# Whats an upper range for how many people may have mad cow disease **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [February 29, 2020, 6:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-an-upper-range-for-how-many-people-may-have-mad-cow-disease/848695 "2020-02-29T06:39:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 17\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2020, 6:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-an-upper-range-for-how-many-people-may-have-mad-cow-disease/848695/1 "2020-02-29T06:39:15Z")
My understanding is that the symptoms don’t show up until you’re elderly, and then you die quickly. So you may have 40 years of no symptoms, then have severe neurological issues and die within a month. I know they tried to control the disease, but is it possible that millions of people have the disease, they just aren’t showing symptoms anytime soon? What would an upper range for how many potential people are infected be? ---
**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2020, 7:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-an-upper-range-for-how-many-people-may-have-mad-cow-disease/848695/2 "2020-02-29T07:29:31Z")
Maybe From Wiki on Variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease, the human version of bovine spongiform encephalopathy. “_As of 2012 about 170 cases of vCJD have been recorded in the United Kingdom, and 50 cases in the rest of the world. The disease has become less common since 2000. The typical age of onset is less than 30 years old._” However, "_They have also proposed that individuals having contracted CJD in the early 1990s represent a distinct genetic subpopulation, with unusually short incubation periods for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). This means that there may be many more people with vCJD with longer incubation periods, which may surface many years later."_ And then there is this, "_In 1997, a number of people from Kentucky developed vCJD. It was discovered that all had consumed squirrel brains_… So it is not the usual course for symptoms to show up in the elderly but it is possible and we will see. ---
**Author:** ![TruCelt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/trucelt/32/523_2.png) [@TruCelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TruCelt)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2020, 7:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-an-upper-range-for-how-many-people-may-have-mad-cow-disease/848695/3 "2020-02-29T07:42:27Z")
nm ---
**Author:** ![ftg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ftg/32/2801_2.png) [@ftg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ftg)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2020, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-an-upper-range-for-how-many-people-may-have-mad-cow-disease/848695/4 "2020-02-29T14:06:01Z")
How long it takes from exposure to being symptomatic varies. Genetics is often involved. During the UK outbreak they found several young people that were sick with it. Genetic testing revealed a predisposition to faster development of symptoms. So, it’s not just an “old people” thing. And even for them they still take a while to die. “Within a month” is flat out wrong. ---
**Author:** ![pool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pool/32/4152_2.png) [@pool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pool)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2020, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-an-upper-range-for-how-many-people-may-have-mad-cow-disease/848695/5 "2020-02-29T14:25:09Z")
Not directly related to mad cow but I thought it was interesting there are people who received Human Growth Hormone donated from the pituitaries of cadavers from the 1950’s - 1980’s that were infected with CJD that developed the disease decades later. ---
**Author:** ![StarvingButStrong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/starvingbutstrong/32/335_2.png) [@StarvingButStrong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/StarvingButStrong)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2020, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-an-upper-range-for-how-many-people-may-have-mad-cow-disease/848695/6 "2020-02-29T16:23:13Z")
7.8 billion per Google. ---
**Author:** ![Senegoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senegoid/32/6606_2.png) [@Senegoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Senegoid)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 4:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-an-upper-range-for-how-many-people-may-have-mad-cow-disease/848695/7 "2020-03-01T04:43:36Z")
> [@StarvingButStrong](#): > > 7.8 billion per Google. One way or another, we are ALL mad cows. ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-an-upper-range-for-how-many-people-may-have-mad-cow-disease/848695/8 "2020-03-01T22:04:13Z")
> [@Senegoid](#): > > One way or another, we are ALL mad cows. [/me looks in mirror, sees otter-like face] I’ve mutated greatly. From [the Wiki on CJD](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creutzfeldt%E2%80%93Jakob_disease): > [@](#): > > CJD affects about one per million people per year.[4] Onset is typically around 60 years of age.[4] …About 70% of people die within a year of diagnosis.[4] That affect rate in a global population of ~8 billion gives ~8,000 annual cases. That’s probably the number the OP wants. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-an-upper-range-for-how-many-people-may-have-mad-cow-disease/848695/9 "2020-03-01T23:21:18Z")
All I can say is the Red Cross thinks I might have it. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2020, 4:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-an-upper-range-for-how-many-people-may-have-mad-cow-disease/848695/10 "2020-03-02T04:49:28Z")
I thought that CJD is a hereditary genetic disease like Lewy Body Dementia, Parkinson’s and Huntington’s Disease. It just happens to some people. Whereas V-CJD - with a V - is the one that is acquired from eating diseased meat. That’s a big difference. Do the figures above distinguish between the two? ---
**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2020, 5:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-an-upper-range-for-how-many-people-may-have-mad-cow-disease/848695/11 "2020-03-02T05:26:55Z")
> [@Lamoral](#): > > I thought that CJD is a hereditary genetic disease like Lewy Body Dementia, Parkinson’s and Huntington’s Disease. It just happens to some people. Whereas V-CJD - with a V - is the one that is acquired from eating diseased meat. That’s a big difference. Do the figures above distinguish between the two? From Wiki on CJD, - People can also develop CJD because they carry a mutation of the gene that codes for the prion protein (PRNP). This occurs in only 5–10% of all CJD cases. In sporadic cases the misfolding of the prion protein is a process which is hypothesized to occur as a result of the effects of aging on cellular machinery, explaining why the disease often appears later in life.[4][15] An EU study determined that "87% of cases were sporadic, 8% genetic, 5% iatrogenic and less than 1% variant.\* **RioRico** , CJD affects about 1 miliion people a year, not one in a million. I see around 225 cases of vCJD since 2012 per Wiki. It _does_ just happen to some people, those are the sporadic cases. Supposedly 8% are thought to be genetic. ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2020, 8:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-an-upper-range-for-how-many-people-may-have-mad-cow-disease/848695/12 "2020-03-02T08:40:02Z")
> [@steatopygia](#): > > **RioRico** , CJD affects about 1 miliion people a year, not one in a million. I quoted the Wikipedia entry. What is your source? ---
**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2020, 8:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-an-upper-range-for-how-many-people-may-have-mad-cow-disease/848695/13 "2020-03-02T08:50:41Z")
The same, Wikipedia, “Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease” Quote, _“CJD affects about one per million people per year.[4]”_ I double checked what I had read after seeing your estimate. I now see that you pasted an actual quote also… Mine is the 10th line down. I see your quote now at the beginning of the Epidemiology section. [NIH](https://www.ninds.nih.gov/disorders/patient-caregiver-education/fact-sheets/creutzfeldt-jakob-disease-fact-sheet)backs your number; " It affects about one person in every one million per year worldwide; in the United States there are about 350 cases per year." My apologies ---
**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2020, 8:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-an-upper-range-for-how-many-people-may-have-mad-cow-disease/848695/14 "2020-03-02T08:57:49Z")
You are correct, I am wrong. I read that 3 times after I thought I noticed the discrepancy. I even found your quote. I then cut and pasted _my_ quote here in this reply. That’s when I noticed I has mis-read it despite looking at it specifically. Time for me to get my prions checked. My apologies. ETA you can see my my mistake in the first reply WHICH I THOUGHT I DIDN"T POST! ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2020, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-an-upper-range-for-how-many-people-may-have-mad-cow-disease/848695/15 "2020-03-02T23:49:03Z")
Apology accepted with no bias. So I’ll go with ~8000 per year globally affected by CJD. Advice: don’t eat brains. Modern zombis prove the problem. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Senegoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senegoid/32/6606_2.png) [@Senegoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Senegoid)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2020, 10:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-an-upper-range-for-how-many-people-may-have-mad-cow-disease/848695/16 "2020-03-03T10:05:04Z")
Are CJD and vCJD similar diseases with similar effects, even if they arise from different causes? Back when Mad Cow Disease was much in the news, I read an article that described the symptoms. It is truly ghastly and gruesome how it affects the brain, and how the victims suffer during the time it takes for them to slowly die. ---
**Author:** ![DemonTree](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/demontree/32/8646_2.png) [@DemonTree](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DemonTree)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2020, 10:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-an-upper-range-for-how-many-people-may-have-mad-cow-disease/848695/17 "2020-03-04T10:34:55Z")
According to a study done in 2013, 1 in 2,000 people in the UK may be infected with abnormal prions, so about 31,000 would be vulnerable to developing vCJD. Of known cases of vCJD, 177 of 229 occurred in the UK, so assuming a similar ratio there might be 9,000 carriers in the rest of the world, for a total estimate of 40,000. > **[Prevalent abnormal prion protein in human appendixes after bovine spongiform...](https://www.bmj.com/content/347/bmj.f5675)** > > Objectives To carry out a further survey of archived appendix samples to understand better the differences between existing estimates of the prevalence of subclinical infection with prions after the bovine spongiform encephalopathy epizootic and to... There’s a prototype blood test available now, if that’s accurate we might get better figures for carriers, but still have no idea how many of them will develop the disease.