# What's Trump's October Surprise? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 17, 2020, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544 "2020-07-17T03:13:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2020, 5:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/163 "2020-09-04T05:20:24Z")
This is exactly what could bring Trump down. This information, when combined with the multiple times he disparaged war heroes, including the late Sen. John McCain, as LOSERS for getting captured, may finally undermine him with some of his supporters. **May** being a key word. I read the article and in particular the section about Trump’s visit to Arlington with former DNS John Kelly strikes me as repulsive. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2020, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/164 "2020-09-04T12:59:08Z")
Nothing Trump says will be his undoing. That ship sailed before he even became President. It’s the current state of the nation and how much of the negatives can be traced to Trump’s policies. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2020, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/165 "2020-09-04T13:13:50Z")
Normally I would agree but his approval numbers among members of the military have been dropping. And if these accusations stick they could do real damage to him. Shitting on the military is never a winning proposition when among conservatives. It doesn’t have to convert any of them to vote D. Just making some less likely to vote at all is enough. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2020, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/166 "2020-09-04T14:52:06Z")
Also-- and I don’t have a cite for this-- I read recently that military support is declining because members of the military don’t want to be turned into a trump police force sent into cities to crack down on their fellow citizens. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2020, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/167 "2020-09-04T20:43:03Z")
Trump will wonder why they don’t want to use their beautiful bullets. He still doesn’t understand why he can launch nukes at any one that disses him. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2020, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/168 "2020-09-05T12:55:36Z")
We’ve got Trump fatigue - what’s left that could be surprising. Unless, maybe he shows up for a rally in a raincoat and after an hour of babbling build up flashes the crowd; bathing the faithful in his corpulent radiance and revealing that he is a natural orange. That would be a surprise. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2020, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/169 "2020-09-19T04:58:55Z")
Well, looks like Trump got his October surprise, a few weeks early. Not sure if it works in his favor or against him though. He could still have a semi-surprise in October if Clarence Thomas retires. ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2020, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/170 "2020-09-19T05:16:55Z")
Jerry Falwell Jr. has accepted the nomination. With his recent affairs, he will continue with viewing rights of other men and women equally. ---
**Author:** ![Senegoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senegoid/32/6606_2.png) [@Senegoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Senegoid)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2020, 8:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/171 "2020-09-20T08:00:55Z")
> [@Locrian](#): > > Jerry Falwell Jr. has accepted the nomination. With his recent affairs, he will continue with viewing rights of other men and women equally You mean, he will find other men and women to continue granting him “viewing” rights? ---
**Author:** ![beowulff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beowulff/32/542_2.png) [@beowulff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beowulff)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2020, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/172 "2020-09-20T16:37:44Z")
**What’s Trump’s October Surprise?** Well, this isn’t it: > **[The White House botched a deal to lower prescription prices because drug...](https://www.yahoo.com/news/white-house-botched-deal-lower-004923219.html)** > > Chief of staff Mark Meadows said if a deal wasn't reached, he would say "PhRMA walked away because of dissent within the industry over sharing costs." ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2020, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/173 "2020-09-20T16:44:12Z")
Even Big Pharma feels dirty dealing with Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2020, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/174 "2020-09-20T17:42:56Z")
> [@Nonsuch](#): > > I don’t think the real “October” surprises are going to come from Trump’s camp. You probably have all read or heard about [“Trump: Americans Who Died in War Are ‘Losers’ and Suckers’,”](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/09/trump-americans-who-died-at-war-are-losers-and-suckers/615997/?utm_source=feed) just published by The Atlantic. As used to Trump’s degradations as we think we are, this is still going to take up a lot of oxygen over the next few days, and Trump and his surrogates will be spending time [defending Trump](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/04/trump-responds-to-insults-us-service-members-408750) when they’d rather be attacking Biden. I fully expect more revelations like this to appear over the next eight weeks, as Trump’s inner circle becomes more emboldened to dish about him. Almost three weeks later and it hasn’t moved the needle; arguably Trump has come up slightly since this was posted. ---
**Author:** ![Senegoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senegoid/32/6606_2.png) [@Senegoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Senegoid)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2020, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/175 "2020-09-20T20:49:59Z")
> [@beowulff](#): > > **What’s Trump’s October Surprise?** > Well, this isn’t it: > [The White House botched a deal to lower prescription prices because drug companies wouldn't budge on its request to pay for $100 gift cards that would've been mailed to seniors before the election](https://www.yahoo.com/news/white-house-botched-deal-lower-004923219.html) Some article I saw on this a few days ago suggested that Trump was demanding to have his signature on all those $100 pharma gift cards. ---
**Author:** ![razordance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e47774/32.png) [@razordance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/razordance)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2020, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/176 "2020-09-20T23:26:52Z")
At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if the October Surprise involved a cake dancer. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/177 "2020-09-21T17:21:01Z")
> [@Hari\_Seldon](#): > > Almost three weeks later and it hasn’t moved the needle; arguably Trump has come up slightly since this was posted. 🤔 According to 538, Trump has gone down from having close to 30 in 100 chances for winning to 22 in 100 now. > **[2020 Election Forecast](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/)** > > Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/178 "2020-09-21T18:49:04Z")
With all the Vote by Mail, the surprise better happen pretty soon. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/179 "2020-09-21T19:06:18Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > According to 538, Trump has gone down from having close to 30 in 100 chances for winning to 22 in 100 now. I think that that change is primarily due to the confidence intervals shrinking as we get more polls and we get closer to the election. The polls have been very steady. To the OP, I posted the following to the TACFITM thread but was it was immediately overshadowed by the news of RBG’s death. Perhaps it could find a better home here. > [@The Trump Administration: A Clusterfuck in the Making Part Deux (Part 1)](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-administration-a-clusterfuck-in-the-making-part-deux-part-1/911083/3752): > > ### [Assange lawyer says Trump offered a deal to avoid extradition in exchange for…](https://www.sunjournal.com/2020/09/18/assange-lawyer-says-trump-offered-a-deal-to-avoid-extradition-in-exchange-for-documents/?rel=related) > > The alleged “win-win” deal by President Donald Trump would allow Assange to avoid extradition to the U.S. if he revealed the source of a leak of documents from the Democratic Party ahead of the 2016 election. > > How much do you want to bet that the source of the leaks will “stunningly” be found to be Seth Rich, or the Ukrainians or Joe Biden himself. Anyone but the Russians. > > 🤢 ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2020, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/180 "2020-09-22T23:26:41Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > I think that that change is primarily due to the confidence intervals shrinking as we get more polls and we get closer to the election. The polls have been very steady. I listen to the Model Talk 538 podcast. The other reason is that the model puts more weight on the “fundamentals” (economy etc) a ways before the election and slowly gives more weight to the polls as the election gets closer. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2020, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/181 "2020-09-22T23:55:27Z")
Yes, it basically comes down to the same thing. He’s using a Bayesian modeling with a prior based on the “fundamentals” So as the level of uncertainty in the polling data decreases its weight in the model increases. The result of this is that not only will the confidence levels decrease, but the means will shift away from the fundamental assumption as well. This is why he said at one point if the election were held that day Biden would have a 90%+ probability of victory (ignoring the effect of Covid and Republican shenanigans on voting). Given how steady the polls are, I think that vicinity is probably where his model will end up on November 3rd. ---
**Author:** ![Bill\_Door](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@Bill\_Door](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bill_Door)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2020, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544/182 "2020-09-23T01:34:25Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > According to 538, Trump has gone down from having close to 30 in 100 chances for winning to 22 in 100 now. It would probably amaze you to learn how little comfort I find in that particular datum. Better than one chance in five that a sociopathic narcissist will win a second term; this one unchecked by needing to keep his reelection viable is not reassuring. One chance in five odds come in all the time. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-trumps-october-surprise/915544.md?page=10)