# What's up with Iran's population pyramid?
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-up-with-irans-population-pyramid/714762
**Category:** Factual Questions
**Created:** [March 11, 2015, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-up-with-irans-population-pyramid/714762 "2015-03-11T16:41:41Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@Hermitian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hermitian)
#### Post date: [March 11, 2015, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-up-with-irans-population-pyramid/714762/1 "2015-03-11T16:41:41Z")
Population pyramid for [Iran](http://www.indexmundi.com/graphs/population-pyramids/iran-population-pyramid-2014.gif).
It looks like they had a big baby boom 20-30 years ago and then followed that with a sharp reduction in births. What caused this?
The US had baby booms in the past but our baby boom was not this drastic ([US](http://www.indexmundi.com/graphs/population-pyramids/united-states-population-pyramid-2014.gif) pyramid).
Also, here is [Iraq](http://www.indexmundi.com/graphs/population-pyramids/iraq-population-pyramid-2014.gif) for comparison.
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### Author:  [@jharvey963](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jharvey963)
#### Post date: [March 11, 2015, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-up-with-irans-population-pyramid/714762/2 "2015-03-11T17:12:32Z")
The Iranian revolution happened in 1979. I was thinking “revolutionary fervor” (or maybe shortages of birth control) caused it. However, while close, the years don’t line up.
J.
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### Author:  [@jharvey963](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jharvey963)
#### Post date: [March 11, 2015, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-up-with-irans-population-pyramid/714762/3 "2015-03-11T17:14:50Z")
The Iranian revolution happened in 1979. I was thinking “revolutionary fervor” (or maybe shortages of birth control) caused it. However, while close, the years don’t line up.
J.
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### Author:  [@Folacin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Folacin)
#### Post date: [March 11, 2015, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-up-with-irans-population-pyramid/714762/4 "2015-03-11T17:21:51Z")
A bit of a boom (through the 20-30 year-olds, it doesn’t like that much different than the Iraq graph), but it looks to me like the more interesting question is why the ‘baby bust’ in the following years.
One standard answer for reduced birth rate is increased female education. I wouldn’t see the Revolution increasing that (more likely the opposite), so that isn’t the likely answer. Did Iran lose enough population in the Iran/Iraq war to materially affect their population growth?
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### Author:  [@md2000](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/md2000)
#### Post date: [March 11, 2015, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-up-with-irans-population-pyramid/714762/5 "2015-03-11T17:40:47Z")
> [@Folacin](#):
>
> A bit of a boom (through the 20-30 year-olds, it doesn’t like that much different than the Iraq graph), but it looks to me like the more interesting question is why the ‘baby bust’ in the following years.
>
> One standard answer for reduced birth rate is increased female education. I wouldn’t see the Revolution increasing that (more likely the opposite), so that isn’t the likely answer. Did Iran lose enough population in the Iran/Iraq war to materially affect their population growth?
That was my first thought, but I don’t see a significant drop in male vs female for combatant-age males. The war was in the 80’s, so you’d expect a dip in the male population born around 1960 to 1970 (20 or 30 during the war). I don’t see it.
Instead, starting 20 to 25 years ago, it seems people stopped having many kids. 25 years ago was 1990, about the end of the Iran-Iraq war but the start of the Kuwait invasion. At that point Iran was a pariah state, the military situation in its neighbourhood was volatile, they were being sanctioned. Presumably the economy was the shits and nobody felt they could afford a big family? Yet the Iraqis during the same time, through the Saddam sanctions, shows no such effect. I assume this was because thanks to the shah, Iran had a more educated, urban and modernized population, more likely to control their family size?
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### Author:  [@Ethilrist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ethilrist)
#### Post date: [March 11, 2015, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-up-with-irans-population-pyramid/714762/6 "2015-03-11T18:10:15Z")
Would the shift from rulership by the Shah to the Ayatollah have made a difference? Less exposure to western culture, more staying at home at night with nothing to do but make babies?
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### Author:  [@Machine\_Elf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Machine_Elf)
#### Post date: [March 11, 2015, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-up-with-irans-population-pyramid/714762/7 "2015-03-11T18:16:59Z")
See [youth bulge.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_pyramid#Youth_bulge) A [Google search on those terms gives lots of hits;](https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=iran+youth+bulge) your answer is likely among them.
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### Author:  [@md2000](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/md2000)
#### Post date: [March 11, 2015, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-up-with-irans-population-pyramid/714762/8 "2015-03-11T18:26:08Z")
> [@Ethilrist](#):
>
> Would the shift from rulership by the Shah to the Ayatollah have made a difference? Less exposure to western culture, more staying at home at night with nothing to do but make babies?
But it’s just the opposite - about 20-25 years ago Iranians stopped having as many children, by a significant amount. It’s either the economic climate of the early 90’s (just after the war, sanctions) or it’s something about the 20 to 30 year olds of the time.
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### Author:  [@md2000](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/md2000)
#### Post date: [March 11, 2015, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-up-with-irans-population-pyramid/714762/9 "2015-03-11T18:29:58Z")
If you want to see the multiple effects of history, see this:
[ ](https://www.indexmundi.com/graphs/population-pyramids/russia-population-pyramid-2014.gif)
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### Author:  [@Hermitian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hermitian)
#### Post date: [March 11, 2015, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-up-with-irans-population-pyramid/714762/10 "2015-03-11T18:33:09Z")
> [@md2000](#):
>
> But it’s just the opposite - about 20-25 years ago Iranians stopped having as many children, by a significant amount. It’s either the economic climate of the early 90’s (just after the war, sanctions) or it’s something about the 20 to 30 year olds of the time.
Yes, my original question was not well worded. There was a baby boom going on and then a sharp drop in births 15-20 years ago (1995-2000).
I wasn’t aware of any major Iranian events at the time, but I don’t know much about Iran.
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### Author:  [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)
#### Post date: [March 11, 2015, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-up-with-irans-population-pyramid/714762/11 "2015-03-11T18:59:12Z")
> [@md2000](#):
>
> That was my first thought, but I don’t see a significant drop in male vs female for combatant-age males. The war was in the 80’s, so you’d expect a dip in the male population born around 1960 to 1970 (20 or 30 during the war). I don’t see it.
>
> Instead, starting 20 to 25 years ago, it seems people stopped having many kids. 25 years ago was 1990, about the end of the Iran-Iraq war but the start of the Kuwait invasion. At that point Iran was a pariah state, the military situation in its neighbourhood was volatile, they were being sanctioned. Presumably the economy was the shits and nobody felt they could afford a big family? Yet the Iraqis during the same time, through the Saddam sanctions, shows no such effect. I assume this was because thanks to the shah, Iran had a more educated, urban and modernized population, more likely to control their family size?
The answer is fairly easy. The men who were killed or maimed in the war did not reproduce at the rates that their predecessors did. The shortage of men in this generation means that, i) women who of this generation also reproduced at a lower rate and ii) the shortage of men would hit the workplace as the older ones retired and were not replaced in numbers, leading to the country needing to turn to women of necessity, leading to them having less children.
By the way, the increase in education was mostly under Khomeni.
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### Author:  [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)
#### Post date: [March 11, 2015, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-up-with-irans-population-pyramid/714762/12 "2015-03-11T19:03:39Z")
[This Wiki](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_planning_in_Iran) says that “while Iran’s population grew at a rate of more than 3% per year between 1956 and 1986, the growth rate began to decline in the late 1980s and early 1990s _after the government initiated a major population control program_.” (Italics mine.)
Under “Rafsanjani era and decreasing natality,” it goes on to say that:
> [@](#):
>
> Following the war with Iraq, the death of Ayatollah Khomeini, and taking office of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in 1989, a sharp change was made in the Iran’s population policy. Realizing “the costs of this burgeoning population were going to far exceed its capacity to provide adequate food, education, housing and employment”, Iran’s government “declared that Islam favored families with only two children”, as one historian put it. Iran’s Health Ministry launched a nationwide campaign and introduced contraceptives - pills, condoms, IUDs, implants, tubal ligations, and vasectomies.
>
> In 1993, Parliament passed further legislation withdrawing food coupons, paid maternity leave, and social welfare subsidies after the third child. Birth control classes were required before a couple could get married. Dozens of mobile teams were sent to remote parts of the country to offer free vasectomies and tubal ligations.
There’s a .pdf on the matter [here](http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/completingfertility/2RevisedABBASIpaper.PDF), haven’t read it yet.
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### Author:  [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)
#### Post date: [March 11, 2015, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-up-with-irans-population-pyramid/714762/13 "2015-03-11T19:12:37Z")
Yeah so the paper says:
> [@](#):
>
> In an earlier paper, Ladier-Fouladi (1997), using birth registration data reached the same conclusion that the decline of fertility began in 1984. The decline was slow until the government population policy was reversed and a new family planning program was officially inaugurated in December 1989. Total fertility rate fell sharply after 1989, dropping from 5.5 in 1988 to below 2.8 in 1996, more than a 50 per cent decline in 6 years.
>
> […]
>
> The family planning program implemented in December 1989 has made an important contribution to the continued fertility transition. By mobilizing various government organizations and the mass communication network, the program succeeded in diffusing ideas throughout the entire country about the value of small families and about methods of family limitation. The contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) has risen from 37 per cent in 1976 to around 72 percent in the year 2000.
Haven’t read the whole thing - a bit busy - but the short answer to the OP’s question seems to be, quite simply, that it’s a result of the Iranian government’s 1989 family planning program.
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### Author:  [@Hermitian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hermitian)
#### Post date: [March 11, 2015, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-up-with-irans-population-pyramid/714762/14 "2015-03-11T19:37:07Z")
Thanks guys. Interesting stuff.
Sounds like they know how to run a successful contraceptive program.
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### Author:  [@control-z](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/control-z)
#### Post date: [March 11, 2015, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-up-with-irans-population-pyramid/714762/15 "2015-03-11T20:04:00Z")
Iraq invaded Iran in 1980 and they had an 8-year war that ended in 1988. “Half a million Iraqi and Iranian soldiers, with an equivalent number of civilians, are believed to have died, with many more injured” That’s over 1 million dead from Iran alone. Now take the biggest part of the graph, 25-29, let’s round it off to 27. Subtract 27 from 2015 and you get 1988, which is when the Iraq/Iran war ended. So it seems like they had a baby boom after the war.
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### Author:  [@control-z](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/control-z)
#### Post date: [March 11, 2015, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-up-with-irans-population-pyramid/714762/16 "2015-03-11T20:20:32Z")
Wikipedia source for my quote: [Iran–Iraq War - Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War)
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### Author:  [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)
#### Post date: [March 12, 2015, 8:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-up-with-irans-population-pyramid/714762/17 "2015-03-12T08:48:22Z")
> [@Folacin](#):
>
> One standard answer for reduced birth rate is increased female education. I wouldn’t see the Revolution increasing that (more likely the opposite)
[Your assumption is wrong](http://api.viglink.com/api/click?format=go&jsonp=vglnk_14261500035026&key=ce270d38103a630c3181db372a25a052&libId=i7545ast010004p6000DAo8oy5bay&loc=http%3A%2F%2Fboards.straightdope.com%2Fsdmb%2Fnewreply.php%3Fdo%3Dnewreply%26p%3D18198469&v=1&out=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.un.org%2Fesa%2Fpopulation%2Fpublications%2Fcompletingfertility%2F2RevisedABBASIpaper.PDF&ref=http%3A%2F%2Fboards.straightdope.com%2Fsdmb%2Fshowthread.php%3Ft%3D751430&title=Straight%20Dope%20Message%20Board%20-%20Reply%20to%20Topic&txt=here):
> [@](#):
>
> The level of education for [Iranian] women at reproductive ages has increased substantially over _the last four decades_.
It seems the revolution did nothing to halt that trend. What’s more, there are now more women studying at Iranian universities than there are men:
> [@](#):
>
> In 1998, around 52 per cent of university candidates who were admitted to government universities were girls. The figure increased to 57 per cent in 1999, to around 60 per cent in 2000, and then to around 62 percent in 2001.
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### Author:  [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)
#### Post date: [March 12, 2015, 8:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-up-with-irans-population-pyramid/714762/18 "2015-03-12T08:55:56Z")
> [@Folacin](#):
>
> One standard answer for reduced birth rate is increased female education. I wouldn’t see the Revolution increasing that (more likely the opposite)
You’d be wrong.
[
> [@](#):
>
> As of 2006, women account for well over half of the university students in Iran and 70% of Iran’s science and engineering students
]([Women's rights in Iran - Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_rights_in_Iran#Education)) and that’s just the culmination of a trend started with the Revolution. Iranian women are not as oppressed as you might think.
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### Author:  [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)
#### Post date: [March 12, 2015, 9:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-up-with-irans-population-pyramid/714762/19 "2015-03-12T09:25:06Z")
_high-fives **MrDibble** _
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### Author:  [@md2000](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/md2000)
#### Post date: [March 12, 2015, 12:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whats-up-with-irans-population-pyramid/714762/20 "2015-03-12T12:23:49Z")
> [@AK84](#):
>
> The answer is fairly easy. The men who were killed or maimed in the war did not reproduce at the rates that their predecessors did. The shortage of men in this generation means that, i) women who of this generation also reproduced at a lower rate and ii) the shortage of men would hit the workplace as the older ones retired and were not replaced in numbers, leading to the country needing to turn to women of necessity, leading to them having less children.
>
> By the way, the increase in education was mostly under Khomeni.
But perusing the pyramid, there is no huge difference between male and female population in the 50-year-old (give or take) range. Certainly not enough of a difference to account for the resulting population drop.
Interesting that the relatively conservative government was serious about birth control.
As for educational levels - the shah was determined to make Iran a first world country based on its oil revenue, and was well on his way to achieving that goal. That one reason the fundamentalist church there hated him, modern educated people are less inclined to listen to Mullahs - but of course those same people don’t like secret police either.
The society was well on the way to urbanization and industrialization, a trend difficult for the Mullahs to reverse even if they wanted to. That sort of society sees children as a cost not a benefit.
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