# What's happening on Feb 11, Mr. Ahmadinejad? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 6, 2010, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-happening-on-feb-11-mr-ahmadinejad/527952 "2010-02-06T21:26:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2010, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-happening-on-feb-11-mr-ahmadinejad/527952/1 "2010-02-06T21:26:50Z")
This was locked out by a Mod for incorrect forum but I was interested enough to re-post it here. I’m putting it here because it’s political in nature and has a debating quality to it. President Ahmadinajad has eluded to a global event on February 11 which is the date of the Iranian Revolution. From [here](http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/286806): \*\*February 11 marks the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, but Iran’s president is now threatening the west that the 11th will mark a strike against ‘global arrogance.’ With Iranian opposition leaders urging Iran’s citizens to mark the February 11 anniversary of the Islamic Revolution as a symbol of freedom and of broad protest against the regime, Iran’s President Ahmadinejad warned western powers that he intends to strike against their “global arrogance” on February 11th. \*\* In a [possibly related item](http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60U18R20100131)the United States has expanded missile defenses in the Gulf. Are these related and do you think Ahmadinejad is planning an attack on Israel/US or is he referring to outside influences on the political dissonance that is currently going on in Iran. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2010, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-happening-on-feb-11-mr-ahmadinejad/527952/2 "2010-02-06T21:34:41Z")
I think “strike” in this context means skip work to protest, not fire rockets. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Crap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.crap/32/3131_2.png) [@Dr.Crap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Crap)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2010, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-happening-on-feb-11-mr-ahmadinejad/527952/3 "2010-02-06T21:36:32Z")
You don’t announce the date of your attacking someone. Maybe the regime will organize a fuck-all-y’all parade. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2010, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-happening-on-feb-11-mr-ahmadinejad/527952/4 "2010-02-06T21:41:49Z")
The answer to global arrogance is not local stupidity. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2010, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-happening-on-feb-11-mr-ahmadinejad/527952/5 "2010-02-06T21:46:55Z")
Should have registered my take on it. I took it to mean he was going to crush political protesters who rally on the 11th and blame it on Western attempts to instigate anarchy. However, he’s a crazy nut job who thinks there is an Imam waiting to rise again and usher in chaos so I wouldn’t be surprised if he does something insanely stupid. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2010, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-happening-on-feb-11-mr-ahmadinejad/527952/6 "2010-02-08T20:39:42Z")
It’s not just the President of Iran who is making threatening statements. Since the President is considered a figure head and not the true power of Iran his statements have always been taken with a grain of salt. Now the [Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei](http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.e0b08e9e64fe15a987c1cf73dd8c5fe2.521&show_article=1) is making threatening statements. He said on Monday that Iran is set to deliver a “punch” that will stun world powers during this week’s 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution. ---
**Author:** ![Dick\_Dastardly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c4cdca/32.png) [@Dick\_Dastardly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dick_Dastardly)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2010, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-happening-on-feb-11-mr-ahmadinejad/527952/7 "2010-02-08T21:39:57Z")
It’s OK, you can stop wetting the bed now : Iran will unveil its new space projects during a ten-day ceremony beginning Monday to mark the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution in the country. Tehran has reached self-sufficiency in launching complicated electronic, optic and communications technology, Defence Minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi said at the inauguration of the ‘Ten-Day Dawn’. The same trend of development is in process in more sensitive technologies, including space systems which use highly sophisticated electronic devices, he said. The Iranian government also disclosed its 36 electronic and communications projects at the beginning of the ceremony, Fars news agency reported. ‘Tolou (rise) and Mesbah (Lantern) satellites as well as Simorq satellite carrier engine will be unveiled in the Ten-Day Dawn,’ Vahidi had said Wednesday on the sidelines of a cabinet meeting. [http://story.irishsun.com/index.php/ct/9/cid/2411cd3571b4f088/id/596067/cs/1/](http://story.irishsun.com/index.php/ct/9/cid/2411cd3571b4f088/id/596067/cs/1/) ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2010, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-happening-on-feb-11-mr-ahmadinejad/527952/8 "2010-02-08T21:47:03Z")
> [@Dick\_Dastardly](#): > > It’s OK, you can stop wetting the bed now : > > Iran will unveil its new space projects during a ten-day ceremony beginning Monday to mark the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution in the country. Tehran has reached self-sufficiency in launching complicated electronic, optic and communications technology, Defence Minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi said at the inauguration of the ‘Ten-Day Dawn’. The same trend of development is in process in more sensitive technologies, including space systems which use highly sophisticated electronic devices, he said. The Iranian government also disclosed its 36 electronic and communications projects at the beginning of the ceremony, Fars news agency reported. ‘Tolou (rise) and Mesbah (Lantern) satellites as well as Simorq satellite carrier engine will be unveiled in the Ten-Day Dawn,’ Vahidi had said Wednesday on the sidelines of a cabinet meeting. > > [http://story.irishsun.com/index.php/ct/9/cid/2411cd3571b4f088/id/596067/cs/1/](http://story.irishsun.com/index.php/ct/9/cid/2411cd3571b4f088/id/596067/cs/1/) How is this a stunning punch? They’ve had an ongoing program for years. ---
**Author:** ![Dick\_Dastardly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c4cdca/32.png) [@Dick\_Dastardly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dick_Dastardly)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2010, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-happening-on-feb-11-mr-ahmadinejad/527952/9 "2010-02-08T21:52:19Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > How is this a stunning punch? They’ve had an ongoing program for years. The Iranian regime relies on keeping its base, Iranian religious conservatives, fired up and scared of the Great Satan. Everything they do like this is presented as a great victory in the ongoing battle against the GS. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2010, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-happening-on-feb-11-mr-ahmadinejad/527952/10 "2010-02-08T22:15:35Z")
> [@Dick\_Dastardly](#): > > The Iranian regime relies on keeping its base, Iranian religious conservatives, fired up and scared of the Great Satan. Everything they do like this is presented as a great victory in the ongoing battle against the GS. Of that there is no doubt. It’s a standard political tool to create an external nemesis as a diversion from internal problems. As I stated earlier I think this is likely a threat against internal protesters whose actions will be blamed on Western external provocation. But there’s 5% of me that wonders if they’re planning on striking Israel or something equally stupid. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2010, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-happening-on-feb-11-mr-ahmadinejad/527952/11 "2010-02-08T22:17:10Z")
Iran could simply test a missile by firing it over Israel in an attempt to drive up the price of oil which would shore up a sagging economy. ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2010, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-happening-on-feb-11-mr-ahmadinejad/527952/12 "2010-02-08T22:32:32Z")
I have little doubt that the regime would like to distract the population from their economic problems by building up the idea of an imminent attack by evil oustide forces, but the trick is to make it sound plausible without actually drawing an attack, ya know? My bet’s on test-firing of a missile, perhaps of a longer-range type than Iran has demonstrated previously. Whether one think the Iranian leadership is “crazy” or not, I seriously doubt that they fail to recognize that any real military or quasi-military strike against the US, Israel or NATO countries will almost certainly result in military action against Iran. ---
**Author:** ![Dick\_Dastardly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c4cdca/32.png) [@Dick\_Dastardly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dick_Dastardly)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2010, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-happening-on-feb-11-mr-ahmadinejad/527952/13 "2010-02-08T22:49:06Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > Of that there is no doubt. It’s a standard political tool to create an external nemesis as a diversion from internal problems. > > As I stated earlier I think this is likely a threat against internal protesters whose actions will be blamed on Western external provocation. But there’s 5% of me that wonders if they’re planning on striking Israel or something equally stupid. [http://www.uncommonthought.com/mtblog/assets\_c/2009/09/USBasesMidEast-thumb-536x491-28.jpg](http://www.uncommonthought.com/mtblog/assets_c/2009/09/USBasesMidEast-thumb-536x491-28.jpg) The stars on this map represent US military bases. (got it from google images, my posting it doesn’t mean I agree with anything on the site it came from, not a word of which I’ve ever read, but if you google image iran us bases you’ll get a bunch of similar maps). Bearing in mind this map, the fact that Iran’s military budget is less than 1% of America’s, and the fact that since they overthrew the dictator we imposed on them after their democratically elected government had the temerity to nationalise their own oilfields in 1951, and that since they overthrew him we’ve put them under punitive sanctions, constantly threatened them, worked to overthrow the new government, shot one of their civilian airliners down etc., who do you think can legitimately feel more threatened by the other, Iran or America? ---
**Author:** ![Uzi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/91b2a8/32.png) [@Uzi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Uzi)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2010, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-happening-on-feb-11-mr-ahmadinejad/527952/14 "2010-02-09T00:31:51Z")
> [@Dick\_Dastardly](#): > > … who do you think can legitimately feel more threatened by the other, Iran or America? Gee, if I was Iran I’d make sure that someone as ‘powerful’ and ‘evil’ as the US wasn’t pissed at me for any reason rather than continually flicking their noses. You know, become an ally rather than an enemy? I wonder why they don’t do that? ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2010, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-happening-on-feb-11-mr-ahmadinejad/527952/15 "2010-02-09T00:42:25Z")
> [@Dick\_Dastardly](#): > > [http://www.uncommonthought.com/mtblog/assets\_c/2009/09/USBasesMidEast-thumb-536x491-28.jpg](http://www.uncommonthought.com/mtblog/assets_c/2009/09/USBasesMidEast-thumb-536x491-28.jpg) > > The stars on this map represent US military bases. (got it from google images, my posting it doesn’t mean I agree with anything on the site it came from, not a word of which I’ve ever read, but if you google image iran us bases you’ll get a bunch of similar maps). > > Bearing in mind this map, the fact that Iran’s military budget is less than 1% of America’s, and the fact that since they overthrew the dictator we imposed on them after their democratically elected government had the temerity to nationalise their own oilfields in 1951, and that since they overthrew him we’ve put them under punitive sanctions, constantly threatened them, worked to overthrow the new government, shot one of their civilian airliners down etc., who do you think can legitimately feel more threatened by the other, Iran or America? Soooooo… I have no idea how this is relevant to Iran making statements that sound like a threat. ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2010, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-happening-on-feb-11-mr-ahmadinejad/527952/16 "2010-02-09T01:05:38Z")
Hrm, so: [ > [@](#): > > 1. Iran has informed the Agency about the construction of a new pilot enrichment plant at Qom, FFEP. Iran’s failure to inform the Agency, in accordance with the provisions of the revised Code 3.1, of the decision to construct, or to authorize construction of, a new facility as soon as such a decision is taken, and to submit information as the design is developed, is inconsistent with its obligations under the Subsidiary Arrangements to its Safeguards Agreement. Moreover, Iran’s delay in submitting such information to the Agency does not contribute to the building of confidence. While the Agency has confirmed that the plant corresponds to the design information provided by Iran, Iran’s explanation about the purpose of the facility and the chronology of its design and construction requires further clarification. > […] > 2. Contrary to the request of the Board of Governors and the requirements of the Security Council, Iran has neither implemented the Additional Protocol nor cooperated with the Agency in connection with the remaining issues of concern, which need to be clarified to exclude the possibility of military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme. It is now well over a year since the Agency was last able to engage Iran in discussions about these outstanding issues. Unless Iran implements the Additional Protocol and, through substantive dialogue, clarifies the outstanding issues to the satisfaction of the Agency, the Agency will not be in a position to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran. ]([http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2009/gov2009-74.pdf](http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2009/gov2009-74.pdf)) Yeah, I don’t see a problem with Iran getting the ability to launch things into an orbit where they can then have an intercontinental ballistic trajectory. ---
**Author:** ![Dick\_Dastardly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c4cdca/32.png) [@Dick\_Dastardly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dick_Dastardly)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2010, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-happening-on-feb-11-mr-ahmadinejad/527952/17 "2010-02-09T01:59:06Z")
Feel free to wet the bed over the Iranian threat to the rest of the world as much as you want. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2010, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-happening-on-feb-11-mr-ahmadinejad/527952/18 "2010-02-09T02:09:34Z")
> [@Dick\_Dastardly](#): > > Feel free to wet the bed over the Iranian threat to the rest of the world as much as you want. Feel free to post an actual opinion instead of your childish bed-wetting nonsense. ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2010, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-happening-on-feb-11-mr-ahmadinejad/527952/19 "2010-02-09T02:39:52Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > Feel free to post an actual opinion instead of your childish bed-wetting nonsense. Oh, I don’t know, I’d say that was an actual opinion, albeit not stated in the most diplomatic manner. I am curious, though. There are quite a lot of people in the US who believe a pre-emptive military strike against Iran is a necessary thing. Would you happen to be one of those people, **Magiver**? ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2010, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-happening-on-feb-11-mr-ahmadinejad/527952/20 "2010-02-09T02:47:07Z")
There’s nothing _to say_. (And non-diplomatically? The response was essentially "I don’t like that you’re using facts, you’re a bed wetter!!!) The IAEA has been quite clear that Iran is in deliberate non-compliance and that, as such, they cannot verify non-diversion of nuclear materials or that Iran doesn’t have a weaponization component to its nuclear program. The recently NIE report confirmed that Iran _had had_ a nuclear weapons program and that its continued mothballing could only be stated with a moderate degree of confidence, and not a high degree of confidence because there wasn’t sufficient information to make such a blanket statement (which they did make about other things in the same report). The worry, I would argue, is not even so much that Iran will launch of a first strike (although the claim that the possibility of that is 0.0% is… curious.) but that with a dynamic of MAD sets up an Iran that is free to repeat events like the Khobar Tower Bombing, the Marine Barracks Bombing, etc… It gives the foremost sponsor of international terrorism and unacceptable safety net. They’ve already had Hezbollah [nearly touched off a civil war by installing a regional telecom network](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7385733.stm)that allowed Iranian proxy forces to communicate directly and to organize/plan as a unified force [as well as spy on the legal government of the area.](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7385733.stm) The idea that there’s no reason to worry if “all” that can happen is that Iran can set about spreading Khomenism again and take over a country here or there while shipping ever more advanced weapons to Hamas and Hezbollah is, unsettling, to say the least. During the last war that Israel fought with Hezbollah they had APC’s and standard military hardware. And we’ve already seen how the Iranian power structure enforces Khomenism at home. Of course, we don’t know for sure whether Iran does or doesn’t have a nuclear weapons program, and that’s part of the issue. If Iran would just institute the Additional Protocols we could verify total non-diversion and, hell, be on the way to yawning when they display technology that can be a precursor for ICBM’s. Until then, those who can’t really argue with the facts can always talk about how those in the fact-based community are wetting their beds, or what have you. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-happening-on-feb-11-mr-ahmadinejad/527952.md?page=2)