# What's Trump's October Surprise? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 17, 2020, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544 "2020-07-17T03:13:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2020, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/183 "2020-09-23T01:56:43Z")
> [@Bill\_Door](#): > > It would probably amaze you to learn how little comfort I find in that particular datum. Better than one chance in five that a sociopathic narcissist will win a second term; this one unchecked by needing to keep his reelection viable is not reassuring. One chance in five odds come in all the time. Sure, but by looking at what would happen elsewhere, the senate may also change hands, serious impeachment would be back on the menu if he manages to win somehow. Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. ---
**Author:** ![elbows](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/b3f665/32.png) [@elbows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elbows)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2020, 12:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/184 "2020-09-23T12:09:28Z")
Now I’m thinking his October Surprise will be to make peace with China, (I think there’s a chance they’re both using this conflict to look tough, fully knowing it’s for show!), all the farmers and tech reliant will cheer. The world markets and the dollar will jump and people will be relieved. All this AFTER fanning the flames in Democratic cities till he can call in Nat. guard to restore order. Maybe he’ll even announce he’s closing the child internment camps, then, of course fail to do so. Also he’ll announce he’s got the vaccine and you’re all surely saved! But, of course, it will turn out, he doesn’t know what he’s talking about. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2020, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/185 "2020-09-23T14:06:23Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Sure, but by looking at what would happen elsewhere, the senate may also change hands, serious impeachment would be back on the menu if he manages to win somehow. It takes a 2/3 vote of the Senate (i.e. 67 Senators) to remove a President in an impeachment trial. Democrats _at best_ could get to 52 or 53 seats if everything broke their way. More likely is a 1-seat advantage or a 50-50 tie with the VP breaking the deadlock. ---
**Author:** ![Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de053/32.png) [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackknifed_Juggernaut)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2020, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/186 "2020-09-23T22:25:07Z")
He probably won’t need an October Surprise if you believe this article: > **[The Election That Could Break America](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/)** > > If the vote is close, Donald Trump could easily throw the election into chaos and subvert the result. Who will stop him? ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2020, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/187 "2020-09-24T00:25:18Z")
That’s a fantastic article. Which is why I quoted extensively from it in the “How Can Trump Stay On” thread: > [@How Trump can lose and stay on. Opinions?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-trump-can-lose-and-stay-on-opinions/834091/311): > > [The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:%2BTheAtlantic%2B%28The%2BAtlantic%2B-%2BMaster%2BFeed%29) > > ### [The Election That Could Break America](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:%2BTheAtlantic%2B%28The%2BAtlantic%2B-%2BMaster%2BFeed%29) > > If the vote is close, Donald Trump could easily throw the election into chaos and subvert the result. Who will stop him? > > > … **The worst case, however, is not that Trump rejects the election outcome. The worst case is that he uses his power to prevent a decisive outcome against him.** If Trump sheds all restraint, and if his Republican allies play the parts he assigns them, he could obstruct the emergence of a legally unambiguous victory for Biden in the Electoral College and then in Congress. He could prevent the formation of consensus about whether there is any outcome at all. He could seize on that un­certainty to hold on to power. > > > > Trump’s state and national legal teams are already laying the groundwork for postelection maneuvers that would circumvent the results of the vote count in battleground states. Ambiguities in the Constitution and logic bombs in the [Electoral Count Act](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/09/trump-biden-electoral-count-act-1887/615994/) make it possible to extend the dispute all the way to Inauguration Day, which would bring the nation to a precipice. The Twentieth Amendment is crystal clear that the president’s term in office “shall end” at noon on January 20, but two men could show up to be sworn in. One of them would arrive with all the tools and power of the presidency already in hand. > > > > “We are not prepared for this at all,” Julian Zelizer, a Prince­ton professor of history and public affairs, told me. “We talk about it, some worry about it, and we imagine what it would be. But few people have actual answers to what happens if the machinery of democracy is used to prevent a legitimate resolution to the election.” > > > > … > > > > **“Our Constitution does not secure the peaceful transition of power, but rather presupposes it,”** the legal scholar Lawrence Douglas wrote in a recent book titled simply [_Will He Go?_](https://www.twelvebooks.com/titles/lawrence-douglas/will-he-go/9781538751886/) > > > > … > > > > Right now, the best we can do is an ad hoc defense of democracy. **Begin by rejecting the temptation to think that this election will carry on as elections usually do. Something far out of the norm is likely to happen.** Probably more than one thing. Expecting other­wise will dull our reflexes. It will lull us into spurious hope that Trump is tractable to forces that constrain normal incumbents. > > > > If you are a voter, think about voting in person after all. More than half a million postal votes were [rejected](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/rejected-mail-ballots/2020/08/23/397fbe92-db3d-11ea-809e-b8be57ba616e_story.html) in this year’s primaries, even without Trump trying to suppress them. If you are at relatively low risk for COVID-19, volunteer to work at the polls. If you know people who are open to reason, spread word that it is normal for the results to keep changing after Election Night. If you manage news coverage, anticipate extra­constitutional measures, and position reporters and crews to respond to them. If you are an election administrator, plan for contingencies you never had to imagine before. If you are a mayor, consider how to deploy your police to ward off interlopers with bad intent. If you are a law-enforcement officer, protect the freedom to vote. If you are a legislator, choose not to participate in chicanery. If you are a judge on the bench in a battleground state, refresh your acquaintance with election case law. If you have a place in the military chain of command, remember your duty to turn aside unlawful orders. If you are a civil servant, know that your country needs you more than ever to do the right thing when you’re asked to do otherwise. > > > > Take agency. An election cannot be stolen unless the American people, at some level, acquiesce. > > … > > My bold. > > Is there anyone left here who thinks trump is going to give up the WH peacefully, like a grownup? After all, he contested the last election **that he won!** ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2020, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/188 "2020-09-24T01:02:06Z")
> [@How Trump can lose and stay on. Opinions?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-trump-can-lose-and-stay-on-opinions/834091/311): > > [The Election That Could Break America](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:%2BTheAtlantic%2B%28The%2BAtlantic%2B-%2BMaster%2BFeed%29) > … Begin by rejecting the temptation to think that this election will carry on as elections usually do. Something far out of the norm is likely to happen. Probably more than one thing. **Expecting other­wise will dull our reflexes. It will lull us into spurious hope that Trump is tractable to forces that constrain normal incumbents.** … A major concern is that all the training most television and radio (and many print) journalists have undergone teaches them that their job is to Reassure the Public that This New Thing Isn’t All That Different From the Normal Thing. Don’t worry, be happpy! You hear this all the time, particularly from TV anchors. After a guest details some very alarming fact about the upcoming election, the anchor will provide a Comforting Wrap-Up\* that assures viewers that it’s really not all that big a deal; we’re on top of this! And of course we probably are NOT On Top of This. It’s certainly too late to retrain them. They believe quite sincerely that even if Trump remains after January 21, things will go on As Normal. They won’t. Many in the media therefore are working for Trump, whether they are aware of it or not. The view that ‘it will all work out’ is deeply dangerous to our democratic republic. All we can do is call out this unwarranted Pollyanna Sleepy-Time attitude where we see it. It will help, too, to keep available clear looks at reality such as that excellent new article in _The Atlantic_. (my bolding in quote) . . . . . \*I HATE the Comforting Wrap-up. If only there were a button to push on remote controls, so that a banana-cream pie would immediately be thrown in the face of every anchor who offers a Comforting Wrap-up… ---
**Author:** ![razordance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e47774/32.png) [@razordance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/razordance)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2020, 5:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/189 "2020-09-25T05:12:23Z")
Then the Trump team needs to make it a million-to-one shot – as the late Sir Pterry could tell you, those ALWAYS pay off! But you have to take a lot of trouble to get the odds there! Donald, try calling all women “sperm catchers” and use the n-word a lot! ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2020, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/190 "2020-09-30T00:53:15Z")
Two possbilities I can think of for an October Surprise: 1. Revelations about ‘Crossfire Hurricane’. Discovery in the Michael Flynn trial is exposing all kinds of malfeasance by the FBI andthe Meuller investigation. If the Durham report comes out in October (it probably won’t but…) it may come with indictments of some high level officials like Andrew McCabe. > **[Chairman Graham Releases Information from DNI Ratcliffe on FBI’s Handling of...](https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/press/rep/releases/chairman-graham-releases-information-from-dni-ratcliffe-on-fbis-handling-of-crossfire-hurricane)** > > United States Senate Committee on the Judiciary > **[New FBI document confirms the Trump campaign was investigated without...](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/499586-new-fbi-document-confirms-the-trump-campaign-was-investigated-without/)** > > The document created by Peter Strzok clearly establishes that ‘Crossfire Hurricane’ was an illicit, made-up investigation. > **[It’s Official: Every Aspect of Crossfire Hurricane Was Shady | National Review](https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/its-official-every-aspect-of-crossfire-hurricane-was-shady/)** > > The official explanation would be a lot easier to believe if every other aspect of the Russia-collusion investigation didn’t reek of corruption. 1. This one is a wildcard, but we could see a major peace deal with Saudi Arabia joining Bahrain, Serbia, Kosovo and Oman in recognizing Israel and normalizing relations. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2020, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/191 "2020-09-30T01:26:01Z")
What a coincidence that both of these would benefit Trump! What are the chances, coming from you? ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2020, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/192 "2020-09-30T01:33:24Z")
Oh, sorry. I wasn’t aware that only one side’s ‘October Surprise’ counts. ---
**Author:** ![Ann\_Hedonia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ann_hedonia/32/319_2.png) [@Ann\_Hedonia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ann_Hedonia)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2020, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/193 "2020-09-30T03:19:08Z")
You know, those clowns have been trying to indict McCabe for forever, but speculation is they haven’t been able to get a grand jury to “true bill” it. And the idea that the investigation was unjustified is bullshit. The bar for starting a preliminary investigation is pretty damn low. The mere presence of Page and Papadopoulos on Trump’s foreign policy team would’ve been enough. Flynn’s publicly published Op-Ed supporting Turkey would’ve been enough on its own to trigger a FARA investigation. Frankly, given Trump’s multiple associations with known felons - both at home and abroad-, it would’ve been derelict for our intelligence agencies not to keep an eye on his campaign. All Durham is doing is combing through all the records of a very extensive and complicated investigation looking for procedural errors and investigative shortcuts. They’ve found a few but probably no more than they would’ve found if they gave that level of after the fact scrutiny to any major case. It’s bullshit designed to intimidate. Trump doesn’t get investigated more than any other President because his enemies are out to get him. He gets investigated more for the same reason that the Joker gets investigated more than Commissioner Gordon. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2020, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/194 "2020-09-30T03:22:00Z")
Just some gentle ribbing at, let’s say, your inclination to only see what might go wrong for Biden. ---
**Author:** ![ParallelLines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/parallellines/32/3575_2.png) [@ParallelLines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParallelLines)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2020, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/195 "2020-09-30T16:58:50Z")
A surprise (and not a pleasant one for Trump) I’d like to see in October is an arrest of one or more of his children on Tax Evasion charges in state court. With bond denied for flight risk of course. Yeah, I know it isn’t going to happen, but a man can dream, right? And yes, I also realize that even the least savvy individuals would realize it would be politically motivated, but really, why not, it’s not like it isn’t likely legitimate, which is more than we can say of some of the Trump DOJ investigations. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2020, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/196 "2020-09-30T23:53:04Z")
NPR said that ICE is planning big immigration raids. This is a _self-destructive_ October surprise, because it could so easily piss off (I almost said “alienate”) Latino voters, who are showing an (astonishing) small bump for Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Guest-starring\_Id](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guest-starring_id/32/21736_2.png) [@Guest-starring\_Id](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Guest-starring_Id)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2020, 5:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/197 "2020-10-01T05:43:58Z")
Three-pronged: Mar-A-Lago getting converted into Proud Boys HQ, as the eventual underwear-on-the-outside edict gets under way. Then the Flying Monkeys are dispatched. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2020, 11:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/198 "2020-10-01T11:51:54Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > NPR said that ICE is planning big immigration raids. This is a _self-destructive_ October surprise, because it could so easily piss off (I almost said “alienate”) Latino voters, who are showing an (astonishing) small bump for Trump. Wow. Dumbasses. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2020, 11:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/199 "2020-10-01T11:53:56Z")
> [@Guest-starring\_Id](#): > > underwear-on-the-outside edict That would be a travesty of a sham of a circus inside a dumpster fire inside a train wreck (to quite Fielding Jake Mellish Tappert). ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2020, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/200 "2020-10-01T17:09:09Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > What a coincidence that both of these would benefit Trump! What are the chances, coming from you? Moderating: No personal insults, please. No warning. ---
**Author:** ![Temporary\_Name](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8c91f0/32.png) [@Temporary\_Name](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Temporary_Name)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2020, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/201 "2020-10-01T18:20:06Z")
The pre-October surprise I feared previously was that some senior staff member would sit Trump down and explain to him that the entire White House and Republican Party is solidly behind him (even those crackpots at Lincoln Project who are just doing this stuff for the money). But that is not enough these days. We are ALL behind you, but to stay in power and finish your great plan we are going to need to ‘trick’ some of the left to vote with us. You are gonna have to give them something, and act respectful to the moderate ones until after the election. Then once you are reelected we can throw them under the bus and go back to business as usual. In other words con Trump into trying to con the moderates by buddying up to us. I believe there are a LOT of Republican moderates who _know_ Trump is bad – but want to vote for him anyway if he would just be a little more - - - reasonable (/sane/human/presidential/humble/etc.) They are looking for an excuse to vote for Trump and if he would court them rather than the hard core supporters on the far right, he could win this election. Fortunately for all sane people, the debate on Tuesday night proved that he CAN’T be anything other than an extremist, a hate monger, bully, cheat, completely soulless, and of course the usual litany of racist-sexist-corrupt and so on that is too well established to be questioned. As with all things Trump, his own hubris and horribly out of place sense of “normalcy” will be his undoing. I do not want to tempt fate but at this point it seems to be too late to correct this remarkably stupid strategy with only weeks to the last of these election days. Of course a reversal now would be very transparent and seen for the manipulation it would be, but mostly he is just constitutionally (sorry, bad choice of words). By his very makeup Trump is unable to do the smart thing, he would rather be tough than be smart. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2020, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/202 "2020-10-01T20:34:05Z")
I think he could come up with a reason to bomb Iran or some other place. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544.md?page=11)