What's the Best - And Worst - That Could Happen If Saddam Stays In Power?

Great Debates
21

Well considering that war will happen (it is just a matter of time):

Best case scenario: Irak turns into a new Vietnam, thousands of americans die (again) until at last the american people realize (all over again) that their political leaders are crooks, the war meaningless and that it should stop. Hopefully after the debacle a new era of peace, prosperity and international cooperation results from bush’s madness.

Worst case scenario: America after another blietzkrieg destroy the Irakies, after acomplishing their objectives they move agaisnt their next victim (iran or north korea) and Irak turns into a new new afghanistan (were the taliban warlords were reaplaced by plain warlords).

Likely scenario: No one really knows, those that are religious should pray because since 9/11 the whole planet is riding a tiger.

22

Cyberpundit:

Can the insults, buddy. If the U.S. can make alliances with the Soviets in WWII, and al-Qaida can sign cease-fires with Iraq and get material comfort with them, then Iran can aid Iraq if they both feel if it’s in their mutual interest.

Remember what happened to Saddam’s air force during the first Gulf War? It turned tail and ran - into IRAN. And was given safe harbor.

It’s condescending to Arabs and/or muslims to believe that they are that factious and aren’t capable of shifting alliances the way the rest of the world does.

23

[semi-hijack]

Depending on how you draw the borders of Eastern Europe, I think one would be hard-pressed to prove that all countries there are “democracies.” They may have nominally democratically structured political systems, but there’s not so much resemblance between the way things are run in, say, Azerbaijan and the way they are run in anything most Americans or West Europeans would consider a democracy. But that’s a whole other thread, if not dozens.

24

Sam - sorry, but if you are trying to prove a point (that you did indeed have a basis for your assertions in the first paragraph), you didn’t do yourself any favors in this last post. An al-Qaieda “ceasefire” with Iraq? “Material comfort”? These are figments of your imagination: although the administration has tried to make some references, there is no evidence whatsoever of what you claim. If so, please give some credible cites; in all of the arguments on these boards in the past 3 months, I have seen nothing but conjecture.

In point of fact, some of the Iraqi air force did fly to Iran, only to be confiscated by the Iranians. This was not an “alliance” in any way: Saddam had to remove at least some of his aircraft from harm’s way, and Jordan, though sympathetic, was heavily covered by Coalition air patrols. Feeling that at least the Iranians might feel some “brotherly compassion” against the onslaught, the evacuation to Iraq was attempted: approximately 1/6 of his military aircraft eventually made it to Iranian airfields. To this day, none have been returned. I don’t know where you get an alliance out of this, but there was nothing more than a misunderstanding, at least on the part of the Iraqis.

Cite here: http://www.aerospaceweb.org/question/history/q0071.shtml

While I don’t want to start insulting anyone, as I have stated in previous threads, my thought in joining the SDMB was that it was to “fight” ignorance, not promote it. And yes, I would have to agree with Cyberpundit that you are uninformed on issues pertaining to the Middle East in general; you wanted intelligent, realistic answers to your OP, and you have them. Yet I don’t see your counter-argument appearing here as yet, though you have gotten touchy about a pretty “fantastic” statement that you made regarding a possible exchange of nuclear technology or warheads with Iran or NK; though allegiances do change, at this moment in time (or for the foreseeable future) I think it can be safely assumed by most rational people that Iran, once she herself possesses a nuclear capability, would not be so inclined as to share it with her “aggressive” neighbor. Actually, if anyone were to export such technology, NK makes slightly more sense, as they have no particular interest in the area (and could conceivably have an interest in trading for oil, I guess); however, both countries live in goldfish bowls at the current stage, and will continue to do so for the near future. An even more likely exporter of such technology would be the only other Muslim country to possess nukes: Pakistan. Regardless of the current state of “friendship” between Pak and the US, the majority of the country does not agree with our current foreign policy; many in Pakistan are not happy with us or their own government. It wouldn’t be much of a stretch to see some clandestine assistance from individuals towards Iraq, in a measure of solidarity. Certainly much less farfetched than the examples proposed, though I don’t think the likelihood is all that great at the current time.

And saying that it is “condescending to Arabs and/or muslims” by not considering alliances that are highly unlikely is, to put it mildly, ridiculous; alliances occur when there is a mutual goal to be achieved (such as when the US/Soviets forged ties in WW2), and there would be nothing gained by the Iranians in creating an alliance with Iraq. In fact, it would be extremely detrimental to them at the present stage in their development; they have been attempting to improve relations with their moderate Arab neighbors in the Gulf, and have made overtures to us, the Europeans, and the Central Asian republics. An alliance with a pariah like Iraq would do them no good whatsoever. NK, once again, would be a very remote possibility (as could China); however, both countries are heavily isolated from the international community, and could have only the most tenuous of links.

Eva, from your previous posts I can see you have a good understanding of the newly independent republics in Central Asia; I agree wholeheartedly with your viewpoint, and would add that I didn’t go into detail before for fear of the same hijack. Like I said, many books have been written on the subject of democracy in Eastern Europe; just as an aside, can you recommend any on the phenomen in Central Asia?

Thanks

Greco

25

Regarding Saddam and his sons.

Saddam likes the Godfather.

Saddam is Vito.

Uday is Sonny

Qusay is Michael.

Qusay is in line to take over. Using the Godfather logic, he will move Iraq to Las Vegas. :smiley:

26

“If the U.S. can make alliances with the Soviets in WWII, and al-Qaida can sign cease-fires with Iraq and get material comfort with them, then Iran can aid Iraq if they both feel if it’s in their mutual interest.”
Conventional aid is one thing; supplying nuclear weapons which permanently alter the balance of power is quite another. The US didn’t help the Soviets get nukes did it? Why on earth would Iran help a regime ,which attacked it and is still a strategic threat, acquire nuclear weapons? Nuclear transfer is only remotely possible if there is a pro-Iran Shia regime in Iraq which is obviously not what you are talking about.

27

[continued hijack; sorry!]

**greco, ** I can’t think of any books directly on point on the subject of democratization in Central Asia; I’ll have to give it some thought. If any of you want some general reading material on anything involving Central Asia, though, I heartily recommend that you check out any of the reading lists for related courses taught at Indiana University’s Central Eurasian Studies Department (www.iub.edu~ceus) or the Russian & East European Institute (www.iub.edu/~reeiweb). There is much overlap between the departments, both in terms of material covered and in terms of faculty. (Yes, this is a shameless plug for my alma mater.)

A bit of on-point anecdotal information, though: a few years back, one of my thesis committee members, a specialist in language policy in the FSU, took a trip to Kazakhstan to do some research on press freedoms. In spite of his valid visa, he was detained for several days at the airport, and was not allowed to contact the U.S. Embassy for assistance. The only way he was saved in the end was that a Kazakh colleague caught a glimpse of him through a window in the airport and contacted the necessary authorities, who negotiated his release (although in this case, “released” meant “put back on the next plane out of the country,” not “allowed into Kazakhstan to conduct his previously approved research). Press freedoms are a very sensitive topic in the FSU these days, and possibly even more so in Central Asia and the Caucasus than in the European FSU states. Journalists have been criminally prosecuted and disappeared and murdered, which to me isn’t such a democratic phenomenon. And the U.S. military seems to think Indiana’s program is worthwhile; there are at least a couple of military officers in the CEUS and REEI M.A. programs at any given time, paid for by Uncle Sam.

[end of hijack]

If anyone else is curious about the FSU, feel free to start other threads and I’ll take a crack at them, although Central Asia isn’t really my central area of expertise. But on the bright side, maybe the U.S. will pay more attention to area studies programs now, and maybe even fund them better!

28

I just thought of something on-point for you, **greco_loco; ** check out Martha Brill Olcott’s Kazakhstan: Unfulfilled Promise. I haven’t read it yet, but I did hear her speak on her book tour at the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations, and what she had to say made a lot of sense.

Some of you may also want to check out this month’s issue of *Foreign Policy: * she co-authored an article called “The Terrorist Notebooks,” about study materials she collected belonging to young Uzbeks undergoing Islamic terrorist training, probably in the Ferghana Valley in the mid-90’s. You can find an excerpt (with drawings of weapons copied from the notebooks) at www.foreignpolicy.com. I have no idea how widespread such sentiments are in Central Asia these days, but it’s some pretty terrifying stuff.

29

Eva, thanks for the information and for taking the time to post. Sorry I didn’t get back sooner, but I was out and then promptly forgot about the thread. I am supposed to be heading towards Central Asia here soon (Kyrgysztan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan), so I will track down the Olcott book as soon as I can. Should be an interesting read.

Take care

Greco