# What's going to happen with marijuana economics? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 6, 2013, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-going-to-happen-with-marijuana-economics/649508 "2013-02-06T18:26:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Shiloh2013](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e79b87/32.png) [@Shiloh2013](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shiloh2013)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2013, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-going-to-happen-with-marijuana-economics/649508/1 "2013-02-06T18:26:03Z")
Much talk lately about governments, fed and state, getting into the cannabis business for the taxes. Now a new article about unions planning to be heavily involved. Everybody is lining up for their piece of the pie. How will this all shake out? ---
**Author:** ![Shiloh2013](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e79b87/32.png) [@Shiloh2013](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shiloh2013)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2013, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-going-to-happen-with-marijuana-economics/649508/2 "2013-02-06T19:23:26Z")
There is already serious discussion at the federal level about a Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Marijuana and Firearms. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2013, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-going-to-happen-with-marijuana-economics/649508/3 "2013-02-06T19:25:44Z")
I haven’t seen the unions connection. Help a feller out? ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2013, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-going-to-happen-with-marijuana-economics/649508/4 "2013-02-06T19:26:11Z")
Nobody knows how it will all shake out. Except the shake will definitely be worth less than the bud. I find it interesting that a lot of anti-tax nuts suddenly like the idea of taxing marijuana. ---
**Author:** ![snowthx](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowthx/32/10660_2.png) [@snowthx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snowthx)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2013, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-going-to-happen-with-marijuana-economics/649508/5 "2013-02-06T19:29:08Z")
Where is the tobacco industry in this? ISTM they would want to be a player, in that they already have the infrastructure to grow, process, and package the stuff, and they already exist as tax-paying entities. Perhaps only license them to grow it and sell it commercially. Maybe time to throw them a bone? FTR I do not smoke. ---
**Author:** ![Shiloh2013](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e79b87/32.png) [@Shiloh2013](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shiloh2013)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2013, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-going-to-happen-with-marijuana-economics/649508/6 "2013-02-06T19:40:51Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > I haven’t seen the unions connection. Help a feller out? Here ya go: [http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/06/us-usa-marijuana-unions-idUSBRE91507E20130206](http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/06/us-usa-marijuana-unions-idUSBRE91507E20130206) ---
**Author:** ![Dallas\_Jones](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dallas_jones/32/3277_2.png) [@Dallas\_Jones](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dallas_Jones)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2013, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-going-to-happen-with-marijuana-economics/649508/7 "2013-02-06T19:55:57Z")
This is probably a IMHO question. But, in order to eliminate the illegal underground economy of pot the legal stuff will need to be affordable and accessible. Or society will not cash in tax wise and the illegal economy will remain. If the legal outlets provide a cheap price, good quality pot and few roadblocks, the legal pot will eliminate the underground market and you can tax away at it. But you do that later, after the legal economy has displaced the illegal market. If governments get too greedy with expected tax income right out of the gate then these initiatives will fail to provide the expected tax revenue and the underground economy will continue to thrive. ---
**Author:** ![snowthx](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowthx/32/10660_2.png) [@snowthx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snowthx)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2013, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-going-to-happen-with-marijuana-economics/649508/8 "2013-02-06T20:04:17Z")
> [@Dallas\_Jones](#): > > This is probably a IMHO question. > > But, in order to eliminate the illegal underground economy of pot the legal stuff will need to be affordable and accessible. Or society will not cash in tax wise and the illegal economy will remain. > > If the legal outlets provide a cheap price, good quality pot and few roadblocks, the legal pot will eliminate the underground market and you can tax away at it. But you do that later, after the legal economy has displaced the illegal market. > > If governments get too greedy with expected tax income right out of the gate then these initiatives will fail to provide the expected tax revenue and the underground economy will continue to thrive. I agree with this. How many people grow their own tobacco for cigarettes? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2013, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-going-to-happen-with-marijuana-economics/649508/9 "2013-02-06T20:13:12Z")
Reported for forum change. ---
**Author:** ![Shiloh2013](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e79b87/32.png) [@Shiloh2013](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shiloh2013)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2013, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-going-to-happen-with-marijuana-economics/649508/10 "2013-02-06T20:20:47Z")
I think the expectation is that the price will remain about what it is today, but the various levels of government will be taking the profit. Also, I assume it would have to be legal to grow for personal use, as it is with making wine and beer. ---
**Author:** ![shiftless](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9c0ed/32.png) [@shiftless](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/shiftless)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2013, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-going-to-happen-with-marijuana-economics/649508/11 "2013-02-06T20:58:05Z")
> [@snowthx](#): > > Where is the tobacco industry in this? ISTM they would want to be a player, in that they already have the infrastructure to grow, process, and package the stuff, and they already exist as tax-paying entities. Perhaps only license them to grow it and sell it commercially. Maybe time to throw them a bone? The tobacco industry don’t actually grow the tobacco, they make and sell tobacco products. Farmers grow the basic product. I don’t doubt for a second that big tobacco will step up to process legal pot into whatever forms we want, and they’ll tell us it makes us cooler, thinner and more sophisticated too. I don’t see any reason the government should throw any bones to big industries. If they want to license certain farmers to grow it, in a quota system for example, it wouldn’t be much different from other crops and I’de be cool with that if they also allow small, home growers, kind of like they did with homebrewing. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2013, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-going-to-happen-with-marijuana-economics/649508/12 "2013-02-06T21:41:35Z")
Since this requires speculation, let’s move it over to IMHO. Colibri General Questions Moderator ---
**Author:** ![Senegoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senegoid/32/6606_2.png) [@Senegoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Senegoid)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2013, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-going-to-happen-with-marijuana-economics/649508/13 "2013-02-06T23:36:07Z")
> [@Dallas\_Jones](#): > > If governments get too greedy with expected tax income right out of the gate then these initiatives will fail to provide the expected tax revenue and the underground economy will continue to thrive. I noticed this too. According to one of the recent (yesterday) news articles I read, one of the new bills in Congress specifies a federal tax of 50% on the (retail?) purchase price. I don’t see where that’s going to put the marijuana black market out of business. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2013, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-going-to-happen-with-marijuana-economics/649508/14 "2013-02-06T23:43:08Z")
> [@Dallas\_Jones](#): > > This is probably a IMHO question. > > But, in order to eliminate the illegal underground economy of pot the legal stuff will need to be affordable and accessible. Or society will not cash in tax wise and the illegal economy will remain. > > If the legal outlets provide a cheap price, good quality pot and few roadblocks, the legal pot will eliminate the underground market and you can tax away at it. But you do that later, after the legal economy has displaced the illegal market. > > If governments get too greedy with expected tax income right out of the gate then these initiatives will fail to provide the expected tax revenue and the underground economy will continue to thrive. Another illustration of the Laugher Curve. OK, but if you were stoned you’d think that was funny. ---
**Author:** ![Senegoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senegoid/32/6606_2.png) [@Senegoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Senegoid)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2013, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-going-to-happen-with-marijuana-economics/649508/15 "2013-02-06T23:46:17Z")
There was a common notion (at the urban legend level, at least) back in the 1980’s or 1990’s that all the Big Tobacco companies, drooling in anticipation that pot would be legalized Real Soon Now, were staking out their territory by registering brand name trademarks, just so they would have them in place when the time comes. Of course, there was also a competing common notion that this was all just baloney. Maybe now they’ll really start doing this. (If they haven’t already :rolleyes: ) Here is a conundrum. Fighting the Evil Tobacco Companies has been (I think) a largely progressive liberal hobby for a good many years, as opposed to the Evil Conservative Republican Corporate Lapdogs who staunchly defended the tobacco industry’s Freedom to Pollute Everyone Else’s Atmosphere for Profit. But legalization of pot has also been an entertaining progressive liberal hobby for a long time too. I see a contradiction there. Do progressive liberals (yes, that includes me) want to see the Big Evil Tobacco Industry grow to become the Big Evil Marijuana Industry as well, in all the ways that we’ve always seen Big Tobacco as evil? Myself, I’m all for decriminalizing pot, but I don’t want to see it super-commercialized like tobacco has been. ---
**Author:** ![Senegoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senegoid/32/6606_2.png) [@Senegoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Senegoid)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2013, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-going-to-happen-with-marijuana-economics/649508/16 "2013-02-06T23:53:19Z")
(Missed edit window just above.) I meant to add some examples of ways we’ve seen Big Tobacco as being evil: e.g., heavily marketing to kids; marketing on macho/cool/sexappeal; manipulating ingredients for maximal (habit-forming?) potency; lobbying _ad infinitum_ for every kind of legalized perk/taxbreak/etc.; funding allegedly “independent” medical studies; etc. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2013, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-going-to-happen-with-marijuana-economics/649508/17 "2013-02-06T23:57:56Z")
> [@Shiloh2013](#): > > Here ya go: > > [http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/06/us-usa-marijuana-unions-idUSBRE91507E20130206](http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/06/us-usa-marijuana-unions-idUSBRE91507E20130206) Linky no worky. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2013, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-going-to-happen-with-marijuana-economics/649508/18 "2013-02-06T23:59:14Z")
> [@Senegoid](#): > > I see a contradiction there. Do progressive liberals (yes, that includes me) want to see the Big Evil Tobacco Industry grow to become the Big Evil Marijuana Industry as well, in all the ways that we’ve always seen Big Tobacco as evil? > > Myself, I’m all for decriminalizing pot, but I don’t want to see it super-commercialized like tobacco has been. And I don’t want to see it marketed with addictive additives like they put in cigarettes. ---
**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2013, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-going-to-happen-with-marijuana-economics/649508/19 "2013-02-06T23:59:44Z")
> [@snowthx](#): > > Where is the tobacco industry in this? ISTM they would want to be a player, in that they already have the infrastructure to grow, process, and package the stuff, and they already exist as tax-paying entities. Not necessarily, assuming that marijuana achieves the same level of legality as tobacco. Tobacco remains a profitable industry, and unlike tobacco, marijuana does not require any processing beyond weighing and packaging. It’s completely legal for you or me to grow our own tobacco, but tobacco requires curing, drying, and maybe some additional processing before it can be rendered into its final product and it’s not worth your everyday tobacco user to go to all that trouble. Marijuana OTOH can be used directly off the plant, and, if memory serves, many consumers prefer to prepare their own final product. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2013, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-going-to-happen-with-marijuana-economics/649508/20 "2013-02-07T00:12:52Z")
> [@DCnDC](#): > > Not necessarily, assuming that marijuana achieves the same level of legality as tobacco. > > Tobacco remains a profitable industry, and unlike tobacco, marijuana does not require any processing beyond weighing and packaging. > > It’s completely legal for you or me to grow our own tobacco, but tobacco requires curing, drying, and maybe some additional processing before it can be rendered into its final product and it’s not worth your everyday tobacco user to go to all that trouble. > > Marijuana OTOH can be used directly off the plant, and, if memory serves, many consumers prefer to prepare their own final product. This is incorrect. Marijuana has to be dried and cured to make what the public used to. Straight off the plant it won’t burn, and tastes a lot like smoking Tums. The process is far less intensive than the processing required for tobacco, though. ETA: The process for marijuana is not without it’s pitfalls, either. Cure it poorly, and you can get all kinds of awful tasting mold, or end up with it permanently having that “Tums” taste. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-going-to-happen-with-marijuana-economics/649508.md?page=2)