So, was the poll in question a joke poll? Or just something not to take seriously that, obviously, some folks of a certain political bent did take seriously?
Would need to see the full poll to be honest.
I seem to remember a poll in the USA that said huge numbers of (presumably Democrat) Americans were thinking about moving to Canada.
That appears to be the consensus here on SDMB, and you’ve been told that, first with snark referencing the last poll thread you started, and then carefully thought out by Nava:
Here’s a WAG from me, that you may find useful: every poll, with careful statistics, well specified, with the assumptions described beforehand, is a great poll. You won’t find those, except in a Journal dedicated to the discipline. Maybe a highbrow newspaper like the Times has their experts careful summarize such a poll for us, but we’ll never read and understand the source.
Every poll existing solely on the internet is a joke poll, because that can’t be avoided. Practically every thread here, on the SDMB, devolves into some sort of joke, what would stop a YouTuber from being silly or a clickbait page?
We have such a poll every new US president, and someone always wants to leave because of … and it never happens.
The question is, where, on this continuum, does CNN election polls fit.
I’m finding the poll mentioned on news sites that aren’t right-wing propaganda, but not anywhere on the site of Transferwise which is supposed to have paid YouGov for it.
Note that even without knowing the exact phrasing of the question the 55% are people who’d like to experience living outside of Germany for shorter or longer and 33% of them mention better weather as a motivating factor.
It’s probably similar to this survey, which Transferwise didn’t pay to have made representative, and which showed 35% of American’s would like to move abroad for a bit in 2016: New research: more than a third of Americans are ready to move abroad - Wise, formerly TransferWise
Only 14% considered moving abroad within the next 5 years mind you.
It’s a poll created for marketing purposes for a international money transfer company and it’s being twisted to present Germans as being disgusted with Germany.
Moderator Note
Keep the snark out of GQ. There was no call for remarks like this. No warning issued, but in the future address the question instead of making implications about the poster.
Colibri
General Questions Moderator
Is the weather that bad in Germany? I’ve only been there in the spring and it seemed pretty nice to me, but maybe the winter is bad?
I appreciate the more thoughtful posts walking me through this. Kind of why I asked the question in GQ was to get that sort of response. Generally, I don’t take polls like this seriously, and in this case I didn’t either, but there are a lot of folks who are fooled by them, especially when it conforms to the persons world view. My friend who was discussing this with me and some other friends this weekend definitely has a rather dim opinion of Europe (ironically, he’s from France) in general and Germany specifically, so this sort of poll confirms his worldview. It’s good to have ammo for future discussions.
It depends on what you compare with, but anywhere in Northern Europe there is a substantial percentage of the population that would like less cold, rain, sleet and snow. A percentage of those again would move in a heartbeat if the warm and sunny places didn’t have such a high percentage of foreigners.
Yes. 538.com gives it a B grade with 0.3 Democratic lean.
Polling companies make money by doing polls for people who pay for them. Doesn’t mean they aren’t legit. There’s a US pollster that also likes to put silly questions at the end, blanking on the name, but it’s amusing and generates headlines. Stuff like 23% of people remember where they were when Matt Damon landed on Mars (I made that one up but it’s along those lines).
ETA, I don’t mean to imply that I really believe the results of this survey mean what the far right says they mean. And I expect YouGov knew very well that when people are asked whether they’d like to live in another country most are gonna say ‘yes’ because why not?
It’s a bit like that daft survey we had here recently. Something along the lines of “Do you want to leave the EU?”
Of course people voted ‘yes’. It meant that our weather would immediately improve and do away with silly rules about bent cucumbers - didn’t it?
There was a B&W film in the 50s called Passport to Pimlico. Pimlico is a London Borough which discovers that it is an independent country, no longer subject to post-war rationing etc. Naturally, because it is no longer part of Britain, the sun comes out and they enjoy a Mediterranean climate while the rest of London still suffers the usual smog and drizzle.
I’ve been to Majorca. It feels like half of Germany already have.
OP, you link to an article in German that you link in post #17. I don’t speak great German but, as far as I can see, if that article is correct then the Voice of Europe article that you link in your first post completely misrepresents the results of the survey.
Firstly, while 55% of Germans would like to live abroad for a time, they don’t conceive of or express this as “emigration” and most want to live abroad only for a limited time. Only a third of the 55% are interested in living abroad for ever, and they are mostly retirees. Retired Germans go to Majorca like Americans go to Florida.
Secondly, the main reasons given for an interest in living abroad are a calmer and more relaxed life, a higher quality of life, better weather.
Thirdly, and most seriously, wanting a more stable political situation and/or a higher income are offered as reasons for not moving abroad. Voice of Europe flat-out lies about this, saying that people want to leave German in quest of political stability.
So your instinct is correct. This is part distortion, part flat-out fabrication.
Okay, I took one for the team and read the original article linked here. (Die Welt ought to be a trusted site, but in this day and age who knows…)
Quick takeaways:
–The poll is not exactly meaningful, illuminating, or hard-hitting, but it is quite real in that it is not a joke, is not in itself racist, and is not obviously biased in any way.
–The description of the poll taken from the “Voice of Europe” site, in the OP, is wayyyyyyy off…not in some of the basic facts, I guess, but in other ways…whoa baby, it’s positively Trumpian.
–If the OP’s friend is parroting the interpretation of the “Voice of Europe” site, then the OP’s friend has suspended his critical thinking capabilities. He can be shown this news item (if he reads German) or my synopsis (if he does not), and if he does not say “ooh, yeah, my thinking’s a little screwy,” then he should never be relied on as a source about anything ever again.
Okay. This was a “representative survey” (the phrase is repeated several times so it must be true) of 2,109 German adults. Yes, “more than half of respondents”–55% to be exact–stated that they “would like” to live abroad. What “live abroad” means is vague: about a third of “yes” voters stated a desire to emigrate permanently, a smaller percentage meant leaving Germany for 2-5 years, 9% meant leaving for “at most one year.” Anyway, the 55% becomes a much less compelling 18% or so when you are only including those who say they would like to leave forever, rather than taking an extended road trip, a long vacation, a few years’s sabbatical… Not quite as punchy. Oh well. [Notice we have not yet said anything directly about politics or government or Merkel…]
There are demographic differences too: older people are more likely to want to emigrate for keeps. Younger people generally prefer leaving for shorter periods of time. [Notice we have not yet said anything directly about politics or government or…]
There were three main reasons given (more than one choice was allowed): less stress, better quality of life, and better weather (38, 33, and 31 percent of “yes” voters respectively). [Notice we have not yet said anything directly about politics or …]
One interesting thing, possibly, is that 29% of people say they are more interested in leaving now than they would have been 2 years ago. [Note that we are not told how many of the other 71% said they were less interested and how many said there was no change–all three answers were allowable.] Why the apparent uptick? Well, the article says, couple possible reasons–
Ah, politics at last! some percentage of the 29% who are more likely to want to leave now than they were before, not specified what percentage, gave as a reason for wanting to leave “the desire to live in a country with a stable political situation.”
The next sentence, though, mentions the desire of many others in this category to “earn more money.” So maybe government and politics and Merkel are overrated?
Hmm. We’ve come to the end. Only a limited mention of politics and government, and the importance of it is minor, perhaps extremely minor. No mention of Merkel at all.
You’re welcome.
We’ve been having an ongoing scandal in Spain because of language requirements for doctors working in the Balearic Islands. It used to be that Spanish was required (duh), English valued, Catalan valued, French valued, German ohmygodyesplease valued. The regional government recently made Catalan a requirement and between that and the high prices has managed to drive a lot of doctors and nurses away, including people who have lived there for ten years but whose Catalan isn’t good enough for the test (but some of them do speak German!).
Another area which has lots of retirees from northern Europe is the SE corner of the Peninsula, mainly on the coast. That would be between Gibraltar and the Ebro delta, with greater concentrations of specific nationalities in specific areas. Things which may seem not so big, such as an immigrant from Northern Europe opening a realtor company, can help concentrate these populations. Take into account that the “migration” carries about this much paperwork:
- find a place to stay in the new country (optionally, do this after 3)
- grab your stuff
- arrive to new country
- find job or go to city hall to set up as self-employed
4b) if self-employed, go to social security
Done!
In Spain you can vote and run in local elections (town level) if you’re a citizen of another EU country. Our first German mayor was elected over 20 years ago.
Is the weather bad in Germany? Well… the weather pretty much anywhere is bad compared with that in Denia or the Fortunate Islands (the Canary Islands). And if you’re someone who’s only visited Spain for your summer vacation, or even better, your winter vacation in one of our sunnier corners, we look like paradise on wheels.
The site is trash (factually). It would be interesting to know where its servers are.
Chrome translates this pretty well:
A group of Dutch people who followed an unknown Twitter handle “V of Europe” messaged the owner and gave him the money to create a website that would be like a European Breitbart.
Unlike Breitbart, they all write using pseudonyms but are, purportedly, “Czech and Slovakian patriots in Russia, the United States and the Netherlands.”
Nobody I know in Aus wants to move back to a country where there is snow. Same as when we lived in Arizona. That was the first thing I thought of. In NY people retire to Florida. In England people retire to Spain or the South of France.
In Germany if people want to live somewhere warmer, that means changing countries. Germans want to emigrate to…? Dunno where, but probably the Mediterranean or the Black Sea, same as everyone else.
It looks like V_of_europe is asleep between Midnight and 5:30 am, GMT, and is the most prolific between 7pm and 11pm. So it is probably a person in Western or Central Europe, and that person is doing the twitter feed as his second job.
I think this is (part of) the survey:
I suspect that the question which has been “reinterpreted” was this one on page 21:
I am assuming that the 55% comes from adding and rounding 20% and 34%.
But, of course, the question is not, “Do you want to leave Germany?” It’s, “If you could move to your fantasy dreamland, would you do so?” I wouldn’t be surprised if you see similar answers to that question for just about every country. The real question would be how Germany compares to other countries, on that question, compared to other locations with a similar climate.
Granted, I don’t see any questions about duration abroad, so I suspect that this is an English sub-set of a German-language original survey. But after some searching on yougov.de, I do not see it.
I will note, however, that if one is asking about “duration abroad”, then the implication of the original question was not intended to be read as “leave the country forever”.
And I’ll note that in Germany, Switzerland is technically living abroad. But functionally it’s like moving from Nevada to Texas. Shared border, same language, different feel.