# When do you think we'll know for sure who gets elected? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 6, 2012, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025 "2012-11-06T00:25:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Rysdad](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/7cd45c/32.png) [@Rysdad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysdad)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/1 "2012-11-06T00:25:06Z")
I’m predicting Nov 20th, after the re-counts and court challenges. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/2 "2012-11-06T00:30:54Z")
I’d say Tuesday night. The critical states are all in the eastern time zone and it usually doesn’t take long to project who won. 2000 was an extreme outlier. If Obama wins the call will be quick, since the situation is basically that Romney has to run the table when it comes to the swing states. Once a swing state is called for Obama (well, except New Hampshire) the matter is decided. But if Romney wins one swing state you then have to wait for the next one and then the next and then the next. So the more a victory it is for Obama, the earlier we will now; the better Romney does, the later we will know. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/3 "2012-11-06T00:47:46Z")
It’ll be Tuesday night, but the networks will decide that the longer into the evening they can promote a ‘horse race’ the better their ratings will be, so even when the conclusion is foregone, they will drag it out for as long as possible. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/4 "2012-11-06T01:22:46Z")
If Ohio is called for Obama it should be over for Romney, even if Obama hasn’t gotten to 270 yet. ---
**Author:** ![Moonchild](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@Moonchild](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moonchild)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/5 "2012-11-06T01:41:21Z")
Just asking: if Romney takes Ohio, could be weeks/months? (I.e. voter/voting booth fraud.) ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/6 "2012-11-06T02:58:23Z")
When Congress opens the Electoral College ballots. That’s sometime in January. PS And possibly not even then… ---
**Author:** ![PandaBear77](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/edb3f5/32.png) [@PandaBear77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PandaBear77)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/7 "2012-11-06T03:00:02Z")
I started a similar thing on my Facebook page tonight. My guess was also 11/20/12. I don’t think we’ll know immediately but I don’t think we’ll have quite the train wreck we had in 2000. I think we’ll know before Thanksgiving. Hopefully. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/8 "2012-11-06T03:05:08Z")
This Fix has a breakdown of [Election Night Viewer’s Guide](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/05/the-fixs-election-night-viewers-guide/). If Romney loses Florida, his chances drop off so much, it’s pretty much over. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/9 "2012-11-06T03:54:00Z")
> [@TokyoBayer](#): > > This Fix has a breakdown of [Election Night Viewer’s Guide](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/05/the-fixs-election-night-viewers-guide/). If Romney loses Florida, his chances drop off so much, it’s pretty much over. Romney won’t lose Florida. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 5:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/10 "2012-11-06T05:31:53Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > Romney won’t lose Florida. Talk to [Nate about that](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/). He’s giving Obama a 53% chance. ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 5:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/11 "2012-11-06T05:41:14Z")
> [@TokyoBayer](#): > > Talk to [Nate about that](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/). He’s giving Obama a 53% chance. I think Florida is one of the states that have a mandatory recount if the margin is 0.5% or less. So Obama may eventually win there, but we won’t know for many days. ---
**Author:** ![Rachael\_Rage](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/71c47a/32.png) [@Rachael\_Rage](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rachael_Rage)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 6:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/12 "2012-11-06T06:10:08Z")
By 11:30PM Eastern Time Tuesday. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 6:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/13 "2012-11-06T06:35:29Z")
> [@TokyoBayer](#): > > Talk to [Nate about that](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/). He’s giving Obama a 53% chance. Yeah, I saw that. I would also like a pony for my birthday but I’m pretty sure I won’t be getting that either. It could happen but no way Obama can count on it. If it happens, call it a night and pop the cork on the champagne. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 6:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/14 "2012-11-06T06:54:38Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Yeah, I saw that. I would also like a pony for my birthday but I’m pretty sure I won’t be getting that either. > > It could happen but no way Obama can count on it. If it happens, call it a night and pop the cork on the champagne. I did use “if” in my post as I don’t claim any more certainty than Nate. Did you read the polls which that is based on? Obama leads in early votes and 50% say they have voted. As you say, if Romney loses FL, it’s a early night. ---
**Author:** ![AHunter3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ahunter3/32/368_2.png) [@AHunter3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AHunter3)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 8:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/15 "2012-11-06T08:09:17Z")
[Here’s](http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/a-viewers-guide-to-who-won-the-election) a nice little predictor from BuzzFeed. As mentioned before, Mitt’s got to run the table, but this breaks it down by when the polls close for each relevant state, and turns it into a freaking flowchart. ---
**Author:** ![etv78](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d78d45/32.png) [@etv78](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/etv78)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 8:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/16 "2012-11-06T08:21:09Z")
Is there a scenario where Romney sweeps the swing states? ---
**Author:** ![panache45](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/panache45/32/64_2.png) [@panache45](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/panache45)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 8:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/17 "2012-11-06T08:39:07Z")
Last time it was 11:00 Eastern Time, the moment the polls closed on the west coast. I expect the same thing this time. ---
**Author:** ![Kozmik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8dc957/32.png) [@Kozmik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kozmik)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 8:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/18 "2012-11-06T08:45:50Z")
> [@panache45](#): > > Last time it was 11:00 Eastern Time, the moment the polls closed on the west coast. I expect the same thing this time. So hopefully we will know _today_. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 9:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/19 "2012-11-06T09:01:46Z")
> [@AHunter3](#): > > [Here’s](http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/a-viewers-guide-to-who-won-the-election) a nice little predictor from BuzzFeed. As mentioned before, Mitt’s got to run the table, but this breaks it down by when the polls close for each relevant state, and turns it into a freaking flowchart. I understand that their chart makes it seem like Mitt’s got to run the table, but it’s just not true. For example, lets pretend Romney gets VA, NC, OH, FL, and NH (that’s 270) while Obama gets PA, MI, WI, CO, IA, NV (that’d be 268). Romney could lose even lose OH and still win if he could take either PA or WI and CO. ---
**Author:** ![bengangmo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@bengangmo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bengangmo)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 9:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/20 "2012-11-06T09:49:54Z")
How come Obama’s chances have been going down today? Earlier on, they were 92.4, then they dropped to 92, now I see they’re down to 91.6… What’s up with that? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025.md?page=2)