# When do you think we'll know for sure who gets elected? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 6, 2012, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025 "2012-11-06T00:25:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 10:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/21 "2012-11-06T10:04:34Z")
Sometimes polls that come out after the first nightly update are added. ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 11:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/22 "2012-11-06T11:52:15Z")
> [@etv78](#): > > Is there a scenario where Romney sweeps the swing states? If there wasn’t, why would we call them swing states? ---
**Author:** ![Crotalus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crotalus/32/41_2.png) [@Crotalus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crotalus)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 12:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/23 "2012-11-06T12:52:15Z")
I think Florida will be too close to call, but that Obama will clearly win Pennsylvania and Ohio, and the networks will call it a 11 PM. Mitt will concede after midnight. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/24 "2012-11-06T18:51:52Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I understand that their chart makes it seem like Mitt’s got to run the table, but it’s just not true. For example, lets pretend Romney gets VA, NC, OH, FL, and NH (that’s 270) while Obama gets PA, MI, WI, CO, IA, NV (that’d be 268). Romney could lose even lose OH and still win if he could take either PA or WI and CO. Scenario 1 is a possibility, but Scenario 2 is ridiculously unlikely. If Romney doesn’t win Ohio, he’s even less likely to win Pennsylvania OR both Wisconsin and Colorado. The state results are not wholly independent events. Romney basically has to run the table in the major swing states that are gonna come up early - Florida, Virginia, and Ohio, and in your scneario he also has to pick off NEw Hampshire. (North Carolina is a given if he wins Virginia.) Then he has to win more. But if that happens, it’s because he’s running the table. It’s exceedingly unlikely Romney would take all those states but somehow lose Colorado, and he’d probably win Iowa too. A poll bias of that magnitude would flip most or all of them. (Not Pennsylvania, which isn’t a swing state.) ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/25 "2012-11-06T18:58:19Z")
> [@Crotalus](#): > > I think Florida will be too close to call, but that Obama will clearly win Pennsylvania and Ohio, and the networks will call it a 11 PM. Mitt will concede after midnight. Things in Ohio may be severely FUBAR, and we won’t have an actual result until the last lawyer dies of old age. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 6:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/26 "2012-11-07T06:42:58Z")
So who picked 11:30 PM EDT (or thereabouts) when CNN called it? ---
**Author:** ![DianaG](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/7ab992/32.png) [@DianaG](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DianaG)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 7:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/27 "2012-11-07T07:42:46Z")
Honestly, I was floored and verklempt. 11:30 on election night, and we were done here. Well played, America! ---
**Author:** ![Rachael\_Rage](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/71c47a/32.png) [@Rachael\_Rage](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rachael_Rage)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/28 "2012-11-09T17:40:14Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > So who picked 11:30 PM EDT (or thereabouts) when CNN called it? I said “by 11:30PM” Eastern Time, and I think one or two people ahead of me said it would be fairly early in the evening. 🆒 I never had any doubt about the outcome, really. Unless serious fraud came into play in the battleground states. ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/29 "2012-11-09T23:07:49Z")
Notice that the President did win Florida. So much for the probability of ponies on birthdays. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2012, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/30 "2012-11-12T17:27:58Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > Romney won’t lose Florida. I’d just like to close this out by publicly stating that I was incorrect…and surprised. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2012, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025/31 "2012-11-12T18:00:48Z")
> [@DSYoungEsq](#): > > Notice that the President did win Florida. So much for the probability of ponies on birthdays. 😃 I’m already shopping for a stable nearby. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-do-you-think-well-know-for-sure-who-gets-elected/640025.md?page=1)