# What's Bernie's remaining realistic path to the nomination? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 5, 2020, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949 "2020-03-05T05:16:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2020, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/141 "2020-03-09T18:28:45Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Total is now 664- 573, pretty close. > > Except you forget Bloomberg’s and Petes nearly 100 delegates to Biden. > > Now if Warren throws her’s to Bernie… I didn’t just because I’m not positive that the delegates pledged to dropout candidates necessarily are bound to vote as their candidate wants them to. I think by this time in 2 days the math is going to be prohibitively in favor of Biden. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2020, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/142 "2020-03-09T18:37:39Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > after next Tues there are only a few big states left to vote. NY, NJ , Penn are the main 3. the rest are smaller states or territories. Unless Sanders does well this week and next that is about it for his chances. And he lost all 3 of those in 2016. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2020, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/143 "2020-03-09T18:42:12Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > Sanders reminds me of a line from Robert the Bruce in Braveheart - “Now it’s just rage” Sanders is getting close to that point where he has no chance to win but keeps on raging. If he did not quit early last time I doubt he quits early this time. I can only hope that the magic email list finally fails to be a money machine. Bernie has his fanatics, but there’s got to be some of them that’ll realize it’s over and stop donating. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2020, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/144 "2020-03-09T18:52:10Z")
the probably with fanatics is they really hate to give up. Extreme example was Japanese soldiers in WW 2. On some islands like Iwo Jima pretty much every Japanese solider was killed. I think the only ones who survived were injured but some of those killed themselves. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/145 "2020-03-11T01:02:48Z")
It’s dead, Jim. ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 1:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/146 "2020-03-11T01:08:52Z")
[538’s take on Sander’s chances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/3-ways-the-next-2-weeks-could-go-even-the-best-case-scenario-for-sanders-doesnt-look-so-great/). Basically, not good; > [@](#): > > So let’s get more creative in helping Sanders. Let’s say Sanders beats his projections by 10 points tonight … except in Michigan, where he beats the forecast by 24 points and narrowly wins the state! (Hey, it happened in 2016!) As a result, Sanders gets a big bounce in the remaining contests over the next two weeks, beating our projections by 20 percentage points in all of them, except in Florida and Arizona where the presence of a large amount of early voting curbs his gains to 15 points. Here’s what that scenario looks like: > > Scenario 3: Sanders wins Michigan (!) and surges (!) > Delegate projections with anywhere from a net of 10 to 24 percentage points\* added to Sanders’s projected vote share, according to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast as of 9:00 a.m. Eastern on March 10 > > \<\\> > > Even with this massive overperformance, Sanders would … still be losing ground to Biden! He’d lose a net of nine delegates tonight and then another 94 in the rest of the states through Georgia, putting him 183 delegates behind Biden after March 24. > > Sanders would then need to win 61 percent of the remaining delegates after Georgia to eventually claim a majority of pledged delegates, or 57 percent of them for a plurality. Also, note that even in this massive surge scenario, Sanders might not actually win all that many states, because Biden’s lead exceeds 20 points in states like Florida, Georgia and Ohio, which would give him enough of a buffer to withstand a 20-point Sanders surge. It’s not done, but if I were a betting man, I wouldn’t bet on Sanders. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/147 "2020-03-11T01:19:39Z")
NM ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/148 "2020-03-11T02:14:54Z")
> [@galen\_ubal](#): > > [538’s take on Sander’s chances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/3-ways-the-next-2-weeks-could-go-even-the-best-case-scenario-for-sanders-doesnt-look-so-great/). > Basically, not good; > It’s not done, but if I were a betting man, I wouldn’t bet on Sanders. You realize that even the scenario you quoted required Bernie to do a whole lot better tonight than he in fact did? ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/149 "2020-03-11T02:23:36Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > You realize that even the scenario you quoted required Bernie to do a whole lot better tonight than he in fact did? I do - I wrote that up and posted it just before I saw that Michigan was called for Biden. 😛 As of right now, Sanders’ chances are a lot worse, about like the first scenario in the above-linked article. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/150 "2020-03-11T02:52:52Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > Ah, yes, the same old Bernie Bro nonsense of calling everyone who isn’t Bernie a Republican. A million dollar bottle of champagne won’t taste as sweet as the tears of the Bros when Biden kicks Bernie’s ass through the rest of the primary season. I honestly do not know whose side you are on. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 7:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/151 "2020-03-11T07:05:49Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > I honestly do not know whose side you are on. I was a strong supporter of Pete Buttigieg. My candidate didn’t win and thus I moved over to Biden. I have detested Bernie Sanders since way before that unfunny clown decided he wanted to run for President. ---
**Author:** ![Mrs\_McGinty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/6bbea6/32.png) [@Mrs\_McGinty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mrs_McGinty)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 8:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/152 "2020-03-11T08:03:59Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > I was a strong supporter of Pete Buttigieg. My candidate didn’t win and thus I moved over to Biden. I have detested Bernie Sanders since way before that unfunny clown decided he wanted to run for President. Do you think that continually smacking on Bernie supporters will help bring them behind Biden in the real election? Because from where I’m sitting, it looks much more likely to help the Trump campaign’s divide and conquer strategy. There’ll be plenty of time for all sides to vent and recriminate once Trump is either vanquished or returned. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 1:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/153 "2020-03-11T13:22:15Z")
> [@Mrs\_McGinty](#): > > Do you think that continually smacking on Bernie supporters will help bring them behind Biden in the real election? I think that Sanders supporters are going to do what they’re going to do and those who choose to remain home weren’t reachable anyway. If your whole schtick is “XYZ is a human right” and then you decline to vote the primary barrier to XYZ out because someone on the internet called Sanders an “unfunny clown”, you were never serious about XYZ in the first place. It was only about attention-seeking via neckbeard arguments about XYZ and trying to inflate your own relevance as a Sanders supporter that everyone better be nice to. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/154 "2020-03-11T13:26:00Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > I think that Sanders supporters are going to do what they’re going to do and those who choose to remain home weren’t reachable anyway. If your whole schtick is “XYZ is a human right” and then you decline to vote the primary barrier to XYZ out because someone on the internet called Sanders an “unfunny clown”, you were never serious about XYZ in the first place. It was only about attention-seeking via neckbeard arguments about XYZ and trying to inflate your own relevance as a Sanders supporter that everyone better be nice to. Some might be like this, but some aren’t. I think some are gettable - and some are young folks who may or may not vote, but will probably wait until election day and decide based on how they feel that day. I think there are things Biden can do to make them more likely to feel like voting. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/155 "2020-03-11T13:33:25Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > I think that Sanders supporters are going to do what they’re going to do and those who choose to remain home weren’t reachable anyway. If your whole schtick is “XYZ is a human right” and then you decline to vote the primary barrier to XYZ out because someone on the internet called Sanders an “unfunny clown”, you were never serious about XYZ in the first place. It was only about attention-seeking via neckbeard arguments about XYZ and trying to inflate your own relevance as a Sanders supporter that everyone better be nice to. Ditto that for the Enlightened Centrists. There is a certain species of online male who revels in the trope of “Kiss my ring or get 4 more years of Trump.” Dude, if you’re wielding Trump as an extortion weapon, guess what you are. The good news is I think that, apart from high-profile dilldongs like Max Boot and Michael Tracey, this phenomenon is much, much rarer than the shady Macedonian propaganda farms would have us believe. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/156 "2020-03-11T13:44:13Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Some might be like this, but some aren’t. I think some are gettable - and some are young folks who may or may not vote, but will probably wait until election day and decide based on how they feel that day. I think there are things Biden can do to make them more likely to feel like voting. Sure, but that’s more of a campaign issue, not a “everyone else needs to treat them with kid gloves” issue. A good number of these people couldn’t be bothered to go out and vote for _Sanders_; they’re in it now just to get jerked off, not because they’re actually going to get out in November and vote for Biden. This doesn’t mean we all need to find Sanders supporters and throw rocks at them but, at the same time, acting like it’s threatening the election to say you thought Sanders was an “unfunny clown” isn’t any way to live. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/157 "2020-03-11T13:54:05Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Some might be like this, but some aren’t. I think some are gettable - and some are young folks who may or may not vote, but will probably wait until election day and decide based on how they feel that day. I think there are things Biden can do to make them more likely to feel like voting. You have any examples of prominent Sanders supporters out in the wild expressing that feeling? They are waiting on his veep pick to support Biden? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/158 "2020-03-11T14:11:28Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > You have any examples of prominent Sanders supporters out in the wild expressing that feeling? They are waiting on his veep pick to support Biden? Not prominent supporters (though I haven’t looked). A couple of my acquaintances have said they’ll vote for Biden if he picks Abrams, and another one said they will if he picks Warren. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/159 "2020-03-11T14:54:25Z")
I think **iiandyiiii** is on to something in that Bernie supporters I think this time really do want to support Biden. But they need some sort of cover, and a young more progressive VP might be just enough to say “OK, I don’t like Joe but maybe he’ll die and I can get Warren/Abrams/whoever”. Someone with a bit more pizzazz than Klobuchar - someone you can pin some hopes and dreams on. And yes, saying mean things about Bernie is not very helpful at this point. It’s sort of kicking a man while he’s down (and his supporters are down). Fortunately, Biden was much more kind and positive in his speech last night - hopefully that will continue and we can get united behind the presumptive candidate. But then again I’m not sure calling anybody an “unfunny clown” (unless it’s actually literally a clown that isn’t funny) is a particularly helpful way to win an election. That’s why rather than focusing on the invective against Trump I would focus more on his incompetence and lack of real accomplishments. I’m not sure calling him names is nearly as effective at pointing out what he’s done, not done, or tried to do. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949/160 "2020-03-11T15:00:47Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > But then again I’m not sure calling anybody an “unfunny clown” (unless it’s actually literally a clown that isn’t funny) is a particularly helpful way to win an election. That’s why rather than focusing on the invective against Trump I would focus more on his incompetence and lack of real accomplishments. I think there’s some cognitive dissonance with that approach. Maybe he is incompetent and maybe he didn’t have the accomplishments he touted, but the people who voted for him still want those things to happen and obviously it’s not going to be Biden who does them. What are you gonna say - “Trump didn’t give you your wall after all, but Biden will”? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-bernies-remaining-realistic-path-to-the-nomination/848949.md?page=9)