# What's Trump's October Surprise? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 17, 2020, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544 "2020-07-17T03:13:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2020, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/103 "2020-08-12T18:30:04Z")
> [@elbows](#): > > (If you’re thinking how much worse can it get, truly? He’s just getting started, he’s got plans I’m pretty sure. You ain’t seen nothing yet, is my guess!) Trump has plans? LOL. He no more has plans than I have wings. But his goons, that’s another story. Barr probably plans to make an arrest in Oct. Hunter? Who knows? Hillary? At least Comey is a private citizen now. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2020, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/104 "2020-08-12T18:44:21Z")
> [@Hari\_Seldon](#): > > Trump has plans? LOL. QFT. Trumps plans go no further than how to get another Quarter Pounder (no pickles, extra ketchup). ---
**Author:** ![cmkeller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cmkeller/32/118_2.png) [@cmkeller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmkeller)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2020, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/105 "2020-08-13T16:44:35Z")
It’s a bit early, but brokering a peace treaty between Israel and the UAE might be his “October Surprise.” Especially if a few more Gulf States follow suit (Oman and Bahrain both seem pretty close to ready) before the end of October. He might get some traction trying to sell himself as a great peacemaker. ---
**Author:** ![begbert2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/begbert2/32/3357_2.png) [@begbert2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/begbert2)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2020, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/106 "2020-08-13T19:17:09Z")
Similarly, he could demonstrate that he is able to fly and heal the sick with a touch. That would probably make an impression. ---
**Author:** ![Skunkdog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c2a13f/32.png) [@Skunkdog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skunkdog)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2020, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/107 "2020-08-13T19:42:20Z")
Migrant caravans anyone? ---
**Author:** ![cmkeller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cmkeller/32/118_2.png) [@cmkeller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmkeller)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/108 "2020-08-14T01:07:20Z")
Is that meant to imply that Trump’s role in brokering the treaty is imaginary? Both sides, as far as I can see, have given Trump significant credit for it. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/109 "2020-08-14T04:40:56Z")
At the debate, Trump talks about how he was closely involved in making the deal at every step along the way and all credit is due to him. Biden then asks Trump what the letters UAE stand for and Trump is unable to answer the question. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/110 "2020-08-14T05:04:49Z")
> [@cmkeller](#): > > It’s a bit early, but brokering a peace treaty between Israel and the UAE might be his “October Surprise.” Especially if a few more Gulf States follow suit (Oman and Bahrain both seem pretty close to ready) before the end of October. He might get some traction trying to sell himself as a great peacemaker. So 1,000 Americans die a day due to a global pandemic that most Americans agree has been handled terribly by the Trump admin. And we’re going to have upwards of 200,000 dead Americans by Election Day. And the economy is shitting the bed worse than it’s done in almost a century. And our nation’s schools are epically failing at trying to figure out how to put a semester together without federal guidance or assistance. And our mail system is being sabotaged at a time when people are relying on mail service more than ever. But Trump’s gonna turn it all around with a deal between UAE and Israel? And maybe Oman and Bahrain? Nope, not seeing it. Elections aren’t won on international shit. Especially when our domestic situation is as perilous as it currently is. Plus, I guarantee a solid majority of voters would have a hard time locating any of those countries on a globe, let alone give a shit if there’s peace there while Americans are fucking dying at unholy rates and losing our jobs and homes. > [@cmkeller](#): > > Is that meant to imply that Trump’s role in brokering the treaty is imaginary? Both sides, as far as I can see, have given Trump significant credit for it. Does anyone think this is the best use of his time and energy right now? Does anyone give a flying fig about any of this right now? ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/111 "2020-08-14T05:06:35Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Biden then asks Trump what the letters UAE stand for and Trump is unable to answer the question. No, Trump can easily answer that question: “Joe, I’m surprised that you don’t know. Everybody knows that UAE stands for the Union of American Employees, a very fine organization…” ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 5:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/112 "2020-08-14T05:25:41Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Does anyone think this is the best use of his time and energy right now? Does anyone give a flying fig about any of this right now? Agreed. Over a thousand dead in the U.S. every day from COVID-19, 30 million unemployed, small businesses dying, and his priorities include: - Nerf the USPS - Demand that showers and toilets deliver better water pressure - Middle East peace treaties ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 5:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/113 "2020-08-14T05:42:52Z")
Let’s not forget about defunding Social Security. It’s not like we really need it anymore; what with the way Covid 19 is killing off the old people. ---
**Author:** ![cmkeller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cmkeller/32/118_2.png) [@cmkeller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmkeller)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 8:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/114 "2020-08-14T08:39:30Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > So 1,000 Americans die a day due to a global pandemic that most Americans agree has been handled terribly by the Trump admin. (snipped for brevity, point is gotten without the middle) But Trump’s gonna turn it all around with a deal between UAE and Israel? And maybe Oman and Bahrain? Nope, not seeing it. So it might not be a successful attempt. Last I heard, an “October Surprise” was merely in a politician’s trying to pull a last-minute rabbit out of his (or her) hat, not necessarily that it succeeds in swaying the electorate. > [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Elections aren’t won on international shit. Wasn’t the original “October Surprise” about international shit? > [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Plus, I guarantee a solid majority of voters would have a hard time locating any of those countries on a globe, let alone give a shit if there’s peace there while Americans are fucking dying at unholy rates and losing our jobs and homes. Plenty of Americans know that peace between Israel and a country with “Arab” in the name is a big deal, even if they couldn’t place them accurately on a world map. That said, my point above still stands - it’s still an “October Surprise” even if it doesn’t work. > [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Does anyone think this is the best use of his time and energy right now? Does anyone give a flying fig about any of this right now? If Trump thinks anyone does, then that’s all that matters to make it his attempt at an “October Surprise”. Also, do you really think that whatever work he did on the Israel-UAE deal was only done just now? I’m sure that these were years of negotiations, and it just happens to be now that the parties signed on the dotted lines. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 11:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/115 "2020-08-14T11:45:00Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Does anyone think this is the best use of his time and energy right now? Does anyone give a flying fig about any of this right now? Also agree. And also think it may blow up in their faces. Everything he touches turns to shit. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/116 "2020-08-14T12:17:58Z")
> [@cmkeller](#): > > Plenty of Americans know that peace between Israel and a country with “Arab” in the name is a big deal, even if they couldn’t place them accurately on a world map. That said, my point above still stands - it’s still an “October Surprise” even if it doesn’t work. _B-b-b-but I thought we didn’t like those A-rabs and the guys who wear long dresses and head thingies. 😟 Isn’t the Middle East where all the terrorists come from? Aren’t these the dudes you banned from entering the USA when you first ~~ascended to the throne~~ became prez? I don’t unnnersand, mr. president. But if you say this is a good thing, then I guess it must be…_ ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/117 "2020-08-14T13:55:02Z")
> [@cmkeller](#): > > Wasn’t the original “October Surprise” about international shit? Are you talking about Nixon and Vietnam? That announcement 100% involved Americans. It may have involved a foreign war, but it was hardly just a peace treaty being signed between two foreign entities in far-away lands. > [@cmkeller](#): > > I’m sure that these were years of negotiations, and it just happens to be now that the parties signed on the dotted lines. If that’s the case, then this is by no means an “October surprise.” Or even an August one. An October surprise is a deliberately created news event, not something that “just happens to be now.” ETA: Although I suppose it would indeed be surprising to have evidence of Trump actually doing any work over the past four years. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/118 "2020-08-14T14:08:20Z")
My memory may be flawed, but the first “October surprise” I can remember was the conspiracy theory that Carter actually had a deal worked out with Iran to release the hostages in mid-1980, but they were waiting until 2-3 weeks before the election for maximum impact. Obviously, none of that was true. ---
**Author:** ![SwissMan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e79b87/32.png) [@SwissMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SwissMan)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/119 "2020-08-14T14:51:49Z")
Yes, the original October Surprise was in regards to the Iranian hostage crisis. Conspiracy theorists on the right were making the allegation that Carter was going to bring the hostages home just in time for voting day. Given how badly Carter lost, I don’t know if it would have made a difference anyhow. Of course, there are conspiracy theorists on the left who have also alleged that George H.W. Bush was using his back-channel CIA contacts to delay the hostages release, but that’s another story. ---
**Author:** ![Mallard](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b9bd4f/32.png) [@Mallard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mallard)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/120 "2020-08-14T15:03:05Z")
Start a war with Canada, like the US president (Alan Alda) did in Canadian Bacon. 🤪 ---
**Author:** ![Mallard](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b9bd4f/32.png) [@Mallard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mallard)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/121 "2020-08-14T15:06:08Z")
News that there was a peace accord for Vietnam just days before the 1972 election that saw Nixon propelled to a landslide victory. (not to mention Suzie sorority of the silent majority coming through) ---
**Author:** ![cmkeller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cmkeller/32/118_2.png) [@cmkeller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmkeller)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/122 "2020-08-14T17:57:58Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Are you talking about Nixon and Vietnam? My recollection (as others have already responded) was that it related to Iran in the 1980 election > [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > If that’s the case, then this is by no means an “October surprise.” Or even an August one. An October surprise is a deliberately created news event, not something that “just happens to be now.” Trump said he’s planning to stage a big signing ceremony around it. That would be a deliberately created news event to keep Trumpian goodness in the forefront of peoples’ consciousness at election time. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544.md?page=7)