What would REALLY happen if the 2nd Amendment were repealed?

Simple math. Of course, if you want to count Grandma getting fined for having a derringer in her panties, that will affect overall statistics. But the general notion that vastly decreasing the amount of guns per capita will have an affect on the number of gun-related incidents per capita isn’t all that controversial. You can make it so by squeezing the semantics out of things or arguing with the hypothetical, but in general, if there is a substantial ban on firearms there will be a substantial drop in the number of guns out there.

Yes yes yes, criminals will still continue to own guns. But how many people who lose their house or are sent to jail for one to five years (or seven to fifteen if their gun was used in the commission of a crime) will it take before keeping a souvenir isn’t so attractive? Yes, many will continue to be criminals none the less, sure. Have at it. But since it is legal for the state to take your guns, catcalls of jackboots get you Internet friends but still result in jail time. Gun ownership will drop. Not to zero, but it will drop.

Coming from a Moderator - that is pretty asshole comment to make in Great Debates.

Well, sure. Except ammo is only consumed when you use it. I know it degrades over the years, but how many rounds is your average owner of an illegal gun going to expend every year?

I’m just saying that gun smuggling is inevitable but on its own isn’t going to create widespread lawlessness in the same way that illegal drugs and booze do.

Of course this is a problem with the hypothetical, because if the gun ban creates widespread lawlessness that leads to more demand for illegal guns. A country like Britain doesn’t have a large problem with gun smuggling, whereas Mexico does. It isn’t just a matter of if guns are illegal they’ll inevitiably create a problematic black market. It depends on whats going on. An orderly society with a gun ban doesn’t experience a large problem with illegal guns. A disorderly society can make guns illegal but can’t really enforce the gun ban anyway.

You need to brush up on your economics.

A Glock 9mm in the US costs $438.00. That is with mass production, economies of scale and efficient transport.

You think a highly skilled metal smith will be manufacturing and selling guns in the US, illegally, for less than $50 (realize that is not his profit…we do not know what the margin is on these)?

That’s a laugh.

Also, we do not see how many people are involved in that 1,000/day production in Pakistan. So divide the profit among all involved.

Additionally, a Glock 17 weighs in at 1.36 pounds (and from what little I know that is light due to use of plastics). Let’s pretend it is all metal though for our gun smith to keep it simple.

Assuming he worked 5 days a week that smith would be buying 6,800 pounds of metal a week or 353,600 pounds of metal a year.

I am willing to bet the ATF would notice something like that if they were looking (nevermind the industrial stuff necessary to turn that much raw metal into a gun).

Nitpick: 10% of that $438.00 is a direct 10% federal excise tax on firearms, and I imagine another 15-20% is a combination of other taxes.

I read the “Ashes” series when I was a kid, and the scenario he presented could easily be mistaken for an outline for a Johnstone book-the evil president stacking the courts with evil cronies(I guess Congress calls in sick those days), said evil cronies on the court make decisions they couldn’t make in real life(“Their ruling includes the finding that the Second Amendment also means that all other ownership is outlawed”), and the patriotic Good Guys in the Red states suddenly put aside their differences and band together along with a minority of patriotic folk from the Blue states to Save The Day.

It’s not thread-shitting to point out that your scenario is incoherent.
Although it might be unnecessary.

A Glock is not going to be a comparable good to the Pakistani home-made firearms mentioned. A Glock is a very well-engineered design, notable for being somewhat inexpensive (compared to SiG-Sauer, H&K, “tuned”-1911-style pistols) for the performance. I think a comparable good for what you’re talking about would be pistols from manufacturers such as Lorcin, Jennings, and Hi-Point. Google around, but you should be able to find prices for them in the ballpark of $50-150. I’ve shot a Jennings once, and frankly, you get what you pay for. But it did suffice for shooting a 9mm bullet, somewhat accurately (I kept the shots in the 9 and 10 ring at 25 feet), if you didn’t mind a failure to extract or feed every 10 shots or so.

Also, consider that some of the cost of a modern pistol sold in the U.S. stems from product liability law, as well as a desire for a product that will last more than 500-1000 shots. A weapon that will function reliably with a variety of ammunition is also a consideration in modern pistol design. These are, I imagine, going to be secondary concerns for a black market arms maker.

**What would REALLY happen if the 2nd Amendment were repealed? **

Monkeys would begin flying out of my butt! It is that impossible.

Do you know many law enforcement officers? I know 4 very well and they are some of the most pro-gun rights people I know. I think you are going to have a revolt even within the law enforcement community before you can impliment this law. The ones I personally know have no problem with concealed weapons permits or gun ownership. They have an issue with criminals.

And what happens to the gun rights of the LEOs after they retire or change careers, they are going to give up their gun rights too? I don’t think so.

After each incident where a law enforcement officer is shot in the line of duty you may hear outrage from the community, you may hear calls for new gun restrictions from their families, but you don’t hear that sentiment coming from the LEOs themselves, do you?

I wouldn’t even grant those exceptions. Conservative pundits like Cal Thomas who don’t know any better have somehow taken to representing Oregon as a hotbed of liberalism, probably because we’ve quasi-legalized weed and occasionally elect a democrat to office:eek: Actually, if Oregon (and Washington) are hotbeds of anything it’s extreme moderate centrism. And we take 2nd amendment rights very seriously. Even California, aside from a few coastal cities is a pretty middle-of-the-road place, politically speaking.
SS

But LEOs would have much less of a problem taking guns away from “others”, who are now criminals but could be expanded to include latinos, blacks, and liberals later on down the line. But they’d keep guns for themselves and people who look like them. Until the purges, of course.

I’m not saying that all LEOs have that attitude now, in fact I am agreeing with you that they don’t. But if the attitudes of a large segment of society were to be even more radicalized than they are now, then America would be able to significantly reduce gun rights, because this attitude that a substantial portion of society is the “other” less deserving of rights would be reflected in the LEO community.

Hang on and please accept an apology from me. You said William Johnstone (I have an uncle who gave me a set of those books - the writing is terrible). I mentally read it as William Pierce (of the Turner Diaries). I thought you were comparing **Shodan **to Pierce, hence my reaction.

Apologies again.

I’ve described this scene here before, but I’ll give it another go, set in this rather loony tunes world you have created, OP.

Within days of the Repeal, both protests and “boat accidents” skyrocket. The country becomes almost paralyzed, as the 100 million gun owners in this country suddenly have a very serious, and very real beef with whatever administration may be in control at the time.

There are some incidents, most of them kept pretty low key, until the straw that breaks the camels back.

A federal agent trying to inforce a warrant for search and seizure of illegal goods (firearms) on kindly Old Man Jenkin’s farm. Jenkins, not really up to speed on currently politics, tells the agent to go fuck himself.

Within hours, there has been an “armed standoff” at the old Jenkin’s place. Not willing to be shown pulling a Waco or a Ruby Ridge, the standoff goes on for days, until finally a gung ho agent decides that it’s time to push the button. Agents move into the farm in tactical gear. Jenkins fires, in a panic. The agent is hit. Another agent is hit.

The Jenkins farmhouse is riddled with rounds. Jenkins is still alive and kicking, apparently as there are outgoing rounds as well.

The National Guard is called on to move on the farmhouse with an armored vehicle, and seize Jenkins.

This is the moment. This is where things are balanced on the end of a needle.

Lt. Williams, a local boy who has been horrified by the entire proceedings, refuses his order. He is immediately removed from his role. The next officer, also refuses.

A unit of the National Guard, under lawful orders from their chain of command, are refusing. They cite the Posse Commitatus act, they cite obscure legal factoids, they bray about illegal orders, but in the end, they refuse. They are arrested, as a group, and taken to a local holding facility.

The following day, a large group of citizens march on the facility, peacefully, but with grim signs and a grimmer demeanor. After a few hours of raising tension between the group and guards in riot gear, a shot rings out. Nobody knows who from, nobody knows why, which side, but that shot triggers an onslaught of fire into the group. Dozens are killed, hundreds wounded.

The next group approaches bearing illegal weapons. Guards, either police or military, are ordered to fire on them. Some refuse. Some will do so.

And some walk over, in uniform, weapon in hand, and join those protesting the actions at hand.

Within days, the local militaries have ceased to function as coherent combat units, and more and more servicemembers and their gear turns up missing as things get more out of control.

In the dead of night, a group with no name, storms the facility holding the original military unit. They have military weapons, and appear to be well trained. They take casualties, which they deal with in a professional manner, and extract the prisoners. That event is the Fort Sumter of the 2nd American Civil War.

Far fetched, and a bit fantastical, I know, but no more than the OP.

Holy crap, dude. Can I try?

Within days of the Repeal, both protests and “boat accidents” skyrocket. However, large numbers of people go ahead and drive on down to the “turn in your gun kiosk” next to the police station, where the smiling policeman takes their weapons and notes down their ID. Most people have a problem with this, but don’t do much about it since sending an e-mail to their Congressperson is hard.

There are some incidents - several people Tweet about it, but since 99.9999999% of all Tweets are pretty much meaningless and ignored, no one cares. Some update their Facebook status to “Angry!” Again, almost no one cares.

A federal agent trying to inforce a warrant for search and seizure of illegal goods (firearms) on kindly Old Man Jenkin’s farm. Jenkins, not really up to speed on currently politics, tells the agent to go fuck himself. Jenkins is declared a “terrorist” and linked to Al Queda and child pornography. There’s some sort of standoff involving guns and stuff, but most people don’t notice because it clashes with American Idol.

CNN tells us all that at some point the Jenkins farmhouse is riddled with rounds. Also, Michael Vick is arrested again for apparently killing Pit Bulls and selling their meat as Dog Tacos. This latter item pretty much dominates the news for the next month.

At some point enough people notice Fox News talking about some sort of National Guard uprising, but the opiate of the masses, Football, is on so after pretending to watch the news most Americans switch channels. Besides, that was some other country, right? The average American dumbass isn’t sure…

A unit of the National Guard, under lawful orders from their chain of command, are refusing. They cite the Posse Commitatus act, they cite obscure legal factoids, they bray about illegal orders, but in the end, they refuse. They are arrested, as a group, and taken to a local holding facility. Meanwhile, Paris Hilton and Lindsay Lohan decide to get married in Vermont, and pretty much everyone ignores all that pesky political and legal stuff. Lesbians are “teh hawt”, and after all, can’t someone else worry about all that other stuff?

The following day, a large group of citizens march on their local McDonalds to demand they stop using canola oil for their French fries. The National Guard facility has a few ragged protestors outside of it, most of whom really wish they were at a McDonald’s instead. After a few hours of raising tension between the group and guards in riot gear, McDonald’s agrees to switch back to lard for their fries. Late at night, as hundreds of millions of Americans eat themselves into their nightly Food Coma, there’s something on the news about a shooting. Probably in one of those countries where they wear towels on their heads. “Montana?” Isn’t that by that one country…Narnia? Yeah.

The President makes a speech about the dangerous standoff underway. As usual, the President’s speech is roundly ignored as people turn on their xBoxes and play Guitar Hero XXIII: Woodstock. The National Guard clashes with the military as hordes of overweight teens holding plastic guitar-shaped phalluses clash with Jimi Hendrix on their 98-inch TVs.

Within days, the local militaries have ceased to function as coherent combat units, and more and more servicemembers and their gear turns up missing as things get more out of control. No one really cares, as there’s a 1% chance of snow tonight, and the local news keeps interrupting programs with a high-school dropout weather person who takes 50 minutes to say what could have been conveyed in a Tweet. There are near riots, however, as NCIS gets preempted too many times and the “Abby 4Evah Fan Club” marches on the station. Some Furries are involved; no one is sure exactly why, but it does get round-the-clock tag-team reporting on all 6 major networks.

The next morning a group of ragtag-looking individuals appears on the news announcing that “a new day in America” has dawned, and announcing the calling of a Constitutional Convention. Busy dads and moms pretty much ignore the news, except for the dads who sneak the sports page into work so they can read it in the toilet. Kids play their games and engage in Facebook psychodramas which would make Voltaire himself weep with joy. Old people sit in their “retirement castles” and pray their Social Security checks come.

Pretty much business as usual.

Well, never mind then. I’ll just stay out of any attempt at discussion of the OP.

Jesus. 99% of Japanese people are Japanese, sharing the same culture, heritage and socioeconomic status. It’s a neat, tidy, orderly country, without a gigantic underclass, centuries-old social and racial divides, and huge, thriving violent criminal element like America has.

I wasn’t talking about talking about those who want regulation. I was talking about those who pretty much want to flat out eliminate guns and pretend the 2nd amendment gives no right to ownership at all. If there should be regulation, and how much, is a different issue. As you say, we shouldn’t hijack the thread with that. I’m just saying the hypothetical the OP presented is actually the correct way gun ownership should be banned in the US, if it ever is.

People who think that LEOs and military are going to obey orders to confiscate everyone’s guns don’t know any LEOs and military. Do you have any idea how many of these people are themselves hardcore gun enthusiasts and firm believers in the most right-wing interpretation of the 2nd Amendment?

If an administration were going to confiscate America’s guns, they would have to recruit a whole new army of people who agree with their ideology. I don’t know where in the hell they would get these people from…

A dramatic increase in demand for treatment of cyclothymic disorders or other serious symptoms of dysphoria for people who have been accustomed to pacify their inadequacy related anxiety by fantasizing about killing people that their social class or political ideology determines as undesirables.

Aren’t we always told the reason to oppose registration is that it leads to confiscation?

And who do you think confiscated guns in the aftermath of Katrina?