# What would be the long term consequences if Ireland had got independence earlier? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [July 5, 2024, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-long-term-consequences-if-ireland-had-got-independence-earlier/1003779 "2024-07-05T19:27:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2024, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-long-term-consequences-if-ireland-had-got-independence-earlier/1003779/1 "2024-07-05T19:27:13Z")
So the history of Ireland is littered with unsuccessful rebellions against British rule, some of them coming fairly close to succeeding, almost one every generation for centuries (Nine Years War, Confederate War, Young Ireland Revolt, etc.) In the counterfactual universe where one of them succeeded how different does British and world history look to the IRL universe where Ireland only received independence In 1919? IMO in the universe where say the Indian “mutiny” is remembered as the successful Indian war of independence, then British and world history looks totally different. Conversely if the American War of independence was instead remembered as the unsuccessful American Mutiny of 1776, it would have had made a huge difference to both British and World history (even it all it did was delay independence for a generation that would have made a huge difference to subsequent events IMO) But I really don’t see an independent Ireland happening 100, 200 or even 300 years early making a massive difference to anyone’s history except Ireland’s. You’d have a few less troops available to Britain in the various wars over the centuries (but also the troops and resources required to garrison Ireland wouldn’t be needed either). Presumably in this universe Ireland would not be as avowedly neutral as modern Ireland is, but also they wouldn’t have any particularly reason to be particularly partisan in the ensuing centuries of European conflict either. I guess the existence or not of northern Ireland in the UK would be a pretty big change, but even that is not guaranteed (presumably negotiating that would be just as much a priority for 19th or 18th century Britain as 20th century IRL Britain) What says the dope? You may pick any Irish rebellion as your counterfactual start of Irish independence (this is a counterfactual no need to show that there was a reasonable chance of success IRL) ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2024, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-long-term-consequences-if-ireland-had-got-independence-earlier/1003779/2 "2024-07-05T19:34:51Z")
One possible large difference in such an alternate history is whether the massive diaspora of the Irish – particularly to England and the U.S., and particularly during and after the Great Famine – would have occurred. That mass emigration halved Ireland’s population (comparing 1840 to 1900), and the population continued to decline into the 20th century. Hypothetically, an independent Ireland could have had better economic opportunities for its citizens, and could have been able to cope better with the famine, and thus, would not have suffered such a population loss. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2024, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-long-term-consequences-if-ireland-had-got-independence-earlier/1003779/3 "2024-07-05T19:39:46Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > One possible large difference in such an alternate history is whether the massive diaspora of the Irish – particularly to England and the U.S., and particularly during and after the Great Famine – would have occurred. True, but it’s not like emigration declined that much after independence ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2024, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-long-term-consequences-if-ireland-had-got-independence-earlier/1003779/4 "2024-07-05T20:16:22Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > True, but it’s not like emigration declined that much after independence Compared to the Great Famine period, and the rest of the 19th century, emigration certainly did slow down. According to this Wikipedia article, the population of the island as a whole declined from 8.18 million in 1841, to 4.46 million in 1901 (a 45% decline in 60 years) – though note that about 1 million of that loss in population was deaths during the Great Famine. From 1901 to 1961 (another 60-year span), the island’s population continued a slow decline, dropping to 4.25 million by 1961 (an overall decline of 5% in 60 years), before it began to rebound. > **[Historical population of Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_population_of_Ireland)** > > The population of Ireland in 2021 was approximately seven million with 1,903,100 in Northern Ireland and 5,123,536 in the Republic of Ireland. In the 2022 census the population of the Republic of Ireland eclipsed five million for the first time since the 1851 census. The population of Ireland in 2016 was approximately 6.6 million (4.75 million in the Republic of Ireland and 1.85 million in Northern Ireland). Although these figures demonstrate significant growth over recent years, t Between 17... ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2024, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-long-term-consequences-if-ireland-had-got-independence-earlier/1003779/5 "2024-07-05T20:36:48Z")
Not my area of expertise at all. Just dropping by to point out that “winning independence” doesn’t always stay won. Regardless of which countrie(s) we’re discussing. The longer ago some counterfactual Ireland won its independence, the greater the chance some later counterfactual English King would fancy his chances taking it back. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2024, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-long-term-consequences-if-ireland-had-got-independence-earlier/1003779/6 "2024-07-05T21:07:37Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > The longer ago some counterfactual Ireland won its independence, the greater the chance some later counterfactual English King would fancy his chances taking it back Though there wouldn’t be a huge impetus for them to do so. An independent Ireland wouldn’t threaten Britains more far flung empire which is where thier priorities were for all modern history ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2024, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-long-term-consequences-if-ireland-had-got-independence-earlier/1003779/7 "2024-07-05T21:33:29Z")
True. Depending on how much Ireland becsme a pirate base of operations. They would not have had to take too many shoploads of New Wold plunder to be declared a problem needing a drastic solution. Or how much trouble they chose to foment w the perennially difficult Scots. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2024, 12:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-long-term-consequences-if-ireland-had-got-independence-earlier/1003779/8 "2024-07-07T12:26:47Z")
In this hypothetical, what are we assuming happens with Northern Ireland? ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2024, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-long-term-consequences-if-ireland-had-got-independence-earlier/1003779/9 "2024-07-09T03:52:50Z")
That’s very much TBC based on the details of the hypothetical. On one hand the same motivations the British government had for insisting on keeping northern Ireland in n 1919 would exist a hundred or two hundred years earlier. On the other a victorious Ireland in say the 9 years war would look nothing like the situation in 1919, with much less for the British government to negotiate ---
**Author:** ![SanVito](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sanvito/32/2805_2.png) [@SanVito](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SanVito)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2024, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-long-term-consequences-if-ireland-had-got-independence-earlier/1003779/10 "2024-07-09T12:59:01Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > Though there wouldn’t be a huge impetus for them to do so. An independent Ireland wouldn’t threaten Britains more far flung empire which is where thier priorities were for all modern history Except suddenly we’ve got a Catholic enemy on our western flank, which could well align with our other Catholic enemies on the Continent. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2024, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-long-term-consequences-if-ireland-had-got-independence-earlier/1003779/11 "2024-07-09T16:50:15Z")
> [@SanVito](#): > > Except suddenly we’ve got a Catholic enemy on our western flank, which could well align with our other Catholic enemies on the Continent. Though they were surrounded by those anyway (and much more menacing much closer ones) I don’t see how having a fairly weak Catholic neighbor across the Irish as would be that much of threat, especially compared to the cost of keep Ireland subdued and keeping our interventions there from those more menacing mainland Catholic powers. Of course states do not always act rationally and the loss of of Ireland would certainly rankle the British monarchy. If there was an invasion or series of invasions by Britain that would certainly make British and European history look very differently.