# What would realistically / actually happen if Trump invaded Canada and / or Greenland, Mexico, Panama, etc? **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 13, 2025, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-realistically-actually-happen-if-trump-invaded-canada-and-or-greenland-mexico-panama-etc/1012898 "2025-01-13T03:27:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2025, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-realistically-actually-happen-if-trump-invaded-canada-and-or-greenland-mexico-panama-etc/1012898/61 "2025-01-13T17:52:36Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > When one superpower starts acting aggressively, other countries seek alliances to protect themselves. Look at how Finland and Sweden joined NATO after Russia invaded Ukraine. > > The same would happen if America invades Canada or Mexico or Greenland or Panama. Other countries would seek alliances with Russia or China. > > It was probably Putin who suggested all this nonsense to Trump. When America acts stupid, Russia benefits. Except the US would still be massively more powerful than Russia. Russia would end up in a position similar to what France or the UK were in during Cold War I. They would be forced to join the US side of the alliance, but there’s not a chance in hell they would be the top dog. Their other option would be to try to eke out an existence as third power in a US vs China Cold War II, but they’d likely be even worse off in that scenario than they would be as the junior partner to the US. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2025, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-realistically-actually-happen-if-trump-invaded-canada-and-or-greenland-mexico-panama-etc/1012898/62 "2025-01-13T17:57:39Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > Cold War I was a battle of Lawful Good vs. Lawful Evil. This is a myth the West likes to tell itself. The Third World had a very different view on the whole thing. Y’all were CN at best. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2025, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-realistically-actually-happen-if-trump-invaded-canada-and-or-greenland-mexico-panama-etc/1012898/63 "2025-01-13T18:42:07Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > Why didn’t that work in Afghanistan? They have multiple land borders, and a long, long history of opium smuggling. the US can’t even stop drugs from coming across their own border with Mexico. But a naval blockade is a much easier thing. You can’t really hide a massive cargo ship in the middle of the ocean. We could probably slip in a few submarines, but their cargo capacity would be a mere trickle compared to what we’d need. > [@](#): > > Surely Russia or China could send supplies over the north pole and I’d think they’d be happy to do it. Even if they could make it through the blockade, where would they land? We don’t have a lot of deep water ports connected to robust road or rail systems along the northern coast. Any shipping would have to make port in Vancouver or Halifax, which would be very easy to blockade. > [@](#): > > What if the UK and/or EU supplied Canada. Would the US start sinking their ships? Well, the notion here was, they already invaded Canada despite the presence of UK or EU troops, so the “Will they shoot?” question has already been answered. Canada would be surrounded by the world’s largest Navy, which is carrying the second largest air force, so we’re pretty much fucked. ---
**Author:** ![scudsucker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scudsucker/32/14101_2.png) [@scudsucker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scudsucker)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2025, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-realistically-actually-happen-if-trump-invaded-canada-and-or-greenland-mexico-panama-etc/1012898/64 "2025-01-13T18:58:24Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > This is a myth the West likes to tell itself Ja, exactly. Try tell my home country, Zimbabwe that the cold war was a really good thing. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2025, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-realistically-actually-happen-if-trump-invaded-canada-and-or-greenland-mexico-panama-etc/1012898/65 "2025-01-13T18:58:46Z")
> [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](#): > > Any invasion of Canada would be a _massive_ logistical undertaking, moving tens of thousands of troops and thousands of vehicles/weapons toward the Canadian Border. Even limited to the most populated areas (Quebec/Montreal/Ottawa/Toronto), that would still mean moving a lot of stuff to a 200+ mile front, and remember, a large number of our troops are based in the South and West. It would take time and probably weeks of preparation before we could do anything and it would be fairly easily spotted. I think a more likely scenario wouldn’t be a full invasion of Canada. Fort Drum is only a few hours’ drive from Ottawa, and we don’t have any troops deployed along that route that could react to stop them if they moved quickly. I could see a decapitation strike against the federal government in Ottawa, backed up by airstrikes against any Canadian Forces units that get a bit fighty. Present the rest of Canada with an ultimatum, that the US is now in de facto control of the country, and see what happens. ---
**Author:** ![scudsucker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scudsucker/32/14101_2.png) [@scudsucker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scudsucker)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2025, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-realistically-actually-happen-if-trump-invaded-canada-and-or-greenland-mexico-panama-etc/1012898/66 "2025-01-13T19:01:33Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > and see what happens. Not sure if you watched the Coen Brothers “Fargo”? It is based in North Dakota but gives a decent idea of what those snow-bound northerners can do ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2025, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-realistically-actually-happen-if-trump-invaded-canada-and-or-greenland-mexico-panama-etc/1012898/67 "2025-01-13T19:03:14Z")
I have not, but really, “Do stupid shit and see what happens” should be on Trump’s family crest. ---
**Author:** ![BippityBoppityBoo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bippityboppityboo/32/5745_2.png) [@BippityBoppityBoo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BippityBoppityBoo)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2025, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-realistically-actually-happen-if-trump-invaded-canada-and-or-greenland-mexico-panama-etc/1012898/68 "2025-01-13T19:04:23Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > Do stupid shit and see what happens” should be on Trump’s family crest. “Do **insane** stupid shit and see what happens”. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2025, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-realistically-actually-happen-if-trump-invaded-canada-and-or-greenland-mexico-panama-etc/1012898/69 "2025-01-13T19:15:31Z")
Trump is not going to invade Greenland, never mind Canada. Josh Marshall on Greenland: > None of this stuff is going to happen. What’s possible is a bunch of bullshit followed by some negotiations in which the Kingdom of Denmark agrees to some minor changes to the existing agreement which allows the U.S. military pretty vast liberties to defend and operate in Greenland. (That’s the NAFTA model: bullshit followed by some discussions and then huge fanfare for marginal changes to existing agreements.) > It is the same story that we’ve talked about in other contexts: the constant stream of threats and maybes… Absurd tempests in teapots, the effect of which is to have everyone else in a pattern of reaction. He acts — or really _doesn’t_ act, he jabbers — and everyone else reacts. And spin maybe 12 of those things at any one time. And that’s life under Trump. I add bolding: > Some things we know Trump is serious about. Trump’s clearly going to up the number of deportations. Whether that’s really going to be “mass deportation” or not or what counts as that we don’t know. But we know some version of that is going to happen because he and his people have laid a lot of groundwork for that. Paying for the Trump tax cuts by taking away people’s health care. That’s real. Abusive criminal probes, same thing. We know the difference, because talk is cheap and Trump’s world is mostly talk, threat and bravado. The spike to this latest round about Greenland was textbook Trump, ending on he won’t “rule out” military force. And everyone flutters into a tizzy. **Action is when things get real.** Are we really falling into this same pattern where we’re into “not ruling out” nonsense cycles? Yes, we are. I think it’s fine to debate hypotheticals, but let’s not pretend that an invasion of Greenland is any way probable. Panama would be the first step though. That deserves the bulk of the attention by prudent low probability contingency planners. I doubt that would happen. But it would be irresponsible not to think _a little_ about it (outside of Panama, where you would want to think harder). If Trump attempted to conquer Panama for purely commercial reasons (aka very stupid reasons - modern war _never_ makes economic sense, because resources are cheap relative to warfare) Canada and Europe will need to reshape their alliances, while Japan will need to rethink them. As an American citizen, I would want to contemplate such a rupture of the social contract. Gifted TPM post: [https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/greenland-panama-canada-none-of-that-is-going-to-happen/sharetoken/b16d3d53-0617-4a35-b361-927c5836856a](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/greenland-panama-canada-none-of-that-is-going-to-happen/sharetoken/b16d3d53-0617-4a35-b361-927c5836856a) ETA: @Der_Trihs has a habit of focusing on scenarios well over 5 years out. His posts should be read in that light. There’s a big fight in Maga-land over the steering wheel, and if the white supremacists win overwhelmingly (they won’t, barring external events like, oh, recession) then we’ll have to deal with US Joint Chiefs that make [Curtis LeMay](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curtis_LeMay) look like a pascifist. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2025, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-realistically-actually-happen-if-trump-invaded-canada-and-or-greenland-mexico-panama-etc/1012898/70 "2025-01-13T19:41:12Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > old War I was a battle of Lawful Good vs. Lawful Evil. Which side was LG and which was LE pray tell?.. ---
**Author:** ![Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/son_of_a_rich/32/5439_2.png) [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Son_of_a_Rich)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2025, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-realistically-actually-happen-if-trump-invaded-canada-and-or-greenland-mexico-panama-etc/1012898/71 "2025-01-13T19:44:32Z")
In a sane world, ordering troops to attack an ally unprovoked would be one of those “unlawful orders” we heard about in Basic Training. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2025, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-realistically-actually-happen-if-trump-invaded-canada-and-or-greenland-mexico-panama-etc/1012898/72 "2025-01-13T19:50:20Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > Except the US would still be massively more powerful than Russia. Russia would end up in a position similar to what France or the UK were in during Cold War I. They would be forced to join the US side of the alliance, but there’s not a chance in hell they would be the top dog. Their other option would be to try to eke out an existence as third power in a US vs China Cold War II, but they’d likely be even worse off in that scenario than they would be as the junior partner to the US. I disagree. The United States is more powerful than Russia. And China is probably more powerful than Russia. But Russia is still powerful enough that neither the United States or China is going to risk a war with Russia. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2025, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-realistically-actually-happen-if-trump-invaded-canada-and-or-greenland-mexico-panama-etc/1012898/73 "2025-01-13T19:56:47Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > If Trump attempted to conquer Panama for purely commercial reasons (aka very stupid reasons - modern war _never_ makes economic sense, because resources are cheap relative to warfare) Extremely stupid reasons. What exactly would we be fighting for in Panama? Access to the Canal? We already have that. Ownership of the Canal? Why? We can already use the Canal and somebody else is doing all the work of maintaining it. The United States would be worse off owning the Canal. Declaring war on Panama in 2025 would be a replay of 1989. It would be an excuse for the President to call himself a war leader. ---
**Author:** ![Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/son_of_a_rich/32/5439_2.png) [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Son_of_a_Rich)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2025, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-realistically-actually-happen-if-trump-invaded-canada-and-or-greenland-mexico-panama-etc/1012898/74 "2025-01-13T20:12:20Z")
He thinks it would make him a man. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2025, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-realistically-actually-happen-if-trump-invaded-canada-and-or-greenland-mexico-panama-etc/1012898/75 "2025-01-13T20:33:05Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Extremely stupid reasons. What exactly would we be fighting for in Panama? Denying it to Panama. It’s how Trump thinks, he _hates the very concept_ of mutually beneficial relationships and _other_ people profiting off of something. Even if Panama blew up the canal as suggested, he’d consider that a win as it would mean _they_ didn’t have it anymore. I think that’s why he’s aggressive to Greenland as well; we have a mutually cooperative relation with Greenland, which in Trump’s eyes makes the US “losers”. Winners would have a relationship of “Greenland gives the US everything it wants in return for nothing”. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2025, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-realistically-actually-happen-if-trump-invaded-canada-and-or-greenland-mexico-panama-etc/1012898/76 "2025-01-13T20:50:38Z")
> [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](#): > > attack an ally unprovoked “Unprovoked”? Did you not see the dictatorial leader of the illegitimate Canadian regime blatantly telling president Trump “No”?!?! ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2025, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-realistically-actually-happen-if-trump-invaded-canada-and-or-greenland-mexico-panama-etc/1012898/77 "2025-01-13T21:26:42Z")
**Whereas** the OP – welcome be the new one! – in his original statement has called _him whose name shall not be spoken but only belched or farted_ the Fanta Menace, and **recalling** that this is the BBQ Pit, where hijacks are allowed and thus unavoidable, and **considering** that Godwin’s Law, though not invoqued yet, is still valid and fully aplicable, and **by virtue** of historic precedent it is now both necessary, pertinent and the right moment to recall for those who knew and to inform those who did not know that Fanta™ a) was developed by Nazi Germany in 1941 as as a Coca-Cola alternative due to the American trade embargo which affected the availability of Coca-Cola ingredients b) to circumvent this embargo, [Max Keith](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Keith), the head of Coca-Cola Deutschland (Coca-Cola GmbH), decided to create a new product for the German market, using only ingredients available in Germany at the time, including sugar beet, whey (a cheese byproduct), and apple [pomace](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pomace) c) ingredients Max Keith himself later described as the “leftovers of leftovers” **Therefore** the initial description is hereby declared politically and historically correct, pertinent to his argument, accurate in its composition and generally sensible, so that it shall **henceforth** be freely used by all men and women of taste and good will. [**Cite**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fanta), just in case. And now for something completely different: > [@Horatius](#): > > Were I President of Panama, I’d have a plan in place to destroy the canal at the first sign of a US invasion. Once those plans were in place, I’d make sure everyone in the world knows about them. Those plans exist and are well known to anybody who cares to know: Blow up the [**Madden Dam**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden_Dam) and the **[Gatun Dam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gatun_Dam)**. Blowing up dams is easy: nature works in your favour. Reconstruction would take years, filling the reservoirs up again, with the current drought due to whisper it! climate change a decade. But if you go this way make damn sure your oponent believes your threat and does not call your bluff. > [@Frodo](#): > > > [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > > > old War I was a battle of Lawful Good vs. Lawful Evil. > > Which side was LG and which was LE pray tell? I have the suspition **FTB** thinks Pinochet, Videla, Franco, the Shah of Persia and Mobutu Sese Seko were on the side of Lawful Good. Any other interpretation runs into contradictions. And as Ayn Rand wrote: “Contradictions do not exist. Whenever you think that you are facing a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong.” And as she is **[Shirley](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KM2K7sV-K74)** on the side of Lawful Good, the rest follows easily: Nixon and Kissinger were the good ones, and so were their friends, QED. ---
**Author:** ![OttoDaFe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ottodafe/32/356_2.png) [@OttoDaFe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OttoDaFe)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2025, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-realistically-actually-happen-if-trump-invaded-canada-and-or-greenland-mexico-panama-etc/1012898/78 "2025-01-13T21:42:19Z")
> [@Pardel-Lux](#): > > … Blow up the [**Madden Dam**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden_Dam) and the **[Gatun Dam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gatun_Dam)**. Blowing up dams is easy: nature works in your favour. Reconstruction would take years, filling the reservoirs up again, with the current drought due to whisper it! climate change a decade. … No problem. Plans for a [Nicaraguan canal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicaraguan_Canal_and_Development_Project) have been tossed around for at least 200 years; with Trump’s infrastructure expertise, it could be completed in, oh, two weeks (toss in another couple of days to conquer the country and turn it into a US ~~colony~~ protectorate). ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2025, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-realistically-actually-happen-if-trump-invaded-canada-and-or-greenland-mexico-panama-etc/1012898/79 "2025-01-13T22:52:50Z")
> [@Frodo](#): > > Which side was LG and which was LE pray tell?. The US was LG. > _[Originally posted by Woodrow Wilson](https://historymatters.gmu.edu/d/4943/)_ > The world must be made safe for democracy. Its peace must be planted upon the tested foundations of political liberty. We have no selfish ends to serve. We desire no conquest, no dominion. We seek no indemnities for ourselves, no material compensation for the sacrifices we shall freely make. We are but one of the champions of the rights of mankind. We shall be satisfied when those rights have been made as secure as the faith and the freedom of nations can make them. Whatever you say about the Iraq War – [and you can say a lot](https://www.statista.com/statistics/269729/documented-civilian-deaths-in-iraq-war-since-2003/) – it was not fought to gain territory, though some architects (not all) such as Cheney would have probably been happy with a puppet dictatorship. This was very much unlike the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, and unlike Trump’s original proposal to purchase Greenland from Denmark. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2025, 5:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-realistically-actually-happen-if-trump-invaded-canada-and-or-greenland-mexico-panama-etc/1012898/80 "2025-01-14T05:55:37Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > The US was LG. Lawful Good doesn’t prop up racists and fascists and murderers. Lawful Good doesn’t assassinate good people. Lawful Good doesn’t destroy villages to save them. The idea that Cold War USA was LG is a complete fucking lie, anyone who still believes it is a fucking idiot, and anyone who repeats it in public is trying to gaslight those of us who lived it from the other side. Fuck off. > [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > Originally posted by Woodrow Wilson You didn’t just post the words of [that KKK-beloved fucking racist](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woodrow_Wilson_and_race) as proof of anything? That’s high-larious. Here’s a quote for you: “The Sudetenland,” said _Hitler_ at the Berlin Sportspalast on September 26, 1938, “is the last territorial demand I have to make in Europe.” Words are just dust. > [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > the Iraq War Do you know when the Cold War was? What the fuck does US conduct in the _Iraq_ War (which was anyway abysmal and definitely not LG) have to do with what it was decades before? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-realistically-actually-happen-if-trump-invaded-canada-and-or-greenland-mexico-panama-etc/1012898.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-realistically-actually-happen-if-trump-invaded-canada-and-or-greenland-mexico-panama-etc/1012898.md?page=5)