What's the logic (if any) behind television broadcast programming?

X Files – Friday
>Dollhouse – Friday, barely lasted 2 seasons
>Farscape – Friday, cable
>Stargate – Friday, cable
>Stargate Atlantis – Friday, cable
>Stargate Univers – Friday, cable + barely 2 seasons
>Wonderfalls – Friday, shorter lived than Firefly
Nightmare Cafe – Friday
>Doctor Who (in the US) – Friday, cable
Ghost Writer – Friday
>Caprica – Friday, cable + barely 1 season
Wild Wild West – Friday
Time Tunnel – Friday
The Green Hornet (arguably Sf) – Friday
>The Flying Nun – Friday, sitcom with fantastic element not scifi any more than Bewitched
Ghost Story – Friday
The Six Million Dollar Man – Friday
The New Adventures of Wonder Woman – Friday
The Incredible Hulk – Friday
Logan’s Run – Friday
>Fantasy Island – Friday (premiered here, though later moved to Saturday), not really scifi
Darkroom – Friday
The Greatest American Hero – Friday
>V (original series) – Friday, barely lasted 1 season
The New Twilight Zone – Friday
Knight Rider – Friday
>Misfits of Science – Friday, another 1 season wonder
Beauty and the Beast – Friday
Quantum Leap (first full season) – Friday
>Dinosaurs – Friday, not scifi
The Adventures of Briscoe County Jr. – Friday
M.A.N.T.I.S. – Friday
Strange Luck – Friday
Sliders – Friday
Millennium – Friday
Freaky Links – Friday
Night Visions – Friday

several of those are also very old, so arguing about current TV trends using them is kinda moot, a few I never heard of (strange luck?)

A lot of video SF is not what I’d regard as quality SF. The science makes my brain asplode. Producers of both TV and movies want to rely on a formula that’s worked well in the past. Good SF is supposed to be innovative. So there’s a major conflict right there. Plus, a lot of the concepts in SF are hard to show, visually.

Most video SF gets so many things so wrong that I feel like throwing things at the screen.

When I first signed up for Netflix, I decided to try out Firefly. Got the first two discs, and dear Og, but I couldn’t slog through even the first episode. I tried each episode, and all of them were full of Boring. I had been ready to enjoy this series. Now I’m just glad I didn’t buy it.

Two things:

  1. He’s not the only one, the rest of us typically don’t get in between Whedon and his fellators because it’s an exercise in futility.

  2. What, there’s only two of us? Look at the ratings, they don’t lie. So much for the “sole voice” that thinks Firefly sucked. The show couldn’t draw, ahem, flies, and that’s why it was canceled. I’m sorry you can’t wrap your head around that, but it’s the truth. The last two television shows I enjoyed were canceled as well, yet there’s no rending of garments from me over Ed and Alias.

You Whedon fans need to get a grip. It’s worse than Mac evangelism and Yankee fandom, and (if you can believe it) even more ridiculous.

Ratings smatings. Look at the critical reception to Firefly. It was loved. And speculating what would have happened if it had been treated with the same respect as The X-Files or even Briscoe County Jr (the X-Files slotmate in its first season) is not “fellating Joss Whedon.”

“Days of Our Lives” vs. “The Sopranos.”

Ratings. Don’t. Lie.

The fact that you say ‘Ratings, Schmatings’ indicates that you just don’t get the concept. It was a dodgy idea executed not terribly well that appealed to a small niche audience. Nothing more. Critical reviews don’t get you anywhere in television. Only numbers.

For that matter, you’re comparing it to Brisco County, Jr (the last television show I actually watched with any regularity) and it only lasted one season before being canceled.

Firefly’s ratings weren’t terrible. And the number of people that discovered how good the show was over the years through the DVD set would have only increased the broadcast numbers if they had given it a chance.

Fox debuted two sci-fi shows on Friday nights in 1993. One was a highly touted new show about supernatural forces messing with the natural order of things. It had a charismatic lead actor who starred in a cult favorite series and was expected to anchor Fox Friday nights for years to come. The other show was The X-Files.

People forget that Brisco County Jr. was supposed to be the breakout success of that tandem. But when it didn’t happen, Fox still allowed the show to complete it’s full season. And it ran the episodes in the correct order. Fox gave Brisco a chance, something Firefly never got. The fact that it happened before (with Brisco) and happened in the future (with Dollhouse and The Sarah Connor Chronicles, just to name two) is the frustrating thing for fans.

Firefly’s ratings were terrible; worse than Brisco County Jr., and about as bad as Dollhouse and the Sarah Connor Chronicles.

I was with you until you mentioned the Yankees :mad:

I liked Firefly. Never watched Buffy, what little of Angel I saw I didn’t like, and Dollhouse pretty much put me to sleep.

Dollhouse, interesting concept. Change the memories and rent out the mercenaries/soldiers/undercover agents/ whatever you want to call them for the job at hand. Problem was, the underlying theme didn’t really stand out until you watched it a couple times. Re-program the women and rent them. Prostitution. Okay, it wasn’t sex, but it was TOO similar. When done using them, pack 'em back in the house until further use.

Same with a series called Planet of the Apes. The movies were action movies that were also thinker material. Fine, enjoy them or not. But for an ongoing TV series, there was WAY too much prejudice and discrimination. The fact that it was white people facing the prejudice just made it ALL the more uncomfortable for the major viewing audience of… white people.

But most importantly, in the TV business, it’s One Mistake & You’re Through. Nobody is going to take a chance on the unknown. If it worked in the past, it should work again. At worst, it will work long enough that you don’t get the blame when it dies. Now, take a truly innovative thinker who sees potential in a whole new idea. If it takes off, he’s a Genius, a mover and a shaker in the industry. On future projects, he can do no wrong. Until he does. The first time a project goes down the toilet, his career is over. He is now a Failure, not a Genius, and nobody will trust his decision again.

In that business, dog eat dog is really true. Even the successful ones have challengers chewing their way up the ankles. Not by outperforming them, but by trying to drag them down. Most of them, if they want to stay working, don’t take chances.

I will admit that my knowledge of the Nielsen process is only wikipedia deep, but I don’t see how that system can in any way be stated as a definitive source of numbers. Sure it’s what everyone agrees to use, but the sheer numbers make it statistically insignificant. Aside from the low ratio of Nielson households to total TV households, I don’t know that even that TV Household number is accurate. For example in our house we have 4 DVR’s that play on 6 TV sets. So do we count as one TV household, or 4? or 6? There can be 4 totally different programs playing in our house at the same time…and often are.

The ratio of sample size to population size is practically irrelevant to whether the sample is statistically significant.

That’s not what “statistically insignificant” means. So long as your sampling technique is sound, it doesn’t matter how small your sample is.

This is an example of seemingly irrational decisions which are, in fact, quite rational when one considers the executives’ actual agenda in any given case rather than the presumed agenda of maximizing viewership and profits. In some cases, the actual agenda is to kill something Not Invented Here so as to discredit a rival and to free up prime space on the schedule for the decision-maker’s pet project.

While “statistically insignificant” may have a specific meaning in statistical analysis, Nielsen’s methodology is ridiculously sloppy. They don’t account for multiple TVs. They don’t account for viewing parties. They don’t track online views (although this may have changed very recently). They don’t track DVR viewing.

Holding up Nielsen ratings as proof of anything beyond “here’s what the Nielsen sample is watching” is meaningless.

As this thread is set up to determine what executives think, let’s look at Firefly in terms of how to maximize profits.

First, they pull in Joss Whedon, who had two highly ranked shows on a competing network. Buffy ran for seven seasons and averaged 4.4 million viewers. Angel ran for 5 seasons and hit 4.2. No, these aren’t Fox level numbers (or weren’t, at the time). But Joss was a known entity, with a consistent track record, and a loyal fan base who would follow him to a new project even with zero advertising.
And indeed they did. Viewership for Firefly averaged 4.7 million through its half season run. This despite almost no advertising (I really tried finding numbers here but my Google-fu has failed). The only promotion I can recall was during Fox’s baseball playoff coverage and the overlap in demographics between the two would, charitably, be slim.
Then they aired the episodes out of order too. This isn’t Law & Order. Joss’s shows are formed with a ongoing storyline full of callbacks and stacked plot points that make no sense when you have no frame of reference because the thing it’s referencing hasn’t even aired yet!
11, 2, 1, 6, 7, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9. That’s the order of the show’s airing. You really expect a show to have an audience with no advertising and airing episode 11 as its “pilot”?
No. Fox got out of it exactly what its executives put in: They put in nothing and got back 4.7 million viewers which was wholly consistent with Joss’s previous numbers and can be explained solely through Joss’s dedicated viewership. And then Fox cancelled it.

Oh, joy. Another thread of let’s bash Nielsen even though we don’t understand what ratings are.

Ratings don’t measure the viewership of programs. The ones you see are a meaningless sop to public curiosity, just as weekend box office grosses are for movies. Ratings measure the viewership of commercials. That changes everything. And yes, that means that PBS doesn’t have official Nielsen ratings. They don’t need them, so they don’t need to spend the enormous sums of money they cost. (They may contract for special surveys, although many firms will do that.)

Measuring commercial viewership (or listenership for radio) means that the real ratings aren’t what you get to see. If you’re old enough you may remember that in tv programs like Mary Tyler Moore or WKRP in Cincinnati, the executives were always struggling with giant, thick piles of printouts called rating books. Whenever the book came out Andy Travis would announce to the DJs that he hadn’t had time to go through it all yet but that they looked good. Or horrible.

Why was the book so thick and hard to read? Because it was designed to measure commercialship not programship. In fact, Nielsen ratings are given in blocks of six minutes. Ten every hour. Two hundred forty every day (except daylight time switch days). Yes, they do bundle those into larger groups, but the real numbers are the six-minute averages. Why? Because it makes it much easier to measure the commercials they care about, not the programs they don’t

And those really don’t count all that much because advertisers discovered demographics many decades ago. Each of the 240 blocks are broken down by age, location, sex, race, and anything else they can check off. And also in combinations thereof. Are you a black female in Chicago between 18 and 24? There’s a box for you.

Advertisers pay not merely for gross numbers but for numbers in their targeted demographics. They don’t care whether the program is new or old or good or bad or a rerun or a special. They pay by expectations, and their contracts call for minimum viewership in the right demographics or else the programmers have to give them money back or run extra commercials for free. The programmers hate this. As soon as they have to start making good, as it is known, they switch to Plan B. But they have an additional problem. They know they can only cater to a specific demographic set so far or else it starts alienating viewers not in that set. No network will program a night of MTV style programs, even if that would give them a chunk of a desired demographic. It would turn everybody else off.

Wait, it gets worse. Because the point is getting commercials watched, the ratings only care about watched commercials. They know that people leave the room during commercials. They always have, so it’s part of the deal. But how do they count viewership for time-shifted programming? More to the point, do they even care about viewership of time-shifted programming? Commercials are timely. Sure, many of them are part of on-going national campaigns, but even those often have a tag about a special sale or promotion. Watching how sales fluctuate with these specials helps advertisers measure the effectiveness of their advertising. It doesn’t help them at all if you record a Christmas program and watch it in January. The compromise is - and has been for a long time - that time-shifted viewership only counts if it is watched within a week or ten days.

Wait, again. How do they know it was watched? What if the tv was on and the person left the room or muted or fast-forwarded through it? (You think that because you do it, everybody fast-forward through commercials. They don’t. A surprisingly high percentage, something like one-third to one-half, actually watch commercials on DVRs.) Anyway, that’s where the diaries come in.

The regular Nielsen ratings come from the meters attached to sets. Another and larger group is given what are called diaries to fill out. They are supposed to record not only what is being watched but who is watching at any given moment. Everybody knows how flawed a system this is, but everybody knows it’s better than nothing. Many systems have been tried that try to count automatically, by some sensor arrangement, but I don’t think any is widespread and practical. And the diaries are so expensive, since they require so many more respondents to get an adequate sample size in each breakdown box, that they are limited. Except for sweeps months. Which feature so many specials that the point obviously can’t be to measure programming. They don’t. They measure demographics.

Added to all these flaws is the problem of trying to measure group viewing. Dorms, bars, prisons, hotels. Can these be properly measured? As far as I know, they can’t. After-the-fact memory surveys are the best alternative, although obviously inadequate. So some demographics do get short-changed. That means that network programming is always going to be disproportionally aimed at stay-at-home families. Family-friendly programming is therefore an extremely sensitive issue and any deviation makes headlines.

What happens when the tv is taken out of the equation? You can now watch tv on your computer. You can’t watch tv with the original set of commercials on your computer, though. So why would those advertisers care who watches? A different set of advertisers might, true. But not the originals. How do you program for two entirely different sets of advertisers with different demographic targets and different time needs? Nobody has come close to an answer for that.

The short answer is what I said upfront. The system is set up to make the most money by selling commercials. Programming is geared almost entirely toward this goal. Viewers are good, but the wrong set of viewers is not as valuable. The right set is valuable, but they can’t be seen to control. IIRC, there are a few stations in Europe that broadcast nothing but commercials. That’s an ideal that every station owner aspires to.

Commericals, commercials, commercials. [del]Programs[/del], [del]programs[/del], [del]programs[/del].

As someone in a Nielsen family (me and my two college roommates at a house one of them owns off campus), I can say that every TV in the house has a box wired up to it (though none of us have DVRs).

Back then the networks didn’t own shows, and I’ve never read anything to make me think this was the cause. The suits were no doubt pissed that they got pressured into renewing the show (whose ratings were not that hot) and so dumped it somewhere where it would get lost. It’s not like ST’s slot was ever all that prime, after all.
However, as far as ratings went, canceling it after the second season was not a big deal. In 1968 they had no idea of the hidden strength of geek power, after all.

I’m not sure I understand. Are you saying that Nielsen families record in their diaries which commercials they watch?

Logging all the commercials seems like an awful lot of work. On the other hand, if they don’t log the commercials, then how can Nielsen be said to be measuring commercials instead of programs? (Obviously they want to measure viewership of commercials. I just don’t see how the system you’ve described does that.)

Are they expected to write, “went to bathroom during commercial” or something similar? If they do watch a commercial, are they expected to identify it? (E.g., “watched Geico ad - the annoying one with the obnoxious pig squealing”)