# What would be the best strategy for the GOP to win against Obama in 2012? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 31, 2010, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-best-strategy-for-the-gop-to-win-against-obama-in-2012/552193 "2010-08-31T22:35:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2010, 11:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-best-strategy-for-the-gop-to-win-against-obama-in-2012/552193/21 "2010-09-01T11:38:45Z")
> [@jasonh300](#): > > The main thing the GOP needs to do is NOT have Sarah Palin … anywhere in the picture. I disagree: I don’t think Palin would work as a P or VP candidate (maybe VP if she clues herself up but …), but her forte is being a roving cheerleader and the Republicans would be shooting themselves in the foot if they did not use her as such. Since Palin wouldn’t be standing for P or VP, I wonder how they would pay her off? She’s not SoS calibre, and I don’t see her working as an ambassador. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2010, 12:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-best-strategy-for-the-gop-to-win-against-obama-in-2012/552193/22 "2010-09-01T12:05:30Z")
Wow you really are from another continent. I think you are wrong in a big way on at least two of these three points. > [@Stoneburg](#): > > Obviously it should be a white male, preferably a bit older than Obama. > … > > - End DADT. If the candidate has military credibility this will be easier. The message could be something like “I don’t have to like their lifestyle choice, but I have to respect the committment that they’ve made to their country. Anyone willing to die for this great nation deserves that respect”. > … > - Legalize marijuana. This should be easy really. You can make it about individual freedom or you can make it about how it will help the economy (allowing more taxt cuts!). Or you can just be honest about it and say that the scientifi evidence shows it is much less dangerous than alcohol, our prisons are over crowded with non-violent offenders and everyone smokes pot anyway. No reason it has to be a white male though it probably will be. But offering to legalize marijuana in the name of freedom would be unthinkable to most actual prospective candidates. I’m not sure about DADT. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2010, 12:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-best-strategy-for-the-gop-to-win-against-obama-in-2012/552193/23 "2010-09-01T12:07:03Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Since Palin wouldn’t be standing for P or VP, I wonder how they would pay her off? She’s not SoS calibre, and I don’t see her working as an ambassador. It’s not like she wants an administration job. She’ll take cash. ---
**Author:** ![JoelUpchurch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f05b48/32.png) [@JoelUpchurch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JoelUpchurch)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2010, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-best-strategy-for-the-gop-to-win-against-obama-in-2012/552193/24 "2010-09-01T12:59:11Z")
I think an ex-governor like Lamar Alexander or Jeb Bush would be the best choice. That shows they actually have some credentials in an executive position. Bush is better on paper, since he is from a swing state the Republicans must win. Condoleezza Rice has great credentials, but she doesn’t seem interested in elective office, but they might get her to accept a nomination for VP. ---
**Author:** ![Baboonanza](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/f475e1/32.png) [@Baboonanza](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baboonanza)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2010, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-best-strategy-for-the-gop-to-win-against-obama-in-2012/552193/25 "2010-09-01T13:48:51Z")
I think the biggest problem for the GOP is the Tea Party. I’ll cross post from the other thread since it’s actually more relevant here: > [@](#): > > The Tea Party movement makes it even more difficult for a candidate to walk the tight-rope between middle-ground support and satisfying the base. In theory a middle-ground candidate could do it because the Republican’s hate of Obama woud be a good enough motivator to vote that they wouldn’t have to cater to the base too much, but the Tea Party wouldn’t allow that IMO. > > I expect anyone the GOP nominates will have to have signed up to the Tea Party bat-shittery in order to get through the primaries and thus be completely unelectable. What the Republican party needs to do is clamp down on their base. Unless they can get the Tea Party and it’s pushers like Beck to shut-up and accept some compromises they don’t stand a chance because they won’t be able to field anyone capable of getting wide centralist support. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2010, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-best-strategy-for-the-gop-to-win-against-obama-in-2012/552193/26 "2010-09-01T14:37:05Z")
Here’s the scenario (unfortunately) as I see it: Obama loses control in the House this November; he also loses a filibuster-proof Senate majority. The economy continues to tank-Timmy Geithner resigns, and a new Sec. of the Treasury takes control. Obama wants more massive “stimulus” spending; the Congress balks-and the international credit markets downgrade the USD. Oil prices take off…and car sales tank. GM and Chrysler lapse into bankrupcy…and Obama (frantically) tries another “cash for clunkers” plan. Meanwhile, the US and Nato forces take heavy losses- the Afghan government falls, and Karzai moves to a cozy villa in Switzerland. Germany, France, Spain, etc. give the US an ultimatum-get out of Afghanistan now. Sensing the moment is right, the Israelis decide to destroy the Bushehr reactor-Iran retaliates with missile strikes on Tel Aviv. Not a nice picture. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2010, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-best-strategy-for-the-gop-to-win-against-obama-in-2012/552193/27 "2010-09-01T14:38:53Z")
Pure fantasy. -XT ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2010, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-best-strategy-for-the-gop-to-win-against-obama-in-2012/552193/28 "2010-09-01T14:59:17Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > Here’s the scenario (unfortunately) as I see it: > Obama loses control in the House this November; he also loses a filibuster-proof Senate majority. > The economy continues to tank-Timmy Geithner resigns, and a new Sec. of the Treasury takes control. Obama wants more massive “stimulus” spending; the Congress balks-and the international credit markets downgrade the USD. > Oil prices take off..and car sales tank. GM and Chrysler lapse into bankrupcy..and Obama (frantically) tries another “cash for clunkers” plan. > Meanwhile, the US and Nato forces take heavy losses- the Afghan government falls, and Karzai moves to a cozy villa in Switzerland. Germany, France, Spain, etc. give the US an ultimatum-get out of Afghanistan now. > Sensing the moment is right, the Israelis decide to destroy the Bushehr reactor-Iran retaliates with missile strikes on Tel Aviv. > Not a nice picture. _fap fap fap_ ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2010, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-best-strategy-for-the-gop-to-win-against-obama-in-2012/552193/29 "2010-09-01T15:02:16Z")
> [@JoelUpchurch](#): > > I think an ex-governor like Lamar Alexander or Jeb Bush would be the best choice. That shows they actually have some credentials in an executive position. Bush is better on paper, since he is from a swing state the Republicans must win. Condoleezza Rice has great credentials, but she doesn’t seem interested in elective office, but they might get her to accept a nomination for VP. Mitch Daniels. Not named Bush. Comes from a state Obama won that any Republican challenger must flip back. Good southern-sounding name. High approval ratings. Relatively blank slate (i.e. Tea Partiers can claim him while independents don’t already hate him). Went to Princeton, got caught smoking pot there. Noted budget hawk. No foreign policy credentials, but that didn’t hurt GWB. Relatively unknown, but also perhaps not an overwhelming obstacle in a field where all of the big names are despised by at least part of the voting pool (Romney, Newt, Palin, Huckaby…). Another possibility is Haley Barbour, but he seems too Southern to me. ---
**Author:** ![hansel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/6bbea6/32.png) [@hansel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hansel)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2010, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-best-strategy-for-the-gop-to-win-against-obama-in-2012/552193/30 "2010-09-01T16:29:29Z")
> [@Cyberhwk](#): > > Why would they change from their current approach? Republicans have now achieved a nearly unprecedented advantage in the [congressional generic ballot](http://www.gallup.com/poll/142718/GOP-Unprecedented-Lead-Generic-Ballot.aspx). Because the presidency is a very different race from a congressional district. The presidency is all-or-nothing; pushing tea party candidates around the country is a much safer strategy because losing some races (like Hofstader in New York) has only an incremental effect on the larger effort that’s offset with victories like primarying Bob Bennett or Lisa Murkowski. ---
**Author:** ![Markxxx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/5daacb/32.png) [@Markxxx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Markxxx)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2010, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-best-strategy-for-the-gop-to-win-against-obama-in-2012/552193/31 "2010-09-01T18:34:16Z")
Too early. In 2006 who knew of Mr Obama. 2012 election will be about the economy. If the Democrats want to win, they need to convince America things are better. People usually vote in or out the party in control depending on their pocketbooks. ---
**Author:** ![pohjonen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pohjonen/32/423_2.png) [@pohjonen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pohjonen)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2010, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-best-strategy-for-the-gop-to-win-against-obama-in-2012/552193/32 "2010-09-01T20:58:37Z")
I think if the Republicans can find someone merely palatable to both its establishment wing and the teaparty crowd, they’ve about got it in the bag. I’m pretty convinced that the formerly “hopeful” but now disillusioned left will be staying home. ---
**Author:** ![Mr\_Smashy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/2bfe46/32.png) [@Mr\_Smashy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr_Smashy)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2010, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-best-strategy-for-the-gop-to-win-against-obama-in-2012/552193/33 "2010-09-01T21:12:07Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > Another possibility is Haley Barbour, but he seems too Southern to me. I hope any tubby StraightDopers don’t take this the wrong way, but Haley’s too fat. Don’t think that looks don’t factor into the equation. I know that NJ just elected a husky guy, but that’s only because the state was in financial meltdown from Corzine and so many years of Dem policies. Personally, I think \*\*Cyberhwk \*\*has it right. That, plus it will come down to the unemployment. And don’t think the indy’s (me included) aren’t incredibly concerned with the deficit and massive debt we’re enslaving our kids (and theirs) with - those are the [two most important issues](http://www.pollingreport.com/prioriti.htm) as far as the country is concerned. And 2 years of Obama’s rule, and 6 of Dem Congressional rule, will be easy to run against; the GOP will just say, look at the results. If the economy and budget situation massively rebounds by then, then they’ll have to have a real issue or two. ---
**Author:** ![Page\_Fault](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ad7895/32.png) [@Page\_Fault](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Page_Fault)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2010, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-best-strategy-for-the-gop-to-win-against-obama-in-2012/552193/34 "2010-09-01T21:41:54Z")
> [@Mr\_Smashy](#): > > And 2 years of Obama’s rule, and 6 of Dem Congressional rule, will be easy to run against; the GOP will just say, look at the results. 6 years of Democrats in Congress? Are you expecting them to hold their majority through the upcoming election? ---
**Author:** ![Mr\_Smashy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/2bfe46/32.png) [@Mr\_Smashy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr_Smashy)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2010, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-best-strategy-for-the-gop-to-win-against-obama-in-2012/552193/35 "2010-09-02T00:29:39Z")
> [@Page\_Fault](#): > > > [@Mr\_Smashy](#): > > > > And 2 years of Obama’s rule, and 6 of Dem Congressional rule, will be easy to run against; the GOP will just say, look at the results. > > 6 years of Democrats in Congress? Are you expecting them to hold their majority through the upcoming election? Fair point. I expect that, in 2010 the GOP will run against the unchecked lefty policies from Obama , and 4 yrs of Dem rule, getting us what we have now. In 2012, it will be a) stop the madman Obama, b) let’s get the Senate back too, and c) they’ll have a few ideas by then (maybe) on how to fix what’s probably still going to be a sorry state of affairs, budget-wise and economy-wise. My guess is that their ideas will be mostly recycled stuff. They will probably claim that the 2 years since they kicked Pelosi out of her gold-plated jet isn’t enough time to fix things. \*big disclaimer: if Iran starts any shit and either nukes Tel Aviv or mines the straits of Hormuz and oil is $300/barrel, the GOP will focus way more on stopping terrorism, keeping America safe, get tough with our enemies, etc. ---
**Author:** ![Sitnam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Sitnam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sitnam)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2010, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-best-strategy-for-the-gop-to-win-against-obama-in-2012/552193/36 "2010-09-02T01:16:57Z")
Even Democrat supporters will often agree that their party is full of pussies, and I believe even the farthest left will begrudgingly respect conservative solidarity. The GOP needs a solid candidate that shrugs the religiosity and hard headedness of the far Right and has a fresh outlook on the future. And while doing so if the man or woman calmly and intelligently puts Rush and Beck in their place that’d go far with me. I consider myself a left leaning moderate and I’d like to vote for someone who ‘cleans house’ regardless of political affiliation and it’s my prerogative to define what cleaning house means. ---
**Author:** ![Cyberhwk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/7993a0/32.png) [@Cyberhwk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cyberhwk)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2010, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-best-strategy-for-the-gop-to-win-against-obama-in-2012/552193/37 "2010-09-02T03:32:26Z")
> [@waterj2](#): > > Of course, there are some huge potential pitfalls for the GOP in this plan. For one thing, the public might blame the Republicans if two years after voting them in, everything has gotten worse. Especially if making things worse is their actual plan. But people don’t THINK this much. It’s extremely common. Baseball managers take the fall for bad seasons and CEOs take the fall for a year of bad earnings that were not their fault. If things are good, people vote the status quo, if not, they vote for a change, and the change usually comes at the top regardless of their actual culpability. > [@](#): > > Lastly, though, what happens if it works? Exactly what will the Palin/Bachmann administration do when they take over the country with unemployment pushing 15%? Pass a major capital gains tax cut and buy stock in Fox News and ammo companies, so they can at least retire rich? Start a war with Iran? Repeal health care reform, and pass tax breaks for the rich, then try to pretend that the trillions added to the long-term debt outlook don’t exist? Yes. Not sure about war with Iran, though no doubt heightened tensions would be useful politically like Islamaphobia was in 2004. As far as deficit expanding tax cuts… **I guarantee it**. In fact, after a campaign about government spending and deficits, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if H.R. 1 of the 112th Congress was a revenue negative tax cut bill. And they don’t even have to write new speeches. Just print off another copy of the ones they gave when they approved the last ones in 2001. They’re ALREADY pretending the trillions added to the debt don’t exist. The same people so terrified at deficits are the same people that caused them by approving the cuts in 2001 and rubber stamping the deficit spending during the Bush administration. > [@hansel](#): > > Because the presidency is a very different race from a congressional district. The presidency is all-or-nothing; pushing tea party candidates around the country is a much safer strategy because losing some races (like Hofstader in New York) has only an incremental effect on the larger effort that’s offset with victories like primarying Bob Bennett or Lisa Murkowski. Except the people that vote this November are going to be the EXACT same people selecting the Republican candidate in 2012. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2010, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-best-strategy-for-the-gop-to-win-against-obama-in-2012/552193/38 "2010-09-02T14:53:34Z")
Thought I’d share [this](http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20100902/us_time/08599201562900) article (though I don’t know how accurate it is, or whether, accurate or not, it’s going to be believed around here), which sort of underlines my own brief comment on what the GOP can do: > [@](#): > > Today that view of Obama is harder to find in Indiana. A couple of weeks back and a dozen miles west of Elkhart, hundreds gathered in another school gym - except this time it was for a job fair. With the local unemployment rate above 12% and rising again this summer, about a third of the employer display tables stood empty. Julie Griffin, who voted for Obama in '08, sat down at the room’s edge, well dressed and discouraged. After 23 years as a payroll administrator at a local RV plant, she got laid off 18 months ago. “Really, what has he been doing?” she said when I asked about Obama’s efforts to help people like her. “I guess I don’t know what he is doing.” (See TIME’s 2008 Person of the Year: Barack Obama.) > [@](#): > > Across the gym floor, Joe Donnelly, Elkhart’s pro-life, pro-gun Democratic Congressman, worked the crowd. He was part of the moderate wave that won Congress for Nancy Pelosi in '06, and he was re-elected with 67% of the vote while campaigning for Obama in '08. The President has since returned to the region three times, but Donnelly is nonetheless fighting for his political life. In a recent television ad, an unflattering photo of Obama and Pelosi flashes while Donnelly condemns “the Washington crowd.” This is basically a Democratic campaign slogan now: Don’t blame me for Obama and Pelosi. “I’m not one of them,” Donnelly told me when I caught up with him. “I’m one of us.” It’s all about the economy, and about how well people PERCEIVE their government, especially their president, is doing. If they THINK he’s doing a good job, or if the economy is doing well, then an incumbent has a huge advantage and the opposing party might as well just run a token candidate and wait for the worm to turn. The thing is, the Dems are going to have to associate all the stuff going wrong right now with Bush and the Republicans, and then they are going to need to hammer that home. But as time goes by and people forget about Bush, it’s going to become more and more difficult to keep beating that dead horse. Mind, I’m not saying that there isn’t some truth to the fact that Bush and the Republicans are responsible for the lions share of what’s going on, just that it will be increasingly difficult to keep going back to that well, as the Dems have had control of the House and Senate for several years now, and as Bush has been out of the picture and the public’s eye for a while. It hasn’t helped that Bush has STAYED out of the public’s eye, pretty much retiring as a public person and keeping his comments to himself…it further fades the memory of him and his presidency from peoples perceptions. The article I linked too may just be a bit of Republican propaganda, or some anti-Dem/anti-Obama writer with an axe to grind (or it may be overhyped sensationalism), but I think the key is going to be the state of the economy and who is in charge. If the economy continues to suck, if we continue to shed jobs (I read that the US lost an additional and unexpected 40k jobs over the summer), then the Republicans have a real chance to recapture seats in the House and Senate…and if it’s still sucking when Obama runs, he might actually have a fight on his hands. I didn’t think this would be the case, but lately I’ve been rethinking that and wondering how this will all play out. The best bet for the Dems isn’t to try and keep the blame firmly on the Republicans, but, instead, to have the economy really pick up (won’t help them this election cycle in the House and Senate), as that will certainly shift public opinion. -XT ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2010, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-best-strategy-for-the-gop-to-win-against-obama-in-2012/552193/39 "2010-09-02T15:01:49Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > Here’s the scenario (unfortunately) as I see it: > Obama loses control in the House this November; he also loses a filibuster-proof Senate majority. > The economy continues to tank-Timmy Geithner resigns, and a new Sec. of the Treasury takes control. Obama wants more massive “stimulus” spending; the Congress balks-and the international credit markets downgrade the USD. > Oil prices take off..and car sales tank. GM and Chrysler lapse into bankrupcy..and Obama (frantically) tries another “cash for clunkers” plan. > Meanwhile, the US and Nato forces take heavy losses- the Afghan government falls, and Karzai moves to a cozy villa in Switzerland. Germany, France, Spain, etc. give the US an ultimatum-get out of Afghanistan now. > Sensing the moment is right, the Israelis decide to destroy the Bushehr reactor-Iran retaliates with missile strikes on Tel Aviv. > Not a nice picture. Why do you hate America? ---
**Author:** ![Stoneburg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/df705f/32.png) [@Stoneburg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stoneburg)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2010, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-best-strategy-for-the-gop-to-win-against-obama-in-2012/552193/40 "2010-09-02T19:29:11Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > Stoneburg, do you know what a ‘dark horse’ candidate is? It’s hard to tell with you. Yes, it was merely a aleep deprived attempt at humor. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-best-strategy-for-the-gop-to-win-against-obama-in-2012/552193.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-best-strategy-for-the-gop-to-win-against-obama-in-2012/552193.md?page=3)