# What's Bernie's remaining realistic path to the nomination? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 5, 2020, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949 "2020-03-05T05:16:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2020, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/1 "2020-03-05T05:16:18Z")
Bernie was dealt a harsh blow on Tuesday, no doubt. Do the remaining states (yet to vote) in this race favor him or Joe? The superdelegates sure won’t be on Bernie’s side should it come to a second ballot, so he can only get the nomination via direct first-ballot victory. Looks like he can only win if Warren drops out pronto, \*\*\*and \*\*\*Joe suddenly has some gaffes of a worse-than-usual nature, \*\*\*and \*\*\*Bernie somehow successfully jolts the youth into actually showing up to vote. ---
**Author:** ![Gatopescado](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gatopescado/32/5711_2.png) [@Gatopescado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gatopescado)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2020, 5:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/2 "2020-03-05T05:20:57Z")
None. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2020, 6:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/3 "2020-03-05T06:22:11Z")
Somehow kicking butt next week, especially in Michigan. Michigan is one of the must win states in the general and a surprising _big_ Sanders win there, especially one that comes with a large young Black voter turnout for him, would change the narrative. With that narrative maybe then pulling out Florida and Ohio. Then he has an argument to make if it is no one with a majority and him close to Biden. A narrow win in Michigan wouldn’t do it. Not impossible. Maybe not probable … ---
**Author:** ![Chisquirrel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6bbea6/32.png) [@Chisquirrel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chisquirrel)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2020, 6:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/4 "2020-03-05T06:22:30Z")
Get his supporters off of Facebook, Reddit, and Twitter and into the voting booths. He has significant leads in every demographic under 45, which combine to over 55% of the electorate. Unfortunately for Sanders, those same demographics are showing up at less than half the rate of Biden’s supporters. If they actually SHOW UP, he has an uphill, but viable, path. If they continue to sit at home and rage at the unfairness of other people voicing their opinion, then he losing yet again to a “milquetoast Republican-lite”. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2020, 7:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/5 "2020-03-05T07:18:35Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Somehow kicking butt next week, especially in Michigan. > > Michigan is one of the must win states in the general and a surprising _big_ Sanders win there, especially one that comes with a large young Black voter turnout for him, would change the narrative. With that narrative maybe then pulling out Florida and Ohio. Then he has an argument to make if it is no one with a majority and him close to Biden. > > A narrow win in Michigan wouldn’t do it. > > Not impossible. Maybe not probable … Bernie is dead in Florida with doubling down on Castro. Amy and Pete people are heading to Michigan to help Biden. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2020, 8:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/6 "2020-03-05T08:37:12Z")
There would have to be a major shift for him to regain his momentum. I agree that his best chance is to get out there and show that he can get young people to show up and vote. If he shows he can deliver a sizable youth vote at the polls, he has a shot at getting back into this. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2020, 10:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/7 "2020-03-05T10:21:38Z")
> [@Chisquirrel](#): > > Get his supporters off of Facebook, Reddit, and Twitter and into the voting booths. > > He has significant leads in every demographic under 45, which combine to over 55% of the electorate. Unfortunately for Sanders, those same demographics are showing up at less than half the rate of Biden’s supporters. If they actually SHOW UP, he has an uphill, but viable, path. If they continue to sit at home and rage at the unfairness of other people voicing their opinion, then he losing yet again to a “milquetoast Republican-lite”. Basically this. A very tall task, but possible. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2020, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/8 "2020-03-05T12:58:32Z")
I don’t see a path for him. With proportional delegate allocation, it’s really hard to cut into someone’s lead. Personally, I think his win in Michigan in 2016 was a fluke and Biden will actually carry this state (he’s got one vote from me here). Even if he wins say 50-30 with the rest scattered, that doesn’t translate into a delegate sweep. Biden can make that back in spades with a huge win in Georgia which he will definitely get. Add to that LA, MS, PA, DE, NJ, and likely NY. We’ve seen a remarkable turnaround in the past week, and barring another one this week I think the race is over. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2020, 1:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/9 "2020-03-05T13:22:13Z")
While I do not see a path for Sanders, I am ever so slightly rueful about the fact that it won’t be Sanders on the debate stage against Trump. I don’t think Biden will be able to express the level of scathing contempt that Bernie can pull off. Biden is simply not in the same league as a debater. But, I hold fast to the dream in which Joe punches Trump right in the mouth, FTW. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2020, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/10 "2020-03-05T14:00:16Z")
Every politician has their own strengths. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2020, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/11 "2020-03-05T14:00:22Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > I don’t see a path for him. With proportional delegate allocation, it’s really hard to cut into someone’s lead. Should be cautious though. We really don’t know what Biden’s lead is at the moment. California still can change. ---
**Author:** ![BrotherCadfael](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@BrotherCadfael](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrotherCadfael)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2020, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/12 "2020-03-05T14:08:11Z")
Chicago '68-style riots at the convention. It would kill any chance at winning the election, but it might get him the nom. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2020, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/13 "2020-03-05T14:11:33Z")
The two paths are: 1. The arrival of the Millennium on the hooves of Space Unicorns, or 2. Young people actually showing up to vote at rates at least equal to their elders. Experience suggests that Door #1 is the more realistic possibility. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2020, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/14 "2020-03-05T14:14:52Z")
I think he should show up at the convention, act insane and say "I’m not going to be ignored’ like Glenn Close did in fatal attraction. Sanders is currently trailing Biden by 67 delegates, 582 vs 515. There are still a lot of outstanding delegates in states Sanders won like CO, CA, UT. TX is mostly a wash, TN & NC have a few Biden delgates outstanding too. But again, I know there have been predictions but the delegate lead will likely narrow as more ballots are counted. There are 189 outstanding delegates in states Sanders won like CA, UT & CO; 26 outstanding in states Biden won, 33 in Texas (which was pretty much a tie), and 13 in overseas democrats. It really depends on how Sanders does in industrial midwest and northeast states. The big delegates are in IL, OH, NY, MI. Not sure how he will do in those. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2020, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/15 "2020-03-05T14:22:22Z")
Missed the edit window: Also supposedly Warren is in talks with Sanders to try to unite their campaigns. Not sure if she will succeed or if her voters will go to Sanders, but if they do that’ll help Sanders narrow the gap even more. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2020, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/16 "2020-03-05T14:23:06Z")
probably he has to have Biden get very sick or have a major screw up ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2020, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/17 "2020-03-05T14:47:22Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > I think he should show up at the convention, act insane and say "I’m not going to be ignored’ like Glenn Close did in fatal attraction. > > Sanders is currently trailing Biden by 67 delegates, 582 vs 515. There are still a lot of outstanding delegates in states Sanders won like CO, CA, UT. TX is mostly a wash, TN & NC have a few Biden delgates outstanding too. > > But again, I know there have been predictions but the delegate lead will likely narrow as more ballots are counted. There are 189 outstanding delegates in states Sanders won like CA, UT & CO; 26 outstanding in states Biden won, 33 in Texas (which was pretty much a tie), and 13 in overseas democrats. > > It really depends on how Sanders does in industrial midwest and northeast states. The big delegates are in IL, OH, NY, MI. Not sure how he will do in those. You keep saying Texas was pretty much a tie, but Biden won Texas by 5 points. That’s a solid win, especially when a majority of polls in the past month showed Bernie winning there. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2020, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/18 "2020-03-05T14:58:19Z")
Well, let’s look at the upcoming primary calendar with number of delegates at stake in parentheses, not including superdelegates): March 10 Idaho (20) Michigan (125) Mississippi (36) Missouri (68) North Dakota (14) Washington (89) Looking at that list and based on the general pattern that Sanders is stronger in the West and Biden in the South, then that’s not a terrible crop of states for Sanders IF he pulls off a good victory in Michigan. IF that happens, you could see him win MI, ID, ND and WA. 4/6 and the big prize could give him some momentum and change the narrative. If MI is essentially a draw, that generally probably helps slightly further the current Biden narrative. Biden wins MI decisively, things begin to look very dicey for Sanders. March 14 Northern Mariana I think we can agree this will have no big effect. March 17 Arizona (67) Florida (219) Illinois (155) Ohio (136) Based on current polling, this is likely a much worse crop of states for Sanders and they are big ones. Unless he can win MI and get some momentum as I mentioned earlier, these states seem like very favorable for Biden and could be where he lands the knockout punch. But maybe a Warren endorsement solidifies a Sanders lead in Illinois and puts Ohio into play? That could even the delegate count out. The race has changed quickly several times, so I don’t think any scenario is out of bounds at this point. I would not count Sanders out yet. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2020, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/19 "2020-03-05T14:59:09Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Should be cautious though. We really don’t know what Biden’s lead is at the moment. California still can change. Indeed. I’ve been following the [NPR Delegate Tracker](https://www.npr.org/2020/02/10/799979293/how-many-delegates-do-the-2020-presidential-democratic-candidates-have) pretty closely. At the moment they have Biden up 595-528 with 144 California delegates unallocated. Biden’s lead could certainly shrink to nearly nothing, but the map becomes a lot unfriendlier to Bernie in the weeks ahead. MI and WA may be his best chances among sizeable states, but I don’t see a blowout for him anywhere with huge delegate hauls. On the other hand, I can totally see Biden running up the score in PA, GA, FL, MD, NJ, and a few others. ---
**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2020, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/20 "2020-03-05T15:03:22Z")
Biden suddenly dying. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949.md?page=2)