# What would happen if we gave Iran nuclear weapons? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 24, 2012, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-happen-if-we-gave-iran-nuclear-weapons/610504 "2012-01-24T15:37:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-happen-if-we-gave-iran-nuclear-weapons/610504/41 "2012-01-25T17:11:43Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > I don’t want a war with Iran, it would be a horrible thing. Nah, we’d kick their ass. We’re getting pretty good at fighting countries who’s names start with vowels. > [@clairobscur](#): > > Yes, I sincerely believe that. What makes you think they would launch a nuclear attack against Israel? **What would be the point**? What’s the point in sponsoring Hizbullah? ---
**Author:** ![Sailboat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sailboat/32/461_2.png) [@Sailboat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sailboat)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-happen-if-we-gave-iran-nuclear-weapons/610504/42 "2012-01-25T17:39:36Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Each of those Empires had constant war and internal strife, something endemic to the Middle east. For example the Parthian Empire per wiki “The earliest enemies of the Parthians were the Seleucids in the west and the Scythians in the east. However, as Parthia expanded westward, they came into conflict with the Kingdom of Armenia, and eventually the late Roman Republic. Rome and Parthia competed with each other to establish the kings of Armenia as their subordinate clients. The Parthians soundly defeated Marcus Licinius Crassus at the Battle of Carrhae in 53 BC, and in 40–39 BC, Parthian forces captured the whole of the Levant, excepting Tyre, from the Romans. However, Mark Antony led a counterattack against Parthia and several Roman emperors invaded Mesopotamia during the Roman-Parthian Wars. The Romans captured the cities of Seleucia and Ctesiphon on multiple occasions during these conflicts, but were never able to hold onto them. Frequent civil war between Parthian contenders to the throne proved more dangerous than foreign invasion, and Parthian power evaporated when Ardashir I, ruler of Estakhr in Fars, revolted against the Arsacids and killed their last ruler, Artabanus IV, in 224 AD.” > > I could go on. “The Middle East” (meaning Palestine and surrounding areas) has seen a whirlwind of particularly savage fighting, uprisings, terror, and political conflict since…let’s see… about the start of recorded history. Uh…My point was that the US and Europe haven’t had noticeably more protracted periods of “stability” or peace – especially if we consider the contemporaneous time period. How was Europe in, say, 651 AD? And Parthain power “evaporated”…after lasting twice as long as the US has, so far. Your comment about Rome and Parthia competing through client states sounds a lot like what superpowers do even today. One could argue that the Roman period of peace was distinct – but that was an anomaly, really, and it’s not like Rome was a good neighbor to have generally. As John Keegan wrote in _A History of Warfare_: > [@](#): > > Roman imperialism was in large part the result of quite rational behaviour on the part of the Romans, but it also had dark and irrational roots. One of the most striking features of Roman warfare is its regularity – almost every year [for century after century] the Romans went out and did massive violence to someone – and this regularity gives the phenomenon a pathological character. And that’s the state that is regarded as the longest-lasting Western empire, presumably what you’d call stable. I think the Middle East does look as if it has been unusually “unstable” for 5,000 years only if you have blinders on about the rest of world history. > [@xtisme](#): > > …Iran would look GOOD to a lot of folks in the region if it was able to deal with the Israel ‘problem’ permanently). While I agree that triumph over Israel would lead to Iranian hegemony in the region (and have internal political payoffs as well), I’m less sure that _nuking_ it solves the ‘Israel problem.’ Would it be fair to summarize the _foundational_ ‘problem’ the Arab neighbors have with Israel as: “the Israelis have displaced the Palestinians from their [perceived] homeland?” I’m not sure reducing the said beloved homeland to uninhabitable, radioactive slag necessarily results in the Palestinians getting everything they want. edited to add: Of course, the Iranians don’t necessarily have the Palestinians’ best interest at heart, and might do it for their own reasons. But that’s not really solving the root problem, it’s more like using the unhappiness of the Palestinians as an excuse to do your own thing. ---
**Author:** ![IntelliQ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e99b99/32.png) [@IntelliQ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/IntelliQ)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-happen-if-we-gave-iran-nuclear-weapons/610504/43 "2012-01-25T17:52:21Z")
At the very least you give Iran huge amounts of leverage. First thing they would do is start bulldozing protesters, ramp up inhumane policies, and anything the world finds repulsively extreme their leaders will run with full steam ahead. Then you have an Iran foreign policy agenda becoming even more abrasive, aggressive, and teetering on real full scale war with other cultures. That’s just the bright side of it. ---
**Author:** ![erislover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/71e660/32.png) [@erislover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/erislover)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-happen-if-we-gave-iran-nuclear-weapons/610504/44 "2012-01-25T17:55:26Z")
> [@IntelliQ](#): > > At the very least you give Iran huge amounts of leverage. First thing they would do is start bulldozing protesters, ramp up inhumane policies, and anything the world finds repulsively extreme their leaders will run with full steam ahead. The crazy thing is not Iran’s leaders. It’s that Iran was on the verge of being a shining democracy before America’s further bullying in the region ramped anti-Western sentiment in the population. I remember secular politicians staging sit-ins and such. As usual, if you’re not a failed state, the US will do its damnedest to make you one, then bomb the shit out of you for it. ---
**Author:** ![Sailboat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sailboat/32/461_2.png) [@Sailboat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sailboat)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-happen-if-we-gave-iran-nuclear-weapons/610504/45 "2012-01-25T17:59:34Z")
Sorry, another clarification occurred to me. I was showing that Iran/Persia has had multiple, prolonged periods of what passed for stable government in the rest of the world. **DrDeth** seems to be defining the Middle East as a whole as unstable. If Iran itself has a tradition of stable government, but is wielding influence in the “region,” particularly in this case the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, for its own reasons, is that _objectively_ worse than the United States wielding influence in the same “region” for its own purposes? I am not defending Iran’s alleged motivations _per se_, just continuing my line of thought that Westerners have been overusing claims of “instability” to shape perceptions about countries in that area. Especially when applied to the scale of “all of written history,” it seems absurd on the face of it to claim Iran has been unstable _compared to the US/Europe_, and if the claim is that Iran is meddling outside its area, surely the same applies to the US/Europe. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-happen-if-we-gave-iran-nuclear-weapons/610504/46 "2012-01-25T19:06:54Z")
> [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > [QUOTE=clairobscur] > Yes, I sincerely believe that. What makes you think they would launch a nuclear attack against Israel? What would be the point? What’s the point in sponsoring Hizbullah? [/QUOTE] Harassing Israel at minimal risk and expense to themselves; as opposed to being destroyed which is what would happen if they nuked Israel. ---
**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-happen-if-we-gave-iran-nuclear-weapons/610504/47 "2012-01-25T19:23:51Z")
> [@etv78](#): > > I AM familiar w/MAD. I just firmly believe Amadenajidad would pull the trigger 1st. For what possible reason? He’s perfectly aware that an Iranian nuclear attack on Israel would result in the most populated areas of Iran being glassed. Do you think he has some insane death wish for his country? Stalin and Mao both had no compunctions about killing millions of their own countrymen, had nuclear weapons, and didn’t decide to end their countries entire existence by using them. Why would Iran possibly push the button the second the get a bomb knowing full well it would be signing a death sentence for their entire country? Not ‘pull the trigger first,’ your claim was ‘Do you guys sincerely believe they wouldn’t fire them into Israel **as soon as they have them**?’ I would submit that you do not in fact understand MAD. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-happen-if-we-gave-iran-nuclear-weapons/610504/48 "2012-01-25T20:21:38Z")
What is Israel’s nuclear arsenal estimated to be in terms of numbers of warheads? ---
**Author:** ![AndyLee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/898d66/32.png) [@AndyLee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AndyLee)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-happen-if-we-gave-iran-nuclear-weapons/610504/49 "2012-01-25T20:26:02Z")
The real thing is IF the OP scenerio was correct, the result would be, “You have nukes to Iran? How 'bout giving some to us.” The us being the Saudis, the Omanis, the Egyptians, the Kurds, The Kuwaitis and so forth. And if we didn’t give them away the oil rich countries are in a position to highly pay scientists to develop them for them. This was the logic of keeping North Korea from getting nukes as it was said, then Japan and South Korea (and maybe Taiwan) wouild go nuclear. Of course going nuclear would be problematic in Japan but they certainly have the know-how to do so. (I’m not sure about Taiwan and South Korea) ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-happen-if-we-gave-iran-nuclear-weapons/610504/50 "2012-01-25T20:31:51Z")
[QUOTE=FoieGrasIsEvil] What is Israel’s nuclear arsenal estimated to be in terms of numbers of warheads? [/QUOTE] Since they have denied having the things, and since no one that I know of has gone out of their way to out them publicly, it’s anyone’s guess (I’m sure the US and other intelligence agencies know or have a good guess, but they aren’t saying, again afaik). I’ve heard 10 to 20, but it could be none or double that I suppose. My WAG is that they have a few (maybe 5 or something in that ball park), but they are playing it very close to the vest. It could all be a Saddam level bluff, and they really don’t have any of the things at all and just want folks to assume they do. -XT ---
**Author:** ![etv78](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d78d45/32.png) [@etv78](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/etv78)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-happen-if-we-gave-iran-nuclear-weapons/610504/51 "2012-01-25T20:53:13Z")
> [@Dissonance](#): > > For what possible reason? He’s perfectly aware that an Iranian nuclear attack on Israel would result in the most populated areas of Iran being glassed. Do you think he has some insane death wish for his country? Stalin and Mao both had no compunctions about killing millions of their own countrymen, had nuclear weapons, and didn’t decide to end their countries entire existence by using them. Why would Iran possibly push the button the second the get a bomb knowing full well it would be signing a death sentence for their entire country? Not ‘pull the trigger first,’ your claim was ‘Do you guys sincerely believe they wouldn’t fire them into Israel **as soon as they have them**?’ I would submit that you do not in fact understand MAD. You may have a more nuanced view of MAD, but yes I DO think he has a death wish. BTW, as long as Israel is gone too, I doubt he’s too worried about Iran’s fate. ---
**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-happen-if-we-gave-iran-nuclear-weapons/610504/52 "2012-01-25T23:25:25Z")
> [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > What is Israel’s nuclear arsenal estimated to be in terms of numbers of warheads? Best guess is ~200 warheads. [Federation of American Scientists](http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/nuke/) gives a range of 70-400, [Global Research](http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?aid=4365&context=va) a range of 200-500, [Global Security](http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/israel/nuke-stockpile.htm) 125-250 warheads. **etv78** : There is nothing nuanced about MAD. A nuclear attack upon Israel by Iran would result in Iran’s destruction. It wouldn’t even be mutual if carried out as you visualize it, attacking as soon as they have the bomb may have a nice Lex Luthor evil supervillain ring to it, but it would take more than one or two bombs to destroy Israel, much less be assured of it. ---
**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-happen-if-we-gave-iran-nuclear-weapons/610504/53 "2012-01-25T23:44:29Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > Since they have denied having the things, and since no one that I know of has gone out of their way to out them publicly, it’s anyone’s guess (I’m sure the US and other intelligence agencies know or have a good guess, but they aren’t saying, again afaik). Missed the edit - Israel has never denied having nuclear weapons, they just have never officially acknowledged that they possess them. Israel is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and the evidence of their existence is [voluminous](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel) , uncontrovertial and not seriously contested ala Saddam’s WMDs. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-happen-if-we-gave-iran-nuclear-weapons/610504/54 "2012-01-25T23:45:04Z")
> [@Dissonance](#): > > Best guess is ~200 warheads. [Federation of American Scientists](http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/nuke/) gives a range of 70-400, [Global Research](http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?aid=4365&context=va) a range of 200-500, [Global Security](http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/israel/nuke-stockpile.htm) 125-250 warheads. > > **etv78** : There is nothing nuanced about MAD. A nuclear attack upon Israel by Iran would result in Iran’s destruction. It wouldn’t even be mutual if carried out as you visualize it, attacking as soon as they have the bomb may have a nice Lex Luthor evil supervillain ring to it, but it would take more than one or two bombs to destroy Israel, much less be assured of it. I wonder if in such a (ahem) MAD scenario whereby Iran nukes Israel, Israel and/or the US responds in kind if any other countries (like say, Russia) would get involved. Would the mainland US be at risk? ---
**Author:** ![etv78](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d78d45/32.png) [@etv78](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/etv78)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-happen-if-we-gave-iran-nuclear-weapons/610504/55 "2012-01-25T23:45:28Z")
> [@Dissonance](#): > > Best guess is ~200 warheads. [Federation of American Scientists](http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/nuke/) gives a range of 70-400, [Global Research](http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?aid=4365&context=va) a range of 200-500, [Global Security](http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/israel/nuke-stockpile.htm) 125-250 warheads. > > **etv78** : There is nothing nuanced about MAD. A nuclear attack upon Israel by Iran would result in Iran’s destruction. It wouldn’t even be mutual if carried out as you visualize it, attacking as soon as they have the bomb may have a nice Lex Luthor evil supervillain ring to it, but it would take more than one or two bombs to destroy Israel, much less be assured of it. You’re right, I did misapply MAD in this scenario, BUT I still contend Iran would be willing to take itself down if Israel came with them. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-happen-if-we-gave-iran-nuclear-weapons/610504/56 "2012-01-25T23:48:03Z")
[QUOTE=Dissonance] Missed the edit - Israel has never denied having nuclear weapons, they just have never officially acknowledged that they possess them. Israel is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and the evidence of their existence is voluminous , uncontrovertial and not seriously contested ala Saddam’s WMDs. [/QUOTE] You are right…afaik they have never denied that they have them. However, all of the ‘evidence’ is circumstantial. They haven’t, for instance, detonated a test nuke, which would be important for a nuclear weapons program, even if they stole the design from us. As I said, I BELIEVE that they have them, though my WAG is that they have only a few…but to say something is ‘uncontrovertial’ is, IMHO, vastly overstating things. If there is evidence that they have actually detonated one for testing, THEN I’d say that ‘uncontrovertial’ is appropriate. Otherwise, it’s still conjecture. YMMV of course. -XT ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2012, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-happen-if-we-gave-iran-nuclear-weapons/610504/57 "2012-01-26T00:31:33Z")
It’s actually somewhat likely, although not certain, that the joint South Africa-Israel nuclear cooperation saw at least one nuclear test. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2012, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-happen-if-we-gave-iran-nuclear-weapons/610504/58 "2012-01-26T00:36:38Z")
I’d heard of that, but I honestly didn’t think it got much above the urban legend level of confirmation. Seems like it would be a hard thing to hide though. -XT ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2012, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-happen-if-we-gave-iran-nuclear-weapons/610504/59 "2012-01-26T00:40:31Z")
It’s well above the status of an urban legend, but not proven. [ > [@](#): > > Most of the experts in the American intelligence community (and others outside) thought at that time the signals detected by the satellite had pointed to a nuclear test. However, there was also a possibility of a “false alarm” due to a fault in the satellite’s detection system. > > To ascertain the facts, a secret committee was set up under then U.S. president Jimmy Carter. The committee, headed by Prof. Jack Ruina of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, failed to reach a decisive conclusion. > > Most of the committee’s members assumed that South African navy vessels had sailed out of Simonstown port, near Cape Town, to a secret location in the Indian Ocean, where they conducted the nuclear test. The committee defined the nuclear facility tested as compact and, in an impressive way, especially clean, emitting little radioactive fallout. That is why it was so difficult to pinpoint the test. Another assessment concluded a cannon had fired a nuclear shell. In other words, the test focused on a tactical nuclear weapon. > > The experts believed the test was carried out at sea because there was no better alternative. Some two years earlier a Soviet spy satellite, Cosmos, detected underground tunnels at the South African Vastrap nuclear test site in the Kalahari Desert. That indicated preparations for a nuclear test or a series of tests. The Soviets relayed the information to the Carter administration, which applied heavy pressure on the government of John Vorster to stop work at the site. > > Most of the examination team assumed there had been a joint Israeli-South African test. Another intelligence assessment said it was solely an Israeli test. A third assessment, published at the time, said that even if it was not a joint test, scientists of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission and of the nuclear reactor in Dimona, had been aboard one of the escort ships during the test and examined the results. ]([Did Israel Play a Role in 1979 South Africa Nuclear Test? - Israel News - Haaretz.com](http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/features/did-israel-play-a-role-in-1979-south-africa-nuclear-test-1.281226)) ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2012, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-happen-if-we-gave-iran-nuclear-weapons/610504/60 "2012-01-26T00:43:33Z")
Appreciate the cite, Finn. I remember reading about this years ago, but I thought it was mostly a CT or something along those lines. -XT [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-happen-if-we-gave-iran-nuclear-weapons/610504.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-happen-if-we-gave-iran-nuclear-weapons/610504.md?page=4)