# What's the deal with China's short-sighted, unsustainable car policy **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [July 14, 2011, 7:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-deal-with-chinas-short-sighted-unsustainable-car-policy/588987 "2011-07-14T07:14:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-deal-with-chinas-short-sighted-unsustainable-car-policy/588987/21 "2011-07-18T01:40:39Z")
> [@Balthisar](#): > > China’s big. It’s almost exactly the size of the United States. While high-speed rail is awesome between, say, Shanghai and Nanjing, it still has the same problems as high-speed rail would have in the United States, i.e., it’s slow compared to air travel. Like the Chinese ghost cities, there’s a lot of mumbling that the rail system is unsustainable (kind of the opposite of what the OP was trying to get at). Personally I will happily take a 5 hour 300 km per hour train over a 1.5 hour flight. I can work on my laptop the whole time (they usually have power at seats even in “economy”) I have much more room than on a flight and when you count transit to the airport checkin and the hassle of security that 1.5 hour flight really takes 4 hours door to door. What the hell does “unsustainable” mean for a rail system? The Shinkansen (Japan bullet trains) network lost money the first 20 years. The Chinese government obviously thinks the rail network is important and they are willing to lose money on it until middle class incomes rise enough so that the ridership grows. Do you think they’ll dismantle the 9500km of HSR they’ve already built or something? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-deal-with-chinas-short-sighted-unsustainable-car-policy/588987/22 "2011-07-18T03:00:43Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > What the hell does “unsustainable” mean for a rail system? [This.](http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/18/world/asia/18rail.html?pagewanted=all) > [@](#): > > Railroad finances are yet another worry. Analysts have warned that the construction schedule ordered by Mr. Liu threatens to push the ministry’s debt — already $170 billion last fall — to an unsustainable level. > > A 2010 analysis by China Minsheng Bank, reported this week by Caijing, found that the ministry’s debts equaled 56 percent of its assets and could reach $455 billion, or 70 percent of its assets, by 2020. In his last months on the job, Mr. Liu had begun an aggressive program to deal with the debt by selling stakes in the railway to investors like large state-controlled banks. > > The Minsheng report suggested that the high-speed network may remain a money-loser for the next 20 years, despite heavy use. Ticket prices — several times those for a conventional train — have led to a backlash among some Chinese. Also put like [this](http://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-high-speed-rail-dilemma-2011-1). > [@](#): > > China Daily notes that a new luxury sleeper service between Shanghai and Chengdu costs an astonishing US$352 (easily comparable — and possibly more expensive than — an air ticket). > But many travelers cannot afford the tickets, causing a waste of transport capacity. > Instead of buying expensive high-speed rail tickets, migrants are instead opting to take the bus … ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-deal-with-chinas-short-sighted-unsustainable-car-policy/588987/23 "2011-07-18T03:10:10Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > [This.](http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/18/world/asia/18rail.html?pagewanted=all)Also put like [this](http://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-high-speed-rail-dilemma-2011-1). So what? Compared to the cost of the US’s two pointless wars and the financial crisis bailout it’s nothing and this has the benefit of being valuable economic infrastructure. China can afford the debt. Read about the history of the Shinkansen, it’s now a crucial part of the Japanese economy but lost money for 20 years. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-deal-with-chinas-short-sighted-unsustainable-car-policy/588987/24 "2011-07-18T03:41:10Z")
Japan is a much much smaller country than is China with densely populated corridors. If it took twenty years to stop losing money _there_, how do you think that bodes for a country that has to lay a _helluva_ lot more track per unit ridership? ---
**Author:** ![Balthisar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/balthisar/32/2825_2.png) [@Balthisar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balthisar)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-deal-with-chinas-short-sighted-unsustainable-car-policy/588987/25 "2011-07-18T03:59:25Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > So what? Compared to the cost of the US’s two pointless wars and the financial crisis bailout it’s nothing and this has the benefit of being valuable economic infrastructure. China can afford the debt. Read about the history of the Shinkansen, it’s now a crucial part of the Japanese economy but lost money for 20 years. No one’s saying that the cost of two wars in forever sustainable, either, and I certainly will never make the claim that the bailout was a good idea. Those all have a lot in common with high-speed rail “infrastructure” and the Chinese ghost city spending. It’s bad, Keynesian-style government spending that looks good today on paper but will have severe negative impacts in the not-too-far-off future; it’s phantom GDP. I emphasis-quoted “infrastructure” because it’s _not_. It’s a people-moving system. Highways, heavy rail, and aircraft are real infrastructure. People-moving could be infrastructure in locations where massive amounts of people have to move in regular fashion, like commuters. Subways and light-rail are good examples of this. Why do people always think that because tiny places like Japan and Europe can have high-speed trains that it must automatically be suitable for every type of goegraphy? Is it because Europe’s “cool,” and since they have trains, trains must be cool too? (Hell, trains _are_ cool, but I don’t expect to make other people pay into money-losing schemes so that I can be entertained by them.) ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-deal-with-chinas-short-sighted-unsustainable-car-policy/588987/26 "2011-07-18T05:09:05Z")
Wow, just wow. The level of willful ignorance and self denial about the inevitable rise of China on this board is astonishing. High speed rail is absolutely infrastructure. In Japan I can live in Osaka, plan a business meeting in Tokyo, arrive at the train station 10 minutes before the train leaves, be 99.9 percent certain I’ll arrive on time, be on mobile contact the entire journey and work on my laptop the whole way (they have power at most seats). You telling me theres no economic benefit to that? Another economic benefit, a whole bunch of small towns that were dying (as all the jobs moved to the cities) were revitalised by the Shinkansen as they are now within commuting distance of Osaka or Tokyo. Many many people commute up to 150 km to work in Tokyo in comfort and they can work on their laptops and be on the internet and be productive for the 45 minutes it takes to go that far. Anyway, China is also investing in Hydropower, Nuclear power stations, bridges, a highway network all of which is “real” infrastructure. All those ghost towns are real infrastructure too, they are empty now but in 5 years time more people will be able to afford them. They’ve been bought up by rich speculators but the government is currently changing the tax system to try and punish the speculators and force the empty houses to be sold at affordable prices to the rising middle class. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 5:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-deal-with-chinas-short-sighted-unsustainable-car-policy/588987/27 "2011-07-18T05:26:22Z")
I’ve started a thread here: > **[Ask the entrepreneur who is starting a small business in Shanghai](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=616730)** > > I’ve been posting on a few threads about China and I’m astonished at the level of ignorance and willful denial about “New China”. I’m currently in Shanghai with the goal of doing the initial research to start a WOFE (wholly owned foreign enterprise)... To fight the ignorance about China from a business perspective in general. ---
**Author:** ![Balthisar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/balthisar/32/2825_2.png) [@Balthisar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balthisar)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 7:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-deal-with-chinas-short-sighted-unsustainable-car-policy/588987/28 "2011-07-18T07:00:35Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > Wow, just wow. The level of willful ignorance and self denial about the inevitable rise of China on this board is astonishing. Of course that’s not happening in this current thread. We’re talking about infrastructure and careless spending. > [@](#): > > High speed rail is absolutely infrastructure. In Japan I can live in Osaka, plan a business meeting in Tokyo, arrive at the train station 10 minutes before the train leaves, be 99.9 percent certain I’ll arrive on time, be on mobile contact the entire journey and work on my laptop the whole way (they have power at most seats). You telling me theres no economic benefit to that? Not to China. Focus. We’re not talking about Japan. > [@](#): > > Anyway, China is also investing in Hydropower, Nuclear > real" infrastructure. Agreed. This is sensible. High-speeds aren’t. > [@](#): > > All those ghost towns are real infrastructure too, they are empty now but in 5 years time more people will be able to afford them. They’ve been bought up by rich speculators but the government is currently changing the tax system to try and punish the speculators and force the empty houses to be sold at affordable prices to the rising middle class. That’s not at all how economics works. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 7:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-deal-with-chinas-short-sighted-unsustainable-car-policy/588987/29 "2011-07-18T07:07:09Z")
> [@Balthisar](#): > > Of course that’s not happening in this current thread. We’re talking about infrastructure and careless spending. > > Not to China. Focus. We’re not talking about Japan. > > Agreed. This is sensible. High-speeds aren’t. > > That’s not at all how economics works. WTF? I can do the same thing between many China city pairs now, plan a business meeting, arrive 10 mins before the train leaves and work on my laptop with mobile internet the whole way. China has a rising class of young entrepreneurs and absolutely the high speed rail network helps them to be more productive, and it will help me to be more productive in running my WOFE here in Shanghai. High speed rail is infrastructure. There’s been a whole bunch of research papers done on the economic effects of the Shinkansen and there is no reason that they don’t apply to China. China is a huge country but the population is spread in thin corridors along the coast and river valleys, and those areas have population density similar or higher than Japan. And yes that is how economics works in China. China is not free market capitalism, it’s a planned economy with free markets where appropriate. Go read the 5 year plan for 2011-2015. People who try to understand China from western business perspectives are pretty much doomed, they just don’t think that way. To China losing money on high speed rail for 20 years is a very sensible thing to do, and you know what I agree with it. ---
**Author:** ![Balthisar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/balthisar/32/2825_2.png) [@Balthisar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balthisar)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 8:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-deal-with-chinas-short-sighted-unsustainable-car-policy/588987/30 "2011-07-18T08:15:23Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > WTF? I can do the same thing between many China city pairs now, plan a business meeting, arrive 10 mins before the train leaves and work on my laptop with mobile internet the whole way. China has a rising class of young entrepreneurs and absolutely the high speed rail network helps them to be more productive, and it will help me to be more productive in running my WOFE here in Shanghai. But you’re benig highly selective in what works and what doesn’t work, and you keep comparing things with Japan. For example, you’ll note that above I favorably rated the Shangai-Nanjing connection. It’s a short distance. It’s similar to Japan and Europe. The train’s always full (even though it’s still not break-even). It’s like commuting. But it’s ridiculous to say that it’s inevitable that this type of thinking works as infrastructure for longs runs, such as Shanghai to Beijing, let alone as a web throughout the entire country. That’s wasteful. There’s existing, superior, cheaper infrastructure that already pays its own bills. (Actually, how do you get the mobile internet? Every time I’ve been on the high speed [first class cabin] I never get a wifi signal.) > [@](#): > > High speed rail is infrastructure. There’s been a whole bunch of research papers done on the economic effects of the Shinkansen and there is no reason that they don’t apply to China. There are lots and lots of reasons! Everything about China is different than Japan with the exception of some of the written characters. The problem with “command economies” and autocracies is that they don’t have a history of economics behind them that prevents them from being so short-sighted. Hell, we _do_ have that history and that doesn’t even prevent us from being short sighted. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 8:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-deal-with-chinas-short-sighted-unsustainable-car-policy/588987/31 "2011-07-18T08:25:18Z")
> [@Balthisar](#): > > it’s inevitable that this type of thinking works as infrastructure for longs runs, such as Shanghai to Beijing, let alone as a web throughout the entire country. That’s wasteful. There’s existing, superior, cheaper infrastructure that already pays its own bills. > > (Actually, how do you get the mobile internet? Every time I’ve been on the high speed [first class cabin] I never get a wifi signal.) > There are lots and lots of reasons! Everything about China is different than Japan with the exception of some of the written characters. There’s nothing unique about Japan that means high speed rail can only work in Japan. What existing superior infrastructure are you talking about? Planes? Sorry they are way inferior in my opinion. As an investor China’s HSR network is just one factor that is making me decide to base myself and invest money in starting a company here. That’s an economic benefit to China right there. I get mobile internet access through Unicom network with a local sim card and tethering on my iphone, not wifi. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 8:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-deal-with-chinas-short-sighted-unsustainable-car-policy/588987/32 "2011-07-18T08:40:52Z")
Look if you’re going to argue at least give me some facts rather than just bluntly stating it’s wasteful. Compared to what? The cost of Iraq and Afghanistan? Paper on the economic effects of Shinkansen [http://www.jrtr.net/jrtr03/f09\_oka.html](http://www.jrtr.net/jrtr03/f09_oka.html) The population density of the coastal strip of China is 320.6 people per square kilometer. For japan overall it’s 336 per square kilometer. Pretty damn close. sources: > **[Demographics of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_People's_Republic_of_China)** > > China is the second most populous country in Asia as well as the second most populous country in the world, with a population of 1,425,671,352. > China has an enormous population with a relatively small youth component, partially a result of China's one-child policy that was implemented from 1979 until 2015. > China was the world's most populous country from at least 1950 until being surpassed by India in 2023. > **[Demographics of Japan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan)** > > The demographic features of the population of Japan include population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations, and other aspects regarding the population. > According to the Statistical Bureau of Japan, the population of Japan as of February 2023 is at 124.631 million, including foreign residents. The population of Japanese nationals only was 123.8 million in January 2021. > As of 2017, Japan was the world's eleventh-most populous countr... ---
**Author:** ![SecretaryofEvil](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@SecretaryofEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SecretaryofEvil)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 8:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-deal-with-chinas-short-sighted-unsustainable-car-policy/588987/33 "2011-07-18T08:48:00Z")
It’s odd how quickly this thread degenerated into coremelt repeating “I, for one, welcome our new Chinese overlords.” ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 8:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-deal-with-chinas-short-sighted-unsustainable-car-policy/588987/34 "2011-07-18T08:49:34Z")
Another fact for you: Japan started building the Shinkansen in 1962, when it’s GDP per capita was $663, which in 2011 dollars is approx $4800. So coastal China has same population density as Japan and already has a higher per capita GDP than when Japan started building the Shinkansen. China’s GDP per capita is $7500 US 2011 estimate. still think it doesn’t make sense? ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 8:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-deal-with-chinas-short-sighted-unsustainable-car-policy/588987/35 "2011-07-18T08:51:24Z")
> [@SecretaryofEvil](#): > > It’s odd how quickly this thread degenerated into coremelt repeating “I, for one, welcome our new Chinese overlords.” I don’t approve of many things the Chinese governmen does, just like you probably don’t approve of many things the US government does. I do however approve of the business evironment they’ve created. Everything I’ve posted on here is factual, look it up for yourself. ---
**Author:** ![Airmotive](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/a183cd/32.png) [@Airmotive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airmotive)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 12:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-deal-with-chinas-short-sighted-unsustainable-car-policy/588987/36 "2011-07-18T12:38:11Z")
I dunno Coremelt. I just returned from a year in ZhuZhou, Changsha & Hengyang. While what you’re saying may hold true for the Hong Kong-Shanghai-Beijing corridor, the rest of China is, essentially, a whole other country. It’s sort of like spending a few weeks in the Boston-New York- DC corridor in the US, and applying your observations to the rest of the country. In both cases, that narrow stretch of concentrated population, while accounting for a disproportionate % of the nation’s wealth and political influence, accounts for only a small percentage of the nation’s population, industry, food production and culture. I’ve had many friends ask me for advice while planning a vacation to China. The only advice I give them is: If you want to see the REAL China, get away from the East Coast. Ragarding the rail system…wait until your first holiday season in China…then get back to me about how wonderful it is. (If you haven’t _already_ bought tickets for next spring…you’re staying home that month; you’re not going anywhere…especially on the Z trains.) ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-deal-with-chinas-short-sighted-unsustainable-car-policy/588987/37 "2011-07-18T16:33:07Z")
Airmotive you are actually agreeing with me. So the Hong Kong-Shanghai-Beijing corridor is different, thats all I’m talking about. As an entrepreneur I don’t really care about what it’s like in the rest of China. I care about if I can get the skilled manpower and resources and infrastructure that I need in Shanghai. The answer is unreservedly yes. ---
**Author:** ![Balthisar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/balthisar/32/2825_2.png) [@Balthisar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balthisar)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-deal-with-chinas-short-sighted-unsustainable-car-policy/588987/38 "2011-07-19T01:32:40Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > still think it doesn’t make sense? I think you’re still too fixated on Japan and not China’s uniqueness. I’m going to hold off until this thread is moved from GQ, because you’ve taken it beyond the scope. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-deal-with-chinas-short-sighted-unsustainable-car-policy/588987/39 "2011-07-19T01:39:00Z")
> [@Balthisar](#): > > I think you’re still too fixated on Japan and not China’s uniqueness. > > I’m going to hold off until this thread is moved from GQ, because you’ve taken it beyond the scope. Please explain how the economic benefits of the Shinkansen as I’ve described them somehow magically apply to Japan and not anywhere else. Are you interested in actually recognizing any of the facts I’ve quoted about population density and the relative GDP’s of China and Japan when the Shinkansen network was started? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-deal-with-chinas-short-sighted-unsustainable-car-policy/588987/40 "2011-07-19T02:43:18Z")
**coremelt** 1. The plan is not just for the coastal megacities but includes lines into as far as Lanzhou and Chengdu. That’s a lot of track. 2. Per capita GDP in these two cases does not quite compare. Income disparity in China is on a scale that Japan did not have. Japanese society had a massive middle class; China’s middle class is growing, but is still relatively small. The concept in Japan OTOH has always been “ichioku-sohchu-ryu”, that is “'a nation of middle-class people”. When Japan had that per capita GDP it really had a large number people making something like that, who could afford to ride the heavily subsidized HSR system. That got volumes up high enough fast enough to make the ongoing losses sustainable. In contrast the bulk of Chinese cannot afford these trains. The ongoing losses are therefore harder to sustain. 3. Maybe they’ll subsidize it enough to make it affordable. They might. But they’d do better, IMHO, to focus on the coastal megacity corridor, and they’ll get more bang for the buck out of improved public transportation in the [emerging Pearl River Megacity](http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver/2011/02/development_china)plan, including its limited use of HSR within its confines and to connect to Hong Kong. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-deal-with-chinas-short-sighted-unsustainable-car-policy/588987.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-deal-with-chinas-short-sighted-unsustainable-car-policy/588987.md?page=3)