# What would the world look like today if Archduke Ferdinand had never been assassinated? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 1, 2017, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-the-world-look-like-today-if-archduke-ferdinand-had-never-been-assassinated/790298 "2017-07-01T18:57:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 8\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2017, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-the-world-look-like-today-if-archduke-ferdinand-had-never-been-assassinated/790298/21 "2017-07-08T13:14:50Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > However, Kaiser William made a critical mistake and tried to build a fleet to challenge the British navy, so the Brits were not gonna remain neutral. Critical mistake, shows he had no understanding of the British. I just happen to be [del]going[/del] wading through a [book](https://smile.amazon.com/gp/product/B0089EHK70/ref=kinw_myk_ro_title) covering just that. It does not paint Kaiser [Wilhelm II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilhelm_II%2C_German_Emperor) in a favorable light. In the wiki article: > [@](#): > > Bombastic and impetuous, he sometimes made tactless pronouncements on sensitive topics without consulting his ministers, culminating in a disastrous Daily Telegraph interview in 1908 that cost him most of his influence. > > Wilhelm had seen the interview as an opportunity to promote his views and ideas on Anglo-German friendship, but due to his emotional outbursts during the course of the interview, he ended up further alienating not only the British, but also the French, Russians, and Japanese. He implied, among other things, that the Germans cared nothing for the British; that the French and Russians had attempted to incite Germany to intervene in the Second Boer War; and that the German naval buildup was targeted against the Japanese, not Britain. Being over a thousand pages, Massie’s book covers this in infinitely more detail. But Willie was not the only one to blame in Germany. The army staff felt war with Russia was inevitable and it would be better sooner than later because Russia was getting only stronger militarily. Europe was pretty much a powder keg surrounded by sparklers; it was a matter of chance which one would set it off. After all, Ferdinand’s car stopped only five feet from Princip and his pistol because the driver had made a wrong turn. ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2017, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-the-world-look-like-today-if-archduke-ferdinand-had-never-been-assassinated/790298/22 "2017-07-08T14:19:27Z")
The Ottomans were still pulling back out of Europe … the Russians still wanted the Balkans (better sea ports) … Austria still wanted to stop the Russians etc etc etc … Thank you for your summary of UK politics, **Malden Capell** , that’s an interesting twist to this saga … Britain wasn’t beholden to either the France/Russian or German/Austrian alliances … She could well have stayed out of the War with so much domestic upheaval … So … Germany, Austria and the Ottomans WIN the war … then Hitler never comes to power in a strong Germany, the Terminator never becomes governor of California, Ottoman decay is more peaceful and just … Britain and Germany/Austria happily split up France’s colonies, forming a prosperous and beneficial permanent peace … Germany does have the desire and the where-with-all to develop atomic weapons first and proceeds to annihilate the Soviet Union with them … Ubereurope becomes the dominate world economic force with all the Ottoman oil … New England is in financial ruin and the Falcons hold on against the Salt Lake City Patriots in overtime … The bad news is the Holocaust still happens, but this time it’s successful … the Jews build their third temple in New Mexico … Martin Luther King Jr turns out to be Jesus Christ Himself and _still_ gets assassinated … Mike Godwin is disbarred for calling Supreme Court Chief Justice Lyndon LaRouche a dirty LaDouchebag … ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2017, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-the-world-look-like-today-if-archduke-ferdinand-had-never-been-assassinated/790298/23 "2017-07-08T17:27:48Z")
> [@DesertDog](#): > > I just happen to be [del]going[/del] wading through a [book](https://smile.amazon.com/gp/product/B0089EHK70/ref=kinw_myk_ro_title) covering just that. It does not paint Kaiser [Wilhelm II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilhelm_II%2C_German_Emperor) in a favorable light. In the wiki article:Being over a thousand pages, Massie’s book covers this in infinitely more detail. > > But Willie was not the only one to blame in Germany. The army staff felt war with Russia was inevitable and it would be better sooner than later because Russia was getting only stronger militarily. > > Europe was pretty much a powder keg surrounded by sparklers; it was a matter of chance which one would set it off. After all, Ferdinand’s car stopped only five feet from Princip and his pistol because the driver had made a wrong turn. Yes, and castles of Steel is also a great read. But as you said _long._ Sure, The General Staff wanted a war with Russia. But Germany could handle Russia. Even France and Russia. But not France and Russia and Britain. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Pig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c57346/32.png) [@Little\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Pig)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2017, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-the-world-look-like-today-if-archduke-ferdinand-had-never-been-assassinated/790298/24 "2017-07-08T22:48:37Z")
> [@don\_t\_ask](#): > > The Atlanta Falcons wouldn’t have given up their 25 point lead in Super Bowl LI. And Lest We Forget, the Patriots _covered the spread_. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Reddy\_Mercury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/43a26b/32.png) [@Reddy\_Mercury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Reddy_Mercury)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2017, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-the-world-look-like-today-if-archduke-ferdinand-had-never-been-assassinated/790298/25 "2017-07-09T00:22:33Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > The Ottoman Empire was going to collapse sooner or later. I could picture the war starting when the various colonial powers try to carve up the remains. Question is, would the other Empires still be with us? ---
**Author:** ![Reddy\_Mercury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/43a26b/32.png) [@Reddy\_Mercury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Reddy_Mercury)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2017, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-the-world-look-like-today-if-archduke-ferdinand-had-never-been-assassinated/790298/26 "2017-07-09T00:31:08Z")
> [@DesertDog](#): > > Back around 1980 the Association of Newspaper Editors had their big convention in Berkley. Just for fun they had a contest to determine the most startling headline imaginable. The winner was: > > Archduke Ferdinand Found Alive > _World War I all a mistake_ > > I am very fond of the YouTube channel [The Great War](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUcyEsEjhPEDf69RRVhRh4A). Host Indy Neidell has been putting up an episode a week since 2014 on what happened in the war that week – about 200 by now – plus an equal number of specials covering subjects in greater detail, biographies of those involved, and answering questions by viewers. > > He contends that Austro-Hungarian Field Marshall [Hötzendorf](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_Conrad_von_H%C3%B6tzendorf) had been angling for a war with the Serbs for some time. No fewer than thirty times in the preceding two years he had urged Emperor [Franz Josef](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_Joseph_I_of_Austria) let slip the dogs of war. Each time, the (relatively) liberal heir presumptive Archduke [Franz Ferdinand](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archduke_Franz_Ferdinand_of_Austria) counseled otherwise and prevailed. With his removal (by Serbs, no less) the result was inevitable but even without Ferdie’s demise, the Höt man would have prevailed sooner or later. If you want to lay the war in the lap of any one person, Neidell says, it would be Hötzendorf. You have to wonder if certain elements in Austria-Hungary’s government may have allowed Franz to get killed. Him being dead certainly helped the hawks. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2017, 4:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-the-world-look-like-today-if-archduke-ferdinand-had-never-been-assassinated/790298/27 "2017-07-09T04:15:17Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > The Ottomans were still pulling back out of Europe … the Russians still wanted the Balkans (better sea ports) … Austria still wanted to stop the Russians etc etc etc … > > Thank you for your summary of UK politics, **Malden Capell** , that’s an interesting twist to this saga … Britain wasn’t beholden to either the France/Russian or German/Austrian alliances … She could well have stayed out of the War with so much domestic upheaval … > > So … Germany, Austria and the Ottomans WIN the war … then Hitler never comes to power in a strong Germany, the Terminator never becomes governor of California, Ottoman decay is more peaceful and just … Britain and Germany/Austria happily split up France’s colonies, forming a prosperous and beneficial permanent peace … Germany does have the desire and the where-with-all to develop atomic weapons first and proceeds to annihilate the Soviet Union with them … Ubereurope becomes the dominate world economic force with all the Ottoman oil … New England is in financial ruin and the Falcons hold on against the Salt Lake City Patriots in overtime … > > The bad news is the Holocaust still happens, but this time it’s successful … the Jews build their third temple in New Mexico … Martin Luther King Jr turns out to be Jesus Christ Himself and _still_ gets assassinated … Mike Godwin is disbarred for calling Supreme Court Chief Justice Lyndon LaRouche a dirty LaDouchebag … Please stop with the damned ellipses. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2017, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-the-world-look-like-today-if-archduke-ferdinand-had-never-been-assassinated/790298/28 "2017-07-09T14:22:31Z")
> [@Reddy\_Mercury](#): > > You have to wonder if certain elements in Austria-Hungary’s government may have allowed Franz to get killed. Him being dead certainly helped the hawks. I dunno; that’s pretty close to the false-flag conspiracy theories flying around today. It would have been far easier to concoct a story of a Serbian breaking into Ferdinand’s residence and shooting him there, leaving behind a handy corpse. Ferdinand was in Sarajevo to inspect the troops there. Because Sophie’s marriage to Ferdinand was [morganatic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morganatic_marriage), > [@A.J.P. Taylor](#): > > [Sophie] could never share [Franz Ferdinand’s] rank … could never share his splendours, could never even sit by his side on any public occasion. There was one loophole … his wife could enjoy the recognition of his rank when he was acting in a military capacity. Hence, he decided, in 1914, to inspect the army in Bosnia. There, at its capital Sarajevo, the Archduke and his wife could ride in an open carriage side by side … Thus, for love, did the Archduke go to his death. On the way to the troops, the motorcade passed a pair of Black Hand assassins who failed to act, but a third, Nedeljko Čabrinović, lobbed a bomb at Ferdinand’s automobile. The bomb bounced off of the back of the car to explode under the one following, injuring 16-20 people. After the ceremonies at city hall, Ferdinand and Sophie decided deviate from the plan to visit the bomb victims in the hospital. In the confusion, the driver of his vehicle was not informed of the change and turned right onto Franz Josef street, the original route. Told of his error, he stopped in front of a delicatessen and prepared to back up. After the failed attempt earlier, Princip had stopped in the delicatessen for a sandwich. Seeing his opportunity, he exited and fired two fatal shots at Ferdinand and Sophie. The rest, as they say, is history but it’s a lot of moving parts that had to go just right for an A-H black operation. Personally I suspect a lot of the warlike attitude was in response to Otto von Bismarck’s political maneuvers thirty years before. At that time, the [German Confederation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Confederation) (Deutcher Bund) was a conglomeration of some 39 German-speaking states of which Austria was the big wheel. After a great deal of Bismark’s diplomatic maneuvering and a [small war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austro-Prussian_War), the northern German states were unified under Prussian hegemony and Austria was left out in the cold. Even after the southern German states joined up, creating the [German Empire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Empire), Austria was basically told to pound sand. That had to sting. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-would-the-world-look-like-today-if-archduke-ferdinand-had-never-been-assassinated/790298.md?page=1)