Yeah, I can’t look at it in terms of lottery winnings, I can only view it in terms of net worth.
Assuming I live to 85 (I think my pension expires after 20 years, not 100% sure though), I’ve got 42 years to go. I’m not really worried about the number of years, though.
I’m working towards a $2M net worth, counting the sale value of the house, the lifetime value of the pension, and investments and savings, but not including Social Security since I pretty much expect that to be a declining benefit whose lifetime value I cannot predict. Assuming I don’t get somehow knocked out of my job involuntarily, retiring at 65 (though perhaps retiring from this demanding job sometime after 50), my pension + Social Security should add up to about $50k/yr.
I am making good progress paying off my 30-year mortgage ahead of time, so I should have the house paid off by the time I retire. With that out of the way, living off of $50k/yr really ought to be do-able by itself. While this place is not a palace, it is beautiful and sufficient, and also in a high value-growth area. The first place I bought could be the last.
If I stay in this house until age 65, it will probably be worth $1M-$1.5M, possibly a lot more. The lifetime value of the pension could top $750,000 or more (paid out one month at a time for 20 years). Right there, I am already at my $2M mark. Hopefully I will not be forced to sell my house and move some place cheaper to get by, and I could always take out home-equity loans to drag out my time here if it came down to it, but exercising that option would cover my expenses for a long, long time.
Ok. I get to add the rest of my working life income to the $2M+ I will achieve if I just don’t die young, for a total of $4-$5M, or more (though I am going to be spending a lot of it on mortgage and bills…). So far anyway I have displayed a knack for investing. A $500k portfolio could easily yield $15k+ in dividends alone. If the principal grows, as it is wont to do under my management, I can trim it periodically for probably another $15k per year, maybe more in some years. Now we are looking at $80k/yr income, no mortgage and no absolute capital curtailment on a very conservative estimate of the cash value of my portfolio 22 years from now. My 401k alone should achieve that, not counting my separate ‘liquid’ stock portfolio.
Looks like a defensive game to me at this point. If I live past 86, I just draw it down or become a ward of the state, I may not know the difference at that point anyway. OTOH, I have proven to be a rather sturdy if not pretty physical specimen- when I catch a cold I blow my nose twice and then my immune system takes care of it (knock on wood)- so I would not discount the possibility of living to 100, in which case I hope my expectations are too conservative.