There could be a full-on civil war at some point, but what’s more possible in the foreseeable future is widespread unrest and a breakdown of political order.
If oligarchs continue to make disproportionate gains in income and wealth during times of economic expansion while the middle class and low-wage earners suffer disproportionate losses of jobs, income, and wealth during times of economic contraction, then we’ll eventually have essentially no middle class, or at minimum a middle class that is less visible.
People who are economically weak are in less of a position to demand things like health care. They’re in less of a position to attend university. They’re in less of a position to protest usury. They’re in less of a position to demand affordable housing. Over time they become invisible. They’re just trying to find income and trying to get by. They become preoccupied with their own desperation and pay less attention to democratic norms. See, loss of economic power is also the loss of political power; it’s the loss of democratic influence, one bankrupt or financially distressed person at a time.
In a sense, they (we) become indebted to the political class because regardless of whether or not the system is labeled “democratic”, there is no true democracy unless the great masses of people have some sort of equal standing. The rest of us become indebted to a political class because economically, everyone becomes more dependent on how the elite decide to spend the capital resources they possess or have access to. If a few people the vast majority of wealth, then the entire economy depends on the decisions they make. That is not democracy in fact even if it is democracy in name. That’s de facto indebtedness, probably in addition to the increasing levels of borrowing debt they’ve already incurred just to keep up the appearance of being in the middle class and living the middle class life.
The ruling elite are acutely aware of imbalance and are living in constant fear of backlash. So they will try to keep up the appearances of having a democracy. We’ll still have votes, but increasingly, the game of democracy will be played according to their rules. Even if they lose an election or two, they’ll do everything they can to undermine the short-term success of the opposition party. To use a term that’s entered the political lexicon here lately, they’ll use procedural warfare to disrupt and reverse any gains. They’ll use political gridlock. They’ll use the courts. They might even use the Constitution if they have enough political power. They’ll use a “democratic” system that they control to make everyone else think that democracy is unattainable and that it’s a joke to even think about getting it.
And that’s when a sense of collective desperation begins to settle in. That’s when the political atmosphere becomes explosive, because when the vast majority of people lose confidence and faith in a government to provide economic opportunity and justice, people will inevitably demand that the entire system be scrapped. It’s just a matter of how many people decide that it’s worth it to risk their own lives and jail to fight the system. That number depends on how dire the situation is for the average person. If we’re talking about unemployment at 10-12% and median incomes stagnating and gradually sinking toward low-middle class, then crime might go up but that probably doesn’t portend widespread outrage. But if 50-75% of people are living in serious economic distress, to the point where they’re wondering if they’ll even have food and clean water for the day, then we’ve got a problem. If long-term unemployment for young men in their 20s and 30s skyrockets to record levels, we’ve got a problem.
I doubt we’ll see a widespread regional conflict between states, or a conflict between urban and rural America. Financial pain will be widespread and felt by all. We might unfortunately have different opinions on the culprits for that pain, and I expect that situation to be exploited by the financial elite for as long as they can get away with it. I would expect propaganda campaigns that implicate ethnic minorities and immigrants, or people of certain religious affiliations. We could see a war on higher education. Right wing extremism will be a problem, and so too will left wing extremism in response. This is the real danger I see possible on the horizon.