# What's the straight dope on the vaccine? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [May 26, 2020, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-straight-dope-on-the-vaccine/854494 "2020-05-26T15:47:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2020, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-straight-dope-on-the-vaccine/854494/1 "2020-05-26T15:47:09Z")
I wanted to separate the discussion about the process of developing the vaccine from the [other thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=895396) about delivering the vaccine. I have heard opinions ranging from “we’ve never developed a vaccine for a coronavirus, so don’t get your hopes up” to “12-18 months best case” (Fauci) to “we’re going to do it by October” (Trump, with oddly suspicious timing.) The Moderna vaccine seems to have some [good news](https://www.newyorker.com/science/medical-dispatch/the-coronavirus-vaccine-is-on-track-to-be-the-fastest-ever-developed) lately, in terms of both safety and efficacy. Not the end of their road, by any stretch, but the news I’ve seen has been quite optimistic, perhaps overly so. I’m completely outside of any areas of expertise here, but a number of smart folks here did a great job throwing cold water on the hydroxychloroquine bullshit. So is the Moderna news as good as they’re saying? Is there any reasonable hope of a vaccine being approved (not manufactured at scale, necessarily, but approved) by fall/winter? What about the other vaccines under development? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2020, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-straight-dope-on-the-vaccine/854494/2 "2020-05-26T16:21:00Z")
I’m certainly no expert but one thing should be clear: some parts of testing require the specific application of time. You aren’t going to know all the side effects from a vaccine the day after testing. You don’t know it’s total effect or duration of effect on the immune system the day after you test. These are obvious truths that people tend to forget completely because, hey, let’s skip all the waiting because we are in a rush. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2020, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-straight-dope-on-the-vaccine/854494/3 "2020-05-26T16:21:11Z")
Some Moderna execs and investors appear to be dumping stock at it surged to its new high of around $87. It’s not a good look, some say, for those with inside information to be dumping stock when Moderna appears to be leading the field in development of the Covid-19 vaccine. It may just be some profit taking. But it may also speak to the level of confidence in their anticipated results. A Harvard Medical School professor (whose name I don’t recall) said that Moderna has not released sufficient data to the scientific community that fully substantiate the claims of success made about their Phase I results. So there may be further reason to be cautious about an imminent vaccine from them. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2020, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-straight-dope-on-the-vaccine/854494/4 "2020-05-26T16:39:14Z")
> [@QuickSilver](#): > > Some Moderna execs and investors appear to be dumping stock at it surged to its new high of around $87. It’s not a good look, some say, for those with inside information to be dumping stock when Moderna appears to be leading the field in development of the Covid-19 vaccine. It may just be some profit taking. But it may also speak to the level of confidence in their anticipated results. A Harvard Medical School professor (whose name I don’t recall) said that Moderna has not released sufficient data to the scientific community that fully substantiate the claims of success made about their Phase I results. So there may be further reason to be cautious about an imminent vaccine from them. Looks like you may be referring to William Haseltine: [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/19/rush-share-good-news-covid-19-drugs-is-undermining-science/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/19/rush-share-good-news-covid-19-drugs-is-undermining-science/). I had seen news of the stock dumps after the press release previously, and see two potential hypotheses: one is that they intentionally pumped their stock with a misleading press release, and sold stock to take advantage. The other is that the press release is correct, but they still see a reasonable probability that the vaccine won’t be highly profitable or there is significant risk that their vaccine won’t be first to market. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2020, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-straight-dope-on-the-vaccine/854494/5 "2020-05-26T16:53:06Z")
That is indeed he. Impressive credentials. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2020, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-straight-dope-on-the-vaccine/854494/6 "2020-05-26T16:57:39Z")
Cool, thanks for the tip, QuickSilver. The WaPo article I linked was very interesting. ---
**Author:** ![Esprise\_Me](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/esprise_me/32/2947_2.png) [@Esprise\_Me](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Esprise_Me)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2020, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-straight-dope-on-the-vaccine/854494/7 "2020-05-26T17:28:25Z")
Here’s an interesting story that sheds some light on the process: [He had a severe reaction to Moderna Covid-19 vaccine. He's still a believer](https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/26/moderna-vaccine-candidate-trial-participant-severe-reaction/) > [@](#): > > Patients in clinical trials are usually faceless. But as the experimental Covid-19 vaccine being developed by Moderna Therapeutics has begun advancing through studies, it has found a much more visible advocate: trial volunteer Ian Haydon, a 29-year-old in Seattle. > > Haydon has spoken about the vaccine on CNN and CNBC. He even said he’d volunteer to be exposed to the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, if researchers want to test to see if the vaccine was actually effective. But up until now he has left out a key detail: He is, apparently, one of three people in the trial who had a systemic adverse reaction to the vaccine. > > Twelve hours after receiving his second dose, he developed a fever of more than 103 degrees, sought medical attention, and, after being released from an urgent care facility, fainted in his home. He recovered within a day. I’m starting to think I should cancel my overseas trip scheduled for next January. ---
**Author:** ![filmore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7993a0/32.png) [@filmore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmore)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2020, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-straight-dope-on-the-vaccine/854494/8 "2020-05-26T17:36:47Z")
> [@Esprise\_Me](#): > > Here’s an interesting story that sheds some light on the process: [He had a severe reaction to Moderna Covid-19 vaccine. He's still a believer](https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/26/moderna-vaccine-candidate-trial-participant-severe-reaction/) > [@](#): > > but Moderna did disclose that three, likely including Haydon, received the highest dose of the vaccine that was tested I saw this mentioned as well, and I would assume the reaction may be due to the dosage of the vaccine rather than an inherent issue with the vaccine itself. It’s common for flu vaccines to cause flu-like symptoms in some people since the body is reacting as if it is the real flu. I would guess part of vaccine testing is to find the dosage which is strong enough to be effective without causing severe flu-like symptoms. So Haydon’s reaction may have been somewhat expected based on the dosage. ---
**Author:** ![Esprise\_Me](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/esprise_me/32/2947_2.png) [@Esprise\_Me](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Esprise_Me)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2020, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-straight-dope-on-the-vaccine/854494/9 "2020-05-26T18:10:25Z")
Right, the article talks about that. It’s something a lot of people might not consider; it’s not just about hitting on the magic formula, it’s also about getting the dose right. But also, even the optimal dose might have some negative effects, at least on some people. Maybe that’s outweighed by the benefit. A lot goes into this process. I’m not the first person to realize that there are some parallels to the AIDS crisis. But I just got around to watching Dallas Buyers Club this weekend and found this article interesting: [https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/12/10/what-dallas-buyers-club-got-wrong-about-the-aids-crisis/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/12/10/what-dallas-buyers-club-got-wrong-about-the-aids-crisis/) > [@](#): > > In the film, Dallas Mercy Hospital is having a randomized controlled trial to test AZT’s effectiveness. Unable to be sure he’s getting the drug rather than a placebo in the trial, Woodroofbribes a hospital employee to supply him with AZT, to which he reacts very badly. Throughout the rest of the movie, he and other characters denounce the drug as “toxic,” and Woodroofrecommends that customers of the buyers club dispose of what AZT they have and never take it again. At one point, a news broadcast is heard which emphasizes that AZT was the most expensive drug ever produced at that point. One could be forgiven for coming away with the sense that the medical community was poisoning HIV/AIDS patients with the drug, and keeping them from other, safer, therapies. > > The trouble is that AZT is actually a very effective therapy against HIV/AIDS. “People who were consistently using AZT prolonged life for one year,” says Jonathan Engel, a medical historian at Baruch College and author of "The Epidemic: A History of AIDS."That may not sound like a lot, but at a time when the disease had a mortality rate of 100 percent, anything that delayed death was valuable. > > This is not to say that Woodruff and others were imagining things. The dosages at which the drug was prescribed really were too high, but that was because of worries that a lower dose wouldn’t be enough to meaningfully slow the virus. > > Peter Staley, a longtime HIV/AIDS activist and co-founder of theTreatment Action Group who informally consulted on “Dallas Buyers Club,” notes that though laterstudies showed that half the original dose worked just as well, researchers didn’t know this in the early days of the epidemic, and they only figured it out by comparing a lower dose to the original dose and finding the two had same rate of deaths. “They basically had to guess at a dose to use and decided to ‘hit hard.’” Staley says.“It was not some government conspiracy that picked a high dose of AZT; it was a fear that hitting the virus too lightly wouldn’t do the trick.” > > That did have negative consequences, notably bone marrow toxicity which manifested as anemia, but those side-effects were easy to diagnose and could be reversed by lowering the dosage or stopping the drug altogether. The more things change… ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2020, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-straight-dope-on-the-vaccine/854494/10 "2020-05-26T18:35:17Z")
> [@Esprise\_Me](#): > > Right, the article talks about that. It’s something a lot of people might not consider; it’s not just about hitting on the magic formula, it’s also about getting the dose right. But also, even the optimal dose might have some negative effects, at least on some people. Maybe that’s outweighed by the benefit. A lot goes into this process. Totally get the qualitative principle here, but what does this mean in practice? Would a company like Moderna (for example) have several cohorts of test subjects each getting a different dose? Are they expected to have that sewn up before moving to Phase III? Are they likely to have some sort of coarse answer by some date, but then 6-18 months later we’ll know much better what the right dosage is (like your AZT example)? ---
**Author:** ![Esprise\_Me](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/esprise_me/32/2947_2.png) [@Esprise\_Me](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Esprise_Me)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2020, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-straight-dope-on-the-vaccine/854494/11 "2020-05-26T19:15:59Z")
As I understand it, right now they’re looking at how people react (if test subjects react badly, the dose needs to be lowered) and antibodies (if test subjects don’t produce antibodies at levels similar to those who’ve recovered from the disease, the dose needs to be raised.) It sounds like there are 3 different doses currently being tested; this guy got the highest dose, and that may be too high. OTOH, he was only sick for a day; if the lower doses turn out to be ineffective, his dose may be the one we need. Of course, the idea that the antibodies confer immunity is still just a working hypothesis that will need to be tested, either over a long period of time, or with human challenge trials to deliberately try to infect the people who have been vaccinated. I’m not a medical professional, though, so I may have it wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2020, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-straight-dope-on-the-vaccine/854494/12 "2020-05-26T19:49:02Z")
> [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](#): > > I have heard opinions ranging from “we’ve never developed a vaccine for a coronavirus, so don’t get your hopes up” to “12-18 months best case” (Fauci) to “we’re going to do it by October” (Trump, with oddly suspicious timing.) I just wanted to touch on a couple points here. First, it is true, we have never developed a vaccine for a corona virus. As most of the other corona virus infections are minor, cold-like illnesses they has not been much incentive to develop a vaccine. They were attempting to make one for SARS, but SARS became a non-issue before they could do that. With the disappearance of SARS as a threat we have not had the incentive to pursue one, but now we most definitely do have incentive to make a vaccine and to do so rapidly. Hence, people saying “12-18 months best case” even as others say “we’ve never done this”. In their own way, they are both correct and true, but context helps. Of course, it may take longer than 18 months. And there may be other issues, like dosage problems or side effects. It will be a rocky road ahead. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2020, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-straight-dope-on-the-vaccine/854494/13 "2020-05-26T20:25:40Z")
We’ve made a vaccine for canine coronavirus. 12-18 months is just a super best case scenario, if everything goes well. As I said above, some things need time if you are trying to do it remotely correctly. ---
**Author:** ![Kevbo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e47774/32.png) [@Kevbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kevbo)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2020, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-straight-dope-on-the-vaccine/854494/14 "2020-05-27T01:05:09Z")
Vaccines function by provoking a response from the immune system. Some of the symptoms of many illnesses, fever for example, are a result of the immune system, not to action of the actual pathogen. For this reason it is not uncommon to have some symtoms after being vaccinated. For well crafted vaccines these tend to be rare, mild and short lived…but this is why people will claim they “got sick” after a flu shot, for example. Of course many pathogens DO directly damage the body, but these wouldn’t be described as the flu-like or cold-like symptoms that are mostly artifacts of immunoresponse. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2020, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-straight-dope-on-the-vaccine/854494/15 "2020-05-27T01:50:28Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > … They were attempting to make one for SARS, but SARS became a non-issue before they could do that. … > [@Kevbo](#): > > Vaccines function by provoking a response from the immune system. Some of the symptoms of many illnesses, fever for example, are a result of the immune system, not to action of the actual pathogen. … There in fact was a good amount of work that continued on trying to develop a SARS vaccine for years after the 2002 outbreak. And several candidates emerged that provided decent protection from infection. Testing progressed [into 2012](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3335060/) at least. Problem was that in animal models while they protected against infection, and good titers, they also provoked T cell responses on challenge to the virus that got out of control and led to serious pathology. We know that infection with SARS-CoV-2 can cause T cell mediated over-reaction harms. The presumption is that Pediatric Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome (that Kawasaki like entity) is one portion of that spectrum, as are many of the adults who get very ill. IF a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine does infrequently trigger such a “vaccine enhancement” response from the immune system, like how the ones for SARS-CoV sets up the immune system to dysfunctionally respond when exposed, a rushed process will not reveal it. Minimally the rushed process would result in its showing it not in animal studies but in large human trials. And that happening with one rushed to large human trial product will push the others all back. There really aren’t too many shortcuts that don’t risk making things take longer. ---
**Author:** ![Melbourne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5e925/32.png) [@Melbourne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melbourne)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2020, 10:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-straight-dope-on-the-vaccine/854494/16 "2020-05-27T10:59:42Z")
> [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](#): > > Would a company like Moderna (for example) have several cohorts of test subjects each getting a different dose? Yes. I don’t know what they mean, but I’m seeing numbers like “25%”, “50%” etc, along with the possibility that there might nor be any overlap between the “not dangerous” and the “effective” doses. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2020, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-straight-dope-on-the-vaccine/854494/17 "2020-05-27T16:25:15Z")
Does anyone have any information on vaccines other than the (to me, not very credible) announcement from Moderna? I gather there are a bunch of them, in a bunch of countries, moving forward, and some building on foundations laid during SARS, but I don’t understand it. Is anyone keeping track of the various vaccine projects in one nice central place? (This thread would be convenient.) [It seems we can at least save the ferrets.](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/potential-covid-19-vaccine-clears-major-milestone-1.5583741) ---
**Author:** ![Esprise\_Me](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/esprise_me/32/2947_2.png) [@Esprise\_Me](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Esprise_Me)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2020, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-straight-dope-on-the-vaccine/854494/18 "2020-05-27T16:38:34Z")
Here’s an article that talks about the various trials: [https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/27/health/coronavirus-vaccine-oxford-eprise/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/27/health/coronavirus-vaccine-oxford-eprise/index.html) > [@](#): > > There are currently 10 vaccines in human clinical trials worldwide, according to the World Health Organization. Four of the teams are in the United States: Moderna, Pfizer, Inovio and Novavax. > > Five Chinese companies have vaccines in human trials. Oxford is the only one in Europe. Worldwide, there are 114 more candidates in pre-clinical trial stages. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2020, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-straight-dope-on-the-vaccine/854494/19 "2020-05-27T16:43:29Z")
Dr. Drake, start reading posts from this Google search: database covid vaccines: [https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=database+covid+vaccines](https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=database+covid+vaccines) For example here is an article from yesterday on top 5 possibilities: [https://allianceforscience.cornell.edu/blog/2020/05/what-are-the-top-5-most-promising-covid-19-vaccine-candidates/](https://allianceforscience.cornell.edu/blog/2020/05/what-are-the-top-5-most-promising-covid-19-vaccine-candidates/) ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2020, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-straight-dope-on-the-vaccine/854494/20 "2020-05-27T16:50:13Z")
Thanks, both. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-the-straight-dope-on-the-vaccine/854494.md?page=2)