Well, using standard M115 howitzer ammo as the ammo in question it depends on what kind, it also requires making some assumptions.
First the assumptions.
Terrorist has replaced the standard detonator with a modified one.
And there are 2 types, impact and timed.
For best results you probably want timed to get an arial detonation.
Normally as mention the detonators are in 2 stages.
BOOM, big boost in G forces triggers step one, and unlocks the counter.
The round spins due to the rifled barrel.
Step two counts the rotations, detonator does not arm until the spin count has been reached.
So you need to modify the detonator to already be armed, and have a way to trigger the timer as you are shoving it out of the plane.
Why not just use the impact detonator?
Inefficient unless you are hitting a hardened structure or something, and good damned luck getting a non spinning round to go nose down.
So your little bastard does the math, sets the timer to arial detonate, activates timer and dumps it overboard.
Ok so when it gets X feet from the ground, Yes it is guaranteed to go boom.
But what happens afterwards?
Well what round type was it?
W79 mod0?
Well hell son, you just detonated a 1Kt nuke (at max yield)
NUKEMAP by Alex Wellerstein go see what it did.
W33?
Well depending on what core it was loaded with, you could have just set off a 40Kt detonation.
Are we having fun or what?
M426?
Did you load it with Sarin? VX?
That could make for a real unhappy time in the city block you dropped it over, maybe more depending on how the wind blows i guess?
M106?
HE Shell 200 lb
So you just effectively dropped a 200 pound bomb in a casing capable of penetrating 9 feet into concrete.
Big boom, lots of nasty heavy shrapnel, it’s going to hurt.
M404 ICM?
Its an 8 inch casing filled with basically a bunch of hand grenades that spread out all over.
This will ruin a busy evening in times square in short order.
M509 ICM?
Steel rain
Unless we are simply looking to take out vehicles or armor units, probably not the top choice
You chose what you want for which target for SCENARIO 1, or just nuke it all.
for SCENARIO 2 it does not much matter what you pick or do
a 200+ pound shell, especially a M106, dropped from 1km is going to simply smash its way through the roof of the APC, it wont need to detonate.
If you can drop it nose down, it just might be found embedded in the pavement below it later.
From 1km we could simply be dropping 16 pound old fashioned solid cannon balls on the poor APC
