I don’t think they’re stupid at all. I think they’re just trying to sell their clients a new load of bullshit they can make money off. It’s just the same shit repeated endlessly.
How do we know how efficient a market is?? Is there some way to measure it?
It seems to me that over the last five years we learned that it was entirely possible for sellers of very risky mortgage-based derivatives to make tons of money and get others to assume risk by exploiting asymmetries of information in the market. The market was believed to be efficient, but it in fact was not.
You’re likely right that the pension managers are foolish, but I think they’re likely to get taken to the cleaners by some bankers, similarly to the dynamic in the last crisis. Some bankers, like those at Countrywide, lost out too, but many banks made a surprising amount of money from the crisis.
But more importantly, I don’t think an argument that relies on knowing or assuming how efficient a market is will hold water.
It’s also possible that increased competition will increase the number of banks that are willing to pay or waive ATM fees you incur. USAA bank does this, but I don’t know of any others at the moment.