# What would be the main factors affecting the outcome of a Clinton vs. Rubio election? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 5, 2016, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-main-factors-affecting-the-outcome-of-a-clinton-vs-rubio-election/745249 "2016-02-05T17:42:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2016, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-main-factors-affecting-the-outcome-of-a-clinton-vs-rubio-election/745249/61 "2016-02-09T02:20:50Z")
> [@Stringbean](#): > > If I may take a moment to clarify, this post was meant to satirize **Qin Shi Huangdi** ’s ridiculous and unfounded claim that Rubio is a closeted homosexual. > > Not that there’s anything wrong with that if he is…I’d still vote for him. Well, [there’s plenty that **is** wrong with him.](http://www.salon.com/2016/02/08/marco_rubios_repetitive_extremism_yes_he_repeats_himself_and_what_comes_out_of_his_mouth_is_straight_up_bonkers/) ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2016, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-main-factors-affecting-the-outcome-of-a-clinton-vs-rubio-election/745249/62 "2016-02-09T13:04:16Z")
There’s plenty wrong with everyone at the higher levels of politics. Which is why I wonder why opponents feel the need to make stuff up. It’s a target rich environment as it is for most of these clowns. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2016, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-main-factors-affecting-the-outcome-of-a-clinton-vs-rubio-election/745249/63 "2016-02-09T13:13:29Z")
I don’t care if Rubio has a secret homosexual history. Lord knows that many things have been intimated about Hillary being a closet lesbian over the years. Who cares? So many presidents have been adulterers that who cares if someone went the other way in his/her past? Hillary would swallow Rubio whole, chew him up, and spit out the wiring in a debate with him. It would make Bambi vs Godzilla look like an even match. Not to worry, Rubio isn’t going to win the nomination. His downward spiral starts tonight. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2016, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-main-factors-affecting-the-outcome-of-a-clinton-vs-rubio-election/745249/64 "2016-02-09T13:16:57Z")
She won’t because she doesn’t. We’ve watched so many debates with her. She’s good, has a great command of the issues, but her attacks tend to be cautious. She never goes for the jugular the way Christie did. And she won’t go off script. When her attacks are parried, she doesn’t follow up. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2016, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-main-factors-affecting-the-outcome-of-a-clinton-vs-rubio-election/745249/65 "2016-02-09T13:34:58Z")
You’ve only seen her debate fellow Democrats. She will not pull punches when she gets to fight against the forces of evil. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2016, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-main-factors-affecting-the-outcome-of-a-clinton-vs-rubio-election/745249/66 "2016-02-09T13:42:24Z")
Oh, she’ll suddenly be willing to take risks? Rubio’s focus groups are just as good as hers. She’ll make her scripted attack, he’ll make his scripted response, draw. To beat Rubio in a debate you have to be willing to do what Christie did, say what you mean without knowing in advance if the audience will appreciate it, and when he hits you with a canned response, go after him again. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2016, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-main-factors-affecting-the-outcome-of-a-clinton-vs-rubio-election/745249/67 "2016-02-09T17:18:05Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Which is why I wonder why opponents feel the need to make stuff up. Similarly, I often wonder why posters on message boards feel the need to make stuff up about candidates. Someday, you’ll have to explain it. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2016, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-main-factors-affecting-the-outcome-of-a-clinton-vs-rubio-election/745249/68 "2016-02-09T17:27:01Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Not to worry, Rubio isn’t going to win the nomination. His downward spiral starts tonight. Well, somebody has to be the “Establishment-lane” candidate, the notCruznotTrump. Do you see Jeb making a comeback? Or Christie, or Kasich? ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2016, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-main-factors-affecting-the-outcome-of-a-clinton-vs-rubio-election/745249/69 "2016-02-09T17:41:40Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And Rubio isn’t the most Presidential. He’s the most young, attractive, and articulate of the field. “Most articulate”? Are we talking about the same Rubio? Did you notice when he could only _repeat the same memorized jibe **three** (or four?) times_ in the recent debate? Kasich is articulate. So are Christie, Cruz, and some of the already-gone GOP contenders. If Rubio is the future buy stock in teleprompter companies. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2016, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-main-factors-affecting-the-outcome-of-a-clinton-vs-rubio-election/745249/70 "2016-02-09T17:53:36Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Oh, she’ll suddenly be willing to take risks? Rubio’s focus groups are just as good as hers. She’ll make her scripted attack, he’ll make his scripted response, draw. To beat Rubio in a debate you have to be willing to do what Christie did, say what you mean without knowing in advance if the audience will appreciate it, and when he hits you with a canned response, go after him again. I think you’re deluding yourself if you think Clinton isn’t willing to go very, very negative in a general election. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2016, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-main-factors-affecting-the-outcome-of-a-clinton-vs-rubio-election/745249/71 "2016-02-09T18:05:01Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Well, somebody has to be the “Establishment-lane” candidate, the notCruznotTrump. Do you see Jeb making a comeback? Or Christie, or Kasich? I don’t see the establishment lane getting the nomination this time around. I think it’s 1964 deja vu. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2016, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-main-factors-affecting-the-outcome-of-a-clinton-vs-rubio-election/745249/72 "2016-02-09T18:06:45Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Well, somebody has to be the “Establishment-lane” candidate, the notCruznotTrump. Do you see Jeb making a comeback? Or Christie, or Kasich? Winning the establishment lane doesn’t make you the nominee. If Rubio does not beat Bush, Kasich, and Christie tonight, the establishment lane is going to continue to be contested, making it very hard for any of them to beat Trump/Cruz. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2016, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-main-factors-affecting-the-outcome-of-a-clinton-vs-rubio-election/745249/73 "2016-02-09T19:24:28Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > … in exit polling in 2004, the black vote went 88/11 for Kerry, but in 2012 it went 93/6 for Obama. So Obama definitely benefited from a higher black vote percentage. And more importantly, he also increased black voter turnout. In 2004 61.4% of black voters turned out at the polls. In 2008 it was 69.1%. So almost 8% more blacks voted, and the percentage of them that voted for the Democrat also increased. > > So what do the Democrats lose if the black vote goes back to historical levels? There’s [a webpage designed to answer just this type of question.](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/) Leaving all other controls at their default (2012) setting, but moving Black from (93,66) all the way to an unreasonable (76,50), _ **the electoral college still goes Blue** _ (albeit with Red winning the popular vote by 1.3%). (That scenario comes down to Democrats winning the same tipping states I identified in the thread “Colorado is no better than New Hampshire” in this forum – CO, IA, NH, NV, WI – all states with few Blacks.) I also worry that the GOP might win the White House, but Black enthusiasm isn’t a factor that concerns me. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2016, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-main-factors-affecting-the-outcome-of-a-clinton-vs-rubio-election/745249/74 "2016-02-09T19:32:25Z")
> [@](#): > > … _ **the electoral college still goes Blue** _ (albeit with Red winning the popular vote by 1.3%)… Does anyone doubt that in a scenario like that, the legislature of a state like Wisconsin or Michigan would push hard to compel its electors to vote for the “popular choice”? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2016, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-main-factors-affecting-the-outcome-of-a-clinton-vs-rubio-election/745249/75 "2016-02-09T19:57:17Z")
Rather difficult to change the laws applicable to an election while it’s already in progress. A state legislature could certainly promptly change the rules to take effect 4 years hence. But a legislature saying “the people have just voted and we want to change what that means for the election they voted in” is not gonna get past any honest court. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2016, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-main-factors-affecting-the-outcome-of-a-clinton-vs-rubio-election/745249/76 "2016-02-09T20:07:26Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Rather difficult to change the laws applicable to an election while it’s already in progress. A state legislature could certainly promptly change the rules to take effect 4 years hence. > > But a legislature saying “the people have just voted and we want to change what that means for the election they voted in” is not gonna get past any honest court. Are you saying the Presidential election is already in progress? I would disagree with that. Primaries and the conventions are whole different things. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2016, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-main-factors-affecting-the-outcome-of-a-clinton-vs-rubio-election/745249/77 "2016-02-09T21:16:02Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Does anyone doubt that in a scenario like that, the legislature of a state like Wisconsin or Michigan would push hard to compel its electors to vote for the “popular choice”? How would a legislature do that? What pressure could they apply? Why didn’t any state try this in 2000? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2016, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-main-factors-affecting-the-outcome-of-a-clinton-vs-rubio-election/745249/78 "2016-02-09T21:31:09Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I think you’re deluding yourself if you think Clinton isn’t willing to go very, very negative in a general election. Of course she will. But in a very focus grouped way. She’ll stick to her script. There won’t be any Christie moments. Rubio is on much safer ground against her because he’ll be able to anticipate all of her attacks and she won’t be willing to ad lib a cutting followup. She had so many chances against Obama but always held back. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2016, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-main-factors-affecting-the-outcome-of-a-clinton-vs-rubio-election/745249/79 "2016-02-09T21:34:07Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Does anyone doubt that in a scenario like that, the legislature of a state like Wisconsin or Michigan would push hard to compel its electors to vote for the “popular choice”? I think it unlikely absent evidence of fraud in a very close race in one of those states. It would have to be a very unusual situation. And then they’d still have to lobby electors chosen by Democratic leaders to switch their votes, which would be hard. I think if Republicans win the popular vote, they call it a moral victory and move on. If they actually did win the popular vote, that means they probably also held the Senate and maybe even won some House seats. Hard to call that an unsuccessful election even if the White House is occupied by a Democrat. I also think such an outcome is unlikely. Whoever wins the popular vote, even by a small margin, wins the electoral vote absent some very unlikely circumstances. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2016, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-main-factors-affecting-the-outcome-of-a-clinton-vs-rubio-election/745249/80 "2016-02-09T21:35:58Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Of course she will. But in a very focus grouped way. She’ll stick to her script. There won’t be any Christie moments. Rubio is on much safer ground against her because he’ll be able to anticipate all of her attacks and she won’t be willing to ad lib a cutting followup. She had so many chances against Obama but always held back. Sounds like wishful thinking. General election debating is very different than primary debating. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-main-factors-affecting-the-outcome-of-a-clinton-vs-rubio-election/745249.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-be-the-main-factors-affecting-the-outcome-of-a-clinton-vs-rubio-election/745249.md?page=5)