And that is another good point. My guess would be ‘no’…not a chance they could afford this stupid expedition WE are stuck in even today, let alone years ago when we did it. Look what it’s cost us…and multiply that several fold for China to do the same thing (both in terms of men, material and money).
-XT
It is breaking us. We can not afford it either.
As usual for China to go into Iraq it would have to be done with massive numbers of troops. Pouring a couple million soldiers in ,assuming Iraq was as helpless for them as it was for us, they could have taken it over. Then they could have financially ruined themselves keeping it.
I suspect that if China had lead a coalition into Iraq, there would finally be enough US soldiers there to manage the insurgency and orchestrate the creation of a US-friendly puppet government.
Leaving aside the financial part, China has no way to GET millions or even hundreds of thousands of troops over there. They simply don’t have the logistics capabilities to do so.
-XT
Would it be as expensive for China to run this war as it is for us? We’re tied down by a massive logistical nightmare in running expensive equipment that China doesn’t have and paying benefits to soldiers (and veterans!) that China wouldn’t pay. Not to mention the total lack of nation-building that a no-frills approach would need.
Much more IMHO. They would have had to send more of everything to do the same job that we did. And frankly they don’t have anything to send it WITH…so they would have to build that stuff from scratch. They don’t have any troop or equipment forward deployed in the region like we did (in Saudi and Kuwait) so they would have had to bring everything they would need for a forced entry assault. Their equipment and their soldiers are less capable than ours our so they would need to bring far more of each. All of that costs more…and all of that leaves aside things like realistically who WOULD let the Chinese stage up such a massive army in their back yard? Why would the US allow the Chinese to move that kind of military force into a region that is strategically vital to us as well?
They Chinese pay their soldiers. And they still have to feed and arm them even if they were free. And the costs to do that is pretty constant.
Like I said earlier, we did it and made it look (relatively) easy. That doesn’t mean anyone could do it. We had several advantages. First off we had a lot of equipment and troops forward deployed into the region (one of the reasons Osama was pissed at us). We also have the benefit of a massive logistics system capable of moving that kind of force anywhere in the world. As you pointed out OUR logistics system is straining…imagine for a moment what China’s would be like when they don’t even have that level of capability today! For China to deploy it’s millions of soldiers they need to have an enemy in their own back yard…even then it’s tough to do unless you want those soldiers to starve and throw rocks at the enemy (or pick up the weapons of the dead a la the Korean war).
Assuming they just wanted the oil and didn’t want to build a nation I still think their costs would be greater and here is why (just speculation at this point). My guess is they wouldn’t have been able to use the surgical methods we used but instead have to rely on the bigger hammer method. That means a lot more damage to the infrastructure than we did…especially the road infrastructure. In addition, the Iraqi oil industry was already in bad shape when we finally took over management. That is a sunk cost…China would have to pay it as we did if they were there to get only the oil. The infrastructure to would have to be repaired and replaced if they wanted that oil. I can’t imagine the Iraqi’s or groups like AQ being any more pleased that China was there as opposed to us either (less so in fact would be my guess), so you would still get the wonderful insurgency we have been experiencing for the last 4+ years as well. Since China would need to do the bigger hammer thingy I imagine they wouldn’t have the support of ANY of the Iraqi factions…so even in the north they would have a fight on their hands with the Kurds. The Sunni and Shi’a might set aside their differences as well to make China’s life misery since China wouldn’t be attempting to build a nation, simply loot.
-XT
China’s military capabilities are always massively overestimated by most people.
Sometimes I’ll hear from a particularly ignorant person: “China could invade the US if they wanted to!” “Uh… how?” “Well they have a billion people! They have an army of tens of millions!” “Do they also have star trek transporter technology?”
People also underappreciate the US’ military capabilities. We made invading Iraq look easy because we’re REALLY FUCKING GOOD.
xtisme does not exaggerate when he/she says that China can’t invade Taiwan. Even without US intervention, China simply does not have the sealift, amphibious assault, or air power required. If China can’t invade a tiny country right off their own coast, how are they invading major powers across the world?
Against an invading army they could’ve potentially defeated, the Iraqi military would’ve tried harder. And they weren’t a pathetic military - they could defeat an invasion by almost any country in the world - it’s just that the US completely slaughtered them.
Even if you gave China a reasonable amount of sealift capability, say, on par with Great Britain, there’s no way they’re going to successfully invade Iraq, and they’re nowhere near that point in reality.
I know that the OP didn’t really mean to evaluate the technical chances of this happening, though. But your OP might’ve been better phrased “How would we be faring in Iraq if we were willing to be ruthless bastards?” I guess I just wanted to rant a bit about the complete ignorance in popular culture about the military capabilities of China.
I highly doubt China would allow this to happen. They are wily enough to foment factional warfare, especially when it is so cheap to do so.
If you carpet bomb cities it’s kind of hard to hit only one faction or the other. You end up hitting everyone…and subsequently pissing everyone off. They Chinese don’t have the ability to bomb with any where near the precision the US can…and so, there would have been a LOT more collateral casualties. Which would have made even more people pissed off.
I think the Chinese are wily enough to have never set foot in Iraq, knowing they would fail.
-XT