I don’t think Republicans in Congress would lift a finger to stop him. Susan Collins would threaten to waver but in the end toe the party line like she always does. About 25% of the public would say something like: “Well, what about Hillary? Something something emails! Hillary lied, people died, Benghazi!”
I’d like to lay my hopes in the military, but what exactly would they do?
This. What ultimately holds democracy together is not a piece of paper but a collective morality, which I see dangerously dwindling under unprecedented new norms emerging under this presidency. I agree that the OP’s scenario is very unlikely, but it’s not impossible and snarky declarations of such are naive.
In the words of Holocaust survivor and educator Max Eisen, who testified in 2015 at the trial that convicted former SS officer Oskar Groening: “After listening to Oskar Groening and observing his demeanour at the trial, I have a great deal of concern for humanity should a supremacist ideology take hold again. It will be a threat to our way of life and our freedom.”
The military would not need to do anything. They’re not exactly filled with respect for him personally and would not put their necks on the line for Donald Trump. Their loyalty isn’t to him peronally, but to the office… but if Trump suspends the Consitution, then he’s voided the office itself.
One point - the articles of impeachment would pass the House 435-0, and the vote to convict and remove from office would pass the Senate 100-0. And this will be true, no matter which party the President who tried this belongs to, or which party controls Congress.
No Republican would go along with Trump if he tried it, and no Democrat would go along with a Democratic, or democratic socialist, or whatever the fuck it might be, President who tried it.
Blah blah, the other side puts party before country. Fuck that noise. This is America.
Maybe if he woke up one day and tried to do it. But I suspect it would be the result of some “emergency.” Given how most Republicans have swallowed his current fake emergency, I doubt 100% of Republicans would vote to impeach.
I’m not worried because the military swears an oath to the Constitution, not the President, so they would not do anything he says. Especially since the generals don’t seem to hold this draft dodger in high regard.
That is is what I EXPECT to happen, and if you’d asked me four years ago, I would say that is what WOULD happen. However the story of the intervening years is one of very rational expectations about what will happen when a corrupt authoritarian bigot with blatantly unconstitutional aspirations tries to become president and do unconstitutional things, being COMPLETELY wrong. And the most spectacularly wrong of those expectations were ones that involved the GOP standing up for the constitution against Trump and putting country before party.
So yeah I’m going to say Trump PROBABLY couldn’t get away the kind of thing described in the OP, but no more
Perhaps you didn’t see the Cohen hearing. Or the Ford/Kavanaugh hearing. I wish I could believe your claim, I really do. But right now I believe that too many (not all) Republicans are capable of anything that serves their base, no matter how immoral or disconnected from reality. I can easily see them saying, “yes, suspending the Constitution is serious, but we are in extraordinary times, with extraordinary threats from X” – where “X” might be Mexicans, or Muslims, or maybe, in the spirit of repeating history, Jews – although today I think it’s fair to say that Mexicans and Muslims are the new Jews. There would naturally be bumper-sticker slogans on the general theme that the Constitution still applies to real people, just not to undeserving scum. Authoritarianism and supremacist ideologies are always the same in broad principle.
The opposition to Trump has officially reached the level of insanity. It is unfathomable that Trump would even do this, but as Shodan said, he or any other president would be impeached and removed from office immediately. Any belief otherwise is simply an absurd reaction to a president that you dislike.
And yes, in my lifetime, I have heard that Clinton, Bush II, Obama, and now Trump were all contemplating doing this.
Sure it was said about past presidents, but ALL past presidents, even Nixon, were patriotic men who respected the Constitution and the rule of law. Now we have a usurper whose only interests are staying out of prison and lining his pockets.
The other thing we have now is about 30% of the population belongs to the Cult of Herr Donald and believe he is completely infallible and any opposition to any word he says is treason punishable by death. These 30% have absolute control over the Republican Party, every Republican knows that you either toe the line or you get primaried out of office. So yes, I fully expect every Republican to vote no on impeachment and conviction no matter what. If you think Louie Gohmert would ever cross his idol, I think you’re mistaken. Ditto for every single Republican.
He would get impeached by Monday afternoon and convicted in time for lunch on Tuesday, BUT, alas, Shodan, I have been near some of the current crop of would-be Solons, and you would NOT get unanimity. There are some real winnahs in there, man.
There’s not a single military oath. The oath for enlisted includes " I will obey the orders of the President of the United States and the orders of the officers appointed over me…" For National Guard Officers there’s mention of obeying the orders of the President and Governor. For officers not in the National Guard the oath doesn’t mention the President or even explicitly mention following orders. For the seven members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff only the Chief of National Guard Bureau swore an oath that includes obeying the President.
The Joint Chiefs aren’t even the major audience Trump would need to convince They are staff not commanders. They advise National Command Authority and exercise administrative control over the military. They do not have operational control over units. They can’t lawfully issue orders to do something like suppress an insurrection. That’s just not their job.
Really unfathomable? It is unfathomable that a politician who from the outset has said he’s going to do blatantly unconstitutional things (be it introduce an religious test for immigrants, rewrite the 1st amendment, abolish the 14th amendment by executive order, or override congress’s right to control the budget by declaring a fake emergency) would do something unconstitutional?
Not that Trump doing something like that described in the OP is that likely (not least because he shows zero interest in actually being president), but if he did it would just be another blatantly unconstitutional act by a president who has shown quite explicitly, by words and actions, they don’t mind doing unconstitutional things and have zero respect for the constitution.
Likewise that the legislative branch of the GOP would automatically push back against Trump suspending the constitution. I mean sure, I would hope they would, but given the fact they can’t currently find 4 GOP senators willing to say “no, the president can’t overrule the congress and ignore article one of the constitution” (let alone enough to override his veto, and actually stop him ignoring article one of the constitution). I’m not going to bet my life on it.
This is also why I wanted Mueller to subpoena Trump. Trump would have refused, it woulda wound up in the Supreme Court, Trump would lose there, and then we coulda had the showdown.