# When did they anticipate victory in WWII? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [September 11, 2014, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-they-anticipate-victory-in-wwii/698178 "2014-09-11T13:57:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Mr.Kobayashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4af34b/32.png) [@Mr.Kobayashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Kobayashi)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-they-anticipate-victory-in-wwii/698178/1 "2014-09-11T13:57:25Z")
11th December, 1941\*; Hitler declares war on the United States. Very foolish. Churchill wrote later ‘So we had won after all…Hitler’s fate was sealed.’ But on what kind of timescale were they thinking that Nazi German and Imperial Japan would be finally and crushed, when the Americans had joined? Nobody could credibly think that the United States could be defeated, shielded as she was and is by two vast oceans. As Churchill knew, victory now was only a matter of time. I know the correct answer is that the Allied powers anticipated being at war indefinitely, until the job was done, but nobody thought that the war would last, say 50 years and nobody thought it would be over in months either, so between those two figures there must have been contemporary estimates. After D-Day there was a lot of talk about ‘over by Christmas’, likewise I’ve read in Sir Max Hasting’s _All Hell Let Loose_ that after their first clashes in Africa there was a thought it could drag on to 1947 or even 1948 (!), thankfully the Eastern Front had ground the Wehrmacht to a fine red mist before then. - I know I ask a lot of questions about this period. My name is Mr. K. and I’m a World War IIaholic. I’m hoping to get treatment for my addiction, but until I do I’ve got to feed the habit. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-they-anticipate-victory-in-wwii/698178/2 "2014-09-11T14:12:15Z")
We anticipated the war in the Pacific would go on quite a bit longer - 1946 at least, maybe 1947. The Bomb changed that. ---
**Author:** ![Andy\_L](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c67d28/32.png) [@Andy\_L](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andy_L)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-they-anticipate-victory-in-wwii/698178/3 "2014-09-11T14:17:16Z")
> [@Mr.Kobayashi](#): > > 11th December, 1941\*; Hitler declares war on the United States. Very foolish. Churchill wrote later ‘So we had won after all…Hitler’s fate was sealed.’ > > But on what kind of timescale were they thinking that Nazi German and Imperial Japan would be finally and crushed, when the Americans had joined? Nobody could credibly think that the United States could be defeated, shielded as she was and is by two vast oceans. As Churchill knew, victory now was only a matter of time. > > I know the correct answer is that the Allied powers anticipated being at war indefinitely, until the job was done, but nobody thought that the war would last, say 50 years and nobody thought it would be over in months either, so between those two figures there must have been contemporary estimates. > > After D-Day there was a lot of talk about ‘over by Christmas’, likewise I’ve read in Sir Max Hasting’s _All Hell Let Loose_ that after their first clashes in Africa there was a thought it could drag on to 1947 or even 1948 (!), thankfully the Eastern Front had ground the Wehrmacht to a fine red mist before then. > > - I know I ask a lot of questions about this period. My name is Mr. K. and I’m a World War IIaholic. I’m hoping to get treatment for my addiction, but until I do I’ve got to feed the habit. By February 1945, the allied leadership had time to schedule and arrange security for a conference (the Yalta conference) explicitly for planning for the post-war reorganization of Europe, at the latest, in late 1944, the allied leadership’s list of concerns had moved from the war to the post-war. ---
**Author:** ![MG1692](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/779978/32.png) [@MG1692](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MG1692)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-they-anticipate-victory-in-wwii/698178/4 "2014-09-11T14:28:35Z")
I think in Europe they had a fairly honest timeline from mid 1943 once they began to get serious about D Day. Obviously their assumptions where based on a successful invasion. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-they-anticipate-victory-in-wwii/698178/5 "2014-09-11T14:47:18Z")
> [@Mr.Kobayashi](#): > > - I know I ask a lot of questions about this period. My name is Mr. K. and I’m a World War IIaholic. I’m hoping to get treatment for my addiction, but until I do I’ve got to feed the habit. No, it’s a great addiction. Keep feeding it. ---
**Author:** ![kopek](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kopek/32/337_2.png) [@kopek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kopek)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-they-anticipate-victory-in-wwii/698178/6 "2014-09-11T14:59:42Z")
From the beterans I’ve talked to, by 1944 they were thinking the Pacific war would go on at least until 1948 to 1950. Everyone was thinking invasion of Japan after a long naval blockade and bombing campaign. There were though Jody Calls that referenced the war lasting into the 1970s (seriously) and while people took it as a joke it wasn’t until 1945 that everyone could see the humor in it. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-they-anticipate-victory-in-wwii/698178/7 "2014-09-11T15:01:41Z")
I’ve heard that the German high command believed they’d lost the war by 1942. ---
**Author:** ![DrCube](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a3d4f5/32.png) [@DrCube](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrCube)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-they-anticipate-victory-in-wwii/698178/8 "2014-09-11T15:06:18Z")
From what I’ve gathered through reading, mid-1943 was when the average soldier or citizen (on either side really, except maybe in Japan) knew the Allies would win, even if it was going to take a few more years. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-they-anticipate-victory-in-wwii/698178/9 "2014-09-11T15:07:03Z")
When Britain was fighting alone, many expected the War to be over quickly … with Britain sueing for peace as France had done. By 1942, Britain and its two strong Powers were much more optimistic. The invasion of Normandy was originally planned for summer of 1943. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-they-anticipate-victory-in-wwii/698178/10 "2014-09-11T15:22:03Z")
> [@Andy\_L](#): > > By February 1945, the allied leadership had time to schedule and arrange security for a conference (the Yalta conference) explicitly for planning for the post-war reorganization of Europe, at the latest, in late 1944, the allied leadership’s list of concerns had moved from the war to the post-war. Yes, late 1944 thru 1945 and a Allied victory seemed likely , but since both the Axis powers kept pulling nasty tricks from up their sleeves, it was never a foregone conclusion. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Kobayashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4af34b/32.png) [@Mr.Kobayashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Kobayashi)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-they-anticipate-victory-in-wwii/698178/11 "2014-09-11T16:12:53Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > No, it’s a great addiction. Keep feeding it. You people are my enablers. > [@Johnny\_L.A](#): > > I’ve heard that the German high command believed they’d lost the war by 1942. IIRC Manstein was one of those who was woken up by Stalingrad and thought that, at best, the Soviets could be made to acknowledge a stalemate. > [@septimus](#): > > When Britain was fighting alone, many expected the War to be over quickly … with Britain sueing for peace as France had done. > > By 1942, Britain and its two strong Powers were much more optimistic. The invasion of Normandy was originally planned for summer of 1943. Even earlier, in 1942, Operation Sledgehammer was to invade Europe and build up in France before a breakout. Fortunately it was shelved, although Stalin put relentless pressure on Churchill to invade the continent before '44. Roosevelt rather rashly promised the Soviet leader a cross channel invasion in '43, something that Stalin didn’t forget in a hurry. You’re quite right that the quickest way to end a war is to lose it, to paraphrase Orwell. > [@silenus](#): > > We anticipated the war in the Pacific would go on quite a bit longer - 1946 at least, maybe 1947. The Bomb changed that. True, it’s easy to forget that even Roosevelt and Truman didn’t know whether or not the Manhattan Project would work. ‘Babies successfully delivered’ as it was put. I recall reading somewhere that anger was among some contemporary opinions on the bomb. Not anger that it had been used, but if we had it, why did the hard fighting on Okinawa need to happen. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Second\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@The\_Second\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Second_Stone)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-they-anticipate-victory-in-wwii/698178/12 "2014-09-11T16:22:16Z")
I agree with Sir Winston that it was over the day that Hitler declared war on the US. Had he not done so, and he was not obliged to as it was a defensive pact, the US people would have insisted on focusing on Japan, shifting most of the US navy to the Pacific. When the Russians halted the Germans short of Moscow and its train hubs, it was over and the Russians could then grind the Germans down, even without US help, but it would have taken years longer. The German refusal to retreat from Stalingrad took at least a year, if not years off the war. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-they-anticipate-victory-in-wwii/698178/13 "2014-09-11T16:45:38Z")
As late as July 1945, U.S. plans for a Japanese invasion estimated the Japanese had at least a half-million troops ready to fight a defensive action. The Joint Chiefs of Staff predicted (perhaps optimistically) that an invasion would take six months. In eastern Europe the Germans successfully defended much of the Eastern Front until the fall of 1944. It was actually the uprisings in Warsaw and Slovakia that diverted German efforts enough for the Soviets to punch holes in the front lines. In western Europe, the Battle of the Bulge defied Allied expectations, at least for a couple of weeks. ---
**Author:** ![doorhinge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a5b964/32.png) [@doorhinge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doorhinge)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-they-anticipate-victory-in-wwii/698178/14 "2014-09-11T17:28:04Z")
> [@Mr.Kobayashi](#): > > 11th December, 1941\*; Hitler declares war on the United States. Very foolish. Churchill wrote later ‘So we had won after all…Hitler’s fate was sealed.’ > > …I know the correct answer is that the Allied powers anticipated being at war indefinitely, until the job was done, but nobody thought that the war would last, say 50 years and nobody thought it would be over in months either, so between those two figures there must have been contemporary estimates. (post shortened) Churchill had great hopes that the manufacturing capabilities of the U.S. and the determination of the U.S. soldier and sailor would help overcome the manufacturing and determination of the Nazi war machine. Which was one of the reasons why Churchill had spent so much effort trying to draw the U.S. into the war. Hitler assumed that the existing (1940 and 1941) U.S. military would be no match for his Nazis. I would be hard pressed to determine between Hitler or Churchill, as to whom was more pleased that the U.S. had entered the war. Generally-speaking, speculation during the WWII was popular and rampant. We can do this, they can do that, they can’t possibly do this, they would never do that, etc., etc., etc… While speculation can certainly help with the planning stage, it’s the ability to adapt and overcome, plus a bit of luck, that wins battles. Win enough battles, and you should win the war. The Allied assumption that the war in Europe would be over by Christmas '44 should have been the assumption that the war in Europe SHOULD have been over by Christmas IF the Nazi had been more cooperative with the Allies goals. ---
**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-they-anticipate-victory-in-wwii/698178/15 "2014-09-11T17:53:53Z")
> [@The\_Second\_Stone](#): > > I agree with Sir Winston that it was over the day that Hitler declared war on the US. Had he not done so, and he was not obliged to as it was a defensive pact, the US people would have insisted on focusing on Japan, shifting most of the US navy to the Pacific. The US was already _de facto_ at war with Germany and had been all summer. The US Navy was escorting British convoys with orders to shot on sight any U-boats encountered. Hitler had nothing to lose by declaring war, and by taking the gloves off and directly attacking shipping along the US coast they were able to sink enormous amounts of shipping in [Operation Drumbeat](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Happy_Time): > [@](#): > > The Second Happy Time, also known among German submarine commanders as the American shooting season,[1] was the informal name for a phase in the Second Battle of the Atlantic during which Axis submarines attacked merchant shipping along the east coast of North America. The first “Happy time” was in 1940–41 in the North Atlantic and North Sea. > > The Second Happy Time lasted from January 1942 to about August of that year and involved several German naval operations including Operation Paukenschlag (or Operation Drumbeat) and Operation Neuland. German submariners named it the happy time or the golden time as defense measures were weak and disorganized,[2] and the U-boats were able to inflict massive damage with little risk. **During this period, Axis submarines sank 609 ships totaling 3.1 million tons and the loss of thousands of lives, mainly those of merchant mariners, against a loss of only 22 U-boats. This was roughly one quarter of all shipping sunk by U-boats during the entire Second World War.** Historian Michael Gannon called it “America’s Second Pearl Harbor” and placed the blame for the nation’s failure to respond quickly to the attacks on the inaction of Admiral Ernest J. King, commander-in-chief of the U.S. fleet. > [@The\_Second\_Stone](#): > > When the Russians halted the Germans short of Moscow and its train hubs, it was over and the Russians could then grind the Germans down, even without US help, but it would have taken years longer. The Germans were being ground down by the Russians before they even launched Operation Typhoon at Moscow. [Barbarossa wasn’t cheap for Germany](http://www.history.army.mil/html/books/030/30-12-1/index.html), regardless of its success. > [@](#): > > German casualties stood, as of 1 November, at 686,000 men-20 percent of the 3.4 million, including replacements, committed since June, the equivalent of one regiment in every division. Of half a million motor vehicles on the Eastern Front, a third were worn out or damaged beyond repair; only a third were fully serviceable. Panzer divisions were down to 35 percent of their original tank strengths. The OKH itself > rated the 136 divisions on the Eastern Front as equivalent to no more than 83 full-strength divisions. ---
**Author:** ![SanDiegoTim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/85e7bf/32.png) [@SanDiegoTim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SanDiegoTim)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-they-anticipate-victory-in-wwii/698178/16 "2014-09-11T18:01:21Z")
W/regard to the war in the Pacific, I’m not so sure such anticipation resulted from the Battle of Midway. However, Japan’s loss of its carriers, aircraft, pilots and support personnel, certainly eliminated most, if not all, doubt as to the war’s eventual outcome. ---
**Author:** ![Jim\_s\_Son](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e19adc/32.png) [@Jim\_s\_Son](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jim_s_Son)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-they-anticipate-victory-in-wwii/698178/17 "2014-09-11T23:04:56Z")
I have heard that Branch Rickey traded Johnny Mize, who was 28, four days after Pearl Harbor because he thought the war would last five years (pretty close) and Mize would be washed up when it was over (wrong). Rickey got 3 players and $50,000…people say Rickey got 10% of any cash received in a trade. ---
**Author:** ![AncientHumanoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ancienthumanoid/32/278_2.png) [@AncientHumanoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AncientHumanoid)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-they-anticipate-victory-in-wwii/698178/18 "2014-09-11T23:25:52Z")
OP, you might enjoy this discussion: [Turning Point of WWII](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=196033) ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-they-anticipate-victory-in-wwii/698178/19 "2014-09-11T23:26:22Z")
> [@Jim\_s\_Son](#): > > I have heard that Branch Rickey traded Johnny Mize, who was 28, four days after Pearl Harbor because he thought the war would last five years (pretty close) and Mize would be washed up when it was over (wrong). Rickey got 3 players and $50,000…people say Rickey got 10% of any cash received in a trade. This is the sort of code that Bletchley Park managed to decrypt. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Kobayashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4af34b/32.png) [@Mr.Kobayashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Kobayashi)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2014, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-they-anticipate-victory-in-wwii/698178/20 "2014-09-12T00:27:25Z")
> [@AncientHumanoid](#): > > OP, you might enjoy this discussion: > [Turning Point of WWII](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=196033) Indeed - I was about to reply to it until I saw the date. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-did-they-anticipate-victory-in-wwii/698178.md?page=2)