# What would really happen if a state legalized marijuana? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 10, 2010, 6:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-really-happen-if-a-state-legalized-marijuana/531952 "2010-03-10T06:34:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Algorithm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/algorithm/32/12204_2.png) [@Algorithm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Algorithm)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2010, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-really-happen-if-a-state-legalized-marijuana/531952/21 "2010-03-16T23:53:52Z")
> [@figure9](#): > > Would there really be that much tax revenue? MJ is a weed. You can grow it almost anywhere. I think we would be able to grow much more than we can use. Pot gardeners would be giving the stuff away for free. Is that why blackberries and raspberries are free? Oh, wait. ---
**Author:** ![HoboStew](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/f17d59/32.png) [@HoboStew](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HoboStew)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2010, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-really-happen-if-a-state-legalized-marijuana/531952/22 "2010-03-17T00:12:25Z")
> [@Zoe](#): > > 1. The price of marijuana will go way down. Cite? Growing high quality MJ is not as trivial as I think some people believe it is. I don’t buy the idea that criminalization is propping up some inflated market; there just isn’t that much risk in cultivation. I think the current prices are about what you would see post-legalization, especially given the “legalize it and tax the hell out of it” attitude that I see from a lot of neutral observers. [QUOTE=figure9] MJ is a weed. You can grow it almost anywhere. I think we would be able to grow much more than we can use. Pot gardeners would be giving the stuff away for free. [/QUOTE] Nonsense. That may be true of hemp, which nobody smokes, but is not true with stuff sold on the street. ---
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2010, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-really-happen-if-a-state-legalized-marijuana/531952/23 "2010-03-17T00:13:48Z")
> [@figure9](#): > > Would there really be that much tax revenue? MJ is a weed. You can grow it almost anywhere. I think we would be able to grow much more than we can use. Pot gardeners would be giving the stuff away for free. From what I understand, the smokable stuff is a pain-in-the-ass to grow right. ---
**Author:** ![Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/46a35a/32.png) [@Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tim_T-Bonham.net)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2010, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-really-happen-if-a-state-legalized-marijuana/531952/24 "2010-03-17T00:41:57Z")
> [@Cheshire\_Human](#): > > Where the _ **HELL** _ do you get the idea it’s the “right wing” that supports drugs being illegal??? Back in the early '90s, **National Review** , THE magazine of the “right wing” intellectual movement, devoted an _ **entire** _ issue titled “The War on Drugs is Over, It’s Lost” [I may have got the exact title misworded, but the gist is correct]. The premise of the ENTIRE issue was that legalization was the PROPER conservative response to the problem. You read too much left-wing propaganda if you think it’s the _right_ that insists on the “drug war”. Maybe from comparing the Party Platforms? “Clinton surrendered Drug War”, 2000 Republican Party Platform “Aggressively pursue drug kingpins; include death penalty”, 2000 Republican Party Platform “Drug abuse and addiction ruin lives. There can be no debate about it. Every adult has a responsibility to teach children about the dangers of drugs”, 2004 Republican Party Platform “expand drug treatment for at-risk youth; … provide drug treatment upon demand.”, 2000 Democratic Party Platform “The Democratic Party understands that no policy of prosecution will succeed unless it is combined with robust investment in alternative ways”, 2004 Democratic Party Platform And individual state Democratic Parties have been even more aggressive; for example, the Washington State Democratic Party Platform calls for the complete legalization of marijuana. ---
**Author:** ![Algorithm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/algorithm/32/12204_2.png) [@Algorithm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Algorithm)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2010, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-really-happen-if-a-state-legalized-marijuana/531952/25 "2010-03-17T00:44:07Z")
> [@HoboStew](#): > > Cite? Growing high quality MJ is not as trivial as I think some people believe it is. I don’t buy the idea that criminalization is propping up some inflated market; there just isn’t that much risk in cultivation. I think the current prices are about what you would see post-legalization, especially given the “legalize it and tax the hell out of it” attitude that I see from a lot of neutral observers. [Cite](http://economics.about.com/od/incometaxestaxcuts/a/marijuana.htm): > [@](#): > > The study estimates that the average price of 0.5 grams (a unit) of marijuana sold for $8.60 on the street, while its cost of production was only $1.70. In a free market, a $6.90 profit for a unit of marijuana would not last for long. Entrepreneurs noticing the great profits to be made in the marijuana market would start their own grow operations, increasing the supply of marijuana on the street, which would cause the street price of the drug to fall to a level much closer to the cost of production. Also note that the cost of production would generally decrease, as economies of scale and the ability to produce in an optimal growing region and ship en masse to regions of high demand would drive down those costs. ---
**Author:** ![HoboStew](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/f17d59/32.png) [@HoboStew](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HoboStew)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2010, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-really-happen-if-a-state-legalized-marijuana/531952/26 "2010-03-17T00:50:37Z")
I tried to read the actual study that article links, but the link is apparently dead. I think the numbers they give would only work with your mentioned economies of scale. I’d like to see where they came up with those #s. I’m dubious, frankly. ---
**Author:** ![Algorithm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/algorithm/32/12204_2.png) [@Algorithm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Algorithm)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2010, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-really-happen-if-a-state-legalized-marijuana/531952/27 "2010-03-17T01:25:21Z")
> [@HoboStew](#): > > I tried to read the actual study that article links, but the link is apparently dead. I think the numbers they give would only work with your mentioned economies of scale. I’d like to see where they came up with those #s. I’m dubious, frankly. I found several other links, but obviously there isn’t going to be a concrete cite on this issue. The ability to grow, harvest, and ship en masse, in conjunction with a zero percent chance of having your product seized by the government would lower production costs, and the increased supply and competition would drive down profit margins. It seems to me that lowered profit margins, increased supply, and lower production costs would result in a product the government could tax heavily, and consumers could then purchase well below current black market prices. ---
**Author:** ![SteveG1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bb73d2/32.png) [@SteveG1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SteveG1)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2010, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-really-happen-if-a-state-legalized-marijuana/531952/28 "2010-03-17T01:56:41Z")
> [@Cheshire\_Human](#): > > Where the _ **HELL** _ do you get the idea it’s the “right wing” that supports drugs being illegal??? Back in the early '90s, **National Review** , THE magazine of the “right wing” intellectual movement, devoted an _ **entire** _ issue titled “The War on Drugs is Over, It’s Lost” [I may have got the exact title misworded, but the gist is correct]. The premise of the ENTIRE issue was that legalization was the PROPER conservative response to the problem. You read too much left-wing propaganda if you think it’s the _right_ that insists on the “drug war”. Personally, I don’t care if they were right or left, they were right (I mean they were correct). 😉 ---
**Author:** ![HoboStew](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/f17d59/32.png) [@HoboStew](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HoboStew)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2010, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-really-happen-if-a-state-legalized-marijuana/531952/29 "2010-03-17T02:53:14Z")
> [@Algorithm](#): > > I found several other links, but obviously there isn’t going to be a concrete cite on this issue. 😕 I’d be happy with a link to the study in that article that actually was live. If there’s several links, I would think one of them would have something concrete backing it up. > [@Algorithm](#): > > The ability to grow, harvest, and ship en masse, in conjunction with a zero percent chance of having your product seized by the government would lower production costs, and the increased supply and competition would drive down profit margins. It seems to me that lowered profit margins, increased supply, and lower production costs would result in a product the government could tax heavily, and consumers could then purchase well below current black market prices. There is already a production area where this is, essentially, the case, called [the Emerald Triangle](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emerald_Triangle). I just don’t buy your conclusion, but I would be happy to read data that argues against it. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2010, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-really-happen-if-a-state-legalized-marijuana/531952/30 "2010-03-17T03:11:33Z")
> [@Cheshire\_Human](#): > > The premise of the ENTIRE issue was that legalization was the PROPER conservative response to the problem. Well, there’s your problem; there are damn few PROPER conservatives left in this country. The PROPER conservative movement has been swamped by the CULTURAL conservatives, who have sidetracked the classic conservative issues of smaller government and lower taxes into a melange of intrusive big brother issues like anti drugs, anti-gay marriage and evangelical religious propaganda. We cannot be faulted for attributing the drug war to conservatives when what passes for conservatism today (having trampled PROPER conservatives into the dust) is the driving force behind it. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2010, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-really-happen-if-a-state-legalized-marijuana/531952/31 "2010-03-17T03:39:32Z")
Heck, if California jumps on the wagon first they could legalize it and tax it such that it costs _more_ than the street version. Just the legality would drive sales, and the tax revenues could be significant. ---
**Author:** ![Grumman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/43a26b/32.png) [@Grumman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grumman)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2010, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-really-happen-if-a-state-legalized-marijuana/531952/32 "2010-03-17T03:57:21Z")
> [@Zoe](#): > > 1. Production of marijuana cigarettes, roach clips, bongs, and other associated items will increase. They will need employees for growing, processing, distribution, etc. Good for the work force. > > 2. A hefty tax can be placed on the MJ and it will still be cheap in comparison. All sorts of state programs will benefit. College tuitions can be lowered again. Keep in mind that every dollar spent on marijuana is a dollar not spent on other things. You can still get better off by increasing exports (marijuana tourism, perhaps?) or reducing imports, but it’s not as simple as funnelling funds through the dope economy. ---
**Author:** ![Algorithm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/algorithm/32/12204_2.png) [@Algorithm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Algorithm)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2010, 6:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-really-happen-if-a-state-legalized-marijuana/531952/33 "2010-03-17T06:31:21Z")
> [@HoboStew](#): > > 😕 I’d be happy with a link to the study in that article that actually was live. If there’s several links, I would think one of them would have something concrete backing it up. Specifically I’m referring to the full legalization of marijuana production, sale, and use in the USA and its effects on production costs, supply, and profit margins. There can’t be a concrete cite because, well, that hasn’t happened. It’ll all be speculation. > [@HoboStew](#): > > There is already a production area where this is, essentially, the case, called [the Emerald Triangle](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emerald_Triangle). I just don’t buy your conclusion, but I would be happy to read data that argues against it. There’s more than simply the available supply of marijuana, but essentially: [ol] [li]Legalization of marijuana production and sale will cause an increase in supply of marijuana in the US.[/li][li]Increases in supply cause decreases in price.[/li][/ol] If you don’t disagree with either of those two points, then I guess it’s a question of how significant the price decrease would be after legalization and if that is enough for the government to tax. There’s plenty of logical analysis on the issue, but if hard numbers are what you’re after, I’m afraid you’ll have to wait until after legalization occurs to analyze them. ---
**Author:** ![JWWJ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f07891/32.png) [@JWWJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JWWJ)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2010, 8:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-really-happen-if-a-state-legalized-marijuana/531952/34 "2010-03-17T08:43:04Z")
It might have an impact on the insane violence and murders on both sides of the US - Mexico border, which is a direct result of Mexican organized crime trafficking drugs to the United States. Something that apparently can’t be resolved without taking away the demand for their product. ---
**Author:** ![Claude\_Remains](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/898d66/32.png) [@Claude\_Remains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Claude_Remains)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2010, 9:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-really-happen-if-a-state-legalized-marijuana/531952/35 "2010-03-17T09:22:52Z")
> [@nilum](#): > > It will change one very important thing, our overcrowded prisons. Cannabis is listed as a schedule 1 narcotic offten leading to life sentences. That means people in for weed will see rapists and murderers come and go while there in. ---
**Author:** ![ivan\_astikov](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/58f4c7/32.png) [@ivan\_astikov](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivan_astikov)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2010, 11:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-really-happen-if-a-state-legalized-marijuana/531952/36 "2010-03-17T11:54:54Z")
> [@begbert2](#): > > I’m dubious about these conclusions. _Particularly_ that the non-mellow right would be imbibing. Can’t we just pipe it into their rooms on the quiet? Maybe secrete a little in their lunches? ---
**Author:** ![Cheshire\_Human](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/5f8ce5/32.png) [@Cheshire\_Human](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheshire_Human)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2010, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-really-happen-if-a-state-legalized-marijuana/531952/37 "2010-03-17T16:42:34Z")
> [@t-bonham@scc.net](#): > > Maybe from comparing the Party Platforms? Republican \<\> conservative / right Do you contend that Democrat = liberal / left? ---
**Author:** ![Cheshire\_Human](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/5f8ce5/32.png) [@Cheshire\_Human](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheshire_Human)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2010, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-really-happen-if-a-state-legalized-marijuana/531952/38 "2010-03-17T16:44:52Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > …The PROPER conservative movement has been swamped by the CULTURAL conservatives… _THAT_ I agree with. ---
**Author:** ![figure9](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/f0a364/32.png) [@figure9](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/figure9)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2010, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-really-happen-if-a-state-legalized-marijuana/531952/39 "2010-03-17T17:03:49Z")
O.K I’ll admit that I was overly optimistic about the average persons ability to grow MJ. Maybe as a gardener I overestimate my abilities. I would like to try to grow some quality stuff, just to see how difficult it is and what kind of yield I could get. Of course if MJ was legal I think better hybrids would come out that would make it easier for the average joe to grow. I once grew heirloom tomatoes, they had a small yield and needed a lot of attention. Improved varieties produce more and are much easier. That said, you are correct that there will always be a market for it. I still doubt that states would see a huge tax revenue from legalized MJ. Some tax revenue yes. How much? I guess that is pure speculation. ---
**Author:** ![HoboStew](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/f17d59/32.png) [@HoboStew](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HoboStew)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2010, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-really-happen-if-a-state-legalized-marijuana/531952/40 "2010-03-17T17:05:24Z")
> [@Algorithm](#): > > Specifically I’m referring to the full legalization of marijuana production, sale, and use in the USA and its effects on production costs, supply, and profit margins. There can’t be a concrete cite because, well, that hasn’t happened. It’ll all be speculation. Sure, but that speculation will be grounded in easily quantifiable #s, which is why I was hoping to see how that study arrived at the $1.70 per 0.5 grams production cost. Building a model for production cost won’t really involve a lot of guesswork - the data points are readily available. How much will it cost to rent a large warehouse, to get the necessary lights/fertilizer/irrigation equipment/etc, distribution. If I had a few days I’m sure I could come up with a reasonable figure. My point is that while MJ is illegal, all the tools required to create it are legal, thus the production cost wont change much if it were legal. The speculation part comes in how much more demand there would be if it were legal. I personally don’t think it would be much higher; my gut guess is that most people who want to smoke are already smoking. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-really-happen-if-a-state-legalized-marijuana/531952.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-really-happen-if-a-state-legalized-marijuana/531952.md?page=3)