Civil War II is something people should really work to avoid and not egg on. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2018, 6:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/158 "2018-07-09T06:48:24Z")
> [@Club\_33](#): > > Perhaps his newfound skills inspired him. … “Perhaps” indeed, but no one has provided any _evidence_ to support the idea. It remains just a wild theory trying too hard to slander the NRA. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2018, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/159 "2018-07-09T17:46:34Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > You forget that the so-called red area is most of the map. And what lies under all that dirt? Minerals, oil, water. Which can be extracted and used to produce things. Such as weapons, power, food, etc. I didn’t forget. Most of those modern factories will cease production after a week of being starved of fuel, materials, and replacement parts from overseas. And nowadays, farms are factories as well. All that stuff depends on bits and pieces that become extremely scarce if international trade is disrupted. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2018, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213/160 "2018-07-09T21:40:01Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > I didn’t forget. Most of those modern factories will cease production after a week of being starved of fuel, materials, and replacement parts from overseas. And nowadays, farms are factories as well. All that stuff depends on bits and pieces that become extremely scarce if international trade is disrupted. So if rural areas with access to raw materials are vulnerable to supply chain disruption how would cities fare better? They can’t even exist without importing water. And imagine the cities with no power. Hospitals would shut down. No food in the stores. I don’t think a few Starbucks sipping hippies working at Google would be enough to turn the tide and end the siege. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-an-american-civil-war-look-like/817213.md?page=9)