Here’s some more info on H5N1.
Khan, they died from an overreaction of the immune system. Bosdas link has more info. This is important because this sort of bug would kill the young adults as well as the usual children/elderly demographic.
Here’s a buttload of info from the CDC
Here’s some info on antigenic shift, which is the main thing that has scientific folk in a tizzy.
Preparing for a Pandemic, a special report from the November 2005 issue of Scientific American.
If 25 percent of the US were to fall ill, and using the current mortality rate of 50 percent, with a US population of roughly 300 million, 25 percent is 75 million and half that number may die, or about 37.5 million.
On what do you base this, Sam? The flu can’t be cured at a price like a lot of bacterial infections, and it spreads readily, so I have trouble imagining that developed countries will be spared because of greater resources; particularly since they’ve mentioned repeatedly on the news that this year’s flu vaccine does not protect you against the avian flu strain that’s of concern. Not to mention that lots of bodies in too tight quarters are the best way of spreading it, and I don’t know when you last visited a city in the US, but lots of them are ripe for that sort of disaster.
Not to mention that if you read books that researched the history of influenza, ones like the 1918 flu didn’t work “right” and hit formerly healthy young people as hard, if not harder than people in other age brackets. AFAIK it’s impossible to predict right now if it will act like a “normal” flu, or affect the groups you’d least expect it to.
For a really good speculative fiction version of this scenario, you could do worse than Earth Abides by George R. Stewart. It’s a bit dated now, having been written I think about 50 years ago, but the concept is wonderful. A young man has been isolated in the mountains for several weeks and returns to find that most of humankind has been wiped out by a deadly influenza and its aftermath.
Regarding the 50% mortality rate and how that plays into projections of total killed
This is complete speculation, but perhaps there’s an inverse relationship between mortality rate and spread, such that especially-virulent strains (e.g. above 20% mortality) have trouble propagating and are more easily contained. Fewer survivors = fewer carriers and reduced penetration into the overall population.
I just assumed that poorer countries would be hit harder because they have poorer medical treatment for the sick and because in many areas the people are malnourished and weak already.
I disagree. Even an airborne disease can’t spread faster than information about it, carried by telephone, television or internet. As soon as the first human case is identified, whole mechanisms exist to track contacts and minimize further spread. Barring some ridiculously improbable circumstance, like several thousand people exposed in a major airport and scattering worldwide, I find the idea of a million casualties in a short period of time unlikely. Considering the amount of hype already attached to the issue, even a dozen cases in the U.S. would get everyone headed to the dollar store to buy filter masks and rubber gloves.
A million extra deaths worldwide in less-industrialized nations over several years… sure. That might increase the overall worldwide death rate by as much as 0.2 per thousand. Ten million deaths? An increase of 2 per thousand. That might put us back to 1970s levels. At the very extreme horrific worst; a blip. It’d suck, of course, to be one of the casualties, but human civilization as we know it would carry on.
Speculation varies widely.
On the one extreme is the possibility that this particular avian flu could reassort this season and lose none of its lethalness as it does. It would catch us still unprepared. Pretty unlikely though. Models estimate that IF this bug can reassort into a pandemic capable bug, then it would take at least 600 co-infections (individuals infected simultaneously with the avian and the human flus) until a reassortment has a 50% chance of occuring. And in most reassortment cases the bug loses some of its lethality.
On the other extreme, this bug may not be capable of successfully reassorting and we have years and years until a pandemic capable strain occurs elsewhere and it is fairly wimpy when it does. Less unlikely than the first.
The reality is likely somewhere in between. We likely have a few years and it will probably lose lethality as it reassorts.
But there is no significant excess capacity in the US hospital system. There are no huge inventories of even basic antibiotics. A significant pandemic, even one with a low fatality rate, catching us unprepared will quickly overwhelm the ability of the system to manage even routine complications. The economy would stop. Modern travel would allow it to travel faster. It would hit populations high in high risk individuals: asthmatics; diabetics; cancer patients; HIV positives; other immunosuppresseds; and many others. Our modern developed world tendency to have more allergic reactions would reasonably lead one to believe that the overexuberant reaction that led to so much mortality and morbidity in 1918 would be likely. Sorry, Sam, but we are not all that better off for our wealth. May be at grater risk even.
That said, the WHO has 3 million courses of Tamiflu at the ready to slow down an identified outbreak at a ground zero. IF we take advantage of the opportunity we have and set up the vaccine infrastructure to develop and produce and deliver an effective vaccine in large volumes on short notice, then we can sleep easy knowing that we are ready for it when it comes. That kind of preparation will pay for itself in improvements to yearly vaccines supplies anyway.
But what if the worst case happens, what if we experience the flu equivilent of an asteroid strike? Sure, I’ll play.
Society would survive anyway. It did in 1918 and it would in a speculative 2006. It would just be really ugly for a while. The major world effects would be secondary to the economic shutdowns. Much less demand for oil which would decease he importance of the ME to the rest of the world. The US would likely retreat to taking care of its own problems. New economies would arise based on where technology was developing and given the state of homegrown science education, other countries than the US would rise to pre-eminence. India springs to mind - its population reduced by the aftermath of the flu its homegrown science would have a chance to shine. China too, of course.
Why low unemployment, except for graveyard’s workers? Sure, there would be a smaller workforce, but also less consummers, hence a lower need for said workforce…
And if the pandemy was really on such a scale, there would be a high death toll in develloped countries too. The healthcare system just couldn’t cope. Where are you going to find millions of hospital beds, even in countries with the best medical care?
Hmm…once again I should have read the whole thread before posting, as mentionned in a current Pit thread…
National Geographic channel had a special on this very issue last night. They talked about the virus and laid out a patient zero situation. The nasty part about flu bugs is generally you are contagious before you notice any symptoms. Even after symptoms develop, the strain of flu can only be identified if someone goes to the hospital and they check for it. The main thing to watch for is a large number of people coming to a hospital with pneumonia caused by a severe immune system reaction.
Think of it this way. How many people do you come in relatively close contact with in any given day? If you had the flu, you’d potentially infect around 1/4 to 1/3 of them. Now think of how many people they come in contact with in a day. Keep that going in your head for a while. In a small town, something like this may be containable. In a crowded town, like NYC, the potential for infection is huge and the likelihood of keeping tabs on everyone that a person has been in contact with is slim.
Also, those dollar store masks are far from perfect. Particles can get past them and if they are exposed, those particles are just sitting on the mask waiting for you to take a breath.
I’m not saying that there isn’t a lot of hype surrounding this, but there are very legitimate reasons for concern. I think you need to learn more about this before you make up your mind.
Yes, and I’m sure speculating on worst-case scenarios made for a more interesting special than a mere “Well, the bad stuff could happen, but probably won’t.”
I haven’t made up my mind not to be concerned. I’ve made up my mind not to be panicked. There’s a large comfortable middle ground. For the key question of the thread: “What would be the post-flu global consequences of a major avian flu outbreak?”, my speculation is that aside from some short-term nuisances not nearly as devastating as 1918; there’d be none.
So, is the 7.5 billion that Bush is calling for enough to prepare for this?
Probably.
But you see the real facts of life are that preparing for this only leaves us prepared for this. SARS could have been a worldwide disaster, but the world was better prepared for it than the actual risk. The disease you are prepared for is never the threat you imagined, so it always seems that you are spending money without any real risk averted.
But, all the while, as we watch Avian influenza in populations around the world, there are people domesticating new species of pets and living with them. Every major disease that has endemically killed humans has come to us from domesticated animals. When Madagascar Lemur fever breaks out in Ohio, no one is going to identify it. If Australian echidna viruses make the jump in Maryland, no one in the scientific community is going to be ready to develop a vaccine. Doctors won’t recognize the symptoms, and will decide it is the nearest known disease instead.
So, you keep on doing the best you can, and beat the bugs you have a shot at beating. But, politics saved Polio, and may yet save Smallpox, and those are the only wins we can even pretend to claim against disease. So, the real fight is the fight against ignorance.
As always.
Tris
Post-pandemic consequences? Well, the real estate market would take a hit.