# What would constitute "winning" the war in Iraq? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 26, 2007, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-constitute-winning-the-war-in-iraq/401742 "2007-04-26T16:07:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2007, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-constitute-winning-the-war-in-iraq/401742/21 "2007-04-27T00:13:04Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] As long as there is a disaffected Sunni minority in Iraq (or if Iraq is partitioned), there will be some sympathy for al Qaeda among that population. [/QUOTE] As long as there is a Shi’ite majority with zero interest in coddling al Qaeda sympathizers in their midst, and as soon as we abandon the fantasy that anything resembling democracy will take root in the country, al Qaeda’s days in Iraq are numbered. I had this epiphany today while listening to Mitch McConnell bloviating about extracting the “surrender date” from the military-funding bill. “Got to stay there and fight al Qaeda no matter what the Democrats want,” he kept repeating, sticking to his idiotic talking points despite the efforts of the NPR interviewer to get him to say something, anything, of substance. And it occurred to me that the best way to fight al Qaeda in Iraq is to _get the hell out_ and let the Shi’ite government crush them. There would, needless to say, be an appalling amount of collateral damage accompanying said crushing. But the bottom line is, the only reason al Qaeda has any presence at all in Iraq is _we’re still there._ Oh, and Mitch McConnell is full of shit. I think we can agree on that as well. Yes? Good. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2007, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-constitute-winning-the-war-in-iraq/401742/22 "2007-04-27T00:14:26Z")
I’d say the definition of “winning” depends on who you ask. Groups like the oil companies, Blackwater and Haliburton no doubt consider it a massive victory; the neocons will probably consider it at least an incomplete victory if they keep their “enduring bases”. Bush would probably consider it a victory if history agrees it was the right thing to do, and blames other people for the disasterous effects, and doesn’t really care what happens in Iraq. Republican political strategist will consider it a victory if it gets Republicans elected. The Iraqis would consider it winning if our soldiers are gone or dead. And so on. [QUOTE=John Mace] 5.Use a democratic Iraq to spread democracy across the M.E. _Incomplete (more like a very long term goal)_ [/quote] Not “incomplete”; try [disasterous failure](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/25/AR2006102501893.html) > [@](#): > > DAMASCUS, Syria – Horror at the bloodshed accompanying the U.S. effort to bring democracy to Iraq has accomplished what human rights activists, analysts and others say Syrian President Bashar al-Assad had been unable to do by himself: silence public demands for democratic reforms here. > > \< Snip \> > > “Now, talking about democracy and freedom has become very difficult and sensitive,” Salam said. “The people are not believing these thoughts anymore. When the U.S. came to Iraq, it came in the name of democracy and freedom. But all we see are bodies, bodies, bodies.” The war against Iraq and it’s occupation has been a massive blow against democracy in the ME. ---
**Author:** ![Keeve](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/f07891/32.png) [@Keeve](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Keeve)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2007, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-constitute-winning-the-war-in-iraq/401742/23 "2007-04-27T00:49:19Z")
[QUOTE=samclem] You have a good idea. Unfortunately, in practice, this is nothing more than a collection of people’s opinions. [/QUOTE] Yes, it did degenerate into that, so I really can’t complain about the move. Instead, I want to publicly thank **TimeWinder, A.R. Cane, and John Mace** for their on-topic responses prior to the move. I will probably not be returning to visit. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2007, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-constitute-winning-the-war-in-iraq/401742/24 "2007-04-27T00:58:04Z")
“Winning” would be bringing about a level of security not totally dissonant with that of a nation at peace, and being in a position to know that if we were to withdraw all our forces, the Iraqi government would be both desirous of, and capable of, maintaining that state. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2007, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-constitute-winning-the-war-in-iraq/401742/25 "2007-04-27T00:59:10Z")
[QUOTE=Keeve] Yes, it did degenerate into that, so I really can’t complain about the move. Instead, I want to publicly thank **TimeWinder, A.R. Cane, and John Mace** for their on-topic responses prior to the move. I will probably not be returning to visit. [/QUOTE] No, it did not “degenerate” into that-since the definition of what this war is about has never been pinned down for any length of time, the definition of “winning” this war could be nothing _but_ a collection of opinions. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2007, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-constitute-winning-the-war-in-iraq/401742/26 "2007-04-27T01:14:06Z")
How about we settle for these goals for Iraq: 1 - sovereignty and independence 2 - a stable government 3 - a stable economy 4 - decent human rights by regional standards 5 - no mass violence 6 - not threatening the United States or other countries 7 - not a terrorist base 8 - no ethnic warfare 9 - no WMD programs 10 - not dependent on outside powers If all of this happens, it will be a great victory. ---
**Author:** ![Burton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8e7dd6/32.png) [@Burton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Burton)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2007, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-constitute-winning-the-war-in-iraq/401742/27 "2007-04-27T01:17:11Z")
Ha! one out of 10 ain’t bad. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2007, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-constitute-winning-the-war-in-iraq/401742/28 "2007-04-27T01:24:40Z")
[QUOTE=Little Nemo] How about we settle for these goals for Iraq: 1 - sovereignty and independence 2 - a stable government 3 - a stable economy 4 - decent human rights by regional standards 5 - no mass violence 6 - not threatening the United States or other countries 7 - not a terrorist base 8 - no ethnic warfare 9 - no WMD programs 10 - not dependent on outside powers If all of this happens, it will be a great victory. [/QUOTE] Why don’t we try a test drive here at home first. If it works, we could try it in Iraq-with their permission of course, considering goal #6. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2007, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-constitute-winning-the-war-in-iraq/401742/29 "2007-04-27T01:36:56Z")
[QUOTE=Little Nemo] How about we settle for these goals for Iraq: 1 - sovereignty and independence \< snip \> 6 - not threatening the United States or other countries [/QUOTE] Under the circumstances, that’s both hypocritical on our part and contradictory on the Iraqi’s part. It’s going to be a long time if ever before hurting America is no longer a goal for the Iraqis; if they are independent I fully expect them to try to harm us as much as they can, for generations at the least. And it’s hypocritical and rather whiny for us to complain about other countries threatening us at this point. You can have one or six, but I doubt you can have both. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2007, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-constitute-winning-the-war-in-iraq/401742/30 "2007-04-27T02:52:24Z")
> [@](#): > > Under the circumstances, that’s both hypocritical on our part and contradictory on the Iraqi’s part. It’s going to be a long time if ever before hurting America is no longer a goal for the Iraqis; if they are independent I fully expect them to try to harm us as much as they can, for generations at the least. And it’s hypocritical and rather whiny for us to complain about other countries threatening us at this point. If I believed that were true, I say it’s a strong argument for keeping American troops in Iraq. Sure, I might sympathize with their point of view, but I wouldn’t place their desire for revenge above our safety. But I don’t believe it’s true. We certainly aren’t threatened by Germany, Italy, or Japan. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2007, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-constitute-winning-the-war-in-iraq/401742/31 "2007-04-27T03:28:23Z")
[QUOTE=Little Nemo] But I don’t believe it’s true. We certainly aren’t threatened by Germany, Italy, or Japan. [/QUOTE] Did we attack them without provocation ? Did they try to avoid war with us ? No. Japan attacked us, Germany declared war, and Italy was an ally. They brought disaster upon themselves. The situations aren’t at all the same. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2007, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-constitute-winning-the-war-in-iraq/401742/32 "2007-04-27T13:31:24Z")
[QUOTE=Keeve] Yes, it did degenerate into that, so I really can’t complain about the move. Instead, I want to publicly thank **TimeWinder, A.R. Cane, and John Mace** for their on-topic responses prior to the move. I will probably not be returning to visit. [/QUOTE] Seems a mite odd to get all pissy over the fact that you asked a question that is not amenable to a factual answer. As you observed in your OP, **NO ONE** knows exactly what the “War On Terror” means. There is no clearly identified enemy. Nor have there ever been any clearly and consistently identified goals. Is that the answer you wanted? I offered unilateral withdrawal ASAP as the option that I believed was achievable, and that would confer upon us the greatest likely benefit (or perhaps more precisely, would not likely cost more than any alternatives.) ---
**Author:** ![Sal\_Ammoniac](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/8dc957/32.png) [@Sal\_Ammoniac](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sal_Ammoniac)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2007, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-constitute-winning-the-war-in-iraq/401742/33 "2007-04-27T16:14:43Z")
[QUOTE=Keeve] Yes, it did degenerate into that, so I really can’t complain about the move. Instead, I want to publicly thank **TimeWinder, A.R. Cane, and John Mace** for their on-topic responses prior to the move. I will probably not be returning to visit. [/QUOTE] The fact that the thread was moved _is_ the answer you were looking for. And you’d think it would behoove the people conducting this war to lay out exactly what “victory” would look like, just to stop all the guessing. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2007, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-constitute-winning-the-war-in-iraq/401742/34 "2007-04-27T16:30:09Z")
> [@](#): > > Did we attack them without provocation ? Did they try to avoid war with us ? No. Japan attacked us, Germany declared war, and Italy was an ally. They brought disaster upon themselves. The situations aren’t at all the same. I think you’re wrong. I think people are lot more likely to hold a grudge or not because of the what happens after the war rather than over how the war started. Our current good relations with the former Axis powers is due to our responsible behavior during the occupations. If we were being comparably responsible during the Iraqi occupation, we would be building a similar foundation for future good relations. The Iraqis would forgive and forget the shakey legal grounds for our taking over their country if we had done a good job afterwards. As others have said, we won the war and lost the peace. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2007, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-constitute-winning-the-war-in-iraq/401742/35 "2007-04-27T16:52:43Z")
Too bad **Keeve** isn’t coming back to the thread, because I have some information that he’d probably like. Oh well. I guess I’ll post it anyway for general consumption. On March 21, 2003, Secretary Rumsfeld laid out eight objectives for Operation Enduring Freedom. Here they are: > [@](#): > > 1. To end the regime of Saddam Hussein by striking with force on a scope and scale that makes clear to Iraqis that he and his regime are finished. > 2. To identify, isolate and eventually eliminate Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction, their delivery systems, production capabilities and distribution networks. > 3. To search for, capture, drive out terrorists who have found safe harbor in Iraq. > 4. To collect such intelligence as we can find related to terrorist networks in Iraq and beyond. > 5. To collect such intelligence as we can find related to the global network of illicit weapons of mass destruction activity. > 6. To end sanctions and to immediately deliver humanitarian relief, food and medicine to the displaced and to the many needy Iraqi citizens. > 7. To secure Iraq’s oil fields and resources, which belong to the Iraqi people, and which they will need to develop their country after decades of neglect by the Iraqi regime. > 8. To help the Iraqi people create the conditions for a rapid transition to a representative self-government that is not a threat to its neighbors and is committed to ensuring the territorial integrity of that country. (I typed out a paper that I have printed at my desk, but a news story about it is [here.](http://www.defenselink.mil/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=29253)) Obviously, things have changed. In the fall of 2005, the White House released its definition of victory in Iraq. [Read it here.](http://www.whitehouse.gov/infocus/iraq/iraq_strategy_nov2005.html#part1) It consists of: > [@](#): > > ``` > * In the short term: > o An Iraq that is making steady progress in fighting terrorists and neutralizing the insurgency, meeting political milestones; building democratic institutions; standing up robust security forces to gather intelligence, destroy terrorist networks, and maintain security; and tackling key economic reforms to lay the foundation for a sound economy. > * In the medium term: > o An Iraq that is in the lead defeating terrorists and insurgents and providing its own security, with a constitutional, elected government in place, providing an inspiring example to reformers in the region, and well on its way to achieving its economic potential. > * In the longer term: > o An Iraq that has defeated the terrorists and neutralized the insurgency. > o An Iraq that is peaceful, united, stable, democratic, and secure, where Iraqis have the institutions and resources they need to govern themselves justly and provide security for their country. > o An Iraq that is a partner in the global war on terror and the fight against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, integrated into the international community, an engine for regional economic growth, and proving the fruits of democratic governance to the region. > > ``` The link goes into more detail that I won’t bother reprinting. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2007, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-constitute-winning-the-war-in-iraq/401742/36 "2007-04-27T17:18:47Z")
[QUOTE=Little Nemo] Our current good relations with the former Axis powers is due to our responsible behavior during the occupations. [/QUOTE] [Well, sort of](http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/04/25/comfort.women.ap/index.html?section=cnn_latest). ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2007, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-constitute-winning-the-war-in-iraq/401742/37 "2007-04-27T18:19:18Z")
[QUOTE=Cervaise] As long as there is a Shi’ite majority with zero interest in coddling al Qaeda sympathizers in their midst, and as soon as we abandon the fantasy that anything resembling democracy will take root in the country, al Qaeda’s days in Iraq are numbered. [/quote] The operative phrase being “in their midst”. I understand your thinking here, but don’t be so sure that a Shi’a majority can exercise its control over all of Iraq. > [@](#): > > But the bottom line is, the only reason al Qaeda has any presence at all in Iraq is _we’re still there._ Not quite. The reason they got a foothold in Iraq is because we were there, but it’s pretty naive to think that they are going to give up when we leave. If anything, they will have even more sympathizers once we get out, as I suspect the Shi’a majority will exert its will over the Sunni minority in ways that they can’t while we’re there. ---
**Author:** ![Keeve](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/f07891/32.png) [@Keeve](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Keeve)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2007, 4:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-constitute-winning-the-war-in-iraq/401742/38 "2007-04-29T04:17:42Z")
[QUOTE=Dinsdale] Seems a mite odd to get all pissy over the fact that you asked a question that is not amenable to a factual answer. As you observed in your OP, **NO ONE** knows exactly what the “War On Terror” means. There is no clearly identified enemy. Nor have there ever been any clearly and consistently identified goals. [/QUOTE] Well, as it turns out, this question **is** amenable to a factual answer, and it is **not** the answer you thought it was! NYAH, NYAH! My observation in the OP was that I don’t know exactly what the “War On Terror” means, not that no one does. (Look it up!) I was hoping that someone might have defined it at some point, and it turns out that someone did do exactly that. Many sincere thanks to **Ravenman** for posting Secretary Rumsfeld’s eight objectives (in post #35). ---
**Author:** ![scotandrsn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a4c791/32.png) [@scotandrsn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scotandrsn)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2007, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-constitute-winning-the-war-in-iraq/401742/39 "2007-04-29T04:19:04Z")
[QUOTE=Donald Rumsfeld through Ravenman] …To secure Iraq’s oil fields and resources, which belong to the Iraqi people, and which they will need to develop their country after decades of neglect by the Iraqi regime… [/QUOTE] Other than the laughable notion that the Bush administration ever thought Iraq’s oil belonged to the Iraqi’s (apart from Bremer paying lip-service to the notion by only privatizing every single part of Iraq’s oil industry except “primary extraction and initial processing”), this particular line item smacks to me of [post-saudi-peak-oil](http://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/35317794.shtml) desperation. Even the most obstinate conservative is beginning to realize that Saudi oil is very near its end, and so we make up the idea that Iraq’s reserves are criminally underdeveloped so that we don’t have to face the reality of decline. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2007, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-constitute-winning-the-war-in-iraq/401742/40 "2007-04-29T05:37:33Z")
> [@](#): > > Not quite. The reason they got a foothold in Iraq is because we were there, but it’s pretty naive to think that they are going to give up when we leave. If anything, they will have even more sympathizers once we get out, as I suspect the Shi’a majority will exert its will over the Sunni minority in ways that they can’t while we’re there. Actually, I’ve read there’s a falling out between them. The Iraqi insurgents want to focus on driving the Americans out of Iraq and taking over Iraq. The Al Qaeda forces in Iraq see these as only part of their goals and are looking for a broader agenda. Al Qaeda recently attempted to bring all insurgents under a unified command that was Al Qaeda controlled - some of the largest Iraqi groups refused to join. So Al Qaeda killed several dozen of the Iraqi insurgents. Relations since then have been somewhat strained. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-constitute-winning-the-war-in-iraq/401742.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-constitute-winning-the-war-in-iraq/401742.md?page=3)