# When did American businesses face the least uncertainty? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 8, 2010, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-american-businesses-face-the-least-uncertainty/553047 "2010-09-08T13:43:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![emacknight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/3ec8ea/32.png) [@emacknight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/emacknight)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-american-businesses-face-the-least-uncertainty/553047/1 "2010-09-08T13:43:59Z")
As far back as when Obama won the party nomination, and certainly since he won the general election, there has been a near constant drone of “uncertainty.” Obama causes uncertainty. Businesses can’t grow, or invest, or hire new employees, because Obama and the liberal Democrats have caused uncertainty. Not much point debating this any more, it’s been well established in my thread about business: > [@Business's exist to make a profit, not to create jobs.](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/businesss-exist-to-make-a-profit-not-to-create-jobs/552789/28): > > You think uncertainty isn’t an issue? Tell you what: You hire someone today, and a year or two from now I’ll tell you if you’re going to have to pay an extra $3,000 per year for his health insurance. You go ahead and take out that $500,000 loan to build your machine shop, and later on I’ll decide what interest rate you’re going to have to pay. Hire a full staff, and later on I’ll tell you if I’m going to pass a law that allows them to unionize, make any demands of you they want, and if you don’t agree you’ll be shut down until a government arbitrator decides how much you can afford. > [@Business's exist to make a profit, not to create jobs.](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/businesss-exist-to-make-a-profit-not-to-create-jobs/552789/7): > > > [@foolsguinea](#): > > > > What I love is the bizarre claim that businesses aren’t hiring because of “uncertainty,” & this somehow means we should block all the majority party’s attempts at getting out of a fiscal hole & fixing things like Medicaid in the hope that somehow the minority party will come to power & then…not fix those things? > > No, it means that companies are hesitant to hire because they don’t know how all the new regulations will affect their employee costs. > [@Business's exist to make a profit, not to create jobs.](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/businesss-exist-to-make-a-profit-not-to-create-jobs/552789/11): > > Small businesses aren’t hiring because they are uncertain of the immediate future, or what directly Obama et al are taking us. They don’t know if their taxes are suddenly going to go up, they don’t know exactly what the costs of the new health care reforms are going to be on them in the short, medium or long terms, they don’t know what the economy is going to do (double dip inflation? more recession? a modest increase? a boom?)…and so, in their uncertainty they are reluctant to expand less they get caught in one of the unknowns and thus loss a lot of money AND have to lay off all the people they have hired plus maybe some of the ones who are currently working. Why this is hard to grasp is beyond me…it seems so simply and obvious that I truly don’t understand where the disconnect is. > > \ > > There is a lot of uncertainty about what’s going to happen in the next year or so, and businesses, big or small don’t know what will happen or what effects the situation will have on their bottom lines. Do you want more? This sentiment is all through [**Sam’s** rant about Obama’s anti-business posturing.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=576238) And comes up when ever the economy or stimulus is mentioned. So I ask, in retrospect, when was the least uncertain time for businesses small and large? Pick any point over the past 224 years. As a teachable moment for fledgling Democrats, what is it that Republicans do differently? What makes businesses feel so warm and cozy that they rush out the expand? Now that we’ve established Obama as the one of the most anti-business president ever, who was the most pro-business? ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-american-businesses-face-the-least-uncertainty/553047/2 "2010-09-08T13:56:13Z")
I would say the past 30 years, when businesses were assured by the government that they would not have to compete, and if they still failed, the government would bail them out. Obama is considered ‘anti-business’ because he wants to end the free ride (although he doesn’t seem to have done much about it). ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-american-businesses-face-the-least-uncertainty/553047/3 "2010-09-08T14:41:33Z")
If you are measuring “uncertainty” by businesses willingness or ability to expand, then I would suggest that real GDP growth would be a good metric. Least uncertainty probably would have been the mid to late 90s before the dot-com crash. Businesses were so confident that they were going to expand that peopel were willing to throw millions at businesses with no clear idea as to what, if anything, they produced. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-american-businesses-face-the-least-uncertainty/553047/4 "2010-09-08T14:55:45Z")
> [@emacknight](#): > > Now that we’ve established Obama as the one of the most anti-business president ever, who was the most pro-business? “We” haven’t done anything of the sort. ---
**Author:** ![emacknight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/3ec8ea/32.png) [@emacknight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/emacknight)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-american-businesses-face-the-least-uncertainty/553047/5 "2010-09-08T15:10:00Z")
> [@silenus](#): > > > [@emacknight](#): > > > > Now that we’ve established Obama as the one of the most anti-business president ever, who was the most pro-business? > > “We” haven’t done anything of the sort. Sure we have. Look at the economy, look at the unemployment numbers, look at the former Obama supporters and business leaders all jumping ship. It’s no coincidence the Dow peaked at the end of Bush’s reign, plunged when Obama won the nomination, and jumped off a cliff when he won the general election. Obama’s anti-business posturing has created one of the most uncertain times for businesses. So now I’d like to know when the least uncertain times were, and try to understand what Republicans do to create them. What is it about their posture that makes small business expand and hire people? ---
**Author:** ![DrCube](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a3d4f5/32.png) [@DrCube](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrCube)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-american-businesses-face-the-least-uncertainty/553047/6 "2010-09-08T17:23:38Z")
> **[The numbers don't lie: Democrats are better for the economy than Republicans.](https://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/readme/2008/09/politicians_lie_numbers_dont.html)** > > If you're wondering why a formerly honorable man like John McCain would build his presidential campaign around issues that are simultaneously beside-th ... There is a statistical correlation between Democrat presidencies and strong economies. You can argue that there is a lag time between policies and their effects such that concluding Democrats _cause_ better economies doesn’t necessarily follow. But you can’t claim that the economy is better under Republican presidents because it demonstrably isn’t. This one administration does not make a pattern, however I’m pretty sure this recession started a few years before Obama stepped foot into the Oval Office. ---
**Author:** ![campp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c5a1d2/32.png) [@campp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/campp)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-american-businesses-face-the-least-uncertainty/553047/7 "2010-09-08T17:36:41Z")
[quote=“emacknight, post:5, topic:553047”] > [@silenus](#): > > It’s no coincidence the Dow peaked at the end of Bush’s reign, plunged when Obama won the nomination, and jumped off a cliff when he won the general election. The Dow is _up 30%_ since he was sworn in. :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![godix](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/278dde/32.png) [@godix](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/godix)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-american-businesses-face-the-least-uncertainty/553047/8 "2010-09-08T18:19:41Z")
My offhand thought is that things were pretty pro-business in the era of the robber barons. ---
**Author:** ![emacknight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/3ec8ea/32.png) [@emacknight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/emacknight)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-american-businesses-face-the-least-uncertainty/553047/9 "2010-09-08T18:32:13Z")
> [@campp](#): > > The Dow is _up 30%_ since he was sworn in. :dubious: Dead cat bounce. And it’s little comfort to all the people that lost all of their retirement savings. ---
**Author:** ![Algher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Algher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Algher)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-american-businesses-face-the-least-uncertainty/553047/10 "2010-09-08T18:37:54Z")
> [@DrCube](#): > > [The numbers don't lie: Democrats are better for the economy than Republicans.](http://www.slate.com/id/2199810/) > > There is a statistical correlation between Democrat presidencies and strong economies. You can argue that there is a lag time between policies and their effects such that concluding Democrats _cause_ better economies doesn’t necessarily follow. But you can’t claim that the economy is better under Republican presidents because it demonstrably isn’t. This one administration does not make a pattern, however I’m pretty sure this recession started a few years before Obama stepped foot into the Oval Office. I wish these guys would add in the data for control of the House and Senate as well. ONLY tracking the President misses way too much of the picture. ---
**Author:** ![qpw3141](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/6bbea6/32.png) [@qpw3141](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/qpw3141)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-american-businesses-face-the-least-uncertainty/553047/11 "2010-09-08T18:41:44Z")
> [@emacknight](#): > > > [@campp](#): > > > > The Dow is _up 30%_ since he was sworn in. :dubious: > > Dead cat bounce. > > And it’s little comfort to all the people that lost all of their retirement savings. Let’s just get this straight. The stock market continued to go down until Bush left office. Since then, during Obama’s term, it’s picked up 30%. Is that it? BTW, dead cats don’t bounce. :eek: ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-american-businesses-face-the-least-uncertainty/553047/12 "2010-09-08T19:23:04Z")
I’d say that the least uncertainty was in 1929, or so. Everyone was absolutely convinced that growth would continue indefinitely. Of course, that certainty was _wrong_, but that’s not what this thread is asking. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-american-businesses-face-the-least-uncertainty/553047/13 "2010-09-08T19:28:23Z")
> [@emacknight](#): > > > [@campp](#): > > > > The Dow is _up 30%_ since he was sworn in. :dubious: > > Dead cat bounce. > > And it’s little comfort to all the people that lost all of their retirement savings. That’s not just moving the goalpost, it’s strapping a booster rocket to it. ---
**Author:** ![emacknight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/3ec8ea/32.png) [@emacknight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/emacknight)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-american-businesses-face-the-least-uncertainty/553047/14 "2010-09-08T19:46:50Z")
Okay, so far we have one vote for the Dot Com era 1995–2000, and the roaring twenties (including the robber baron era). I was going to vote for Friday, October 16th, 1987. The summer of 1973 was also pretty certain. Life is good when you don’t have to worry about liberal policies messing with your future profits. Although the summer of 2001 was pretty sweet for the airline industry; a new Republican president with his pro-business posturing, no need to fear UHC, random taxes, or unnecessary paper work. Good times. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-american-businesses-face-the-least-uncertainty/553047/15 "2010-09-08T19:57:03Z")
> [@emacknight](#): > > > [@campp](#): > > > > The Dow is _up 30%_ since he was sworn in. :dubious: > > Dead cat bounce. > > And it’s little comfort to all the people that lost all of their retirement savings. Wait a minute. I lost my retirement savings, but then I got it back, when the stock market came back. Didn’t everybody else? ---
**Author:** ![Grey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b782af/32.png) [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-american-businesses-face-the-least-uncertainty/553047/16 "2010-09-08T20:04:28Z")
Not if you pulled everything out of the market. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-american-businesses-face-the-least-uncertainty/553047/17 "2010-09-08T20:13:41Z")
The OP is not interested in a real discussion, just political posturing. ---
**Author:** ![emacknight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/3ec8ea/32.png) [@emacknight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/emacknight)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-american-businesses-face-the-least-uncertainty/553047/18 "2010-09-08T20:25:41Z")
> [@Knorf](#): > > The OP is not interested in a real discussion, just political posturing. Are you suggesting that there weren’t times of certainty? ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-american-businesses-face-the-least-uncertainty/553047/19 "2010-09-08T20:32:11Z")
[QUOTE=emacknight] Are you suggesting that there weren’t times of certainty? [/QUOTE] I think s/he is suggesting that you are fishing in this thread. I happen to agree. What you REALLY want to do is try and disprove or dismiss the idea that uncertainty is causing some of the troubles we are going through without actually having to address the points that were raised in the quotes you put in your OP. Seeing as how your philosophy demonstrated in previous threads runs contrary to some of the statements you’ve made in THIS thread, I’d say it’s fairly clear who you are fishing for. -XT ---
**Author:** ![DrCube](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a3d4f5/32.png) [@DrCube](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrCube)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-american-businesses-face-the-least-uncertainty/553047/20 "2010-09-08T20:34:50Z")
> [@emacknight](#): > > > [@Knorf](#): > > > > The OP is not interested in a real discussion, just political posturing. > > Are you suggesting that there weren’t times of certainty? If not Knorf, _I_ will suggest that. The best you’ll get is false certainty, like Chronos said. EDIT: That doesn’t mean there weren’t times of more or less _un_certainty, however. 😛 [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-american-businesses-face-the-least-uncertainty/553047.md?page=2)