# What's Bernie's remaining realistic path to the nomination? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 5, 2020, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949 "2020-03-05T05:16:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2020, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/61 "2020-03-06T18:02:03Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I have to disagree with this. Sanders on his worst day is not Trump. Sanders is the leader of a movement. The only cause Trump cares about is what’s best for Donald Trump. As far as Trump’s concerned, the Republican Party can go out of business they day he leaves office. > > \ Just to clarify, I never, ever said he was like Trump. I said he employed Trumpian tactics. That’s what turned me off of him for good and all in 2016. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2020, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/62 "2020-03-06T18:14:02Z")
> [@That\_Don\_Guy](#): > > Most of the strong Sanders supporters I see on Facebook already have their laundry lists of how “the party screwed Bernie” out - for example, “The party intentionally understaffed polling places with few booths for Democratic voters in states/locations where Sanders is strongest so his voters would get tired of waiting, or see the long lines, and decide not to vote.” I detest Facebook so I don’t partake. But are you fucking serious? Are actual Sanders supporters literally saying this? Not Russian Trolls and [Brad Parscale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brad_Parscale)? ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2020, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/63 "2020-03-06T18:44:39Z")
> [@QuickSilver](#): > > I detest Facebook so I don’t partake. But are you fucking serious? Are actual Sanders supporters literally saying this? Not Russian Trolls and [Brad Parscale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brad_Parscale)? Wouldn’t surprise me given the grievances his supporters have made on these threads already. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2020, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/64 "2020-03-06T18:46:11Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > For what little it may be worth, 538 has dropped Sanders’ chance of [outright victory all the way down to 3%](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/after-super-tuesday-joe-biden-is-a-clear-favorite-to-win-the-nomination/)( with 10% of nobody getting a majority ). I guess the Democratic party now controls Fivethirtyeight, eh? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2020, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/65 "2020-03-06T19:13:31Z")
> [@QuickSilver](#): > > I detest Facebook so I don’t partake. But are you fucking serious? Are actual Sanders supporters literally saying this? Not Russian Trolls and [Brad Parscale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brad_Parscale)? Yes, they literally blame the DNC for closing Texas voting booths. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2020, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/66 "2020-03-06T19:21:52Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Yes, they literally blame the DNC for closing Texas voting booths. Didn’t take long for a [fellow doper and, I assume Bernie supporter, to help spread disinformation](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=22175354&postcount=92). ---
**Author:** ![Manwich](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e480ec/32.png) [@Manwich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Manwich)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2020, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/67 "2020-03-06T20:53:20Z")
Men, your support will help us win. Popular Sanders policies: Not kill American people with no money for doctors: > **[70 percent of Americans support ‘Medicare for all’ proposal](https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/412545-70-percent-of-americans-support-medicare-for-all-health-care/)** > > Seventy percent said they supported providing “Medicare for all,” also known as single-payer health care, for Americans, according to a new American Barometer survey. The poll, con… Not kill everyone with global warming and not let working class people die from no jobs: [http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/NPR\_PBS-NewsHour\_Marist-Poll\_USA-NOS-and-Tables\_1907190926.pdf#page=3](http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_1907190926.pdf#page=3) His policies are popular, just vote for him and spread the word. ---
**Author:** ![Manwich](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e480ec/32.png) [@Manwich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Manwich)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2020, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/68 "2020-03-06T20:55:17Z")
> [@QuickSilver](#): > > Didn’t take long for a [fellow doper and, I assume Bernie supporter, to help spread disinformation](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=22175354&postcount=92). You linked your own post. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2020, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/69 "2020-03-06T21:08:03Z")
> [@Manwich](#): > > You linked your own post. :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes: …which quoted the post in question. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2020, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/70 "2020-03-06T21:28:54Z")
**Manwich** , fighting for your preferred candidate is right now clearly a very fine thing to do. Just as a hypothetical exercise however, at what point would you conclude that it was time to start circling the wagons? Would you want the fight to be fought as hard and nasty as necessary up until it was literally mathematically impossible for Sanders to win even if won every remaining pledged delegate? Or even until the delegates actually vote because they are legally allowed to vote their conscience no matter how they are pledged … maybe en masse they _could_ have a realization that in good conscience they should vote Sanders. I’m thinking he needs to win decently well in Michigan to turn it around or it’s over. I am guessing you think otherwise. The race is very front loaded this time and by March 27 there is not much left. If he has lost Michigan, Florida, Ohio, and even Arizona (states that are critical general election ones) and also Illinois and Georgia as biggish ones, by then, would you want him to keep selling how bad Biden is and/or whatever narrative might make a case for him? There would still be Pennsylvania and New York as big states. In such a hypothetical what point would be the time to start shifting to a general election mode, in your opinion? Thanks ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2020, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/71 "2020-03-06T21:39:05Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > **Manwich** , fighting for your preferred candidate is right now clearly a very fine thing to do. > > Just as a hypothetical exercise however, at what point would you conclude that it was time to start circling the wagons? Would you want the fight to be fought as hard and nasty as necessary up until it was literally mathematically impossible for Sanders to win even if won every remaining pledged delegate? Or even until the delegates actually vote because they are legally allowed to vote their conscience no matter how they are pledged … maybe en masse they _could_ have a realization that in good conscience they should vote Sanders. > > I’m thinking he needs to win decently well in Michigan to turn it around or it’s over. I am guessing you think otherwise. > > The race is very front loaded this time and by March 27 there is not much left. If he has lost Michigan, Florida, Ohio, and even Arizona (states that are critical general election ones) and also Illinois and Georgia as biggish ones, by then, would you want him to keep selling how bad Biden is and/or whatever narrative might make a case for him? There would still be Pennsylvania and New York as big states. > > In such a hypothetical what point would be the time to start shifting to a general election mode, in your opinion? > > Thanks According to one poll, Biden may now be winning by double digits nationally. I’m in agreement: Bernie has to win in Michigan and Ohio to have any chance, which would seem not very likely at this point. It’ll be interesting to see the messaging coming out of Sanders’ campaign. They’ve been arguing that the one with the most delegates should win, but if he gets creamed in Michigan and Ohio, then that would almost guarantee that he’d lose the delegate count. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2020, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/72 "2020-03-06T23:50:32Z")
> [@Manwich](#): > > The problem is the popularity of Sanders’ policies compared to Biden’s. Sanders is steering the boat towards actually popular policy that will materially benefit regular Americans. Just the opposite, but thanks for playing. ---
**Author:** ![Manwich](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e480ec/32.png) [@Manwich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Manwich)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2020, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/73 "2020-03-07T00:05:13Z")
Why so much negativity in a thread about Bernie’s realistic path? Hypotheticals about his losing the nomination are a side issue. I think his best hope is to get people out to vote, convert centrists and keep building a popular, grass roots movement. Saying that now I think the answer to the hypothetical is to keep the momentum going and keep demanding that US politics has a voice for the uninsured, the non warmongers and basic majority views as linked above. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2020, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/74 "2020-03-07T00:47:53Z")
> [@Manwich](#): > > Why so much negativity in a thread about Bernie’s realistic path? Hypotheticals about his losing the nomination are a side issue. > > I think his best hope is to get people out to vote, convert centrists and keep building a popular, grass roots movement. > > Saying that now I think the answer to the hypothetical is to keep the momentum going and keep demanding that US politics has a voice for the uninsured, the non warmongers and basic majority views as linked above. Obviously I have no choice but to accept your answer/non-answer, but a discussion about his “realistic path” does _of course_ include consideration of what is no longer “realistic” when. As to negativity … well depends on what one’s desired outcome is, don’t it? 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2020, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/75 "2020-03-07T01:04:56Z")
Why is nobody asking what Biden’s path is, when he’s only slightly ahead of Sanders? ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2020, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/76 "2020-03-07T01:24:24Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Why is nobody asking what Biden’s path is, when he’s only slightly ahead of Sanders? Bidens path is mostly a lock. The remaining delegate rich states are all either southern states or rust belt states. Let’s just hope Biden doesn’t do something really stupid between now and November and that if he wins he is surrounded by very intelligent, competent people who can prevent bidens gullibility and declining cognitive abilities from being used to harm the democratic agenda. I could see Biden offering to cut social security, appoint conservative judges or abandon his agenda just to appear bipartisan. I hope his vp, chief of staff, senate majority leader etc all block this behavior on his part. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2020, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/77 "2020-03-07T01:27:00Z")
Because he has the polling lead, he has good states ahead of him, and it’s very hard to come back in a two way race with proportional primaries. Which is why 538 now has Bernie down to 2%. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2020, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/78 "2020-03-07T01:27:41Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Why is nobody asking what Biden’s path is, when he’s only slightly ahead of Sanders? …momentum is a thing. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2020, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/79 "2020-03-07T01:31:04Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Bidens path is mostly a lock. > > The remaining delegate rich states are all either southern states or rust belt states. > > Let’s just hope Biden doesn’t do something really stupid between now and November and that if he wins he is surrounded by very intelligent, competent people who can prevent bidens gullibility and declining cognitive abilities from being used to harm the democratic agenda. > > I could see Biden offering to cut social security, appoint conservative judges or abandon his agenda just to appear bipartisan. I hope his vp, chief of staff, senate majority leader etc all block this behavior on his part. The democratic agenda is regaining the white house. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2020, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/80 "2020-03-07T01:41:02Z")
Bernie only won a majority in one state: 50.8% in Vermont (after getting 86% in 2016). His next-best primary result was 36.1% in Colorado. He was able to win New Hampshire with 25% of the vote because the mainstream candidates were dividing the vote. One on one now, with no early voting banked, he doesn’t have a prayer. (It’s awesome!) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949.md?page=5)