# When and how will the US fall? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [September 21, 2013, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-and-how-will-the-us-fall/669366 "2013-09-21T04:44:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 17\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Cat\_Whisperer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cat_whisperer/32/4839_2.png) [@Cat\_Whisperer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cat_Whisperer)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2013, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-and-how-will-the-us-fall/669366/41 "2013-09-22T21:48:30Z")
> [@Rodgers01](#): > > \ > In any event, I don’t see anything dramatic happening to disrupt the United States. Just a gradual redistribution of power as US strength wanes relative to every other country’s, as others have suggested. That brings up an interesting question; is national global power a zero sum game, in that there is only so much power to go around? The rest of the world power goes up, so the US power must go down? ---
**Author:** ![Imasquare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Imasquare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Imasquare)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2013, 7:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-and-how-will-the-us-fall/669366/42 "2013-09-24T07:30:37Z")
> [@zoid](#): > > This. The US won’t fall, the balance of power around the globe will simply redistribute to sane levels where the US doesn’t punch so far above it’s weight. Really the dramatic consolidation of power in the one nation of the US can’t last forever and speaking as a US citizen I’m not sure it should. > > If other countries had enough power to maintain peaceful and just stabilization in their geographic regions the US could start to more fully address the issues we have at home. Instead of maintaining a military that can exert significant control in the world we could move toward a more self-defensive roll and use the vast surplus of revenue to maintain a leadership in technological advancement and create enough jobs to vastly improve the quality of life of those currently living in poverty. > > But then that’s probably way too liberal a thought and I’m secretly trying to destroy the country :rolleyes: The problem is that China’s and India’s populations are so huge that they will both wield the same sort of power the US does now. ---
**Author:** ![Grrr](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grrr/32/146_2.png) [@Grrr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grrr)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2013, 7:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-and-how-will-the-us-fall/669366/43 "2013-09-24T07:56:30Z")
> [@Spoons](#): > > I’m unsure if the US dollar is as important as you claim it is. Sure, oil trades in it; but on world money markets, solid western currencies include the GBP, the Swiss Franc, the Euro, the Japanese Yen, the Canadian Dollar, and the Australian Dollar. The US dollar is among the above, of course, but all of the above currencies trade freely on world markets, are held in reserve by various governments, and all float against each other. > > I’m no economist, but it seems to me that there are enough hard western currencies, as listed above, that the failure of the US dollar (which is unlikely to happen) won’t affect much. Other currencies (e.g. GBP, CAD, AUD, CHF, JPY, etc), will still keep the world’s economy going. Well, this isn’t the guy I wanted to quote, be he pretty much echos the same thing a local economist who used to be on the radio here locally.: > [@](#): > > In spite of all the gloomy predictions, we should consider the fact that the United States still weighs in with roughly one quarter of the global economy. Furthermore, the U.S. economy is robust and innovative. It responds flexibly to external shock and it operates within the world’s largest single market - even if Europe has more to offer when measured by economic output. But the single European market doesn’t function as well as that in the U.S. - not by a long shot. > > Posted By [Worldmeets.US](http://Worldmeets.US) > > And furthermore: What currency in the foreseeable future could replace the dollar as the reserve currency? The euro, the yen, and the yuan, at least, don’t come into consideration, nor does any other currency. > > The euro has indeed become the world’s second global currency, but as long as this “artificial” currency lacks the political underpinnings of a functioning European fiscal union, the euro will never be able to replace the dollar. > > The yen and yuan are traditional national currencies of export-dependent countries with high domestic savings rates that cover the financial needs of the state. This automatically prevents other states from “stashing” adequate amounts of these currencies in reserve. That means from the outset, from a global perspective, these currencies cannot have liquidity that approaches that of the dollar. And this applies equally to every other currency on the globe. > > For me, all of this leads to one conclusion: The dollar is - as our chancellor would say - without alternative. It will continue to be global reserve currency number one for some time to come. > [http://worldmeets.us/](http://worldmeets.us/) [http://www.worldmeets.us/handelsblatt000007.shtml#.UkFDBlJgjKA#ixzz2fnJxdNsP](http://www.worldmeets.us/handelsblatt000007.shtml#.UkFDBlJgjKA#ixzz2fnJxdNsP) ---
**Author:** ![Flyer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/flyer/32/7298_2.png) [@Flyer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Flyer)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2013, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-and-how-will-the-us-fall/669366/44 "2013-09-24T16:33:47Z")
> [@Cat\_Whisperer](#): > > Not to increase my reputation for being a USA-hater, but it’s kind of looking that way from the outside already. Stem-cell research, anyone? If you’re referring to embryonic stem cells, most of that is anti-Bush propaganda. Research on ADULT stem cells is proceeding apace, and we’ve found that they are much better than embryonic cells for many purposes. > [@](#): > > The use of adult stem cells and tissues derived from the patient’s own adult stem cells would mean that the cells are less likely to be rejected by the immune system. [http://stemcells.nih.gov/info/basics/pages/basics5.aspx](http://stemcells.nih.gov/info/basics/pages/basics5.aspx) > [@C\_K\_Dexter\_Haven](#): > > Another civil war. It’s happening now, with the divide between urban states and rural states, and with the refusal of Republicans and Democrats to compromise, and with the Republicans spending all their time trying to defeat Obamacare. At the same time, I see the far right spending their efforts on abolishing freedoms in the name of “freedom from government.” At the next major economic crisis, I envision a take-over of the US Government by the Tea Party fascists and the collapse of democracy. So–you’ve been reading John Titor, I take it? ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2013, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-and-how-will-the-us-fall/669366/45 "2013-09-24T17:46:29Z")
> [@Justin\_Bailey](#): > > Really? You really envision this? What you’re saying will probably happen in the next few years is _ **INSANE** _. No it’s not. Have you heard the kind of rhetoric the right indulges in? They see those who oppose them as would-be socialist dictators, they see OBAMA that way, and he’s basically a Reagan Republican, though admittedly, he does have a strain of tyranny in him. ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2013, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-and-how-will-the-us-fall/669366/46 "2013-09-24T17:51:53Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > No it’s not. Have you heard the kind of rhetoric the right indulges in? They see those who oppose them as would-be socialist dictators, they see OBAMA that way, and he’s basically a Reagan Republican, though admittedly, he does have a strain of tyranny in him. Civil War involves armed conflict against your family, your friends, and your neighbors. This will NEVER happen in the US because a few people really really dislike the President’s skin color. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2013, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-and-how-will-the-us-fall/669366/47 "2013-09-24T18:19:52Z")
> [@Imasquare](#): > > The problem is that China’s and India’s populations are so huge that they will both wield the same sort of power the US does now. How is that? I’d think that huge populations are more of a liability above a certain point than an asset. You have more mouths to feed and more people to be angry at you if you don’t. The US is in a rather unique position of having a huge population (#3, last time I checked) AND huge economic power. What I see happening to the US is a gradual decline of relevance on the world stage, to being a Great Power instead of the lone Superpower. I don’t see a political or economic collapse causing the breakup of the Union with our current system of government; the US federal system has a lot of in-built flex that tends to mitigate such things. Keep in mind that most of the current nations of the world have been nations/peoples in one way or anther for the past thousand years, more or less. Think about England having been England since the time of Alfred the Great. There’s no reason to believe that America and Americans won’t endure similarly, even if governments rise and fall. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_fun_ball/32/17664_2.png) [@Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Fun_Ball)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2013, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-and-how-will-the-us-fall/669366/48 "2013-09-24T18:21:19Z")
> [@Oakminster](#): > > Liberalism. The downfall has already started. Conservatism. Between weakening the government using starve the beast tactics and arming a bunch of racist fundamentalist militias, US society will fall in a flurry of violence. The downfall has already started. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2013, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-and-how-will-the-us-fall/669366/49 "2013-09-24T18:42:50Z")
> [@Cat\_Whisperer](#): > > I think economic collapse will be the killing blow. ETA: I was agreeing with you, with a weird way of saying it. 🙂 > > I think a civil war is likely, too, but I see it more as a divide between the rich 1% and the poor 99% (more along the lines of the French Revolution - off with the heads of the rich folk!) as the middle class is extinguished and the rich just get richer and richer off the backs of everyone else. > > Not to increase my reputation for being a USA-hater, but it’s kind of looking that way from the outside already. Stem-cell research, anyone? When is Canada going to fall? I mean, if Quebec seceded, would that mean that Canada didn’t exist any more? Or if Canada becomes a republic, would that mean that Canada stopped existing? Or if Canada had an economic downturn and elected a series of shitty governments and its per-capita income dropped below that of the US, would that mean the end of Canada? The existence of the United States of America does not depend on being the world’s largest economy, or not electing shitty presidents. It does not depend on whether Puerto Rico becomes an independent country, or a US state, or maintains the status quo. The existence of the United States does not depend on being a world leader in science and technology. If we stop funding stem cell research that won’t destroy the United States. If we elect a Republican president that won’t destroy the United States either. A country takes a lot of destruction. A country can change governments, be conquered and occupied, go bankrupt, have a civil war, change religions, change their constitution, join supra-national organizations, absorb foreign ethnic groups, and still exist. And even if empires split apart, the people living there can be better off after the split. British people are better off now then they were back when they ruled a quarter of the globe. The loss of empire was a net economic gain. And if Scotland becomes independent, does that mean decline and disaster for England? Was it a disaster when Ireland became independent? ---
**Author:** ![Twoflower](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/twoflower/32/22_2.png) [@Twoflower](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Twoflower)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2013, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-and-how-will-the-us-fall/669366/50 "2013-09-24T19:34:23Z")
I don’t see another Civil War. The next time the South tries to secede, the rest of us will be happy to let them go. The two (or more) smaller countries will gradually fade in world importance over the ensuing decades. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2013, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-and-how-will-the-us-fall/669366/51 "2013-09-24T19:41:51Z")
> [@Lemur866](#): > > When is Canada going to fall? I mean, if Quebec seceded, would that mean that Canada didn’t exist any more? Or if Canada becomes a republic, would that mean that Canada stopped existing? Or if Canada had an economic downturn and elected a series of shitty governments and its per-capita income dropped below that of the US, would that mean the end of Canada? Most recent World Factbook figures show Canada as having $43,400 GDP per capita. The United States has $50,700. I don’t know that Canadian per capita income has ever been higher than the United States. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2013, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-and-how-will-the-us-fall/669366/52 "2013-09-24T19:53:59Z")
Well that’s my point. Canada continues to exist, even though there are nearby countries with larger populations, larger economies, and higher GDP per capita. So explain to me how if China improves its per capita GDP by a factor of 8 that means the US won’t exist any more. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2013, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-and-how-will-the-us-fall/669366/53 "2013-09-25T01:33:24Z")
> [@Twoflower](#): > > I don’t see another Civil War. The next time the South tries to secede, the rest of us will be happy to let them go. The two (or more) smaller countries will gradually fade in world importance over the ensuing decades. I certainly wouldn’t “let them go”. I’d probably be with the GAR 21st Armoured Division Thaddeus Stevens, flushing out the traitors in Greenville to keep the greatness and power of our Republic. ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2013, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-and-how-will-the-us-fall/669366/54 "2013-09-25T14:32:58Z")
It’ll be an economic collapse. The Federal government has wracked up trillions of dollars in debt, and can’t even be bothered to pay lip service to the idea of paying it off. It’s inevitable that at some point, the house of cards will collapse. Once this happens, states will begin to bail out of the USA in an effort to rehabilitate their own economies. The attitude will basically be, “last guy at the table gets stuck with the check.” Most likely, this will be either California or New York, who will try the hardest to preserve the status quo because they’re the two biggest dogs in the yard. As the last vestige of the USA, CA/NY will end up crushed under a truely hopeless mountain of debt, to the point where even basic civil services will become problematic (think Haiti). ---
**Author:** ![elninost0rm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/ed655f/32.png) [@elninost0rm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elninost0rm)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2013, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-and-how-will-the-us-fall/669366/55 "2013-09-25T15:19:16Z")
> [@Diceman](#): > > It’ll be an economic collapse. The Federal government has \*\*wracked up trillions of dollars in debt, and can’t even be bothered to pay lip service to the idea of paying it off. \*\* **It’s inevitable that at some point, the house of cards will collapse.** > > Once this happens, states will begin to bail out of the USA in an effort to rehabilitate their own economies. The attitude will basically be, “last guy at the table gets stuck with the check.” Most likely, this will be either California or New York, who will try the hardest to preserve the status quo because they’re the two biggest dogs in the yard. **As the last vestige of the USA, CA/NY will end up crushed under a truely hopeless mountain of debt** , to the point where even basic civil services will become problematic (think Haiti). People love throwing around cute phrases like this, but they typically never bother explaining their rationale with cites and explanations. ---
**Author:** ![Cat\_Whisperer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cat_whisperer/32/4839_2.png) [@Cat\_Whisperer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cat_Whisperer)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2013, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-and-how-will-the-us-fall/669366/56 "2013-09-25T16:17:44Z")
> [@Flyer](#): > > If you’re referring to embryonic stem cells, most of that is anti-Bush propaganda. Research on ADULT stem cells is proceeding apace, and we’ve found that they are much better than embryonic cells for many purposes. > > [http://stemcells.nih.gov/info/basics/pages/basics5.aspx<snip>](http://stemcells.nih.gov/info/basics/pages/basics5.aspx<snip>); That’s good to hear - thanks for the information. > [@Twoflower](#): > > I don’t see another Civil War. The next time the South tries to secede, the rest of us will be happy to let them go. The two (or more) smaller countries will gradually fade in world importance over the ensuing decades. The civil war I’m talking about won’t be geographical - it will be economical. > [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > Most recent World Factbook figures show Canada as having $43,400 GDP per capita. > > The United States has $50,700. I don’t know that Canadian per capita income has ever been higher than the United States. But the more important figure (in my opinion) is the debt per capita - $52,170 in the USA vs. $29,625 in Canada ([from here](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt)). That site also puts the US debt at 106% of GDP and Canada’s at 64% of GDP. > [@Diceman](#): > > It’ll be an economic collapse. The Federal government has wracked up trillions of dollars in debt, and can’t even be bothered to pay lip service to the idea of paying it off. It’s inevitable that at some point, the house of cards will collapse. > > Once this happens, states will begin to bail out of the USA in an effort to rehabilitate their own economies. The attitude will basically be, “last guy at the table gets stuck with the check.” Most likely, this will be either California or New York, who will try the hardest to preserve the status quo because they’re the two biggest dogs in the yard. As the last vestige of the USA, CA/NY will end up crushed under a truely hopeless mountain of debt, to the point where even basic civil services will become problematic (think Haiti). That’s what I’m saying, too. One thing that does come to mind, though, is the old idea that a bank can’t afford to have one huge customer who owes them a huge debt; that puts the customer in a position of having some power over the bank, since if the customer declares bankruptcy, the bank goes under. The USA is indeed a huge economy, and a huge player on the worldwide stage - can the rest of the world afford to let the USA declare bankruptcy, or would we be looking at a global economic re-structuring? ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2013, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-and-how-will-the-us-fall/669366/57 "2013-09-25T17:07:13Z")
The US has a lot of debt. Not a lot of debt compared to some other countries, but still, a lot of debt. Our debt to GDP ratio is a lot lower than most first world countries. But the nice thing about the US debt is that the US debt is denominated in US dollars. It would be one thing if we borrowed Euros or Yen and had to pay everyone back in Euros or Yen. Except we can pay people back in US dollars. And who makes US dollars? That’s right, the US government. We can whip up as many dollars as we like to pay off our debts. Of course the problem with this is that we’ll have massive inflation, the value of the US dollar will plummet, and it will be hard to get new people to buy US bonds if there is rampant inflation without agreeing to pay outrageous interest rates. The reason Greece is in such trouble is that it owes debts in Euros, but it can’t devalue the Euro, only Germany+France could do that. The thing is, sovereign governments can just pass a law telling their creditors to go screw. And there’s nothing the creditors can do about it. And another part of the “trillions” in debt is that this is just projected future payouts for things like social security. All we have to do is cut future social security payouts, and our “debt” doesn’t exist. Social security is not a savings plan. Instead current retirees are paid by current workers. It can’t work any other way because today’s retirees have to be supported by today’s economic output. I mean, compare the US economic situation to Greece’s. Is Greece about to revert to Haiti-style squalor, or Mad Max style barbarism? No, somehow Greece is going to muddle through. I don’t see how people can expect the United States to collapse due to debt when countries with much worse problems have never collapsed due to debt. Greece could just repudiate its debt tomorrow. The reason they don’t want to do that is that they’d be kicked out of the EU. They don’t want that, they want the EU to bail them out. So why is America so much more fragile than any other country in the world? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-and-how-will-the-us-fall/669366.md?page=2)